Indicadores avançados para o investimento directo estrangeiro: aplicação ao caso português

RESUMO:O investimento directo estrangeiro tem sido um dos factores com maior importância, no crescimento económico dos países em desenvolvimento, por contribuir para financiar o défice da balança corrente com o exterior, em particular a balança comercial. Num âmbito mais microeconómico é um forte gerador de emprego, proporciona avanços tecnológicos importantes, permitindo a partilha de conhecimentos das tecnologias, o conhecimento de novas formas de gestão e novas formas de marketing. Este trabalho tem como objectivo principal, identificar potenciais variáveis como indicadores avançados para o investimento directo estrangeiro, de modo a antecipar possíveis tendências para a sua evolução. Para alcançar este propósito recorreu-se aos Modelos Autoregressivos Vectoriais (VAR) e à causalidade de Granger com base em dados mensais para o período de Janeiro de 1996 a Setembro de 2010. Foram consideradas variáveis essenvialmente macroeconómicas, tanto do lado da economia receptora como dos países investidores, de modo a reflectirem a actividade económica ao longo do período de estudo. ABSTRACT: The foreign direct investment, has been one of the main factors in the economical development for the countries that are in a process of developing, because it allows the generation of new investments and generate money from the return of the investment, as well as it creates new opportunities for the employment. It allows important technologic advances with the share of the technology Knowledge as well new ways to learn marketing management and enterprise management. This work/research, aims to identify potential variables as advanced indicators for the foreign direct investment, in order to anticipate possible trends of their evolution. To achieve this goal, Vector Autoregressive Models (VAR) and Granger causality based on based on monthly data for the period January between 1996 and September of 2010, were used. Essentially macroeconomic variables were considered, on both the host economy and the countries investors in order to reflect the economic activity throughout the study period.

The right to medical care and its economic consequences: an American dilemma

The concepts of "rights" and of "right to health care" including its evolution in modern times are discussed. The consequences of implementing this right are discussed in economic terms, regarding the situation in the United States of America. A discussion is also included on the limitations of the role of Health Insurance as a measure to solve the problem of providing health care for all individuals.

Multi-attribute classification of housing conservation status in urban regeneration actions

Urban regeneration is more and more a “universal issue” and a crucial factor in the new trends of urban planning. It is no longer only an area of study and research; it became part of new urban and housing policies. Urban regeneration involves complex decisions as a consequence of the multiple dimensions of the problems that include special technical requirements, safety concerns, socio-economic, environmental, aesthetic, and political impacts, among others. This multi-dimensional nature of urban regeneration projects and their large capital investments justify the development and use of state-of-the-art decision support methodologies to assist decision makers. This research focuses on the development of a multi-attribute approach for the evaluation of building conservation status in urban regeneration projects, thus supporting decision makers in their analysis of the problem and in the definition of strategies and priorities of intervention. The methods presented can be embedded into a Geographical Information System for visualization of results. A real-world case study was used to test the methodology, whose results are also presented.

Geographical stratification by socio-economic status: methodology from a household survey with elderly people in S. Paulo, Brazil

Considering that in most developing countries there are still no comprehensive lists of addresses for a given geographical area, there has always been a problem in drawing samples from the community, ensuring randomisation in the selection of the subjects. This article discusses the geographical stratification by socio-economic status used to draw a multistage random sample from a community-based elderly population living in a city like S. Paulo - Brazil. Particular attention is given to the fact that the proportion of elderly people in the total population of a certain area appeared to be a good discriminatory variable for such stratification. The validity of the stratification method is analysed in the light of the socio-economic results obtained in the survey.

The relationships between selected anthropometric and socio-economic data in schoolchildren from different social strata in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The nutritional status according to anthropometric data was assessed in 756 schoolchildren from 5 low-income state schools and in one private school in the same part of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The prevalence of stunting and wasting (cut-off point: <90% ht/age and <80% wt/ht) ranged in the public schools from 6.2 to 15.2% and 3.3 to 24.0%, respectively, whereas the figures for the private school were 2.3 and 3.5%, respectively. Much more obesity was found in the private school (18.0%) than in the state schools (0.8 - 6.2%). Nutritional problems seem to develop more severely in accordance with the increasing age of the children. Therefore it appears advisable to assess schoolchildren within the context of a nutritional surveillance system.

