Who has really paid for the Reconstruction of East Germany? Expected and Realized Returns on Real Estate Investments in East and West Germany in the 1990s

We evaluate the profitability of investments in residential property in Germany after unification with a focus on the comparison of East and West Germany. Calculations are carried out for (1) the after-tax return an investor might have expected at the beginning of the 1990s, and (2) the after-tax return that has been realized ten years after. We compare a set of statistical data for investments in fifty major cities by using complete financial budgeting. The results show that tax subsidies could not always protect investors from losing money, but they have boosted realized returns after tax considerably. Therefore, it was indeed the taxpayers, not the investors, who have borne the cost of reconstructing East Germany.

A chrysophyte stomatocyst-based reconstruction of cold-season air temperature from Alpine Lake Silvaplana (AD 1500–2003); methods and concepts for quantitative inferences

Relatively little is known about past cold-season temperature variability in high-Alpine regions because of a lack of natural cold-season temperature proxies as well as under-representation of high-altitude sites in meteorological, early-instrumental and documentary data sources. Recent studies have shown that chrysophyte stomatocysts, or simply cysts (sub-fossil algal remains of Chrysophyceae and Synurophyceae), are among the very few natural proxies that can be used to reconstruct cold-season temperatures. This study presents a quantitative, high-resolution (5-year), cold-season (Oct–May) temperature reconstruction based on sub-fossil chrysophyte stomatocysts in the annually laminated (varved) sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, SE Switzerland (1,789 m a.s.l.), since AD 1500. We first explore the method used to translate an ecologically meaningful variable based on a biological proxy into a simple climate variable. A transfer function was applied to reconstruct the ‘date of spring mixing’ from cyst assemblages. Next, statistical regression models were tested to convert the reconstructed ‘dates of spring mixing’ into cold-season surface air temperatures with associated errors. The strengths and weaknesses of this approach are thoroughly tested. One much-debated, basic assumption for reconstructions (‘stationarity’), which states that only the environmental variable of interest has influenced cyst assemblages and the influence of confounding variables is negligible over time, is addressed in detail. Our inferences show that past cold-season air-temperature fluctuations were substantial and larger than those of other temperature reconstructions for Europe and the Alpine region. Interestingly, in this study, recent cold-season temperatures only just exceed those of previous, multi-decadal warm phases since AD 1500. These findings highlight the importance of local studies to assess natural climate variability at high altitudes.

A 950 yr temperature reconstruction from Duckhole Lake, southern Tasmania, Australia

A lack of quantitative high resolution paleoclimate data from the Southern Hemisphere limits the ability to examine current trends within the context of long-term natural climate variability. This study presents a temperature reconstruction for southern Tasmania based on analyses of a sediment core from Duckhole Lake (43.365°S, 146.875°E). The relationship between non-destructive whole core scanning reflectance spectroscopy measurements in the visible spectrum (380–730 nm) and the instrumental temperature record (ad 1911–2000) was used to develop a calibration-in-time reflectance spectroscopy-based temperature model. Results showed that a trough in reflectance from 650 to 700 nm, which represents chlorophyll and its derivatives, was significantly correlated to annual mean temperature. A calibration model was developed (R = 0.56, p auto < 0.05, root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) = 0.21°C, five-year filtered data, calibration period 1911–2000) and applied down-core to reconstruct annual mean temperatures in southern Tasmania over the last c. 950 years. This indicated that temperatures were initially cool c. ad 1050, but steadily increased until the late ad 1100s. After a brief cool period in the ad 1200s, temperatures again increased. Temperatures steadily decreased during the ad 1600s and remained relatively stable until the start of the 20th century when they rapidly decreased, before increasing from ad 1960s onwards. Comparisons with high resolution temperature records from western Tasmania, New Zealand and South America revealed some similarities, but also highlighted differences in temperature variability across the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These are likely due to a combination of factors including the spatial variability in climate between and within regions, and differences between records that document seasonal (i.e. warm season/late summer) versus annual temperature variability. This highlights the need for further records from the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in order to constrain past natural spatial and seasonal/annual temperature variability in the region, and to accurately identify and attribute changes to natural variability and/or anthropogenic activities.

