Numerical solution of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with an upwind compact difference scheme

A new finite difference method for the discretization of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations is presented. The scheme is constructed on a staggered-mesh grid system. The convection terms are discretized with a fifth-order-accurate upwind compact difference approximation, the viscous terms are discretized with a sixth-order symmetrical compact difference approximation, the continuity equation and the pressure gradient in the momentum equations are discretized with a fourth-order difference approximation on a cell-centered mesh. Time advancement uses a three-stage Runge-Kutta method. The Poisson equation for computing the pressure is solved with preconditioning. Accuracy analysis shows that the new method has high resolving efficiency. Validation of the method by computation of Taylor's vortex array is presented.

Experimental Study On Liquid Free Surface In Buoyant-Thermocapillary Convection

We investigate the surface deformations of buoyant-thermocapillary convection in a rectangular cavity clue to gravity and temperature gradient between the two sidewalls. The cavity is 52mm x 42mm in horizontal cross section, the thickness of liquid layer h is changed from 2.5mm to 6.5mm. Surface deformations of h = 3.5mm and 6.0mm are discussed and compared. Temperature difference is increased gradually, and the flow in the liquid layer will change from stable convection to unstable convection. Two kinds of optical diagnostic system with image processor are developed for study of the kinetics of buoyant-thermocapillary convection, they give out the information of liquid free surface. The quantitative results are calculated by Fourier transform and correlation analysis, respectively. With the increasing temperature gradient, surface deformations calculated are more declining. It is interesting phenomenon that the inclining directions of the convections in thin and thick liquid layers are different. For a thin layer, the convection is mainly controlled by thermocapillary effect. However, for a thick layer, the convection is mainly controlled by buoyancy effect. The surface deformation theoretically analysed is consistent with our experimental results. The present experiment proves that surface deformation is related to temperature gradient and thickness of the liquid layer. In other words, surface deformation lies on capillary convection and buoyancy convection.

The influence of buoyancy on the oscillatory thermocapillary convection with small bond number

This work is an experimental study of unidirectional bamboo-epoxy laminates of varying laminae number, in which tensile, compressive, flexural and interlaminar shear properties are evaluated. Further, the disposition of bamboo fibre, the parenchymatous tissue, and the resin matrix under different loading conditions are examined. Our results show that the specific strength and specific modulus of bamboo-epoxy laminates are adequate, the former being 3 to 4 times that of mild steel. Its mechanical properties are generally comparable to those of ordinary glass-fibre composites. The fracture behaviour of bamboo-epoxy under different loading conditions were observed using both acoustic emission techniques and scanning electron microscopy. The fracture mode varied with load, the fracture mechanism being similar to glass and carbon reinforced composites. Microstructural analyses revealed that natural bamboo is eligibly a fibre composite in itself; its inclusion in a plastic matrix will help solve the problems of cracking due to desiccation and bioerosion caused by insect pests. Furthermore, the thickness and shape of the composite can be tailored during fabrication to meet specific requirements, thereby enabling a wide spectrum of applications.

Relationships between Larval and Juvenile Abundance of Winter-Spawned Fishes in North Carolina, USA

We analyzed the relationships between the larval and juvenile abundances of selected estuarine-dependent fishes that spawn during the winter in continental shelf waters of the U.S. Atlantic coast. Six species were included in the analysis based on their ecological and economic importance and relative abundance in available surveys: spot Leiostomus xanthurus, pinfish Lagodon rhomboides, southern flounder Paralichthys lethostigma, summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus, Atlantic croaker Micropogonias undulatus, and Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus. Cross-correlation analysis was used to examine the relationships between the larval and juvenile abundances within species. Tests of synchrony across species were used to find similarities in recruitment dynamics for species with similar winter shelf-spawning life-history strategies. Positive correlations were found between the larval and juvenile abundances for three of the six selected species (spot, pinfish, and southern flounder). These three species have similar geographic ranges that primarily lie south of Cape Hatteras. There were no significant correlations between the larval and juvenile abundances for the other three species (summer flounder, Atlantic croaker, and Atlantic menhaden); we suggest several factors that could account for the lack of a relationship. Synchrony was found among the three southern species within both the larval and juvenile abundance time series. These results provide support for using larval ingress measures as indices of abundance for these and other species with similar geographic ranges and winter shelf-spawning life-history strategies.

