Hotel Profit Implications from Rising Wages and Inflation in the U.S.

Macroeconomic models based on the Phillips Curve predict that as the unemployment rate declines toward the long-run, natural rate, the pace of wage and price growth accelerates and inflation rises.1 In this paper I analyze the profitability prospects for the U.S. hotel industry in today’s relatively volatile economic environment, keeping in mind the Phillips Curve’s general principle that inflation and employment have an inverse, but relatively stable short-term relationship. Although employment and economic growth in the U.S. have been uneven in recent months, the unemployment rate has declined to less than 5 percent, which many economists believe is close to the natural rate. Growth in wages and salaries, as measured by the Employment Cost Index, has concurrently been moving upward between 2.5 and 3.0 percent during the past 12 months. At the same time, general inflation remains below levels that might typically be expected this late in the cycle, although core inflation is bumping up against the Federal Reserve’s 2-percent target. If the inflation rate continues to move upward as predicted by Phillips Curve models (and encouraged by the Federal Reserve), rising labor costs and other expenses will exert downward pressure on U.S. business profits. Backward movement up the Phillips Curve (with greater inflation) coincides with an expanding economy. In that scenario, prices of goods and services also will rise in real terms if their supply cannot keep up with demand, and producers have the ability to raise prices (absent fixed-price contracts such as leases).

Hotel Sustainability Benchmarking Index 2016: Energy, Water, and Carbon

Several studies have been undertaken or attempted by industry and academe to address the need for lodging industry carbon benchmarking. However, these studies have focused on normalizing resource use with the goal of rating or comparing all properties based on multivariate regression according to an industry-wide set of variables, with the result that data sets for analysis were limited. This approach is backward, because practical hotel industry benchmarking must first be undertaken within a specific location and segment.1 Therefore, the CHSB study’s goal is to build a representative database providing raw benchmarks as a base for industry comparisons.2 These results are presented in the CHSB2016 Index, through which a user can obtain the range of benchmarks for energy consumption, water consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions for hotels within specific segments and geographic locations.

Resistive Embedded Heating for Homogeneous Curing of Composite Damage Repair

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Adaptation of the MacNew quality of life questionnaire after myocardial infarction in an Iranian population

BACKGROUND: Health-related quality of life (HRQL) assessment is an important measure of the impact of a wide range of disease process on an individual. To date, no HRQL tool has been evaluated in an Iranian population with cardiovascular disorders, specifically myocardial infarction, a major cause of mortality and morbidity. The MacNew Heart Disease Health-related Quality of Life instrument is a disease-specific HRQL questionnaire with satisfactory validity and reliability when applied cross-culturally. METHOD: A Persian version of MacNew was prepared by both forward and backward translation by bilinguals after which a feasibility test was performed. Consecutive patients (n = 51) admitted to a coronary care unit with acute myocardial infarction were recruited for measurement of their HRQL with retest one month after discharge in the follow-up clinic. Principal components analysis, intra-class correlation reliability, internal consistency, and test-retest reliability were assessed. RESULTS: Trivial rates of missing data confirmed the acceptability of the tool. Principal component analysis revealed that the three domains, emotional, social and physical, performed as well as in the original studies. Internal consistency was high and comparable to other studies, ranging from 0.92 for the emotional and physical domains, to 0.94 for the social domain, and to 0.95 for the Global score. Domain means of 5, 5.3 and 4.9 for emotional, physical and social respectively indicate that our Iranian population has similar emotional and physical but worse social HRQL scores. Test-retest analysis showed significant correlation in emotional and physical domains (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The Persian version of the MacNew questionnaire is comparable to the English version. It has high internal consistency and reasonable reproducibility, making it an appropriate specific quality of life tool for population-based studies and clinical practice in Iran in patients who have survived an acute myocardial infraction. Further studies are needed to confirm its validity in larger populations with cardiovascular disease

Exergetic, energetic, economic and environmental evaluation of concentrated solar power plants in Libya

