Dynamic stackelberg game with risk-averse players: optimal risk-sharing under asymmetric information

The objective of this paper is to clarify the interactive nature of the leader-follower relationship when both players are endogenously risk-averse. The analysis is placed in the context of a dynamic closed-loop Stackelberg game with private information. The case of a risk-neutral leader, very often discussed in the literature, is only a borderline possibility in the present study. Each player in the game is characterized by a risk-averse type which is unknown to his opponent. The goal of the leader is to implement an optimal incentive compatible risk-sharing contract. The proposed approach provides a qualitative analysis of adaptive risk behavior profiles for asymmetrically informed players in the context of dynamic strategic interactions modelled as incentive Stackelberg games.

Nash equilibrium strategies in discrete-time finite-horizon dynamic games with risk-and effort-averse players

The objective of this paper is to re-examine the risk-and effort attitude in the context of strategic dynamic interactions stated as a discrete-time finite-horizon Nash game. The analysis is based on the assumption that players are endogenously risk-and effort-averse. Each player is characterized by distinct risk-and effort-aversion types that are unknown to his opponent. The goal of the game is the optimal risk-and effort-sharing between the players. It generally depends on the individual strategies adopted and, implicitly, on the the players' types or characteristics.

On Cooperative solutions of a generalized assignment game: limit theorems to the set of competitive equilibria

We study two cooperative solutions of a market with indivisible goods modeled as a generalized assignment game: Set-wise stability and Core. We first establish that the Set-wise stable set is contained in the Core and it contains the non-empty set of competitive equilibrium payoffs. We then state and prove three limit results for replicated markets. First, the sequence of Cores of replicated markets converges to the set of competitive equilibrium payoffs when the number of replicas tends to infinity. Second, the Set-wise stable set of a two-fold replicated market already coincides with the set of competitive equilibrium payoffs. Third, for any number of replicas there is a market with a Core payoff that is not a competitive equilibrium payoff.

In vitro growth of human urinary tract smooth muscle cells on laminin and collagen type I-coated membranes under static and dynamic conditions.

This study investigates in vitro growth of human urinary tract smooth muscle cells under static conditions and mechanical stimulation. The cells were cultured on collagen type I- and laminin-coated silicon membranes. Using a Flexcell device for mechanical stimulation, a cyclic strain of 0-20% was applied in a strain-stress-time model (stretch, 104 min relaxation, 15 s), imitating physiological bladder filling and voiding. Cell proliferation and alpha-actin, calponin, and caldesmon phenotype marker expression were analyzed. Nonstretched cells showed significant better growth on laminin during the first 8 days, thereafter becoming comparable to cells grown on collagen type I. Cyclic strain significantly reduced cell growth on both surfaces; however, better growth was observed on laminin. Neither the type of surface nor mechanical stimulation influenced the expression pattern of phenotype markers; alpha-actin was predominantly expressed. Coating with the extracellular matrix protein laminin improved in vitro growth of human urinary tract smooth muscle cells.

Dynamic of population-dynamics in a medically important snail species Lymnaea (Radix) Luteola (Lamarck)

The life-cycle parameters of the snail Lymnaea (Radix) luteola and the factors influencing the same have been studied under laboratory conditions. Ins each month, from July 1990 to June 1991, a batch of 100 zero-day old individual were considered for studies. The snails of April batch survived for 19.42 days while those in December batch survived for 87.45 days. The May batch individual though survived for 65.67 days gained maximum shell size (15.84 mm in length) and body weight (419.87 mg). All individuals of April batch died prior to attainment of sexual maturity. In the remaining 11 batches the snails became sexually mature between 32 and 53 days. At this stage, they were with varying shell lengths, 9.3 mm to 13,11 mm in respect to batches. The reproduction period varied from 1-67 days. An individual laid, on an average, 0,25 (March batch) to 443.67 (May batch) eggs in its life-span. A batch of such snails would leave 24312, 22520, 720268, 80408, 76067, 418165, 214, 9202, 0, 0, 2459386 and 127894 individuals at the end of 352nd day. Since the environmental conditions were almost similar the 'dynamic' of population dynamics seems to be involved with the 'strain' of the snail individuals of the batches concerned.

