Bayesian generalized linear models for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests

With the recognition of the importance of evidence-based medicine, there is an emerging need for methods to systematically synthesize available data. Specifically, methods to provide accurate estimates of test characteristics for diagnostic tests are needed to help physicians make better clinical decisions. To provide more flexible approaches for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests, we developed three Bayesian generalized linear models. Two of these models, a bivariate normal and a binomial model, analyzed pairs of sensitivity and specificity values while incorporating the correlation between these two outcome variables. Noninformative independent uniform priors were used for the variance of sensitivity, specificity and correlation. We also applied an inverse Wishart prior to check the sensitivity of the results. The third model was a multinomial model where the test results were modeled as multinomial random variables. All three models can include specific imaging techniques as covariates in order to compare performance. Vague normal priors were assigned to the coefficients of the covariates. The computations were carried out using the 'Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling' implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We investigated the properties of the three proposed models through extensive simulation studies. We also applied these models to a previously published meta-analysis dataset on cervical cancer as well as to an unpublished melanoma dataset. In general, our findings show that the point estimates of sensitivity and specificity were consistent among Bayesian and frequentist bivariate normal and binomial models. However, in the simulation studies, the estimates of the correlation coefficient from Bayesian bivariate models are not as good as those obtained from frequentist estimation regardless of which prior distribution was used for the covariance matrix. The Bayesian multinomial model consistently underestimated the sensitivity and specificity regardless of the sample size and correlation coefficient. In conclusion, the Bayesian bivariate binomial model provides the most flexible framework for future applications because of its following strengths: (1) it facilitates direct comparison between different tests; (2) it captures the variability in both sensitivity and specificity simultaneously as well as the intercorrelation between the two; and (3) it can be directly applied to sparse data without ad hoc correction. ^

The diagnostic value of a 12-lead electrocardiogram in patients with cardiac tamponade due to a malignant pericardial effusion

Background. Cardiac tamponade can occur when a large amount of fluid, gas, singly or in combination, accumulating within the pericardium, compresses the heart causing circulatory compromise. Although previous investigators have found the 12-lead ECG to have a poor predictive value in diagnosing cardiac tamponade, very few studies have evaluated it as a follow up tool for ruling in or ruling out tamponade in patients with previously diagnosed malignant pericardial effusions. ^ Methods. 127 patients with malignant pericardial effusions at the MD Anderson Cancer Center were included in this retrospective study. While 83 of these patients had a cardiac tamponade diagnosed by echocardiographic criteria (Gold standard), 44 did not. We computed the sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) for individual and combinations of ECG abnormalities. Individual ECG abnormalities were also entered singly into a univariate logistic regression model to predict tamponade. ^ Results. For patients with effusions of all sizes, electrical alternans had a Se, Sp, PPV and NPV of 22.61%, 97.61%, 95% and 39.25% respectively. These parameters for low voltage complexes were 55.95%, 74.44%, 81.03%, 46.37% respectively. The presence of all three ECG abnormalities had a Se = 8.33%, Sp = 100%, PPV = 100% and NPV = 35.83% while the presence of at least one of the three ECG abnormalities had a Se = 89.28%, Sp = 46.51%, PPV = 76.53%, NPV = 68.96%. For patients with effusions of all sizes electrical alternans had an OR of 12.28 (1.58–95.17, p = 0.016), while the presence of at least one ECG abnormality had an OR of 7.25 (2.9–18.1, p = 0.000) in predicting tamponade. ^ Conclusions. Although individual ECG abnormalities had low sensitivities, specificities, NPVs and PPVs with the exception of electrical alternans, the presence of at least one of the three ECG abnormalities had a high sensitivity in diagnosing cardiac tamponade. This could point to its potential use as a screening test with a correspondingly high NPV to rule out a diagnosis of tamponade in patients with malignant pericardial effusions. This could save expensive echocardiographic assessments in patients with previously diagnosed pericardial effusions. ^

POPULATION ASSESSMENTS OF INFECTION WITH SCHISTOSOMA MANSONI: EFFECTS OF BIAS CAUSED BY THE RELATIVE SENSITIVITY OF DIAGNOSTIC TECHNIQUES (PUERTO RICO)

