Modeling the Effect of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River Flow, Kenya

Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.

A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

Composition of sediments from the Arabian Sea

Thirty seven deep-sea sediment cores from the Arabian Sea were studied geochemically (49 major and trace elements) for four time slices during the Holocene and the last glacial, and in one high sedimentation rate core (century scale resolution) to detect tracers of past variations in the intensity of the atmospheric monsoon circulation and its hydrographic expression in the ocean surface. This geochemical multi-tracer approach, coupled with additional information on the grain size composition of the clastic fraction, the bulk carbonate and biogenic opal contents makes it possible to characterize the sedimentological regime in detail. Sediments characterized by a specific elemental composition (enrichment) originated from the following sources: river suspensions from the Tapti and Narbada, draining the Indian Deccan traps (Ti, Sr); Indus sediments and dust from Rajasthan and Pakistan (Rb, Cs); dust from Iran and the Persian Gulf (Al, Cr); dust from central Arabia (Mg); dust from East Africa and the Red Sea (Zr/Hf, Ti/Al). Corg, Cd, Zn, Ba, Pb, U, and the HREE are associated with the intensity of upwelling in the western Arabian Sea, but only those patterns that are consistently reproduced by all of these elements can be directly linked with the intensity of the southwest monsoon. Relying on information from a single element can be misleading, as each element is affected by various other processes than upwelling intensity and nutrient content of surface water alone. The application of the geochemical multi-tracer approach indicates that the intensity of the southwest monsoon was low during the LGM, declined to a minimum from 15,000-13,000 14C year BP, intensified slightly at the end of this interval, was almost stable during the Bölling, Alleröd and the Younger Dryas, but then intensified in two abrupt successions at the end of the Younger Dryas (9900 14C year BP) and especially in a second event during the early Holocene (8800 14C year BP). Dust discharge by northwesterly winds from Arabia exhibited a similar evolution, but followed an opposite course: high during the LGM with two primary sources-the central Arabian desert and the dry Persian Gulf region. Dust discharge from both regions reached a pronounced maximum at 15,000-13,000 14C year. At the end of this interval, however, the dust plumes from the Persian Gulf area ceased dramatically, whereas dust discharge from central Arabia decreased only slightly. Dust discharge from East Africa and the Red Sea increased synchronously with the two major events of southwest monsoon intensification as recorded in the nutrient content of surface waters. In addition to the tracers of past dust flux and surface water nutrient content, the geochemical multi-tracer approach provides information on the history of deep sea ventilation (Mo, S), which was much lower during the last glacial maximum than during the Holocene. The multi-tracer approach-i.e. a few sedimentological parameters plus a set of geochemical tracers widely available from various multi-element analysis techniques-is a highly applicable technique for studying the complex sedimentation patterns of an ocean basin, and, specifically in the case of the Arabian Sea, can even reveal the seasonal structure of climate change.

Raw X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scannings and radiocarbon age of sediment cores GeoB8331-4, and GeoB8322-2

Variations in the sediment input to the Namaqualand mudbelt during the Holocene are assessed using an integrative terrestrial to marine, source to sink approach. Geochemical and Sr and Nd isotopic signatures are used to distinguish fluvial sediment source areas. Relative to the sediments of the Olifants River, craton outcrops in the northern Orange River catchment have a more radiogenic Sr and a more unradiogenic Nd isotopic signature. Furthermore, upper Orange River sediments are rich in heavier elements such as Ti and Fe derived from the chemical weathering of Drakensberg flood basalt. Suspension load signatures change along the Orange River's westward transit as northern catchments contribute physical weathering products from the Fish and Molopo River catchment area. Marine cores offshore of the Olifants (GeoB8323-2) and Orange (GeoB8331-4) River mouths show pulses of increased contribution of Olifants River and upper Orange River input, respectively. These pulses coincide with intervals of increased terrestrial organic matter flux and increased paleo-production at the respective core sites. We attribute this to an increase in fluvial activity and vegetation cover in the adjacent catchments during more humid climate conditions. The contrast in the timing of these wet phases in the catchment areas reflects the bipolar behavior of the South African summer and winter rainfall zones. While rainfall in the Orange River catchment is related to southward shifts in the ICTZ, rainfall in the Olifants catchment is linked to northward shifts in Southern Hemisphere Westerly storm tracks. The later may also have increased southern Benguela upwelling in the past by reducing the shedding of Agulhas eddies into the Atlantic. The high-resolution records of latitudinal shifts in these atmospheric circulation systems correspond to late Holocene centennial-millennial scale climate variability evident in Antarctic ice core records. The mudbelt cores indicate that phases of high summer rainfall zone and low winter rainfall zone humidity (at ca. 2.8 and 1 ka BP) may be synchronous with Antarctic warming events. On the other hand, dry conditions in the summer rainfall zone along with wet conditions in the winter rainfall zone (at ca 3.3, 2 and 0.5 ka BP) may be associated with Antarctic cooling events.