Spatial distribution of Chlorpyrifos and Endosulfan in USA coastal waters and the Great Lakes

Between 1994 and 1997, 258 tissue and 178 sediment samples were analyzed for chlorpyrifos throughout the coastal United States and the Great Lakes. Subsequently, 95 of the 1997 tissue samples were reanalyzed for endosulfan. Tissue chlorpyrifos concentrations, which exceeded the 90th percentile, were found in coastal regions known to have high agricultural use rates but also strongly correlated with sites near high population. The highest concentrations of endosulfans in contrast, were generally limited to agricultural regions of the country. Detections of chlorpyrifos at several Alaskan sites suggest an atmospheric transport mechanism. Many Great Lakes sites had chlorpyrifos tissue concentrations above the 90th percentile which decreased with increasing distance from the Corn Belt region (Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin) where most agriculturally applied chlorpyrifos is used. Correlation analysis suggests that fluvial discharge is the primary transport pathway on the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts for chlorpyrifos but not necessarily for endosulfans. (PDF contains 28 pages)

Daily scale wintertime sea surface temperature and IPC-Navidad variability in the southern Bay of Biscay from 1981 to 2010

The combination of remotely sensed gappy Sea surface temperature (SST) images with the missing data filling DINEOF (data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions) technique, followed by a principal component analysis of the reconstructed data, has been used to identify the time evolution and the daily scale variability of the wintertime surface signal of the Iberian Poleward Current (IPC), or Navidad, during the 1981-2010 period. An exhaustive comparison with the existing bibliography, and the vertical temperature and salinity profiles related to its extremes over the Bay of Biscay area, show that the obtained time series accurately reflect the IPC-Navidad variability. Once a time series for the evolution of the SST signal of the current over the last decades is well established, this time series is used to propose a physical mechanism in relation to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, involving both atmospheric and oceanic variables. According to the proposed mechanism, an atmospheric circulation anomaly observed in both the 500 hPa and the surface levels generates atmospheric surface level pressure, wind-stress and heat-flux anomalies. In turn, those surface level atmospheric anomalies induce mutually coherent SST and sea level anomalies over the North Atlantic area, and locally, in the Bay of Biscay area. These anomalies, both locally over the Bay of Biscay area and over the North Atlantic, are in agreement with several mechanisms that have separately been related to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, i.e. the south-westerly winds, the joint effect of baroclinicity and relief (JEBAR) effect, the topographic beta effect and a weakened North Atlantic gyre.

Structural Integrity of the Contralesional Hemisphere Predicts Cognitive Impairment in Ischemic Stroke at Three Months

After stroke, white matter integrity can be affected both locally and distally to the primary lesion location. It has been shown that tract disruption in mirror's regions of the contralateral hemisphere is associated with degree of functional impairment. Fourteen patients suffering right hemispheric focal stroke (S) and eighteen healthy controls (HC) underwent Diffusion Weighted Imaging (DWI) and neuropsychological assessment. The stroke patient group was divided into poor (SP; n = 8) and good (SG; n = 6) cognitive recovery groups according to their cognitive improvement from the acute phase (72 hours after stroke) to the subacute phase (3 months post-stroke). Whole-brain DWI data analysis was performed by computing Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) followed by Tract Based Spatial Statistics (TBSS). Assessment of effects was obtained computing the correlation of the projections on TBSS skeleton of Fractional Anisotropy (FA) and Radial Diffusivity (RD) with cognitive test results. Significant decrease of FA was found only in right brain anatomical areas for the S group when compared to the HC group. Analyzed separately, stroke patients with poor cognitive recovery showed additional significant FA decrease in several left hemisphere regions; whereas SG patients showed significant decrease only in the left genu of corpus callosum when compared to the HC. For the SG group, whole brain analysis revealed significant correlation between the performance in the Semantic Fluency test and the FA in the right hemisphere as well as between the performance in the Grooved Pegboard Test (GPT) and theTrail Making Test-part A and the FA in the left hemisphere. For the SP group, correlation analysis revealed significant correlation between the performance in the GPT and the FA in the right hemisphere. Palabras clave

