Elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a High CO2 Climate

Projections of future global sea level depend on reliable estimates of changes in the size of polar ice sheets. Calculating this directly from global general circulation models (GCMs) is unreliable because the coarse resolution of 100 km or more is unable to capture narrow ablation zones, and ice dynamics is not usually taken into account in GCMs. To overcome these problems a high-resolution (20 km) dynamic ice sheet model has been coupled to the third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3). A novel feature is the use of two-way coupling, so that climate changes in the GCM drive ice mass changes in the ice sheet model that, in turn, can alter the future climate through changes in orography, surface albedo, and freshwater input to the model ocean. At the start of the main experiment the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was increased to 4 times the preindustrial level and held constant for 3000 yr. By the end of this period the Greenland ice sheet is almost completely ablated and has made a direct contribution of approximately 7 m to global average sea level, causing a peak rate of sea level rise of 5 mm yr-1 early in the simulation. The effect of ice sheet depletion on global and regional climate has been examined and it was found that apart from the sea level rise, the long-term effect on global climate is small. However, there are some significant regional climate changes that appear to have reduced the rate at which the ice sheet ablates.

It is premature to include non-CO2 effects of aviation in emission trading schemes

The recent G8 Gleneagles climate statement signed on 8 July 2005 specifically mentions a determination to lessen the impact of aviation on climate [Gleneagles, 2005. The Gleneagles communique: climate change, energy and sustainable development. http://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/PostG8_Gleneagles_Communique.pdf]. In January 2005 the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) commenced operation as the largest multi-country, multi-sector ETS in the world, albeit currently limited only to CO2 emissions. At present the scheme makes no provision for aircraft emissions. However, the UK Government would like to see aircraft included in the ETS and plans to use its Presidencies of both the EU and G8 in 2005 to implement these schemes within the EU and perhaps internationally. Non-CO2 effects have been included in some policy-orientated studies of the impact of aviation but we argue that the inclusion of such effects in any such ETS scheme is premature; we specifically argue that use of the Radiative Forcing Index for comparing emissions from different sources is inappropriate and that there is currently no metric for such a purpose that is likely to enable their inclusion in the near future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in the global sulfate burden due to perturbations in global CO2 concentrations

A large ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) integrations coupled to a fully interactive sulfur cycle scheme were run on the climateprediction.net platform to investigate the uncertainty in the climate response to sulfate aerosol and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing. The sulfate burden within the model (and the atmosphere) depends on the balance between formation processes and deposition (wet and dry). The wet removal processes for sulfate aerosol are much faster than dry removal and so any changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud cover, and precipitation will feed back on the sulfate burden. When CO2 is doubled in the Hadley Centre Slab Ocean Model (HadSM3), global mean precipitation increased by 5%; however, the global mean sulfate burden increased by 10%. Despite the global mean increase in precipitation, there were large areas of the model showing decreases in precipitation (and cloud cover) in the Northern Hemisphere during June–August, which reduced wet deposition and allowed the sulfate burden to increase. Further experiments were also undertaken with and without doubling CO2 while including a future anthropogenic sulfur emissions scenario. Doubling CO2 further enhanced the increases in sulfate burden associated with increased anthropogenic sulfur emissions as observed in the doubled CO2-only experiment. The implications are that the climate response to doubling CO2 can influence the amount of sulfate within the atmosphere and, despite increases in global mean precipitation, may act to increase it.

Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature

The effects of the anomalously warm European summer of 2003 highlighted the importance of understanding the relationship between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality. This review is an extension of the brief evidence examining this relationship provided in the IPCC’s Assessment Reports. A comprehensive and critical review of the literature is presented, which highlights avenues for further research, and the respective merits and limitations of the methods used to analyse the relationships. In contrast to previous reviews that concentrate on the epidemiological evidence, this review acknowledges the inter-disciplinary nature of the topic and examines the evidence presented in epidemiological, environmental health, and climatological journals. As such, present temperature–mortality relationships are reviewed, followed by a discussion of how these are likely to change under climate change scenarios. The importance of uncertainty, and methods to include it in future work, are also considered.

Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models

Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODS or GHG concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates) and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery). The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG-induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where CO2-induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery is projected to not likely have occurred by 2100 even though ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively). In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the midlatitude lower stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease in ozone, first a decrease in ozone is simulated from 1960 to 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase through the 21st century. Ozone in the midlatitude lower stratosphere returns to 1980 levels by ~2045 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and by ~2055 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the return of total column ozone to its 1980 level. The latest return of total column ozone is projected to occur over Antarctica (~2045–2060) whereas it is not likely that full ozone recovery is reached by the end of the 21st century in this region. Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels well before polar stratospheric halogen loading does so (~2025–2030 for total column ozone, cf. 2050–2070 for Cly+60×Bry) and it is likely that full recovery of total column ozone from the effects of ODSs has occurred by ~2035. In contrast to the Antarctic, by 2100 Arctic total column ozone is projected to be above 1960 levels, but not in the fixed GHG simulation, indicating that climate change plays a significant role.