Estudo do balanço de umidade por meio de modelos regionais para o clima do passado e do futuro sobre a América do Sul

In the context of climate change over South America (SA) has been observed that the combination of high temperatures and rain more temperatures less rainfall, cause different impacts such as extreme precipitation events, favorable conditions for fires and droughts. As a result, these regions face growing threat of water shortage, local or generalized. Thus, the water availability in Brazil depends largely on the weather and its variations in different time scales. In this sense, the main objective of this research is to study the moisture budget through regional climate models (RCM) from Project Regional Climate Change Assessments for La Plata Basin (CLARIS-LPB) and combine these RCM through two statistical techniques in an attempt to improve prediction on three areas of AS: Amazon (AMZ), Northeast Brazil (NEB) and the Plata Basin (LPB) in past climates (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100). The moisture transport on AS was investigated through the moisture fluxes vertically integrated. The main results showed that the average fluxes of water vapor in the tropics (AMZ and NEB) are higher across the eastern and northern edges, thus indicating that the contributions of the trade winds of the North Atlantic and South are equally important for the entry moisture during the months of JJA and DJF. This configuration was observed in all the models and climates. In comparison climates, it was found that the convergence of the flow of moisture in the past weather was smaller in the future in various regions and seasons. Similarly, the majority of the SPC simulates the future climate, reduced precipitation in tropical regions (AMZ and NEB), and an increase in the LPB region. The second phase of this research was to carry out combination of RCM in more accurately predict precipitation, through the multiple regression techniques for components Main (C.RPC) and convex combination (C.EQM), and then analyze and compare combinations of RCM (ensemble). The results indicated that the combination was better in RPC represent precipitation observed in both climates. Since, in addition to showing values be close to those observed, the technique obtained coefficient of correlation of moderate to strong magnitude in almost every month in different climates and regions, also lower dispersion of data (RMSE). A significant advantage of the combination of methods was the ability to capture extreme events (outliers) for the study regions. In general, it was observed that the wet C.EQM captures more extreme, while C.RPC can capture more extreme dry climates and in the three regions studied.

Impacts of the Madden-Julian oscillation on intraseasonal precipitation over northeast Brazil