Fluorescence of the bladder washout fluid following cystoscopy: a preliminary study

During fluorescence cystoscopy, it is observed that the acquired images are sometimes blurred by a greenish background originating from the bladder washout fluid. Several fluorophores are involved in this overall liquid fluorescence, and their exact origin and relative contributions remain unknown. In this study, the bladder washout fluid is sampled at different times during fluorescence cystoscopy examinations. In total, 32 samples from 12 patients are analyzed with a spectrofluorimeter (excitation range: 350-445 nm, emission range 380-700 nm). This study shows clearly that the position of the fluorescence peaks (excitation/emission wavelengths: 450/525 nm, 405/625 nm) and shoulder (440/525 nm) is reproducible between different patients. It also suggests that an excitation at wavelengths higher than 400 nm helps to suppress this solution background fluorescence. Additionally, the pH of the solution seems to influence the position of the fluorescence peaks, and this suggests that changing the pH of the examination liquid could help in avoiding the greenish background.

Dynamic calibration of our sense of time.

An accurate sense of time contributes to functions ranging from the perception and anticipation of sensory events to the production of coordinated movements. However, accumulating evidence demonstrates that time perception is subject to strong illusory distortion. In two experiments, we investigated whether the subjective speed of temporal perception is dependent on our visual environment. By presenting human observers with speed-altered movies of a crowded street scene, we modulated performance on subsequent production of "20s" elapsed intervals. Our results indicate that one's visual environment significantly contributes to calibrating our sense of time, independently of any modulation of arousal. This plasticity generates an assay for the integrity of our sense of time and its rehabilitation in clinical pathologies.

Understanding the low-temperature limitations to forest growth through calibration of a forest dynamics model with tree-ring data

The sensitivity of altitudinal and latitudinal tree-line ecotones to climate change, particularly that of temperature, has received much attention. To improve our understanding of the factors affecting tree-line position, we used the spatially explicit dynamic forest model TreeMig. Although well-suited because of its landscape dynamics functions, TreeMig features a parabolic temperature growth response curve, which has recently been questioned. and the species parameters are not specifically calibrated for cold temperatures. Our main goals were to improve the theoretical basis of the temperature growth response curve in the model and develop a method for deriving that curve's parameters from tree-ring data. We replaced the parabola with an asymptotic curve, calibrated for the main species at the subalpine (Swiss Alps: Pinus cembra, Larix decidua, Picea abies) and boreal (Fennoscandia: Pinus sylvestris, Betula pubescens, P. abies) tree-lines. After fitting new parameters, the growth curve matched observed tree-ring widths better. For the subalpine species, the minimum degree-day sum allowing, growth (kDDMin) was lowered by around 100 degree-days; in the case of Larix, the maximum potential ring-width was increased to 5.19 mm. At the boreal tree-line, the kDDMin for P. sylvestris was lowered by 210 degree-days and its maximum ring-width increased to 2.943 mm; for Betula (new in the model) kDDMin was set to 325 degree-days and the maximum ring-width to 2.51 mm; the values from the only boreal sample site for Picea were similar to the subalpine ones, so the same parameters were used. However, adjusting the growth response alone did not improve the model's output concerning species' distributions and their relative importance at tree-line. Minimum winter temperature (MinWiT, mean of the coldest winter month), which controls seedling establishment in TreeMig, proved more important for determining distribution. Picea, P. sylvestris and Betula did not previously have minimum winter temperature limits, so these values were set to the 95th percentile of each species' coldest MinWiT site (respectively -7, -11, -13). In a case study for the Alps, the original and newly calibrated versions of TreeMig were compared with biomass data from the National Forest Inventor), (NFI). Both models gave similar, reasonably realistic results. In conclusion, this method of deriving temperature responses from tree-rings works well. However, regeneration and its underlying factors seem more important for controlling species' distributions than previously thought. More research on regeneration ecology, especially at the upper limit of forests. is needed to improve predictions of tree-line responses to climate change further.