An evaluation of length-frequency sampling procedures and subsequent data analysis for purse seine-caught yellowfin tuna in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: A two-stage sampling design is used to estimate the variances of the numbers of yellowfin in different age groups caught in the eastern Pacific Ocean. For purse seiners, the primary sampling unit (n) is a brine well containing fish from a month-area stratum; the number of fish lengths (m) measured from each well are the secondary units. The fish cannot be selected at random from the wells because of practical limitations. The effects of different sampling methods and other factors on the reliability and precision of statistics derived from the length-frequency data were therefore examined. Modifications are recommended where necessary. Lengths of fish measured during the unloading of six test wells revealed two forms of inherent size stratification: 1) short-term disruptions of existing pattern of sizes, and 2) transition zones between long-term trends in sizes. To some degree, all wells exhibited cyclic changes in mean size and variance during unloading. In half of the wells, it was observed that size selection by the unloaders induced a change in mean size. As a result of stratification, the sequence of sizes removed from all wells was non-random, regardless of whether a well contained fish from a single set or from more than one set. The number of modal sizes in a well was not related to the number of sets. In an additional well composed of fish from several sets, an experiment on vertical mixing indicated that a representative sample of the contents may be restricted to the bottom half of the well. The contents of the test wells were used to generate 25 simulated wells and to compare the results of three sampling methods applied to them. The methods were: (1) random sampling (also used as a standard), (2) protracted sampling, in which the selection process was extended over a large portion of a well, and (3) measuring fish consecutively during removal from the well. Repeated sampling by each method and different combinations indicated that, because the principal source of size variation occurred among primary units, increasing n was the most effective way to reduce the variance estimates of both the age-group sizes and the total number of fish in the landings. Protracted sampling largely circumvented the effects of size stratification, and its performance was essentially comparable to that of random sampling. Sampling by this method is recommended. Consecutive-fish sampling produced more biased estimates with greater variances. Analysis of the 1988 length-frequency samples indicated that, for age groups that appear most frequently in the catch, a minimum sampling frequency of one primary unit in six for each month-area stratum would reduce the coefficients of variation (CV) of their size estimates to approximately 10 percent or less. Additional stratification of samples by set type, rather than month-area alone, further reduced the CV's of scarce age groups, such as the recruits, and potentially improved their accuracy. The CV's of recruitment estimates for completely-fished cohorts during the 198184 period were in the vicinity of 3 to 8 percent. Recruitment estimates and their variances were also relatively insensitive to changes in the individual quarterly catches and variances, respectively, of which they were composed. SPANISH: Se usa un diseño de muestreo de dos etapas para estimar las varianzas de los números de aletas amari11as en distintos grupos de edad capturados en el Océano Pacifico oriental. Para barcos cerqueros, la unidad primaria de muestreo (n) es una bodega de salmuera que contenía peces de un estrato de mes-área; el numero de ta11as de peces (m) medidas de cada bodega es la unidad secundaria. Limitaciones de carácter practico impiden la selección aleatoria de peces de las bodegas. Por 10 tanto, fueron examinados los efectos de distintos métodos de muestreo y otros factores sobre la confiabilidad y precisión de las estadísticas derivadas de los datos de frecuencia de ta11a. Se recomiendan modificaciones donde sean necesarias. Las ta11as de peces medidas durante la descarga de seis bodegas de prueba revelaron dos formas de estratificación inherente por ta11a: 1) perturbaciones a corto plazo en la pauta de ta11as existente, y 2) zonas de transición entre las tendencias a largo plazo en las ta11as. En cierto grado, todas las bodegas mostraron cambios cíclicos en ta11a media y varianza durante la descarga. En la mitad de las bodegas, se observo que selección por ta11a por los descargadores indujo un cambio en la ta11a media. Como resultado de la estratificación, la secuencia de ta11as sacadas de todas las bodegas no fue aleatoria, sin considerar si una bodega contenía peces de un solo lance 0 de mas de uno. El numero de ta11as modales en una bodega no estaba relacionado al numero de lances. En una bodega adicional compuesta de peces de varios lances, un experimento de mezcla vertical indico que una muestra representativa del contenido podría estar limitada a la mitad inferior de la bodega. Se uso el contenido de las bodegas de prueba para generar 25 bodegas simuladas y comparar los resultados de tres métodos de muestreo aplicados a estas. Los métodos fueron: (1) muestreo aleatorio (usado también como norma), (2) muestreo extendido, en el cual el proceso de selección fue extendido sobre una porción grande de una bodega, y (3) medición consecutiva de peces durante la descarga de la bodega. EI muestreo repetido con cada método y distintas combinaciones de n y m indico que, puesto que la fuente principal de variación de ta11a ocurría entre las unidades primarias, aumentar n fue la manera mas eficaz de reducir las estimaciones de la varianza de las ta11as de los grupos de edad y el numero total de peces en los desembarcos. El muestreo extendido evito mayormente los efectos de la estratificación por ta11a, y su desempeño fue esencialmente comparable a aquel del muestreo aleatorio. Se recomienda muestrear con este método. El muestreo de peces consecutivos produjo estimaciones mas sesgadas con mayores varianzas. Un análisis de las muestras de frecuencia de ta11a de 1988 indico que, para los grupos de edad que aparecen con mayor frecuencia en la captura, una frecuencia de muestreo minima de una unidad primaria de cada seis para cada estrato de mes-área reduciría los coeficientes de variación (CV) de las estimaciones de ta11a correspondientes a aproximadamente 10% 0 menos. Una estratificación adicional de las muestras por tipo de lance, y no solamente mes-área, redujo aun mas los CV de los grupos de edad escasos, tales como los reclutas, y mejoró potencialmente su precisión. Los CV de las estimaciones del reclutamiento para las cohortes completamente pescadas durante 1981-1984 fueron alrededor de 3-8%. Las estimaciones del reclutamiento y sus varianzas fueron también relativamente insensibles a cambios en las capturas de trimestres individuales y las varianzas, respectivamente, de las cuales fueron derivadas. (PDF contains 70 pages)

