Interest Rate Co-movements, Global Factors and the Long End of the Term Spread

The disconnect between rising short and low long interest rates has been a distinctive feature of the 2000s. Both research and policy circles have argued that international forces, such as global monetary policy (e.g. Rogoff, 2006); international business cycles (e.g. Borio and Filardo, 2007); or a global savings glut (e.g Bernanke, 2005) may be responsible. In this paper, we employ recent advances in panel data econometrics to document the disconnect and link it explicitly to the existence of a global latent factor that dominates the long end of the term spread for the recent period; the saving glut story emerges as the most likely contender for the global factor.

Co-movements in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model

We analyze and quantify co-movements in real effective exchange rates while considering the regional location of countries. More specifically, using the dynamic hierarchical factor model (Moench et al. (2011)), we decompose exchange rate movements into several latent components; worldwide and two regional factors as well as country-specific elements. Then, we provide evidence that the worldwide common factor is closely related to monetary policies in large advanced countries while regional common factors tend to be captured by those in the rest of the countries in a region. However, a substantial proportion of the variation in the real exchange rates is reported to be country-specific; even in Europe country-specific movements exceed worldwide and regional common factors.

Primary Commodity Prices: Co-movements, Common Factors and Fundamentals

The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, we document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on the co-movement of commodity prices.

Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets

This paper investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement, which is mainly attributed to shocks to non-fundamentals. Global fundamentals, especially global inflation, affect yields through a ‘policy channel’ and a ‘risk compensation channel’, but the effects through two channels are offset. This evidence explains the unsatisfactory performance of fundamentals-driven term structure models. Our approach delineates asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. The proposed model is robust as identified factors has significant explanatory power of excess returns. The finding that global inflation uncertainty is useful in explaining realized excess returns does not rule out regime changing as a source of non-fundamental fluctuations.

Is intra-operative blood flow predictive for early failure of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula?

BACKGROUND: For over 50 years, radiocephalic wrist arteriovenous fistulae (RCAVF) have been the primary and best vascular access for haemodialysis. Nevertheless, early failure due to thrombosis or non-maturation is a major complication resulting in their abandonment. This prospective study was designed to investigate the predictive value of intra-operative blood flow on early failure of primary RCAVF before the first effective dialysis. METHODS: We enrolled patients undergoing creation of primary RCAVF for haemodialysis based on the pre-operative ultrasound vascular mapping discussed in a multidisciplinary approach. Intra-operative blood flow measurement was systematically performed once the anastomosis had been completed using a transit-time ultrasonic flowmeter. During the follow-up, blood flow was estimated by colour flow ultrasound at various intervals. Any events related to the RCAVF were recorded. RESULTS: Autogenous RCAVFs (n = 58) in 58 patients were constructed and followed up for an average of 30 days. Thrombosis and non-maturation occurred in eight (14%) and four (7%) patients, respectively. The intra-operative blood flow in functioning RCAVFs was significantly higher compared to non-functioning RCAVFs (230 vs 98 mL/min; P = 0.007), as well as 1 week (753 vs 228 mL/min; P = 0.0008) and 4 weeks (915 vs 245 mL/min, P < 0.0001) later. Blood flow volume measurements with a cut-off value of 120 mL/min had a sensitivity of 67%, specificity of 75% and positive predictive value of 91%. CONCLUSIONS: Blood flow <120 mL has a good predictive value for early failure in RCAVF. During the procedure, this cut-off value may be used to select appropriately which RCAVF should be investigated in the operation theatre in order to correct in real time any abnormality.

Post operative epidural haematomas following spinal surgery : P58

Introduction: Compressive epidural haematomas occurring following spine surgery are very rare but can potentially lead to irreversible damage. The evacuation of the haematoma as an emergency procedure remains the only effective treatment providing though alerting signs are detected on time. Few studies exist on this subject probably due to its rarity. The etiological factors as well as the place of imaging studies prior to urgent haematoma evacuation remain controversial. Two cases of delayed post-operative compressive epidural haematomas following lumbar-spine surgery were detected in our unit between April 2003 and January 2009. In both cases new onset of pain, aggravation of existing neurological deficit or development of new deficit along with worsening of pre-existing walking difficulties were noted. Emergency computer tomography (CT) could not exclude compression in both cases due to important artefacts. Emergency surgery was performed confirming the presence of haematoma in both cases and leading to a complete neurological recovery following its evacuation. As only risk factors common to both cases we identified drain removal and resuming of thromboprophylaxis. Conclusion: Obstacles in early detection of post-operative compressive epidural haematomas occurring following spine surgery are patients presenting with multiple complaints as well as shift work pattern of staff who might not always be trained in detecting early changes in neurological status. We therefore established a checklist for post-operative neurological observations to be carried out on spine surgery patients during the postoperative period. We describe our adopted attitude considering the etiological factors observed in our unit. Further studies including in a multi centre setting would be necessary in order to ascertain our observations.