A stable and 40Ar/39Ar isotope study of a major thrust in the Helvetic nappes (Swiss Alps) - Evidence for fluid-flow and constraints on nappe kinematics

Stable isotope and Ar-40/Ar-39 measurements,were made on samples associated with a major tectonic discontinuity in the Helvetic Alps, the basal thrust of the Diablerets nappe (external zone of the Alpine Belt) in order to determine both the importance of fluids in this thrust zone and the timing of thrusting. A systematic decrease in the delta(18)O values (up to 6 parts per thousand) of calcite, quartz, and white mica exists within a 10- to 70-m-wide zone over a distance of 37 km along the thrust, and they become more pronounced toward the root of the nappe. A similar decrease in the delta(13)C values of calcite is observed only in the deepest sections (up to 3 parts per thousand). The delta D-SMOW (SMOW = standard mean ocean water) values of white mica are -54 parts per thousand +/- 8 parts per thousand (n = 22) and are independent of the distance from the thrust. These variations are interpreted to reflect syntectonic solution reprecipitation during fluid passage along the thrust. The calculated delta(18)O and delta D values (versus SMOW) for the fluid in equilibrium with the analyzed minerals is 12 parts per thousand to 16 parts per thousand and -30 parts per thousand to +5 parts per thousand, respectively, for assumed temperatures of 250 to 450 degrees C. The isotopic and structural data are consistent with fluids derived from the deep-seated roots of the Helvetic nappes where large volumes of Mesozoic sediments were metamorphosed to the amphibolite facies, It is suggested that connate and metamorphic waters, overpressured by rapid tectonic burial in a subductive system escaped by upward infiltration along moderately dipping pathways until they reached the main shear zone at the base of the moving pile, where they were channeled toward the surface, This model also explains the mechanism by which large amounts of fluid were removed from the Mesozoic sediments during Alpine metamorphism. White mica Ar-49/Ar-39 ages vary from 27 Ma far from the Diablerets thrust to 15 Ma along the thrust. An older component is observed in micas far from the thrust, interpreted as a detrital signature, and indicates that regional metamorphic temperatures were less than about 350 degrees C. The;plateau and near plateau ages nearest the thrust are consistent with either neocrystallization of white mica or argon loss by recrystallization during thrusting, which may have been enhanced in the zones of highest fluid flow. The 15 Ma Ar-40/Ar-39 age plateau measured on white mica sampled exactly on the thrust surface dates the end of both fluid flow and tectonic transport.

Producing on-line ultrapure dialysis fluid.

The process of on-line generation of ultrapure dialysis fluid is a core prerequisite for the safe execution of modern renal replacement therapies such as on-line hemodiafiltration and high-flux hemodialysis. In these extracorporeal treatments with variable degrees of convection, significant volumes of plasma water are removed and replaced with dialysis fluid, which must occur without causing harm to the patient. Historically, on-line generation of sterile and pyrogen-free physiological substitution fluid by the process of membrane ultrafiltration of fresh dialysis fluid has its origin in hemofiltration, a purely convective therapy. Development of this and later therapies is described in the historical context of a successful effort over decades to overcome the above formidable challenge, which was provided jointly by pioneering clinical investigators and a resourceful dialysis industry.

Encoding dysfunctions in a dynamic-static paradigm for visuospatial working memory in first-episode psychosis patients: a 2-year follow-up study.

