Current level of consensus on probiotic science: report of an expert meeting, London, 23 November 2009

The present paper summarizes  the consensus views of a group of 9 European clinicians and scientists on the current state of scientific knowledge on probiotics, covering those areas where there is substantial evidence for beneficial effects and those  where the evidence base is poor or inconsistent. There was general agreement that probiotic effects were species and often strain specific. The experts agreed  that some probiotics were effective in reducing the incidence and duration of rotavirus diarrhoea in infants, antibiotic-associated diarrhoea in adults and, for certain probiotics, Clostridium difficile infections. Some probiotics are associated with symptomatic improvements in irritable bowel syndrome and alleviation of digestive discomfort. Probiotics can reduce the frequency and severity of necrotizing enterocolitis in premature infants and have been shown to regulate intestinal immunity.  Several other clinical effects of probiotics, including their role in inflammatory bowel disease, atopic dermatitis, respiratory or genito-urinary infections or H.pylori adjuvant treatment were thought promising but inconsistent.

Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet

The consistency of ensemble forecasts from three global medium-range prediction systems with the observed transition behaviour of a three-cluster model of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is examined. The three clusters consist of a mid jet cluster taken to represent an undisturbed jet and south and north jet clusters representing southward and northward shifts of the jet. The ensemble forecasts span a period of three extended winters (October–February) from October 2007–February 2010. The mean probabilities of transitions between the clusters calculated from the ensemble forecasts are compared with those calculated from a 23-extended-winter climatology taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-Year Re-analysis (ERA40) dataset. No evidence of a drift with increasing lead time of the ensemble forecast transition probabilities towards values inconsistent with the 23-extended-winter climatology is found. The ensemble forecasts of transition probabilities are found to have positive Brier Skill at 15 day lead times. It is found that for the three-extended-winter forecast set, probabilistic forecasts initialized in the north jet cluster are generally less skilful than those initialized in the other clusters. This is consistent with the shorter persistence time-scale of the north jet cluster observed in the ERA40 23-extended-winter climatology. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Built environment research in West Africa current trends and future directions

The countries in West Africa (WA) are pushing for socio-economic development. The construction sector has an important part to play in helping to realise these aspirations. This necessitates an increased emphasis on research in the built environment, as a key contributor to developing capacity, knowledge and technologies for the sector. The West Africa Built Environment Research (WABER) conference was initiated in 2008. The objective was to: help young built environment researchers in West Africa (WA) to develop their research work and skills through constructive face-to-face interaction with their peers and experienced international academics; supply a platform for interaction among more senior academics and an outlet for disseminating their research work; and to serve as a vehicle for developing the built environment field in Africa. Three conferences have so far been organised, 2009 - 2011, bringing together ~300 academics, researchers and practitioners from the WA region. This paper draws on content analysis of the 189 papers in the proceedings of three conferences: 2009 (25); 2010 (57) and 2011 (107). These papers provide a window into current research priorities and trends and, thus, offer an opportunity to understand the kinds of research work undertaken by built environment researchers in West Africa. The aim is to illuminate the main research themes and methods that are currently pursued and the limitations thereof. The findings lay bare some of the many challenges that are faced by academics in WA and provide suggestions for alternative directions for future research and development work with indications of a potential research agenda.

Ice crystals growing from vapor in supercooled clouds between −2.5° and −22°C: testing current parameterization methods using laboratory data

The physical and empirical relationships used by microphysics schemes to control the rate at which vapor is transferred to ice crystals growing in supercooled clouds are compared with laboratory data to evaluate the realism of various model formulations. Ice crystal growth rates predicted from capacitance theory are compared with measurements from three independent laboratory studies. When the growth is diffusion- limited, the predicted growth rates are consistent with the measured values to within about 20% in 14 of the experiments analyzed, over the temperature range −2.5° to −22°C. Only two experiments showed significant disagreement with theory (growth rate overestimated by about 30%–40% at −3.7° and −10.6°C). Growth predictions using various ventilation factor parameterizations were also calculated and compared with supercooled wind tunnel data. It was found that neither of the standard parameterizations used for ventilation adequately described both needle and dendrite growth; however, by choosing habit-specific ventilation factors from previous numerical work it was possible to match the experimental data in both regimes. The relationships between crystal mass, capacitance, and fall velocity were investigated based on the laboratory data. It was found that for a given crystal size the capacitance was significantly overestimated by two of the microphysics schemes considered here, yet for a given crystal mass the growth rate was underestimated by those same schemes because of unrealistic mass/size assumptions. The fall speed for a given capacitance (controlling the residence time of a crystal in the supercooled layer relative to its effectiveness as a vapor sink, and the relative importance of ventilation effects) was found to be overpredicted by all the schemes in which fallout is permitted, implying that the modeled crystals reside for too short a time within the cloud layer and that the parameterized ventilation effect is too strong.