Mathematical study of complex networks : brain, internet, and power grid

The dissertation is concerned with the mathematical study of various network problems. First, three real-world networks are considered: (i) the human brain network (ii) communication networks, (iii) electric power networks. Although these networks perform very different tasks, they share similar mathematical foundations. The high-level goal is to analyze and/or synthesis each of these systems from a “control and optimization” point of view. After studying these three real-world networks, two abstract network problems are also explored, which are motivated by power systems. The first one is “flow optimization over a flow network” and the second one is “nonlinear optimization over a generalized weighted graph”. The results derived in this dissertation are summarized below.

Brain Networks: Neuroimaging data reveals the coordinated activity of spatially distinct brain regions, which may be represented mathematically as a network of nodes (brain regions) and links (interdependencies). To obtain the brain connectivity network, the graphs associated with the correlation matrix and the inverse covariance matrix—describing marginal and conditional dependencies between brain regions—have been proposed in the literature. A question arises as to whether any of these graphs provides useful information about the brain connectivity. Due to the electrical properties of the brain, this problem will be investigated in the context of electrical circuits. First, we consider an electric circuit model and show that the inverse covariance matrix of the node voltages reveals the topology of the circuit. Second, we study the problem of finding the topology of the circuit based on only measurement. In this case, by assuming that the circuit is hidden inside a black box and only the nodal signals are available for measurement, the aim is to find the topology of the circuit when a limited number of samples are available. For this purpose, we deploy the graphical lasso technique to estimate a sparse inverse covariance matrix. It is shown that the graphical lasso may find most of the circuit topology if the exact covariance matrix is well-conditioned. However, it may fail to work well when this matrix is ill-conditioned. To deal with ill-conditioned matrices, we propose a small modification to the graphical lasso algorithm and demonstrate its performance. Finally, the technique developed in this work will be applied to the resting-state fMRI data of a number of healthy subjects.

Communication Networks: Congestion control techniques aim to adjust the transmission rates of competing users in the Internet in such a way that the network resources are shared efficiently. Despite the progress in the analysis and synthesis of the Internet congestion control, almost all existing fluid models of congestion control assume that every link in the path of a flow observes the original source rate. To address this issue, a more accurate model is derived in this work for the behavior of the network under an arbitrary congestion controller, which takes into account of the effect of buffering (queueing) on data flows. Using this model, it is proved that the well-known Internet congestion control algorithms may no longer be stable for the common pricing schemes, unless a sufficient condition is satisfied. It is also shown that these algorithms are guaranteed to be stable if a new pricing mechanism is used.