An integrated system for 3D hip joint reconstruction from 2D X-rays: a preliminary validation study

The acquisition of conventional X-ray radiographs remains the standard imaging procedure for the diagnosis of hip-related problems. However, recent studies demonstrated the benefit of using three-dimensional (3D) surface models in the clinical routine. 3D surface models of the hip joint are useful for assessing the dynamic range of motion in order to identify possible pathologies such as femoroacetabular impingement. In this paper, we present an integrated system which consists of X-ray radiograph calibration and subsequent 2D/3D hip joint reconstruction for diagnosis and planning of hip-related problems. A mobile phantom with two different sizes of fiducials was developed for X-ray radiograph calibration, which can be robustly detected within the images. On the basis of the calibrated X-ray images, a 3D reconstruction method of the acetabulum was developed and applied together with existing techniques to reconstruct a 3D surface model of the hip joint. X-ray radiographs of dry cadaveric hip bones and one cadaveric specimen with soft tissue were used to prove the robustness of the developed fiducial detection algorithm. Computed tomography scans of the cadaveric bones were used to validate the accuracy of the integrated system. The fiducial detection sensitivity was in the same range for both sizes of fiducials. While the detection sensitivity was 97.96% for the large fiducials, it was 97.62% for the small fiducials. The acetabulum and the proximal femur were reconstructed with a mean surface distance error of 1.06 and 1.01 mm, respectively. The results for fiducial detection sensitivity and 3D surface reconstruction demonstrated the capability of the integrated system for 3D hip joint reconstruction from 2D calibrated X-ray radiographs.

Unaltered oncological outcomes of radical cystectomy with extended lymphadenectomy over three decades

OBJECTIVE To evaluate oncological outcome trends over the last three decades in patients after radical cystectomy (RC) and extended pelvic lymph node (LN) dissection. PATIENTS AND METHODS Retrospective analysis of the University of Southern California (USC) RC cohort of patients (1488 patients) operated with intent to cure from 1980 to 2005 for biopsy confirmed muscle-invasive urothelial bladder cancer. To focus on outcomes of unexpected (cN0M0) LN-positive patients, the USC subset was extended with unexpected LN-positive patients from the University of Berne (UB) (combined subgroup 521 patients). Patients were grouped and compared according to decade of surgery (1980-1989/1990-1999/≥2000). Survival probabilities were calculated with Kaplan-Meier plots, log-rank tests compared outcomes according to decade of surgery, followed by multivariable verification. RESULTS The 10-year recurrence-free survival was 78-80% in patients with organ-confined, LN-negative disease, 53-60% in patients with extravesical, yet LN-negative disease and ≈30% in LN-positive patients. Although the number of patients receiving systemic chemotherapy increased, no survival improvement was noted in either the entire USC cohort, or in the combined LN-positive USC-UB cohort. In contrast, patient age at surgery increased progressively, suggesting a relative survival benefit. CONCLUSIONS Radical surgery remains the mainstay of therapy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Yet, our study reveals predictable outcomes but no survival improvement in patients undergoing RC over the last three decades. Any future survival improvements are likely to result from more effective systemic treatments and/or earlier detection of the disease.

Late Quaternary palaeoenvironmental reconstruction from Lakes Ohrid and Prespa (Macedonia/Albania border) using stable isotopes

Abstract. Here we present stable isotope data from three sediment records from lakes that lie along the Macedonian- Albanian border (Lake Prespa: 1 core, and Lake Ohrid: 2 cores). The records only overlap for the last 40 kyr, although the longest record contains the MIS 5/6 transition (Lake Ohrid). The sedimentary characteristics of both lakes differ significantly between the glacial and interglacial phases. At the end of MIS 6 Lake Ohrid’s water level was low (high �18Ocalcite) and, although productivity was increasing (high calcite content), the carbon supply was mainly from inorganic catchment rock sources (high �13Ccarb). During the last interglacial, calcite and TOC production and preservation increased, progressively lower �18Ocalcite suggest increase in humidity and lake levels until around 115 ka. During ca. 80 ka to 11 ka the lake records suggest cold conditions as indicated by negligible calcite precipitation and low organic matter content. In Lake Ohrid, �13Corg are complacent; in contrast, Lake Prespa shows consistently higher �13Corg suggesting a low oxidation of 13C-depleted organic matter in agreement with a general deterioration of climate conditions during the glacial. From 15 ka to the onset of the Holocene, calcite and TOC begin to increase, suggesting lake levels were probably low (high �18Ocalcite). In the Holocene (11 ka to present) enhanced productivity is manifested by high calcite and organic matter content. All three cores show an early Holocene characterised by low �18Ocalcite, apart from the very early Holocene phase in Prespa where the lowest �18Ocalcite occurs at ca. 7.5 ka, suggesting a phase of higher lake level only in (the more sensitive) Lake Prespa. From 6 ka, �18Ocalcite suggest progressive aridification, in agreement with many other records in the Mediterranean, although the uppermost sediments in one core records low �18Ocalcite which we interpret as a result of human activity. Overall, the isotope data present here confirm that these two big lakes have captured the large scale, low frequency palaeoclimate variation that is seen in Mediterranean lakes, although in detail there is much palaeoclimate information that could be gained, especially small scale, high frequency differences between this region and the Mediterranean.

