Banks, government bonds, and default: what do the data say?

We use data from Bankscope to analyze the holdings of public bonds by over 18,000 banks located in 185 countries and the role of these bonds in 18 sovereign debt crises over the period 1998-2012. We find that: (i) banks hold a sizeable share of their assets in government bonds (about 9% on average), particularly in less financially developed countries; (ii) during sovereign crises, banks on average increase their bondholdings by 1% of their assets, but this increase is concentrated among larger and more profitable banks, and; (iii) the correlation between a bank's holdings of public bonds and its future loans is positive in normal times, but turns negative during defaults. A 10% increase in bank bond-holdings during default is associated with a 3.2% reduction in future loans, and bonds bought in normal times account for 75% of this effect. Our results are consistent with the view that there is a liquidity benefit for banks to hold public bonds in normal times, which is critical for understanding bank fragility during sovereign crises.

Vertical Infrastructure Program Plan of Action, December 17, 2008

In order to promote the importance of our assets and to ensure continued and increasing funding for major maintenance and routine maintenance, in 2008 we intend to, annually update a list of facts relating to state buildings and the maintenance needs for those buildings. This information will support the case for increased and permanent funding

Estudi estratègic del coblisme com a bé cultural

Aquest treball de final de carrera tracta sobre l’aplicació de les modernes tècniques de reflexió estratègica aplicades al sector de la cultura popular catalana, concretament la cultura popular catalana que engloba les manifestacions on el vincle comú és la formació musical pròpia: la cobla. Aprofitar aquest sector, a priori tant complex i tant allunyat en principi del món d’estratègia d’empresa com aquest, és l’excusa per veure el comportament d’aquestes eines i teories, i comprovar-ne la seva eficàcia i adaptabilitat als diferents casos de la realitat, a més de poder treballar un tema tant nou com la valoració d’intangibles. A la vegada, es produeix una síntesi de treballs orientats a l’organització d’entitats sense ànim de lucre existents en la bibliografia especialitzada, i que han tingut un inexistent ressò pràctic. Això pot ser un contrasentit en un país on l’associacionisme és tan arrelat i un dels pilars socials que ens vertebren i diferencien. En el cas de la música per a cobla, especialment destacable en un moment molt important i crític per estar en un temps de transició social molt fort. També, cal destacar vivament que té una sèrie de valors afegits de qualitat i complexitat que la situen en un interessant camí entre la cultura popular i les propostes de caràcter més comercial, en unes condicions actuals de gran desconeixement social. Les vinculacions entre estratègia, innovació, responsabilitat social i cultura del coneixement, donen a aquest treball un fort caràcter actual i adaptat a la realitat en les consideracions sobre el management en general.

Aplicatiu per gestionar la informació administrativa, tècnica i comptable per una empresa constructora

Les tendencies del mercat actual i futur obliguen a les empreses a ser cada vegada més competitives. Tota empresa que desitgi competir en el mercat actual ha de considerar la informació com un dels seus principals actius. Per aquesta raó, és necessari que l’empresa disposi dels sistemes d’informació adequats per ser gestionada. En les pimes ( petites i mitjanes empreses ), i en la majoria dels casos, la seva informació es troba repartida en diversos aplicatius informàtifcs. Això comporta principalment una duplicitat de dades, costos de manteniment i possibles errades en la informació. Dins del sector de les pimes, es troben empreses contructores d’un volum petit o mig, les quals enmagatzemen molta informació tècnica i de planificació per desemvolupar els seus projectes. Aquesta necessitat els hi suposa, tenir un aplicatiu eficient per la gestió i seguiment de la producció de les seves tasques i per altra banda l’aplicatiu necessari com qualsevol pime a nivell administratiu i comptable. L’objectiu principal d’aquest treball és generar un aplicatiu que integri la informació administrativa, comptable i tècnica per una empresa constructora. Amb l’assoliment d’aquest objectiu l’empresa constructora guanya temps en l’entrada i accés a les dades, evita la seva duplicitat i redueix el seu manteniment. En resum, redueix els costos de l’empresa i augmenta la seva seguretat en la informació. Un el mercat, existeixen aplicatius anomenats ERP ( Enterprise resource planning o sistemes de planificació de recursos ) els quals la seva gran virtud es la integració de les dades. Aprofitant aquests aplicatius i seleccionant-ne el més adequat, s’ha generat la part de gestió i planificació necessària per l’empresa constructora integrant-la i personalitzant-la en els processos existents de l’aplicació ( comptabilitat, ventes, compres, recursos humans, magatzems, etc… ) Entre les conclusions més rellevants obtingudes en aquest treball, voldriem destacar la millora i reducció d’entrada, accés i manteniment de la informació, l’històric que proporciona l’eina i per tan la millora de la gestío i planificació de l’empresa.