Electrical Power Networks: Optimal power flow (OPF) has been one of the most studied problems for power systems since its introduction by Carpentier in 1962. This problem is concerned with finding an optimal operating point of a power network minimizing the total power generation cost subject to network and physical constraints. It is well known that OPF is computationally hard to solve due to the nonlinear interrelation among the optimization variables. The objective is to identify a large class of networks over which every OPF problem can be solved in polynomial time. To this end, a convex relaxation is proposed, which solves the OPF problem exactly for every radial network and every meshed network with a sufficient number of phase shifters, provided power over-delivery is allowed. The concept of “power over-delivery” is equivalent to relaxing the power balance equations to inequality constraints.

Flow Networks: In this part of the dissertation, the minimum-cost flow problem over an arbitrary flow network is considered. In this problem, each node is associated with some possibly unknown injection, each line has two unknown flows at its ends related to each other via a nonlinear function, and all injections and flows need to satisfy certain box constraints. This problem, named generalized network flow (GNF), is highly non-convex due to its nonlinear equality constraints. Under the assumption of monotonicity and convexity of the flow and cost functions, a convex relaxation is proposed, which always finds the optimal injections. A primary application of this work is in the OPF problem. The results of this work on GNF prove that the relaxation on power balance equations (i.e., load over-delivery) is not needed in practice under a very mild angle assumption.

Generalized Weighted Graphs: Motivated by power optimizations, this part aims to find a global optimization technique for a nonlinear optimization defined over a generalized weighted graph. Every edge of this type of graph is associated with a weight set corresponding to the known parameters of the optimization (e.g., the coefficients). The motivation behind this problem is to investigate how the (hidden) structure of a given real/complex valued optimization makes the problem easy to solve, and indeed the generalized weighted graph is introduced to capture the structure of an optimization. Various sufficient conditions are derived, which relate the polynomial-time solvability of different classes of optimization problems to weak properties of the generalized weighted graph such as its topology and the sign definiteness of its weight sets. As an application, it is proved that a broad class of real and complex optimizations over power networks are polynomial-time solvable due to the passivity of transmission lines and transformers.

Learning and management skills: the internationalization of Grupo Arcor. Analysis from a process-based approach

This paper analyzes the path of the international expansion of Grupo Arcor, an Argentine multinational company specializing in confectionery. The objective is to entify corporate strategies and business learning that led this Latin American firm to establish itself as one of the leading manufacturers in confectionery industry ,particularly in the 21st Century. The analysis is primarily qualitative in order to identify the economic dimension as a determinant in the internationalization process; a processbased approach from the Uppsala Model is used for this. However, the study is also complemented with a regression analysis to test if the firm was driven to expand internationally by the expectations on the degree of globalization of the industry and the accumulation of experience in foreign markets, and if the company was influenced by psychic distance in choosing the location of its investment; given the influence of these variables in Grupo Arcor business strategies. Our findings suggest that Grupo Arcor, was able to become global due to strategies such as vertical integration, diversification of products and geographical markets (based on psychic distance) and indeed some strategies were consequence of the globalization of the sector and the accumulation of experience in foreign markets.

Wave interactions in periodic structures and periodic dielectric waveguides

This work is concerned with a general analysis of wave interactions in periodic structures and particularly periodic thin film dielectric waveguides.

The electromagnetic wave propagation in an asymmetric dielectric waveguide with a periodically perturbed surface is analyzed in terms of a Floquet mode solution. First order approximate analytical expressions for the space harmonics are obtained. The solution is used to analyze various applications: (1) phase matched second harmonic generation in periodically perturbed optical waveguides; (2) grating couplers and thin film filters; (3) Bragg reflection devices; (4) the calculation of the traveling wave interaction impedance for solid state and vacuum tube optical traveling wave amplifiers which utilize periodic dielectric waveguides. Some of these applications are of interest in the field of integrated optics.

A special emphasis is put on the analysis of traveling wave interaction between electrons and electromagnetic waves in various operation regimes. Interactions with a finite temperature electron beam at the collision-dominated, collisionless, and quantum regimes are analyzed in detail assuming a one-dimensional model and longitudinal coupling.