3D Face Reconstruction from 2D Pictures: First Results of a Web-Based Computer Aided System for Aesthetic Procedures

The human face is a vital component of our identity and many people undergo medical aesthetics procedures in order to achieve an ideal or desired look. However, communication between physician and patient is fundamental to understand the patient’s wishes and to achieve the desired results. To date, most plastic surgeons rely on either “free hand” 2D drawings on picture printouts or computerized picture morphing. Alternatively, hardware dependent solutions allow facial shapes to be created and planned in 3D, but they are usually expensive or complex to handle. To offer a simple and hardware independent solution, we propose a web-based application that uses 3 standard 2D pictures to create a 3D representation of the patient’s face on which facial aesthetic procedures such as filling, skin clearing or rejuvenation, and rhinoplasty are planned in 3D. The proposed application couples a set of well-established methods together in a novel manner to optimize 3D reconstructions for clinical use. Face reconstructions performed with the application were evaluated by two plastic surgeons and also compared to ground truth data. Results showed the application can provide accurate 3D face representations to be used in clinics (within an average of 2 mm error) in less than 5 min.

Past forest composition, structures and processes – How paleoecology can contribute to forest conservation

The importance of long-term historical information derived from paleoecological studies has long been recognized as a fundamental aspect of effective conservation. However, there remains some uncertainty regarding the extent to which paleoecology can inform on specific issues of high conservation priority, at the scale for which conservation policy decisions often take place. Here we review to what extent the past occurrence of three fundamental aspects of forest conservation can be assessed using paleoecological data, with a focus on northern Europe. These aspects are (1) tree species composition, (2) old/large trees and coarse woody debris, and (3) natural disturbances. We begin by evaluating the types of relevant historical information available from contemporary forests, then evaluate common paleoecological techniques, namely dendrochronology, pollen, macrofossil, charcoal, and fossil insect and wood analyses. We conclude that whereas contemporary forests can be used to estimate historical, natural occurrences of several of the aspects addressed here (e.g. old/large trees), paleoecological techniques are capable of providing much greater temporal depth, as well as robust quantitative data for tree species composition and fire disturbance, qualitative insights regarding old/large trees and woody debris, but limited indications of past windstorms and insect outbreaks. We also find that studies of fossil wood and paleoentomology are perhaps the most underutilized sources of information. Not only can paleoentomology provide species specific information, but it also enables the reconstruction of former environmental conditions otherwise unavailable. Despite the potential, the majority of conservation-relevant paleoecological studies primarily focus on describing historical forest conditions in broad terms and for large spatial scales, addressing former climate, land-use, and landscape developments, often in the absence of a specific conservation context. In contrast, relatively few studies address the most pressing conservation issues in northern Europe, often requiring data on the presence or quantities of dead wood, large trees or specific tree species, at the scale of the stand or reserve. Furthermore, even fewer examples exist of detailed paleoecological data being used for conservation planning, or the setting of operative restorative baseline conditions at local scales. If ecologist and conservation biologists are going to benefit to the full extent possible from the ever-advancing techniques developed by the paleoecological sciences, further integration of these disciplines is desirable.

A reconstruction of atmospheric carbon dioxide and its stable carbon isotopic composition from the penultimate glacial maximum to the last glacial inception

The reconstruction of the stable carbon isotope evolution in atmospheric CO2 (δ13Catm), as archived in Antarctic ice cores, bears the potential to disentangle the contributions of the different carbon cycle fluxes causing past CO2 variations. Here we present a new record of δ13Catm before, during and after the Marine Isotope Stage 5.5 (155 000 to 105 000 yr BP). The dataset is archived on the data repository PANGEA® (www.pangea.de) under 10.1594/PANGAEA.817041. The record was derived with a well established sublimation method using ice from the EPICA Dome C (EDC) and the Talos Dome ice cores in East Antarctica. We find a 0.4‰ shift to heavier values between the mean δ13Catm level in the Penultimate (~ 140 000 yr BP) and Last Glacial Maximum (~ 22 000 yr BP), which can be explained by either (i) changes in the isotopic composition or (ii) intensity of the carbon input fluxes to the combined ocean/atmosphere carbon reservoir or (iii) by long-term peat buildup. Our isotopic data suggest that the carbon cycle evolution along Termination II and the subsequent interglacial was controlled by essentially the same processes as during the last 24 000 yr, but with different phasing and magnitudes. Furthermore, a 5000 yr lag in the CO2 decline relative to EDC temperatures is confirmed during the glacial inception at the end of MIS5.5 (120 000 yr BP). Based on our isotopic data this lag can be explained by terrestrial carbon release and carbonate compensation.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