This study establishes the extent and relevance of bias of population estimates of prevalence, incidence, and intensity of infection with Schistosoma mansoni caused by the relative sensitivity of stool examination techniques. The population studied was Parcelas de Boqueron in Las Piedras, Puerto Rico, where the Centers for Disease Control, had undertaken a prospective community-based study of infection with S. mansoni in 1972. During each January of the succeeding years stool specimens from this population were processed according to the modified Ritchie concentration (MRC) technique. During January 1979 additional stool specimens were collected from 30 individuals selected on the basis of their mean S. mansoni egg output during previous years. Each specimen was divided into ten 1-gm aliquots and three 42-mg aliquots. The relationship of egg counts obtained with the Kato-Katz (KK) thick smear technique as a function of the mean of ten counts obtained with the MRC technique was established by means of regression analysis. Additionally, the effect of fecal sample size and egg excretion level on technique sensitivity was evaluated during a blind assessment of single stool specimen samples, using both examination methods, from 125 residents with documented S. mansoni infections. The regression equation was: Ln KK = 2.3324 + 0.6319 Ln MRC, and the coefficient of determination (r('2)) was 0.73. The regression equation was then utilized to correct the term "m" for sample size in the expression P ((GREATERTHEQ) 1 egg) = 1 - e('-ms), which estimates the probability P of finding at least one egg as a function of the mean S. mansoni egg output "m" of the population and the effective stool sample size "s" utilized by the coprological technique. This algorithm closely approximated the observed sensitivity of the KK and MRC tests when these were utilized to blindly screen a population of known parasitologic status for infection with S. mansoni. In addition, the algorithm was utilized to adjust the apparent prevalence of infection for the degree of functional sensitivity exhibited by the diagnostic test. This permitted the estimation of true prevalence of infection and, hence, a means for correcting estimates of incidence of infection. ^

Performance of HbA1c for classifying diabetes and diagnostic threshold for diabetes among the Mexican American border community

Objective. In 2009, the International Expert Committee recommended the use of HbA1c test for diagnosis of diabetes. Although it has been recommended for the diagnosis of diabetes, its precise test performance among Mexican Americans is uncertain. A strong “gold standard” would rely on repeated blood glucose measurement on different days, which is the recommended method for diagnosing diabetes in clinical practice. Our objective was to assess test performance of HbA1c in detecting diabetes and pre-diabetes against repeated fasting blood glucose measurement for the Mexican American population living in United States-Mexico border. Moreover, we wanted to find out a specific and precise threshold value of HbA1c for Diabetes Mellitus (DM) and pre-diabetes for this high-risk population which might assist in better diagnosis and better management of patient diabetes. ^ Research design and methods. We used CCHC dataset for our study. In 2004, the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort (CCHC), now numbering 2,574, was established drawn from randomly selected households on the basis of 2000 Census tract data. The CCHC study randomly selected a subset of people (aged 18-64 years) in CCHC cohort households to determine the influence of SES on diabetes and obesity. Among the participants in Cohort-2000, 67.15% are female; all are Hispanic. ^ Individuals were defined as having diabetes mellitus (Fasting plasma glucose [FPG] ≥ 126 mg/dL or pre-diabetes (100 ≤ FPG < 126 mg/dL). HbA1c test performance was evaluated using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. Moreover, change-point models were used to determine HbA1c thresholds compatible with FPG thresholds for diabetes and pre-diabetes. ^ Results. When assessing Fasting Plasma Glucose (FPG) is used to detect diabetes, the sensitivity and specificity of HbA1c≥ 6.5% was 75% and 87% respectively (area under the curve 0.895). Additionally, when assessing FPG to detect pre-diabetes, the sensitivity and specificity of HbA1c≥ 6.0% (ADA recommended threshold) was 18% and 90% respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of HbA1c≥ 5.7% (International Expert Committee recommended threshold) for detecting pre-diabetes was 31% and 78% respectively. ROC analyses suggest HbA1c as a sound predictor of diabetes mellitus (area under the curve 0.895) but a poorer predictor for pre-diabetes (area under the curve 0.632). ^ Conclusions. Our data support the current recommendations for use of HbA1c in the diagnosis of diabetes for the Mexican American population as it has shown reasonable sensitivity, specificity and accuracy against repeated FPG measures. However, use of HbA1c may be premature for detecting pre-diabetes in this specific population because of the poor sensitivity with FPG. It might be the case that HbA1c is differentiating the cases more effectively who are at risk of developing diabetes. Following these pre-diabetic individuals for a longer-term for the detection of incident diabetes may lead to more confirmatory result.^

Epidemiological characteristics and diagnostic approach in patients admitted to the emergency room for transient loos of consciousness: Group for Syncope Study in the Emergency Room (GESINUR) study