On the economic analysis of response to preventive measures

There are many circumstances in which the effectiveness of preventive measures depends to a large extent on the compliance of the patient in changing his or her behavior or lifestyle. It is shown how economic techniques can be used (i) to describe the rationale of individuals and predict their behavior (Section 2); and (ii) to assess preventive measures that, by requiring a change of conduct, imply "costs" to the individual due to a decline in the quality of life (Appendix). Cigarette smoking and coronary heart disease are used as an illustration. While the analysis of Section 2 uses graphical techniques, a simple textbook-type of lifetime utility model with a mathematical emphasis is used in the Appendix. It is also shown that techniques often used to assess health care programs such as the QALYs (Quality-Adjusted Life Years) are inappropriate to the evaluation of preventive programs aiming at behavioral changes. Finally, topics that call for further research are indicated.

Market trends and dilemmas of parenthal participation in schools

Este artigo descreve e analisa o impacto da definição e implementação de um novo modelo de gestão dos estabelecimentos de ensino não superior (Dec-lei nº115_A/98) nos padrões de cidadania e equidade do ensino público Português. A institucionalização deste modelo representa uma mudança na matriz centralista e burocrática do referido ensino público e sugere uma aproximação às concepções neo-gerencialistas e neo-liberais que, desde meados dos anos 80, têm dominado a agenda política de muitos países desenvolvidos e de alguns organismos internacionais. Os resultados da pesquisa sugerem que a implementação do novo modelo de gestão contribuiu para reforçar os padrões de diferenciação social no ensino básico (1ºciclo) e, mais especificamente, para preservar as .vantagens competitivas. da classe média na escola pública Portuguesa.

Geographical patterns of proportionate mortality for the most common causes of death in Brazil

Mortality due to chronic diseases has been increasing in all regions of Brazil with corresponding decreases in mortality from infectious diseases. The geographical variation in proportionate mortality for chronic diseases for 17 Brazilian state capitals for the year 1985 and their association with socio-economic variables and infectious disease was studied. Calculations were made of correlation coefficients of proportionate mortality for adults of 30 years or above due to ischaemic heart disease, stroke and cancer of the lung, the breast and stomach with 3 socio-economic variables, race, and mortality due to infectious disease. Linear regression analysis included as independent variables the % of illiteracy, % of whites, % of houses with piped water, mean income, age group, sex, and % of deaths caused by infectious disease. The dependent variables were the % of deaths due to each one of the chronic diseases studied by age-sex group. Chronic diseases were an important cause of death in all regions of Brazil. Ischaemic heart diseases, stroke and malignant neoplasms accounted for more than 34% of the mortality in each of the 17 capitals studied. Proportionate cause-specific mortality varied markedly among state capitals. Ranges were 6.3-19.5% for ischaemic heart diseases, 8.3-25.4% for stroke, 2.3-10.4% for infections and 12.2-21.5% for malignant neoplasm. Infectious disease mortality had the highest (p < 0.001) correlation with all the four socio-economic variables studied and ischaemic heart disease showed the second highest correlation (p < 0.05). Higher socio-economic level was related to a lower % of infectious diseases and a higher % of ischaemic heart diseases. Mortality due to breast cancer and stroke was not associated with socio-economic variables. Multivariate linear regression models explained 59% of the variance among state capitals for mortality due to ischaemic heart disease, 50% for stroke, 28% for lung cancer, 24% for breast cancer and 40% for stomach cancer. There were major differences in the proportionate mortality due to chronic diseases among the capitals which could not be accounted for by the social and environmental factors and by the mortality due to infectious disease.

On the concept of endogenous volatility

Most financial and economic time-series display a strong volatility around their trends. The difficulty in explaining this volatility has led economists to interpret it as exogenous, i.e., as the result of forces that lie outside the scope of the assumed economic relations. Consequently, it becomes hard or impossible to formulate short-run forecasts on asset prices or on values of macroeconomic variables. However, many random looking economic and financial series may, in fact, be subject to deterministic irregular behavior, which can be measured and modelled. We address the notion of endogenous volatility and exemplify the concept with a simple business-cycles model.

Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

Do economic and financial firm's situation affect the quality if financial reports?