Aim: To investigate static and dynamic visuospatial working memory (VSWM) processes in first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients and explore the validity of such measures as specific trait markers of schizophrenia. Methods: Twenty FEP patients and 20 age-, sex-, laterality- and education-matched controls carried out a dynamic and static VSWM paradigm. At 2-year follow up 13 patients met Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (of Mental Health Disorders) - Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) criteria for schizophrenia, 1 for bipolar disorder, 1 for brief psychotic episode and 5 for schizotypal personality disorder. Results: Compared with controls, the 20 FEP patients showed severe impairment in the dynamic VSWM condition but much less impairment in the static condition. No specific bias in stimulus selection was detected in the two tasks. Two-year follow-up evaluations suggested poorer baseline scores on the dynamic task clearly differentiated the 13 FEP patients who developed schizophrenia from the seven who did not. Conclusions: Results suggest deficits in VSWM in FEP patients. Specific exploratory analyses further suggest that deficit in monitoring-manipulation VSWM processes, especially involved in our dynamic VSWM task, can be a reliable marker of schizophrenia.

Signaling in Dynamic Contests: Some Impossibility Results

General signaling results in dynamic Tullock contests have been missing for long. The reason is the tractability of the problems. In this paper, an uninformed contestant with valuation vx competes against an informed opponent with valuation, either high vh or low vl. We show that; (i) When the hierarchy of valuations is vh ≥ vx ≥ vl, there is no pooling. Sandbagging is too costly for the high type. (ii) When the order of valuations is vx ≥ vh ≥ vl, there is no separation if vh and vl are close. Sandbagging is cheap due to the proximity of valuations. However, if vh and vx are close, there is no pooling. First period cost of pooling is high. (iii) For valuations satisfying vh ≥ vl ≥ vx, there is no separation if vh and vl are close. Bluffing in the first period is cheap for the low valuation type. Conversely, if vx and vl are close there is no pooling. Bluffing in the first stage is too costly. JEL: C72, C73, D44, D82. KEYWORDS: Signaling, Dynamic Contests, Non-existence, Sandbag Pooling, Bluff Pooling, Separating

Mycoplasma hominis in mid-trimester amniotic fluid : relation to pregnangy outcome

RESUME Introduction : Les naissances prématurées compliquent 6-10 % des grossesses dans les pays industrialisés et contribuent de façon notable aux taux de mortalité périnatale et de morbidité néonatale. Il a été démontré que la colonisation bactérienne du liquide amniotique joue un rôle dans l'étiologie des accouchements prématurés spontanés et des ruptures prématurées des membranes. Le but de ce travail était d'évaluer la présence de Mycoplasma hominis dans le liquide amniotique prélevé au 2eme trimestre de grossesse chez des patientes asymptomatiques et de déterminer son association avec une issue défavorable de la grossesse. Matériels et méthodes : Les échantillons de liquide amniotique de 456 patientes ayant subi une amniocentèse trans-abdominale entre les 15eme et I7eme semaines de grossesse pour diverses indications ont été testés par PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) afin d'identifier Mycoplasma hominis. Les produits ainsi amplifiés étaient ensuite détectés par ELISA (Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay). Les données cliniques étaient obtenues après l'accouchement. Résultats : Mycoplasma hominis a été identifié dans 29 (6,4%) des échantillons de liquide amniotique. Le taux de menace d'accouchement prématuré chez les patientes positives pour Mycoplasma hominis (14,3%) était plus élevé que chez les patientes négatives (3,3 %) (p=0,01). De même, les naissances prématurées spontanées avec membranes intactes étaient plus fréquentes chez les patientes positives (10,7%) que chez les patientes négatives (1,9 %) (p=0,02). Le taux de menace d'accouchement prématuré lors d'une grossesse antérieure était plus de trois fois plus élevé chez les patientes positives, cependant ce résultat n'était pas statistiquement significatif. Finalement, la présence du mycoplasme n'était pas corrélée à la gestose, au retard de croissance intra-utérin ou aux anomalies chromosomiques foetales. Conclusions : Les résultats montrent que la présence de Mycoplasma hominis dans le liquide amniotique prélevé entre les 15eme et I7eme semaines d' aménorrhée chez des patientes asymptomatiques est associée à un taux plus élevé de menace d'accouchement prématuré et de naissances prématurées spontanées. La détection de ce microorganisme au 2eme trimestre de la grossesse peut donc identifier les patientes à risque de menace d'accouchement et de naissance prématurées. Abstract Objective: The relationship between detection of Mycoplasma hominis in mid-trimester amniotic fluid and subsequent pregnancy outcome was investigated. Study design: Amniotic fluids from 456 women of European background who underwent a transabdominal amniocentesis at weeks 15-17 of pregnancy were tested for M. hominis by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The amplicons were hybridized to an internal probe and detected by ELISA. Pregnancy outcomes and clinical data were subsequently obtained. Results: M. hominis were identified in 29 (6.4%) of the amniotic fluids. The rate of preterm labor in women positive for M. hominis (14.3%) was higher than in the negative women (3.3%) (p = 0.01). Similarly, a spontaneous preterm birth with intact membranes occurred in 10.7% of the M. hominis-posltive women as opposed to only 1.9% of the negative women (p = 0.02). The presence of this mycoplasma was not correlated with fetal chromosomal aberrations, intrauterine growth restriction or preeclampsia. Conclusions: Detection of M. hominis in second-trimester amniotic fluids can identify women at increased risk for subsequent preterm labor and delivery.