Aims: To assess the clinical presentation and acute management of patients with transient loss of consciousness (T-LOC) in the emergency department (ED). Methods and results: A multi-centre prospective observational study was carried out in 19 Spanish hospitals over 1 month. The patients included were 14 years old and were admitted to the ED because of an episode of T-LOC. Questionnaires and corresponding electrocardiograms (ECGs) were reviewed by a Steering Committee (SC) to unify diagnostic criteria, evaluate adherence to guidelines, and diagnose correctly the ECGs. We included 1419 patients (prevalence, 1.14%).ECG was performed in 1335 patients (94%) in the ED: 498 (37.3%) ECGs were classified as abnormal. The positive diagnostic yield ranged from 0% for the chest X-ray to 12% for the orthostatic test. In the ED, 1217 (86%) patients received a final diagnosis of syncope, whereas the remaining 202 (14%) were diagnosed of non-syncopal transient lossof consciousness (NST-LOC). After final review by the SC, 1080 patients (76%) were diagnosed of syncope, whereas 339 (24%) were diagnosed of NST-LOC (P , 0.001). Syncope was diagnosed correctly in 84% of patients. Only 25% of patients with T-LOC were admitted to hospitals. Conclusion Adherence to clinical guidelines for syncope management was low; many diagnostic tests were performed with low diagnostic yield. Important differences were observed between syncope diagnoses at the ED and by SC decision.

Advanced data acquisition system implementation for the ITER Neutron Diagnostic use case using EPICS and FlexRIO technology on a PXIe platform

In the framework of the ITER Control Breakdown Structure (CBS), Plant System Instrumentation & Control (I&C) defines the hardware and software required to control one or more plant systems [1]. For diagnostics, most of the complex Plant System I&C are to be delivered by ITER Domestic Agencies (DAs). As an example for the DAs, ITER Organization (IO) has developed several use cases for diagnostics Plant System I&C that fully comply with guidelines presented in the Plant Control Design Handbook (PCDH) [2]. One such use case is for neutron diagnostics, specifically the Fission Chamber (FC), which is responsible for delivering time-resolved measurements of neutron source strength and fusion power to aid in assessing the functional performance of ITER [3]. ITER will deploy four Fission Chamber units, each consisting of three individual FC detectors. Two of these detectors contain Uranium 235 for Neutron detection, while a third "dummy" detector will provide gamma and noise detection. The neutron flux from each MFC is measured by the three methods: . Counting Mode: measures the number of individual pulses and their location in the record. Pulse parameters (threshold and width) are user configurable. . Campbelling Mode (Mean Square Voltage): measures the RMS deviation in signal amplitude from its average value. .Current Mode: integrates the signal amplitude over the measurement period

Aberrant platelet-derived growth factor alpha-receptor transcript as a diagnostic marker for early human germ cell tumors of the adult testis.

Testicular germ cell tumors are the most common form of cancer in young adult males. They result from a derangement of primordial germ cells, and they grow out from a noninvasive carcinoma-in-situ precursor. Since carcinoma in situ can readily be cured by low-dose irradiation, there is a great incentive for non- or minimally invasive methods for detection of carcinoma in situ. We have recently shown that human Tera-2 embryonal carcinoma cells, obtained from a nonseminomatous testicular germ cell tumor, show alternative splicing and alternative promoter use of the platelet-derived growth factor alpha-receptor gene, giving rise to a unique 1.5-kb transcript. In this study we have set up a reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction strategy for characterization of the various transcripts for this receptor. Using this technique, we show that a panel of 18 seminomas and II nonseminomatous testicular germ cell tumors all express the 1.5-kb transcript. In addition, a panel of 27 samples of testis parenchyma with established carcinoma in situ were all found to be positive for the 1.5-kb transcript, while parenchyma lacking carcinoma in situ, placenta, and control semen were all negative. These data show that the 1.5-kb platelet-derived growth factor alpha-receptor transcript can be used as a highly selective marker for detection of early stages of human testicular germ cell tumors.

Diagnostic validity of clinical signs associated with a large exophoria at near

Purpose. To analyze the diagnostic validity of accommodative and binocular tests in a sample of patients with a large near exophoria with moderate to severe symptoms. Methods. Two groups of patients between 19 and 35 years were recruited from a university clinic: 33 subjects with large exophoria at near vision and moderate or high visual discomfort and 33 patients with normal heterophoria and low visual discomfort. Visual discomfort was defined using the Conlon survey. A refractive exam and an exhaustive evaluation of accommodation and vergence were assessed. Diagnostic validity by means of receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, sensitivity (S), specificity (Sp), and positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+, LR−) were assessed. This analysis was also carried out considering multiple tests as serial testing strategy. Results. ROC analysis showed the best diagnostic accuracy for receded near point of convergence (NPC) recovery (area = 0.929) and binocular accommodative facility (BAF) (area = 0.886). Using the cut-offs obtained with ROC analysis, the best diagnostic validity was obtained for the combination of NPC recovery and BAF (S  =  0.77, Sp = 1, LR+ = value tending to infinity, LR− = 0.23) and the combination of NPC break and recovery with BAF (S  =  0.73, Sp = 1, LR+ = tending to infinity, LR− = 0.27). Conclusions. NPC and BAF tests were the tests with the best diagnostic accuracy for subjects with large near exophoria and moderate to severe symptoms.

