Contracting over Prices

We defi ne a solution concept, perfectly contracted equilibrium, for an intertemporal exchange economy where agents are simultaneously price takers in spot commodity markets while engaging in non-Walrasian contracting over future prices. In a setting with subjective uncertainty over future prices, we show that perfectly contracted equi- librium outcomes are a subset of Pareto optimal allocations. It is a robust possibility for perfectly contracted equilibrium outcomes to di er from Arrow-Debreu equilibrium outcomes. We show that both centralized banking and retrading with bilateral contracting can lead to perfectly contracted equilibria.

Comparative Statics of Asset Prices: the effect of other assets' risk

Currently, financial economics is unable to predict changes in asset prices with respect to changes in the underlying risk factors, even when an asset's dividend is independent of a given factor. This paper takes steps towards addressing this issue by highlighting a crucial component of wealth effects on asset prices hitherto ignored by the literature. Changes in wealth do not only alter an agents risk aversion, but also her perceived 'riskiness' of a security. The latter enhances significantly the extent to which market- clearing leads to endogenously-generated correlation across asset prices, over and above that induced by correlation between payoffs, giving the appearance of 'contagion.'

UK House Prices: Convergence Clubs and Spillovers

This paper uses the log t test to analyse the convergence of house prices across UK regions and the presence of spillovers e ects. We nd that UK house prices can be grouped into four clusters. Moreover we document the dynamics of the house price spillovers across regions.

Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices via Offshore and Currency Hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.

Social isolation causers mortality by disrupting energy homeostrasis in ants

Social deprivation can have negative effects on the lives of social animals, including humans, yet little is known about the mechanisms by which social withdrawal affects animal health. Here we show that in the carpenter ant Camponotus fellah, socially isolated workers have a greatly reduced life span relative to ants kept in groups of ten individuals. By using a new tracking system, we found that social isolation resulted in important behavioral changes and greatly increased locomotor activity. The higher activity of single ants and their increased propensity to leave the nest to move along the walls suggested that the increased mortality of isolated ants might stem from an imbalance of energy income and expenditure. This view was supported by the finding that while isolated ants ingested the same amount of food as grouped ants, they retained food in the crop, hence preventing its use as an energy source. Moreover, the difference in life span between single and grouped individuals vanished when ants were not fed. This study thus underlines the role of social interactions as key regulators of energy balance, which ultimately affects aging and health in a highly social organism.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregressive process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The Öltered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidenced for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Competing with Asking Prices

In many markets, sellers advertise their good with an asking price. This is a price at which the seller will take his good off the market and trade immediately, though it is understood that a buyer can submit an offer below the asking price and that this offer may be accepted if the seller receives no better offers. Despite their prevalence in a variety of real world markets, asking prices have received little attention in the academic literature. We construct an environment with a few simple, realistic ingredients and demonstrate that using an asking price is optimal: it is the pricing mechanism that maximizes sellers’ revenues and it implements the efficient outcome in equilibrium. We provide a complete characterization of this equilibrium and use it to explore the positive implications of this pricing mechanism for transaction prices and allocations.

Competing with Asking Prices

In many markets, sellers advertise their good with an asking price. This is a price at which the seller will take his good off the market and trade immediately, though it is understood that a buyer can submit an offer below the asking price and that this offer may be accepted if the seller receives no better offers. Despite their prevalence in a variety of real world markets, asking prices have received little attention in the academic literature. We construct an environment with a few simple, realistic ingredients and demonstrate that using an asking price is optimal: it is the pricing mechanism that maximizes sellers' revenues and it implements the efficient outcome in equilibrium. We provide a complete characterization of this equilibrium and use it to explore the implications of this pricing mechanism for transaction prices and allocations.

Primary Commodity Prices: Co-movements, Common Factors and Fundamentals

The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, we document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on the co-movement of commodity prices.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

A first attempt of geographically-distributed Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM): mapping human time and energy throughput in metropolitan Barcelona

This study presents a first attempt to extend the “Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM)” approach to a spatial dimension using GIS techniques in the Metropolitan area of Barcelona. We use a combination of census and commercial databases along with a detailed land cover map to create a layer of Common Geographic Units that we populate with the local values of human time spent in different activities according to MuSIASEM hierarchical typology. In this way, we mapped the hours of available human time, in regards to the working hours spent in different locations, putting in evidence the gradients in spatial density between the residential location of workers (generating the work supply) and the places where the working hours are actually taking place. We found a strong three-modal pattern of clumps of areas with different combinations of values of time spent on household activities and on paid work. We also measured and mapped spatial segregation between these two activities and put forward the conjecture that this segregation increases with higher energy throughput, as the size of the functional units must be able to cope with the flow of exosomatic energy. Finally, we discuss the effectiveness of the approach by comparing our geographic representation of exosomatic throughput to the one issued from conventional methods.

Effects of a glucose meal on energy metabolism in patients with cirrhosis before and after liver transplantation.

HYPOTHESIS: Liver transplantation results in hepatic denervation. This may produce alterations of liver energy and substrate metabolism, which may contribute to weight gain after liver transplantation. DESIGN: Prospective clinical study. SETTING: Liver transplantation clinics in a university hospital. PATIENTS: Seven nondiabetic patients with cirrhosis were recruited while on a waiting list for liver transplantation. Seven healthy subjects were recruited as controls. INTERVENTION: Orthotopic liver transplantation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Evaluation of energy and substrate metabolism after ingestion of a glucose load with indirect calorimetry was performed before, 2 to 6 weeks after, and 5 to 19 months after transplantation. Whole-body glucose oxidation and storage and glucose-induced thermogenesis were calculated. RESULTS: Patients with cirrhosis had modestly elevated resting energy expenditure and normal glucose-induced thermogenesis and postprandial glucose oxidation and storage. These measures remained unchanged after liver transplantation despite a significant increase in postprandial glycemia. Patients, however, gained an average of 3 kg of body weight after 5 to 19 months compared with their weight before transplantation. CONCLUSION: Liver denervation secondary to transplantation does not lead to alterations of energy metabolism after ingestion of a glucose load.

The neuropeptide Y Y1 receptor regulates leptin-mediated control of energy homeostasis and reproductive functions.

The orexigenic neurotransmitter neuropeptide Y (NPY) plays a central role in the hypothalamic control of food intake and energy balance. NPY also exerts an inhibition of the gonadotrope axis that could be important in the response to poor metabolic conditions. In contrast, leptin provides an anorexigenic signal to centrally control the body needs in energy. Moreover, leptin contributes to preserve adequate reproductive functions by stimulating the activity of the gonadotrope axis. It is of interest that hypothalamic NPY represents a primary target of leptin actions. To evaluate the importance of the NPY Y1 and Y5 receptors in the downstream pathways modulated by leptin and controlling energy metabolism as well as the activity of the gonadotrope axis, we studied the effects of leptin administration on food intake and reproductive functions in mice deficient for the expression of either the Y1 or the Y5 receptor. Furthermore, the role of the Y1 receptor in leptin resistance was determined in leptin-deficient ob/ob mice bearing a null mutation in the NPY Y1 locus. Results point to a crucial role for the NPY Y1 receptor in mediating the NPY pathways situated downstream of leptin actions and controlling food intake, the onset of puberty, and the maintenance of reproductive functions.