We investigate whether firms’ economic and financial situation influence the Quality of their Financial Reports (FRQ). FRQ is fundamental for investors and it affects the international capital movements [Bradshaw et al. (2004)] and Gelos and Wei (2005)]. Following Schipper and Vicent (2003) we use two issues to access earnings quality: abnormal accruals and earnings persistence. For seventeen European countries, we find evidence that the economic performance affects FRQ. Big firms and those with high current earnings exhibit better financial information. These results are robust since they don’t depend on FRQ proxy and we have the same evidence when we estimate regression with economical and financial factors separately or together. About financial situation, it seems not to affect FRQ. However, in high leveraged firms, the capital structure becomes determinant.

Trends in properties of para-substituted 3-(phenylhydrazo)pentane-2,4-diones

Trends between the Hammett's sigma(p) and related normal sigma(n)(p), inductive sigma(I), resonance sigma(R), negative sigma(-)(p) and positive sigma(+)(p) polar conjugation and Taft's sigma(o)(p) substituent constants and the N-H center dot center dot center dot O distance, delta(N-H) NMR chemical shift, oxidation potential (E-p/2(ox), measured in this study by cyclic voltammetry (CV)) and thermodynamic parameters (pK, Delta G(0), Delta H-0 and Delta S-0) of the dissociation process of unsubstituted 3-(phenylhydrazo)pentane-2,4-dione (HL1) and its para-substituted chloro (HL2), carboxy (HL3), fluoro (HL4) and nitro (HL5) derivatives were recognized. The best fits were found for sigma(p) and/or sigma(-)(p) in the cases of d(N center dot center dot center dot O), delta(N-H) and E-p/2(ox), showing the importance of resonance and conjugation effects in such properties, whereas for the above thermodynamic properties the inductive effects (sigma(I)) are dominant. HL2 exists in the hydrazo form in DMSO solution and in the solid state and contains an intramolecular H-bond with the N center dot center dot center dot O distance of 2.588(3)angstrom. It was also established that the dissociation process of HL1-5 is non-spontaneous, endothermic and entropically unfavourable, and that the increase in the inductive effect (sigma(I)) of para-substitutents (-H < -Cl < -COOH < -F < -NO2) leads to the corresponding growth of the N center dot center dot center dot O distance and decrease of the pK and of the changes of Gibbs free energy, of enthalpy and of entropy for the HL1-5 acid dissociation process. The electrochemical behaviour of HL1-5 was interpreted using theoretical calculations at the DFT/HF hybrid level, namely in terms of HOMO and LUMO compositions, and of reactivities induced by anodic and cathodic electron-transfers. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trends in the modes of delivery and their impact on perinatal mortality rates

OBJECTIVE: To determine changes in the incidence of vaginal deliveries, cesarean sections, and forceps deliveries and their potential association with fetal, early neonatal, and perinatal mortality rates over time. METHODS: A retrospective study was carried out and the occurrence of deliveries supervised by university services between January 1991 and December 2000 was determined. Data regarding fetal, early neonatal, and perinatal deaths were assessed using obstetric and pediatric records and autopsy reports. RESULTS: Of a total of 33,360 deliveries, the incidence of vaginal deliveries, cesarean sections, and forceps deliveries was relatively steady (around 60, 30, and 10%, respectively) while, at the same time, there was a marked reduction in fetal mortality (from 33.3 to 13.0‰), early neonatal mortality (from 30.6 to 9.0‰), and perinatal mortality (from 56.4 to 19.3‰). CONCLUSIONS: The marked reduction in perinatal mortality rates seen during the study period without an increase in cesarean sections indicates that the decrease in perinatal mortality was not impacted by cesarean section rates. The plausible hypothesis seems to be that the reduction in perinatal mortality of deliveries performed under the supervision of university services was more likely to be associated with better neonatal care rather than the mode of delivery.

Data mining applications in power systems - case-studies and future trends

Presently power system operation produces huge volumes of data that is still treated in a very limited way. Knowledge discovery and machine learning can make use of these data resulting in relevant knowledge with very positive impact. In the context of competitive electricity markets these data is of even higher value making clear the trend to make data mining techniques application in power systems more relevant. This paper presents two cases based on real data, showing the importance of the use of data mining for supporting demand response and for supporting player strategic behavior.