Is there any evidence for the validity of diagnostic criteria used for accommodative and nonstrabismic binocular dysfunctions?

Purpose: To analyze the diagnostic criteria used in the scientific literature published in the past 25 years for accommodative and nonstrabismic binocular dysfunctions and to explore if the epidemiological analysis of diagnostic validity has been used to propose which clinical criteria should be used for diagnostic purposes. Methods: We carried out a systematic review of papers on accommodative and non-strabic binocular disorders published from 1986 to 2012 analysing the MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO and FRANCIS databases. We admitted original articles about diagnosis of these anomalies in any population. We identified 839 articles and 12 studies were included. The quality of included articles was assessed using the QUADAS-2 tool. Results: The review shows a wide range of clinical signs and cut-off points between authors. Only 3 studies (regarding accommodative anomalies) assessed diagnostic accuracy of clinical signs. Their results suggest using the accommodative amplitude and monocular accommodative facility for diagnosing accommodative insufficiency and a high positive relative accommodation for accommodative excess. The remaining 9 articles did not analyze diagnostic accuracy, assessing a diagnosis with the criteria the authors considered. We also found differences between studies in the way of considering patients’ symptomatology. 3 studies of 12 analyzed, performed a validation of a symptom survey used for convergence insufficiency. Conclusions: Scientific literature reveals differences between authors according to diagnostic criteria for accommodative and nonstrabismic binocular dysfunctions. Diagnostic accuracy studies show that there is only certain evidence for accommodative conditions. For binocular anomalies there is only evidence about a validated questionnaire for convergence insufficiency with no data of diagnostic accuracy.

Serological diagnosis of echinococcosis: the diagnostic potential of native antigens

PURPOSE: Human alveolar (AE) and cystic echinococcosis (CE) caused by the metacestode stages of Echinococcus multilocularis and E. granulosus, respectively, lack pathognomonic clinical signs. Diagnosis therefore relies on the results of imaging and serological studies. The primary goal of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of several easy-to-produce crude or partially purified E. granulosus and E. multilocularis metacestode-derived antigens as tools for the serological diagnosis and differential diagnosis of patients suspicious for AE or CE. METHODS: The sera of 51 treatment-naïve AE and 32 CE patients, 98 Swiss blood donors and 38 patients who were initially suspicious for echinococcosis but suffering from various other liver diseases (e.g., liver neoplasia, etc.) were analysed. RESULTS: According to the results of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA), metacestode-derived antigens of E. granulosus had sensitivities varying from 81 to 97% and >99.9% for the diagnosis of CE and AE, respectively. Antigens derived from E. multilocularis metacestodes had sensitivities ranging from 84 to 91% and >99.9% for the diagnosis of CE and AE, respectively. Specificities ranged from 92 to >99.9%. Post-test probabilities for the differential diagnosis of AE from liver neoplasias, CE from cystic liver lesions, and screening for AE in Switzerland were around 95, 86 and 2.2%, respectively. Cross-reactions with antibodies in sera of patients with other parasitic affections (fasciolosis, schistosomosis, amebosis, cysticercosis, and filarioses) did occur at variable frequencies, but could be eliminated through the use of confirmatory testing. CONCLUSIONS: Different metacestode-derived antigens of E. granulosus and E. multilocularis are valuable, widely accessible, and cost-efficient tools for the serological diagnosis of echinococcosis. However, confirmatory testing is necessary, due to the lack of species specificity and the occurrence of cross-reactions to other helminthic diseases.

Diagnostic motor vehicle inspection demonstration projects, program engineering support. Executive summary. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Diagnostic motor vehicle inspection demonstration projects, program engineering support. Volume 1 - technical report. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Diagnostic motor vehicle inspection demonstration projects, program engineering support. Volume 5 - appendix D: orientation seminars. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Diagnostic motor vehicle inspection demonstration projects, program engineering support. Volume 6 - appendix E: technical basis for cost benefit analyses. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Diagnostic motor vehicle inspection demonstration projects, program engineering support. Volume 7 - appendix F: fuel economy evaluation. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.