Use of a crop model ensemble to quantify CO2 stimulation of water-stressed and well-watered crops

Increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) will benefit the yield of most crops. Two free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) meta-analyses have shown increases in yield of between 0 and 73% for C3 crops. Despite this large range, few crop modelling studies quantify the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We present a novel perturbed-parameter method of crop model simulation, which uses some constraints from observations, that does this. The model used is the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the general large-area model for annual crops (GLAM). The conclusions are of relevance to C3 crops in general. The increases in yield simulated by GLAM for doubled CO2 were between 16 and 62%. The difference in mean percentage increase between well-watered and water-stressed simulations was 6.8. These results were compared to FACE and controlled environment studies, and to sensitivity tests on two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., Bell, M.J., 1995. A peanut simulation model. I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. The relationship between CO2 and water stress in the experiments and in the models was examined. From a physiological perspective, water-stressed crops are expected to show greater CO2 stimulation than well-watered crops. This expectation has been cited in literature. However, this result is not seen consistently in either the FACE studies or in the crop models. In contrast, leaf-level models of assimilation do consistently show this result. An analysis of the evidence from these models and from the data suggests that scale (canopy versus leaf), model calibration, and model complexity are factors in determining the sign and magnitude of the interaction between CO2 and water stress. We conclude from our study that the statement that 'water-stressed crops show greater CO2 stimulation than well-watered crops' cannot be held to be universally true. We also conclude, preliminarily, that the relationship between water stress and assimilation varies with scale. Accordingly, we provide some suggestions on how studies of a similar nature, using crop models of a range of complexity, could contribute further to understanding the roles of model calibration, model complexity and scale. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (lambda, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966-1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of lambda near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

An elevated PSA, which normalizes, does not exclude the presence of prostate cancer

The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of prostate cancer in patients who have an elevated referral prostate-specific antigen (PSA), which subsequently falls to within their normal age-specific reference range prior to prostate biopsy. The study demonstrated that of the 160 patients recruited, 21 (13%) had a repeat PSA level which had fallen back to within their normal range. Five of these 21 patients (24%) were diagnosed with prostate cancer following biopsy, two of whom had a benign prostate examination. The study, therefore, demonstrates that normalisation of the PSA level prior to biopsy does not exclude the presence of prostate cancer even when the prostate feels benign.

Molecular guided catalytic hydrogenation by micelle-hosted Pd nanoparticle in supercritical CO2

Homogeneous dispersion of microemulsion containing palladium nanoparticles in scCO(2) is, for the first time, observed via sapphire window reactor and these particles show an unusual reluctance for double bond hydrogenation of citral aldehyde at hydrophobic end rather than hydrophilic end (high regioselectivity) owing to the unique micelle environment in supercritical carbon dioxide that guide a head-on attack of the molecule.

Coordination-driven self-assembly of a novel carbonato-bridged heteromolecular neutral nickel(II) triangle by atmospheric CO2 fixation

Formation of a quasi-symmetrical mu(3)-carbonato-bridged self-assembled heteromolecular triangle of Ni(II), [(mu(3)-CO3){Ni-2(salmeNH)(2)(NCS)(2)}[Ni(salmeNH(2))(2)]center dot Et2O center dot H2O (HsalmeNH = 2-[(3-methylamino-propylimino)-methyl]-phenol) involves atmospheric CO2 uptake in a neutral medium, by spontaneous self-reorganization of the starting mononuclear Ni(II)-Schiff-base complex, [Ni(salmeNH)(2)]. The environment around Ni(II) in two of the subunits is different from the third one. The starting complex, (Ni(salmeNH)(2)], and one of the possible intermediate species, [Ni(salmeNH(2))(2)(NCS)(2)], which has a very similar coordination environment to that in the third Ni(II) center, have been characterized structurally. A plausible mechanism for the formation of such a triangle has also been proposed. The compound shows a very strong antiferromagnetic coupling. Fit as a regular triangular arrangement gave J = -53.1, g = 2.24, and R = 1.5 x 10(-4).

Occurrence of ribbons of cyclic water pentamers in a metallo-organic framework formed by spontaneous fixation of CO2

In the reaction of equimolar amounts of copper(II) acetate with 2,2'-dipyridylamine (DPA) in aqueous tetrahydrofuran, in presence of KOH, aerial CO2 is spontaneously fixed to the carbonate anion yielding [Cu(DPA)(CO3)] . 3H(2)O (1). X-ray crystallography shows the presence of zigzag ribbons of cyclic water pentamers in the channels of a chain-like metallo-organic framework. The water ribbons are stabilised by hydrogen bonds to the metallo-organic backbone. Each (H2O)(5) pentamer is approximately planar.

Selective catalytic oxidation of alkylaromatic molecules by nanosize water droplets containing Co2+ species in supercritical carbon dioxide fluid

Stabilized nano-sized water droplet carrying water-soluble Co2+ species is employed as a new catalyst system for the oxidation of the alkyl aromatics in the presence of a fluorinated surfactant. This stable system contains no labile C-H structure and can facilitate excellent mixing of catalytic Co(II)/NaBr species, hydrocarbon substrates and oxygen in supercritical carbon dioxide fluid, which is demonstrated to be an excellent alternative solvent system to acetic acid or nitric acid for air oxidation of a number of alkyl aromatic hydrocarbons using Co(II) species at mild conditions. As a result, potential advantages of this 'greener' catalytic method including safer operation, easier separation and purification, higher catalytic activity with selectivity and without using corrosive or oxidation unstable solvent are therefore envisaged.