The distribution of the ring current: Cluster observations

Extending previous studies, a full-circle investigation of the ring current has been made using Cluster 4-spacecraft observations near perigee, at times when the Cluster array had relatively small separations and nearly regular tetrahedral configurations, and when the Dst index was greater than −30 nT (non-storm conditions). These observations result in direct estimations of the near equatorial current density at all magnetic local times (MLT) for the first time and with sufficient accuracy, for the following observations. The results confirm that the ring current flows westward and show that the in situ average measured current density (sampled in the radial range accessed by Cluster 4–4.5RE) is asymmetric in MLT, ranging from 9 to 27 nAm−2. The direction of current is shown to be very well ordered for the whole range of MLT. Both of these results are in line with previous studies on partial ring extent. The magnitude of the current density, however, reveals a distinct asymmetry: growing from 10 to 27 nAm−2 as azimuth reduces from about 12:00MLT to 03:00 and falling from 20 to 10 nAm−2 less steadily as azimuth reduces from 24:00 to 12:00MLT. This result has not been reported before and we suggest it could reflect a number of effects. Firstly, we argue it is consistent with the operation of region-2 field aligned-currents (FACs), which are expected to flow upward into the ring current around 09:00MLT and downward out of the ring current around 14:00MLT. Secondly, we note that it is also consistent with a possible asymmetry in the radial distribution profile of current density (resulting in higher peak at 4– 4.5RE). We note that part of the enhanced current could reflect an increase in the mean AE activity (during the periods in which Cluster samples those MLT).

Patents for plants: context and current status

One of the important themes in any discussion concerning the application of genetic transformation technology in horticulture or elsewhere is the role of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). This term covers both the content of patents and the confidential expertise, usually related to methodology and referred to as “Trade Secrets”. This review will explain the concepts behind patent protection, and will discuss the wide-ranging scope of existing patents that cover novel genotypes of plants as well as all aspects of transgenic technology, from selectable markers and novel promoters to methods of gene introduction. Although few of these patents have any significant commercial value there are a small number of key patents that may restrict the “freedom to operate” of any company seeking to exploit the methods in the production of transgenic varieties. Over the last twenty years, these restrictions have forced extensive cross-licensing between ag-biotech companies and have been one of the driving forces behind the consolidation of these companies. Although such issues may have limited relevance in the horticultural sector, and are often considered to be of little interest to the academic scientist working in the public sector, they are of great importance in any debate about the role of “public-good breeding” and of the relationship between the public and private sectors.

Upper-ocean heat budget and ocean eddy transport in the south-east Pacific in a high-resolution coupled model

We present an analysis of the oceanic heat advection and its variability in the upper 500 m in the southeastern tropical Pacific (100W–75W, 25S–10S) as simulated by the global coupled model HiGEM, which has one of the highest resolutions currently used in long-term integrations. The simulated climatology represents a temperature advection field arising from transient small-scale (<450 km) features, with structures and transport that appear consistent with estimates based on available observational data for the mooring at 20S, 85W. The transient structures are very persistent (>4 months), and in specific locations they generate an important contribution to the local upper-ocean heat budget, characterised by scales of a few hundred kilometres, and periods of over a year. The contribution from such structures to the local, long-term oceanic heat budget however can be of either sign, or vanishing, depending on the location; and, although there appears some organisation in preferential areas of activity, the average over the entire region is small. While several different mechanisms may be responsible for the temperature advection by transients, we find that a significant, and possibly dominant, component is associated with vortices embedded in the large-scale, climatological salinity gradient associated with the fresh intrusion of mid-latitude intermediate water which penetrates north-westward beneath the tropical thermocline

The effect of farming system and fertilisers on pests and natural enemies: A synthesis of current research

Organic agriculture is becoming widespread due to increased consumer demand and regulatory and political support. Organic agriculture can increase arthropod diversity but the response of pests and their natural enemies is variable. Fertiliser is an important component of agricultural systems and its effects on pests and natural enemies will influence agroecosystems. In this study, meta-analysis and vote-counting techniques were used to compare farming system (organic and conventional) and fertiliser effects on arthropod pests and their natural enemies. The meta-analyses indicated that pests generally benefitted from organic techniques, this is particularly evident when experiments were carried out on a smaller scale. Pest responses to organic and conventional fertiliser types were divergent, plant composts benefitted pest arthropods while the opposite was true for manures, this has implications for pest management. Most natural enemy groups responded positively to organic farming although this was not true for Coleopterans. Experimental scale had a prominent impact on natural enemy responses with farm scale studies showing particularly positive effects of organic agriculture on natural enemies. This suggests that it is large scale features of organic agriculture such as landscape heterogeneity that are beneficial to natural enemies. Natural enemy responses to organic fertilisers were positive indicating that field scale management practices including fertiliser can also be important in pest management.

Wind-driven mixing below the oceanic mixed layer

This study describes the turbulent processes in the upper ocean boundary layer forced by a constant surface stress in the absence of the Coriolis force using large-eddy simulation. The boundary layer that develops has a two-layer structure, a well-mixed layer above a stratified shear layer. The depth of the mixed layer is approximately constant, whereas the depth of the shear layer increases with time. The turbulent momentum flux varies approximately linearly from the surface to the base of the shear layer. There is a maximum in the production of turbulence through shear at the base of the mixed layer. The magnitude of the shear production increases with time. The increase is mainly a result of the increase in the turbulent momentum flux at the base of the mixed layer due to the increase in the depth of the boundary layer. The length scale for the shear turbulence is the boundary layer depth. A simple scaling is proposed for the magnitude of the shear production that depends on the surface forcing and the average mixed layer current. The scaling can be interpreted in terms of the divergence of a mean kinetic energy flux. A simple bulk model of the boundary layer is developed to obtain equations describing the variation of the mixed layer and boundary layer depths with time. The model shows that the rate at which the boundary layer deepens does not depend on the stratification of the thermocline. The bulk model shows that the variation in the mixed layer depth is small as long as the surface buoyancy flux is small.