Supplement Information to the August 2008 Infrastructure and Transportation Task Force Report, August 2008

The Rebuild Iowa Infrastructure and Transportation Task Force is acutely aware of the critical role infrastructure plays in Iowa’s communities, the lives of the residents, and the economic well-being of the state. With encouragement to the Rebuild Iowa Advisory Commission (RIAC) for its consideration of great need for infrastructure and transportation repairs, the Task Force provides its assessment and recommendations. As the RIAC fulfills its obligations to guide the recovery and reconstruction in Iowa, infrastructure and transportation must be recognized for its impact on all Iowans. The tornadoes, storms, and floods were devastating to infrastructure and transportation systems across the state. The damage did not distinguish between privately-owned and public assets. The significance of the damage emerges further with the magnitude of the damage estimates. Infrastructure includes components that some might initially overlook, such as communication systems, landfills, and water treatment. The miles of damaged roads and bridges are more evident to many Iowans. Given the reliance on infrastructure systems, many repairs are already underway, though gaps have emerged in the funding for repairs to certain infrastructure systems. Supplement Information to the August 2008

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Un modelo de riesgo de crédito basado en opciones compuestas con barrera. Aplicación al mercado continuo español

In this work the valuation methodology of compound option written on a downand-out call option, developed by Ericsson and Reneby (2003), has been applied to deduce a credit risk model. It is supposed that the firm has a debt structure with two maturity dates and that the credit event takes place when the assets firm value falls under a determined level called barrier. An empirical application of the model for 105 firms of Spanish continuous market is carried out. For each one of them its value in the date of analysis, the volatility and the critical value are obtained and from these, the default probability to short and long-term and the implicit probability in the two previous probabilities are deduced. The results are compared with the ones obtained from the Geskemodel (1977).

Three essays in financial economics: asset pricing, optimal portfolio selection and financial integration

Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.

Three essays in risk management in financial institutions

The choice to adopt risk-sensitive measurement approaches for operational risks: the case of Advanced Measurement Approach under Basel II New Capital Accord This paper investigates the choice of the operational risk approach under Basel II requirements and whether the adoption of advanced risk measurement approaches allows banks to save capital. Among the three possible approaches for operational risk measurement, the Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) is the most sophisticated and requires the use of historical loss data, the application of statistical tools, and the engagement of a highly qualified staff. Our results provide evidence that the adoption of AMA is contingent on the availability of bank resources and prior experience in risk-sensitive operational risk measurement practices. Moreover, banks that choose AMA exhibit low requirements for capital and, as a result might gain a competitive advantage compared to banks that opt for less sophisticated approaches. - Internal Risk Controls and their Impact on Bank Solvency Recent cases in financial sector showed the importance of risk management controls on risk taking and firm performance. Despite advances in the design and implementation of risk management mechanisms, there is little research on their impact on behavior and performance of firms. Based on data from a sample of 88 banks covering the period between 2004 and 2010, we provide evidence that internal risk controls impact the solvency of banks. In addition, our results show that the level of internal risk controls leads to a higher degree of solvency in banks with a major shareholder in contrast to widely-held banks. However, the relationship between internal risk controls and bank solvency is negatively affected by BHC growth strategies and external restrictions on bank activities, while the higher regulatory requirements for bank capital moderates positively this relationship. - The Impact of the Sophistication of Risk Measurement Approaches under Basel II on Bank Holding Companies Value Previous research showed the importance of external regulation on banks' behavior. Some inefficient standards may accentuate risk-taking in banks and provoke a financial crisis. Despite the growing literature on the potential effects of Basel II rules, there is little empirical research on the efficiency of risk-sensitive capital measurement approaches and their impact on bank profitability and market valuation. Based on data from a sample of 66 banks covering the period between 2008 and 2010, we provide evidence that prudential ratios computed under Basel II standards predict the value of banks. However, this relation is contingent on the degree of sophistication of risk measurement approaches that banks apply. Capital ratios are effective in predicting bank market valuation when banks adopt the advanced approaches to compute the value of their risk-weighted assets.