The analysis is used to examine the possibility of solid state traveling wave devices (amplifiers, modulators), and some monolithic structures of these devices are suggested, designed to operate at the submillimeter-far infrared frequency regime. The estimates of attainable traveling wave interaction gain are quite low (on the order of a few inverse centimeters). However, the possibility of attaining net gain with different materials, structures and operation condition is not ruled out.

The developed model is used to discuss the possibility and the theoretical limitations of high frequency (optical) operation of vacuum electron beam tube; and the relation to other electron-electromagnetic wave interaction effects (Smith-Purcell and Cerenkov radiation and the free electron laser) are pointed out. Finally, the case where the periodic structure is the natural crystal lattice is briefly discussed. The longitudinal component of optical space harmonics in the crystal is calculated and found to be of the order of magnitude of the macroscopic wave, and some comments are made on the possibility of coherent bremsstrahlung and distributed feedback lasers in single crystals.

Correlação entre o perfil fenotípico, genotípico e a virulência de isolados geofílicos, antropofílicos e zoofílicos de Sporothrix schenckii

Sporothrix schenckii é um fungo dimórfico e agente etiológico da esporotricose, uma micose profunda que apresenta diferentes manifestações clínicas. As diversas manifestações clínicas desta e de outras doenças infecciosas podem ser relacionadas ao status imune do hospedeiro, a fatores de virulência do patógeno ou a diferentes genótipos. Dados anteriores do nosso grupo demonstram que diferenças na expressão de adesinas do S. schenckii para fibronectina estão diretamente relacionadas à virulência de diferentes cepas. Neste trabalho visamos avaliar caracteres morfológicos bioquímicos e genotípicos de doze isolados de geofílicos, zoofílicos e antropofílicos de S. schenckii, de diferentes origens geográficas, que apresentam diferentes graus de virulência. Foi analisada a morfologia das formas de micélio e levedura de cada isolado. Foi observado que a fase de micélio dos isolados estudados apresentaram morfologia típica com hifas finas e septadas, com conídios obovóides ou ovóides alongados. As leveduras apresentaram pleomorfismo típico da espécie, com células variando do formato ovóide ao alongado. Verificamos ainda a expressão de adesinas para fibronectina e laminina, do antígeno gp70 e, o padrão de bandas antigênicas reconhecidas por anticorpos IgG presentes em soro de pacientes com esporotricose ou de camundongos infectados. Para isso, foram extraídas proteínas de superfície da forma de levedura de cada isolada, sendo os extratos ensaiados por Western blot. Nestes ensaios observamos que os isolados mais virulentos de S. schenckii expressavam mais adesinas para fibronectina e laminina. A presença da gp70 foi detectada em dez dos doze isolados, sendo que apenas os isolados zoofílicos não expressam esta glicoproteína. O padrão antigênico foi variável entre os isolados, não havendo clara relação com a origem e/ou distribuição geográfica. Os dados fenotípicos foram confrontados com dados genotípicos. Para isso, sequenciamos os loci da calmodulina (CAL) e do Internal Transcribed Spacer 1/2 (ITS 1/2) a fim de averiguar se haviam diferenças genotípicas entre os isolados estudados. As análises do sequenciamento do loci CAL e ITS, contudo, apontam a divisão dos isolados em duas espécies filogenéticas, S. schenckii e S. brasiliensis não correlacionada com a distribuição geográfica dos mesmos. Nosso estudo reforça a hipótese de haver uma correlação entre virulência e expressão de adesinas, porém, sem qualquer relação entre a distribuição geográfica dos isolados zoofilicos, antropofílicos ou geofílicos, bem como dos genótipos encontrados.

Análisis de precios del mercado diario de electricidad español

El trabajo analiza los precios de la electricidad del mercado diario español. En el mismo se realiza un estudio del mercado eléctrico español y sus componentes junto con un análisis de los cambios regulatorios más significativos durante el periodo muestral. A partir de allí, se analiza la muestra a través de los estadísticos descriptivos principales. Luego se presenta un modelo general que es analizado a partir de los resultados empíricos principales obtenidos con su estimación. Finalmente, se realizan ajustes al mismo para obtener un modelo simplificado que se ajuste mejor a lo que se quiere conseguir, que es analizar la evolución de los precios de la electricidad. Los resultados del ajuste arrojan que los precios horarios dependen en su mayor parte de los precios de las horas anteriores. También que el modelo recoge muy bien la estacionalidad mensual y horaria que presenta la muestra. Por otro lado, características de la serie de precios como son la volatilidad y los saltos no quedan bien recogidos por el modelo, lo que lleva a plantearse la búsqueda de modelos alternativos.