Rapid detection of enterovirus in cerebrospinal fluid by a fully-automated PCR assay is associated with improved management of aseptic meningitis in adult patients.

BACKGROUND: Enterovirus (EV) is the most frequent cause of aseptic meningitis (AM). Lack of microbiological documentation results in unnecessary antimicrobial therapy and hospitalization. OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of rapid EV detection in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) by a fully-automated PCR (GeneXpert EV assay, GXEA) on the management of AM. STUDY DESIGN: Observational study in adult patients with AM. Three groups were analyzed according to EV documentation in CSF: group A=no PCR or negative PCR (n=17), group B=positive real-time PCR (n=20), and group C=positive GXEA (n=22). Clinical, laboratory and health-care costs data were compared. RESULTS: Clinical characteristics were similar in the 3 groups. Median turn-around time of EV PCR decreased from 60h (IQR (interquartile range) 44-87) in group B to 5h (IQR 4-11) in group C (p<0.0001). Median duration of antibiotics was 1 (IQR 0-6), 1 (0-1.9), and 0.5 days (single dose) in groups A, B, and C, respectively (p<0.001). Median length of hospitalization was 4 days (2.5-7.5), 2 (1-3.7), and 0.5 (0.3-0.7), respectively (p<0.001). Median hospitalization costs were $5458 (2676-6274) in group A, $2796 (2062-5726) in group B, and $921 (765-1230) in group C (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Rapid EV detection in CSF by a fully-automated PCR improves management of AM by significantly reducing antibiotic use, hospitalization length and costs.

Morphometric Analysis of McCoy Cells Inoculated with Cerebrospinal Fluid from Patients with Rabies

To demonstrate the potential of McCoy cells for the isolation of rabies virus from the cerebrospinal (CSF) fluid of a patient with a diagnosis of rabies, McCoy cells were inoculated with CSF from a patient with a clinical diagnosis of rabies and investigated in terms of morphometric aspect using the JAVA analysis system for the quantification of the increased size of infected cells compared to noninfected cells. The cells were also examined in terms of specific staining for the diagnosis of rabies by the method of Sellers for the observation of intracytoplasmic inclusions and by specific immunofluorescence staining for rabies virus. Infected cells showed changes in cell permeability and morphologic modifications which differed significantly compared to normal cells (P<0.001) when analyzed by the Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Intense activity of the endoplasmic reticulum was also observed, as indicated by the presence of intracytoplasmic inclusions visualized by specific staining. The present study demonstrated the isolation of rabies virus from the CSF of a patient with rabies, showing that McCoy cells can be used for the laboratory diagnosis of patients suspected to have rabies.