Iowa Public Employees’ Retirement System 2001-2005 Experience Study, June 2006

The purpose of an actuarial valuation is to provide a timely best estimate of the ultimate costs of a retirement system. Actuarial valuations of IPERS are prepared annually to determine whether the statutory contribution rate will be sufficient to fund the System on an actuarial basis, i.e. the current assets plus future contributions, along with investment earnings will be sufficient to provide the benefits promised by the System to current members. The valuation requires the use of certain assumptions with respect to the occurrence of future events, such as rates of death, termination of employment, retirement age and salary changes to estimate the obligations of the System. The basic purpose of an experience study is to determine whether the actuarial assumptions currently in use are accurately predicting actual emerging experience. This information, along with the professional judgment of System personnel and advisors, is used to evaluate the appropriateness of continued use of the current actuarial assumptions. When analyzing experience and assumptions, it is important to realize that actual experience is reported short term while assumptions are intended to be long term estimates of experience.

Highway Maintenance Concept Vehicle, June 2002

This report documents Phase IV of the Highway Maintenance Concept Vehicle (HMCV) project, a pooled fund study sponsored by the Departments of Transportation of Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This report provides the background, including a brief history of the earlier phases of the project, a systems overview, and descriptions of the research conducted in Phase IV. Finally, the report provides conclusions and recommendations for future research. Background The goal of the Highway Maintenance Concept Vehicle Pooled Fund Study is to provide travelers with the level of service defined by policy during the winter season at the least cost to taxpayers. This goal is to be accomplished by using information regarding actual road conditions to facilitate and adjust snow and ice control activities. The approach used in this study was to bring technology applications from other industries to the highway maintenance vehicle. This approach is evolutionary in that as emerging technologies and applications are found to be acceptable to the pooled fund states and as they appear that to have potential for supporting the study goals they become candidates for our research. The objective of Phase IV is to: Conduct limited deployment of selected technologies from Phase III by equipping a vehicle with proven advanced technologies and creating a mobile test laboratory for collecting road weather data. The research quickly pointed out that investments in winter storm maintenance assets must be based on benefit/cost analysis and related to improving level of service. For example, Iowa has estimated the average cost of fighting a winter storm to be about $60,000 to $70,000 per hour typically. The maintenance concept vehicle will have advanced technology equipment capable of applying precisely the correct amount of material, accurately tailored to the existing and predicted pavement conditions. Hence, a state using advanced technology could expect to have a noticeable impact on the average time taken to establish the winter driving service level. If the concept vehicle and data produced by the vehicle are used to support decision-making leading to reducing material usage and the average time by one hour, a reasonable benefit/cost will result. Data from the friction meter can be used to monitor and adjust snow and ice control activities and inform travelers of pavement surface conditions. Therefore, final selection of successfully performing technologies will be based on the foundation statements and criteria developed by the study team.

Preparation, maintenance, and use of serum-free aggregating brain cell cultures.

Serum-free aggregating brain cell cultures are free-floating three-dimensional primary cell cultures able to reconstitute spontaneously a histotypic brain architecture to reproduce critical steps of brain development and to reach a high level of structural and functional maturity. This culture system offers, therefore, a unique model for neurotoxicity testing both during the development and at advanced cellular differentiation, and the high number of aggregates available combined with the excellent reproducibility of the cultures facilitates routine test procedures. This chapter presents a detailed description of the preparation, maintenance, and use of these cultures for neurotoxicity studies and a comparison of the developmental characteristics between cultures derived from the telencephalon and cultures derived from the whole brain. For culture preparation, mechanically dissociated embryonic brain tissue is used. The initial cell suspension, composed of neural stem cells, neural progenitor cells, immature postmitotic neurons, glioblasts, and microglial cells, is kept in a serum-free, chemically defined medium under continuous gyratory agitation. Spherical aggregates form spontaneously and are maintained in suspension culture for several weeks. Within the aggregates, the cells rearrange and mature, reproducing critical morphogenic events, such as migration, proliferation, differentiation, synaptogenesis, and myelination. For experimentation, replicate cultures are prepared by the randomization of aggregates from several original flasks. The high yield and reproducibility of the cultures enable multiparametric endpoint analyses, including "omics" approaches.

Development of a Traffic Control Devices and Pavement Markings Manual for Iowa's Cities and Counties with a Survery of Common Practices, April 2001

Transportation agencies in Iowa are responsible for a significant public investment with the installation and maintenance of traffic control devices and pavement markings. Included in this investment are thousands of signs and other inventory items, equipment, facilities, and staff. The proper application of traffic control devices and pavement markings is critical to public safety on streets and highways, and local governments have a prescribed responsibility under the Code of Iowa to properly manage these assets. This research report addresses current traffic control and pavement marking application, maintenance, and management in Iowa.