Análisis de precios del mercado diario de electricidad español

El trabajo analiza los precios de la electricidad del mercado diario español. En el mismo se realiza un estudio del mercado eléctrico español y sus componentes junto con un análisis de los cambios regulatorios más significativos durante el periodo muestral. A partir de allí, se analiza la muestra a través de los estadísticos descriptivos principales. Luego se presenta un modelo general que es analizado a partir de los resultados empíricos principales obtenidos con su estimación. Finalmente, se realizan ajustes al mismo para obtener un modelo simplificado que se ajuste mejor a lo que se quiere conseguir, que es analizar la evolución de los precios de la electricidad. Los resultados del ajuste arrojan que los precios horarios dependen en su mayor parte de los precios de las horas anteriores. También que el modelo recoge muy bien la estacionalidad mensual y horaria que presenta la muestra. Por otro lado, características de la serie de precios como son la volatilidad y los saltos no quedan bien recogidos por el modelo, lo que lleva a plantearse la búsqueda de modelos alternativos.

Identificação de áreas sob maior risco para leishmaniose visceral na cidade de Teresina, Piauí, Brasil

O propósito desta Tese foi detectar e caracterizar áreas sob alto risco para leishmaniose visceral (LV) e descrever os padrões de ocorrência e difusão da doença, entre os anos de 1993 a 1996 e 2001 a 2006, em Teresina, Piauí, por meio de métodos estatísticos para análise de dados espaciais, sistemas de informações geográficas e imagens de sensoriamento remoto. Os resultados deste estudo são apresentados na forma de três manuscritos. O primeiro usou análise de dados espaciais para identificar as áreas com maior risco de LV na área urbana de Teresina entre 2001 e 2006. Os resultados utilizando razão de kernels demonstraram que as regiões periféricas da cidade foram mais fortemente afetadas ao longo do período analisado. A análise com indicadores locais de autocorrelação espacial mostrou que, no início do período de estudo, os agregados de alta incidência de LV localizavam-se principalmente na região sul e nordeste da cidade, mas nos anos seguintes os eles apareceram também na região norte da cidade, sugerindo que o padrão de ocorrência de LV não é estático e a doença pode se espalhar ocasionalmente para outras áreas do município. O segundo estudo teve como objetivo caracterizar e predizer territórios de alto risco para ocorrência da LV em Teresina, com base em indicadores socioeconômicos e dados ambientais, obtidos por sensoriamento remoto. Os resultados da classificação orientada a objeto apontam a expansão da área urbana para a periferia da cidade, onde antes havia maior cobertura de vegetação. O modelo desenvolvido foi capaz de discriminar 15 conjuntos de setores censitário (SC) com diferentes probabilidades de conterem SC com alto risco de ocorrência de LV. O subconjunto com maior probabilidade de conter SC com alto risco de LV (92%) englobou SC com percentual de chefes de família alfabetizados menor que a mediana (≤64,2%), com maior área coberta por vegetação densa, com percentual de até 3 moradores por domicílio acima do terceiro quartil (>31,6%). O modelo apresentou, respectivamente, na amostra de treinamento e validação, sensibilidade de 79% e 54%, especificidade de 74% e 71%, acurácia global de 75% e 67% e área sob a curva ROC de 83% e 66%. O terceiro manuscrito teve como objetivo avaliar a aplicabilidade da estratégia de classificação orientada a objeto na busca de possíveis indicadores de cobertura do solo relacionados com a ocorrência da LV em meio urbano. Os índices de acurácia foram altos em ambas as imagens (>90%). Na correlação da incidência da LV com os indicadores ambientais verificou-se correlações positivas com os indicadores Vegetação densa, Vegetação rasteira e Solo exposto e negativa com os indicadores Água, Urbana densa e Urbana verde, todos estatisticamente significantes. Os resultados desta tese revelam que a ocorrência da LV na periferia de Teresina está intensamente relacionada às condições socioeconômicas inadequadas e transformações ambientais decorrentes do processo de expansão urbana, favorecendo a ocorrência do vetor (Lutzomyia longipalpis) nestas regiões.