A modified assay for measuring thymocyte co-stimulatory activity

The observation that murine thymocytes increase their proliferation to interleukin 1 (IL-1) in the presence of phytohemagglutinin (PHA) when pre-incubated with interleukin 2 (IL-2) allowed the introduction of a modified assay for the measurement of IL-1 or the search of thymocyte-inducing proliferative activities in biological samples. Pre-incubation of thymocytes for 24 hr with 50 u/ml IL-2, followed by washings, elicited their maximal response to IL-1 in the usual lymphocyte activating factor (LAF) assay. This suggests that sequential events lead to thymocyte activation. The responsiveness is three to five fold greater than, and the total time of assay is the same as that of the LAF assay. Interestingly, pre-incubation with IL-2 renders thymocytes more sensitive than responsive to crude monocyte conditioned media. The use of the MTT colorimetric method for the assessment of thymocyte proliferation, and of the lectin jacalin as a co-mitogen are suggested as alternatives to be used in co-stimulatory assays.

High number of CD56(bright) NK-cells and persistently low CD4+ T-cells in a hemophiliac HIV/HCV co-infected patient without opportunistic infections.

BACKGROUND: Both the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV), either alone or as coinfections, persist in their hosts by destroying and/or escaping immune defenses, with high morbidity as consequence. In some cases, however, a balance between infection and immunity is reached, leading to prolonged asymptomatic periods. We report a case of such an indolent co-infection, which could be explained by the development of a peculiar subset of Natural Killer (NK) cells. RESULTS: Persistently high peripheral levels of CD56+ NK cells were observed in a peculiar hemophiliac HIV/HCV co-infected patient with low CD4 counts, almost undetectable HIV viral load and no opportunistic infections. Thorough analysis of NK-subsets allowed to identify a marked increase in the CD56bright/dim cell ratio and low numbers of CD16+/CD56- cells. These cells have high levels of natural cytotoxicity receptors but low NCR2 and CD69, and lack both CD57 and CD25 expression. The degranulation potential of NK-cells which correlates with target cytolysis was atypically mainly performed by CD56bright NK-cells, whereas no production of interferon γ (IFN-γ) was observed following NK activation by K562 cells. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that the expansion and lytic capacity of the CD56bright NK subset may be involved in the protection of this « rare » HIV/HCV co-infected hemophiliac A patient from opportunistic infections and virus-related cancers despite very low CD4+ cell counts.

Immunological system and Schistosoma mansoni: co-evolutionary immunobiology. What is the eosinophil role in parasite-host relationship?

Schistosomes, ancestors and recent species, have pervaded many hosts and several phylogenetic levels of immunity, causing an evolutionary pressure to eosinophil lineage expression and response. Schistosoma mansoni adult worms have capitalized on the apparent adversity of living within the mesenteric veins, using the dispersion of eggs and antigens to other tissues besides intestines to set a systemic activation of several haematopoietic lineages, specially eosinophils and monocytes/macrophages. This activation occurs in bone marrow, spleen, liver, lymph nodes, omental and mesenteric milky spots (activation of the old or primordial and recent or new lymphomyeloid tissue), increasing and making easy the migration of eosinophils, monocytes and other cells to the intestinal periovular granulomas. The exudative perigranulomatous stage of the periovular reaction, which present hystolitic characteristics, is then exploited by the parasites, to release the eggs into the intestinal lumen. The authors hypothesize here that eosinophils, which have a long phylogenic story, could participate in the parasite - host co-evolution, specially with S. mansoni, operating together with monocytes/ macrophages, upon parasite transmission.

Chagas' Disease and HIV Co-infection: Genotypic Characterization of the Trypanosoma cruzi Strain

In the past few years, new aspects of the immunopathology of Chagas' disease have been described in immunosuppressed patients, such as fatal central nervous system lesions related to the reactivation of the parasite. This article is the first description of the genotypic characterization, at the strain level, of Trypanosoma cruzi isolated from a patient with Chagas` disease/AIDS co-infection. The presence of four hypodense lesions was observed in the cranial compute tomographic scan. The diagnosis of AIDS was assessed by the detection of anti-HIV antibodies using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and Western blot techniques. The CD4+ lymphocyte counts were maintained under 200 cells/mm3 during one year demonstrating the severity of the state of immunosuppression. Chagas' disease was confirmed by serological and parasitological methods. Trypomastigote forms were visualized in a thick blood smear. The parasite isolated is genotypically similar to the CL strain. The paper reinforces that cerebral Chagas' disease can be considered as another potential opportunistic infection in AIDS resulting from the reactivation of a dormant T. cruzi infection acquired years earlier.