Este estudo tem como objetivo investigar os impactos da oscilação de Madden-Julian (OMJ) na precipitação da região Nordeste do Brasil (NEB). Para tanto foram utilizados dados diários de precipitação baseados em 492 pluviômetros distribuídos na região e cobrindo um período de 30 anos (1981 − 2010). As análises através de composições de anomalias de precipitação, radiação de onda longa e fluxo de umidade, foram obtidas com base no índice da OMJ desenvolvido por Jones-Carvalho. Para distinguir o sinal da OMJ de outros padrões de variabilidade climática, todos os dados diários foram filtrados na escala de 20 − 90 dias; portanto somente dias classificados como eventos da OMJ foram considerados nas composições. Uma análise preliminar baseada apenas nos dados de precipitação foi feita para uma pequena área localizada no interior semiárido do NEB, conhecida como Seridó. Essa microrregião é uma das áreas mais secas do NEB e foi reconhecida pela Convenção das Nações Unidas para o Combate à Desertificação e Mitigação dos Efeitos das Secas como particularmente vulnerável à desertificação. Composições de anomalias de precipitação foram feitas para cada uma das oito fases da OMJ durante Fevereiro-Maio (principal período chuvoso da microrregião). Os resultados mostraram a existência de variações significativas nos padrões de precipitação (de precipitação excessiva à deficiente) associados à propagação da OMJ. A combinação dos sinais de precipitação obtidos durantes as fases úmidas e secas da OMJ mostrou que a diferença corresponde cerca de 50 − 150% de modulação das chuvas na microrregião. Em seguida, uma investigação abrangente sobre o papel da OMJ sobre toda a região Nordeste foi feita considerando-se as quatro estações do ano. Os resultados mostraram que os impactos da OMJ na precipitação intrassazonal do NEB apresentam forte sazonalidade. A maior coerência espacial dos sinais de precipitação ocorreram durante o verão austral, quando cerca de 80% das estações pluviométricas apresentaram anomalias positivas de precipitação durante as fases 1 − 2 da OMJ e anomalias negativas de precipitação nas fases 5 − 6 da oscilação. Embora impactos da OMJ na precipitação intrassazonal tenham sido encontrados na maioria das localidades e em todas as estações do ano, eles apresentaram variações na magnitude dos sinais e dependem da fase da oscilação. As anomalias de precipitação do NEB observadas são explicadas através da interação existente entre as ondas de Kelvin-Rossby acopladas convectivamente e as características climáticas predominantes sobre a região em cada estação do ano. O aumento de precipitação observado sobre a maior parte do NEB durante o verão e primavera austrais encontra-se associado com o fluxo de umidade de oeste (regime de oeste), o qual favorece a atividade convectiva em amplas áreas da América do Sul tropical. Por outro lado, as anomalias de precipitação durante o inverno e outono austrais apresentaram uma variabilidade espacial mais complexa. Durante estas estações, as anomalias de precipitação observadas nas estações localizadas na costa leste do NEB dependem da intensidade do anticiclone do Atlântico Sul, o qual é modulado em grande parte por ondas de Rossby. As características topográficas do NEB parecem desempenhar um papel importante na variabilidade observada na precipitação, principalmente nestas áreas costeiras. A intensificação do anticiclone aumenta a convergência dos ventos alísios na costa contribuindo para a ocorrência de precipitação observada à barlavento do planalto da Borborema. Por outro lado, o aumento da subsidência parece ser responsável pelos déficits de precipitação observados à sotavento. Tais condições mostraram-se típicas durante o predomínio do regime de leste sobre a região tropical da América do Sul e o NEB, durante o qual ocorre uma diminuição no fluxo de umidade proveniente da Amazônia.

(Table 1) Age determination of sediment core KY07-04-PC1

Variations in Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperature and oxygen isotope ratio (d18O) of the surface water in the northern East China Sea (ECS) were reconstructed with high resolution during the last 18 kyr using planktic foraminifera. Millennial-scale variations between warmer, more saline surface water and cooler, less saline surface water were recognized during the early deglacial period and the Holocene, suggesting changes in the mixing ratio between the Kuroshio Water and the Changjiang Diluted Water. Stronger East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation events in south China are identified at 10.5, 8.8, 7.0, 5.3, 4.7, 2.9, 1.7, and 0.5 ka, based on sea surface salinity (SSS) records of the northern ECS. Weaker EASM precipitation events are also detected at 9.3, 8.3, 7.3, 6.0, 3.3, 2.3, 0.7, and 0.4 ka during the Holocene. These events agree with the maxima in d18O records of stalagmites from various parts of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River drainage. This agreement supports that our SSS record properly captures the millennial-scale dry (less EASM precipitation) events over the drainage basin of the Changjiang River during the Holocene. These dry events are also in good agreement with North Atlantic ice-rafted events, suggesting a teleconnection between North Atlantic climate and the EASM during the Holocene.

Climate variability in the Aegean Sea (marine record M2, Athos basin) during the past 1500 years

We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multi-decadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 °C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ~2 °C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 ?D 'unknown' and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

(Table 1) Diatom events for AND1-1B, CIROS-2, DVDP-10, and DVDP-11 cores including observed and placed depths

Late Neogene stratigraphy of southern Victoria Land Basin is revealed in coastal and offshore drill cores and a network of seismic data in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. These data preserve a record of ice sheet response to global climate variability and progressive cooling through the past 5 million years. Application of a composite standard age model for diatom event stratigraphy to the McMurdo Sound drill cores provides an internally precise mechanism to correlate stratigraphic data and derive an event history for the basin. These marine records are indirectly compared to data obtained from geological outcrop in the Transantarctic Mountains to produce an integrated history of Antarctic Ice Sheet response to climate variability from the early Pliocene to Recent. Four distinct chronostratigraphic intervals reflect stages and steps in a transition from a relatively warm early Pliocene Antarctic coastal climate to modern cold polar conditions. Several of these stages and steps correlate with global events identified via geochemical proxy data recovered from deep ocean cores in mid to low latitudes. These correlations allow us to consider linkages between the high southern latitudes and tropical regions and establish a temporal framework to examine leads and lags in the climate system through the late Neogene and Quaternary. The relative influence of climate-tectonic feedbacks is discussed in light of glacial erosion and isostatic rebound that also influence the history along the Southern Victoria Land coastal margin.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, and Lithophyllum sp. and Feldmannia spp. coverage and dry weight during experiments, 2009