Dose Reduction in Standard Head CT: First Results from a New Scanner Using Iterative Reconstruction and a New Detector Type in Comparison with Two Previous Generations of Multi-slice CT

PURPOSE Computed tomography (CT) accounts for more than half of the total radiation exposure from medical procedures, which makes dose reduction in CT an effective means of reducing radiation exposure. We analysed the dose reduction that can be achieved with a new CT scanner [Somatom Edge (E)] that incorporates new developments in hardware (detector) and software (iterative reconstruction). METHODS We compared weighted volume CT dose index (CTDIvol) and dose length product (DLP) values of 25 consecutive patients studied with non-enhanced standard brain CT with the new scanner and with two previous models each, a 64-slice 64-row multi-detector CT (MDCT) scanner with 64 rows (S64) and a 16-slice 16-row MDCT scanner with 16 rows (S16). We analysed signal-to-noise and contrast-to-noise ratios in images from the three scanners and performed a quality rating by three neuroradiologists to analyse whether dose reduction techniques still yield sufficient diagnostic quality. RESULTS CTDIVol of scanner E was 41.5 and 36.4 % less than the values of scanners S16 and S64, respectively; the DLP values were 40 and 38.3 % less. All differences were statistically significant (p < 0.0001). Signal-to-noise and contrast-to-noise ratios were best in S64; these differences also reached statistical significance. Image analysis, however, showed "non-inferiority" of scanner E regarding image quality. CONCLUSIONS The first experience with the new scanner shows that new dose reduction techniques allow for up to 40 % dose reduction while still maintaining image quality at a diagnostically usable level.

Cell and matrix morphology in articular cartilage from adult human knee and ankle joints suggests depth-associated adaptations to biomechanical and anatomical roles

OBJECTIVE Marked differences exist between human knee and ankle joints regarding risks and progression of osteoarthritis (OA). Pathomechanisms of degenerative joint disease may therefore differ in these joints, due to differences in tissue structure and function. Focussing on structural issues which are design goals for tissue engineering, we compared cell and matrix morphologies in different anatomical sites of adult human knee and ankle joints. METHODS Osteochondral explants were acquired from knee and ankle joints of deceased persons aged 20 to 40 years and analyzed for cell, matrix and tissue morphology using confocal and electron microscopy and unbiased stereological methods. Variations associated with joint (knee versus ankle) and biomechanical role (convex versus concave articular surfaces) were identified by 2-way analysis of variance and post-hoc analysis. RESULTS Knee cartilage exhibited higher cell densities in the superficial zone than ankle cartilage. In the transitional zone, higher cell densities were observed in association with convex versus concave articular surfaces, without significant differences between knee and ankle cartilage. Highly uniform cell and matrix morphologies were evident throughout the radial zone in the knee and ankle, regardless of tissue biomechanical role. Throughout the knee and ankle cartilage sampled, chondron density was remarkably constant at approximately 4.2×10(6) chondrons/cm(3). CONCLUSION Variation of cartilage cell and matrix morphologies with changing joint and biomechanical environments suggests that tissue structural adaptations are performed primarily by the superficial and transitional zones. Data may aid the development of site-specific cartilage tissue engineering, and help identify conditions where OA is likely to occur.

NGRIP CH4 concentration from 120 to 10 kyr before present and its relation to a δ15N temperature reconstruction from the same ice core

During the last glacial cycle, Greenland temperature showed many rapid temperature variations, the so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events. The past atmospheric methane concentration closely followed these temperature variations, which implies that the warmings recorded in Greenland were probably hemispheric in extent. Here we substantially extend and complete the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) methane record from the Preboreal Holocene (PB) back to the end of the last interglacial period with a mean time resolution of 54 yr. We relate the amplitudes of the methane increases associated with DO events to the amplitudes of the local Greenland NGRIP temperature increases derived from stable nitrogen isotope (δ15N) measurements, which have been performed along the same ice core (Kindler et al., 2014). We find the ratio to oscillate between 5 parts per billion (ppb) per °C and 18 ppb °C−1 with the approximate frequency of the precessional cycle. A remarkably high ratio of 25.5 ppb °C−1 is reached during the transition from the Younger Dryas (YD) to the PB. Analysis of the timing of the fast methane and temperature increases reveals significant lags of the methane increases relative to NGRIP temperature for DO events 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 15, 19, and 20. These events generally have small methane increase rates and we hypothesize that the lag is caused by pronounced northward displacement of the source regions from stadial to interstadial. We further show that the relative interpolar concentration difference (rIPD) of methane is about 4.5% for the stadials between DO events 18 and 20, which is in the same order as in the stadials before and after DO event 2 around the Last Glacial Maximum. The rIPD of methane remains relatively stable throughout the full last glacial, with a tendency for elevated values during interstadial compared to stadial periods.