Climate-driven change represents the cumulative effect of global through local-scale conditions, and understanding their manifestation at local scales can empower local management. Change in the dominance of habitats is often the product of local nutrient pollution that occurs at relatively local scales (i.e. catchment scale), a critical scale of management at which global impacts will manifest. We tested whether forecasted global-scale change [elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and subsequent ocean acidification] and local stressors (elevated nutrients) can combine to accelerate the expansion of filamentous turfs at the expense of calcifying algae (kelp understorey). Our results not only support this model of future change, but also highlight the synergistic effects of future CO2 and nutrient concentrations on the abundance of turfs. These results suggest that global and local stressors need to be assessed in meaningful combinations so that the anticipated effects of climate change do not create the false impression that, however complex, climate change will produce smaller effects than reality. These findings empower local managers because they show that policies of reducing local stressors (e.g. nutrient pollution) can reduce the effects of global stressors not under their governance (e.g. ocean acidification). The connection between research and government policy provides an example whereby knowledge (and decision making) across local through global scales provides solutions to some of the most vexing challenges for attaining social goals of sustainability, biological conservation and economic development.

Pollen record from Eifel maar

A new interglacial pollen sequence from the Döttinger dry maar in the Eifel region of the Rheinish Schield is presented. Palynology is used to correlated to several classical north German Holsteinian sites. The lake sediments reveal the complete interglacial and also 60 m of laminated sediments from the glacial preceding the Holsteinian. The interglacial section indicates limnic conditions in its lower part and telmatic conditions in its upper part with an intermediate episode of peat formation. Ash layers document internsive volcansim during the interglacial in the Eifel region. Some of the north German Holsteinian sites reval spikes of high abundance of Pinus, Beutal and Poaceae and/or setbacks of more demanding taxa during the interglacial, often interpreted as cold events. The Döttingen profile shows similar pattern, but with little response from the thermophilous pollen taxa. In the Döttingen sequence these vegetation 'anomalies' are preceded, or accompanied by phases of active volcanism. The role/interaction of climate and/or volcanism as a likely cause for these vegetation 'anomalies' ist still to be quantified.

(Table 1) Major element composition of core 5022-2CP, Laguna Potrok Aike, southern Patagonia

Total organic carbon, total inorganic carbon, biogenic silica content and total organic carbon/total nitrogen ratios of the Laguna Potrok Aike lacustrine sediment record are used to reconstruct the environmental history of south-east Patagonia during the past 51 ka in high resolution. High lake level conditions are assumed to have prevailed during the Last Glacial, as sediments are carbonate-free. Increased runoff linked to permafrost and reduced evaporation due to colder temperatures and reduced influence of Southern Hemispheric Westerlies (SHW) may have caused these high lake levels with lake productivity being low and organic matter mainly of algal or cyanobacterial origin. Aquatic moss growth and diatom blooms occurred synchronously with southern hemispheric glacial warming events such as the Antarctic A-events, the postglacial warming following the LGM and the Younger Dryas chronozone. During these times, a combination of warmer climatic conditions with related thawing permafrost could have increased the allochthonous input of nutrients and in combination with warmer surface waters increased aquatic moss growth and diatom production. The SHW were not observed to affect southern Patagonia during the Last Glacial. The Holocene presents a completely different lacustrine system because (a) permafrost no longer inhibits infiltration nor emits meltwater pulses and (b) the positioning of the SHW over the investigated area gives rise to strong and dry winds. Under these conditions total organic carbon, total organic carbon/total nitrogen ratios and biogenic silica cease to be first order productivity indicators. On the one hand, the biogenic silica is influenced by dissolution of diatoms due to higher salinity and pH of the lake water under evaporative stress characterizing low lake levels. On the other hand, total organic carbon and total organic carbon/total nitrogen profiles are influenced by reworked macrophytes from freshly exposed lake level terraces during lowstands. Total inorganic carbon remains the most reliable proxy for climatic variations during the Holocene as high precipitation of carbonates can be linked to low lake levels and high autochthonous production. The onset of inorganic carbon precipitation has been associated with the southward shift of the SHW over the latitudes of Laguna Potrok Aike. The refined age-depth model of this record suggests that this shift occurred around 9.4 cal. ka BP.