The PhD project addresses the potential of using concentrating solar power (CSP) plants as a viable alternative energy producing system in Libya. Exergetic, energetic, economic and environmental analyses are carried out for a particular type of CSP plants. The study, although it aims a particular type of CSP plant – 50 MW parabolic trough-CSP plant, it is sufficiently general to be applied to other configurations. The novelty of the study, in addition to modeling and analyzing the selected configuration, lies in the use of a state-of-the-art exergetic analysis combined with the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The modeling and simulation of the plant is carried out in chapter three and they are conducted into two parts, namely: power cycle and solar field. The computer model developed for the analysis of the plant is based on algebraic equations describing the power cycle and the solar field. The model was solved using the Engineering Equation Solver (EES) software; and is designed to define the properties at each state point of the plant and then, sequentially, to determine energy, efficiency and irreversibility for each component. The developed model has the potential of using in the preliminary design of CSPs and, in particular, for the configuration of the solar field based on existing commercial plants. Moreover, it has the ability of analyzing the energetic, economic and environmental feasibility of using CSPs in different regions of the world, which is illustrated for the Libyan region in this study. The overall feasibility scenario is completed through an hourly analysis on an annual basis in chapter Four. This analysis allows the comparison of different systems and, eventually, a particular selection, and it includes both the economic and energetic components using the “greenius” software. The analysis also examined the impact of project financing and incentives on the cost of energy. The main technological finding of this analysis is higher performance and lower levelized cost of electricity (LCE) for Libya as compared to Southern Europe (Spain). Therefore, Libya has the potential of becoming attractive for the establishment of CSPs in its territory and, in this way, to facilitate the target of several European initiatives that aim to import electricity generated by renewable sources from North African and Middle East countries. The analysis is presented a brief review of the current cost of energy and the potential of reducing the cost from parabolic trough- CSP plant. Exergetic and environmental life cycle assessment analyses are conducted for the selected plant in chapter Five; the objectives are 1) to assess the environmental impact and cost, in terms of exergy of the life cycle of the plant; 2) to find out the points of weakness in terms of irreversibility of the process; and 3) to verify whether solar power plants can reduce environmental impact and the cost of electricity generation by comparing them with fossil fuel plants, in particular, Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) plant and oil thermal power plant. The analysis also targets a thermoeconomic analysis using the specific exergy costing (SPECO) method to evaluate the level of the cost caused by exergy destruction. The main technological findings are that the most important contribution impact lies with the solar field, which reports a value of 79%; and the materials with the vi highest impact are: steel (47%), molten salt (25%) and synthetic oil (21%). The “Human Health” damage category presents the highest impact (69%) followed by the “Resource” damage category (24%). In addition, the highest exergy demand is linked to the steel (47%); and there is a considerable exergetic demand related to the molten salt and synthetic oil with values of 25% and 19%, respectively. Finally, in the comparison with fossil fuel power plants (NGCC and Oil), the CSP plant presents the lowest environmental impact, while the worst environmental performance is reported to the oil power plant followed by NGCC plant. The solar field presents the largest value of cost rate, where the boiler is a component with the highest cost rate among the power cycle components. The thermal storage allows the CSP plants to overcome solar irradiation transients, to respond to electricity demand independent of weather conditions, and to extend electricity production beyond the availability of daylight. Numerical analysis of the thermal transient response of a thermocline storage tank is carried out for the charging phase. The system of equations describing the numerical model is solved by using time-implicit and space-backward finite differences and which encoded within the Matlab environment. The analysis presented the following findings: the predictions agree well with the experiments for the time evolution of the thermocline region, particularly for the regions away from the top-inlet. The deviations observed in the near-region of the inlet are most likely due to the high-level of turbulence in this region due to the localized level of mixing resulting; a simple analytical model to take into consideration this increased turbulence level was developed and it leads to some improvement of the predictions; this approach requires practically no additional computational effort and it relates the effective thermal diffusivity to the mean effective velocity of the fluid at each particular height of the system. Altogether the study indicates that the selected parabolic trough-CSP plant has the edge over alternative competing technologies for locations where DNI is high and where land usage is not an issue, such as the shoreline of Libya.

Three dimensional study to quantify the relationship between facial hard and soft tissue movement as a result of orthognathic surgery

Introduction Prediction of soft tissue changes following orthognathic surgery has been frequently attempted in the past decades. It has gradually progressed from the classic “cut and paste” of photographs to the computer assisted 2D surgical prediction planning; and finally, comprehensive 3D surgical planning was introduced to help surgeons and patients to decide on the magnitude and direction of surgical movements as well as the type of surgery to be considered for the correction of facial dysmorphology. A wealth of experience was gained and numerous published literature is available which has augmented the knowledge of facial soft tissue behaviour and helped to improve the ability to closely simulate facial changes following orthognathic surgery. This was particularly noticed following the introduction of the three dimensional imaging into the medical research and clinical applications. Several approaches have been considered to mathematically predict soft tissue changes in three dimensions, following orthognathic surgery. The most common are the Finite element model and Mass tensor Model. These were developed into software packages which are currently used in clinical practice. In general, these methods produce an acceptable level of prediction accuracy of soft tissue changes following orthognathic surgery. Studies, however, have shown a limited prediction accuracy at specific regions of the face, in particular the areas around the lips. Aims The aim of this project is to conduct a comprehensive assessment of hard and soft tissue changes following orthognathic surgery and introduce a new method for prediction of facial soft tissue changes.   Methodology The study was carried out on the pre- and post-operative CBCT images of 100 patients who received their orthognathic surgery treatment at Glasgow dental hospital and school, Glasgow, UK. Three groups of patients were included in the analysis; patients who underwent Le Fort I maxillary advancement surgery; bilateral sagittal split mandibular advancement surgery or bimaxillary advancement surgery. A generic facial mesh was used to standardise the information obtained from individual patient’s facial image and Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to interpolate the correlations between the skeletal surgical displacement and the resultant soft tissue changes. The identified relationship between hard tissue and soft tissue was then applied on a new set of preoperative 3D facial images and the predicted results were compared to the actual surgical changes measured from their post-operative 3D facial images. A set of validation studies was conducted. To include: • Comparison between voxel based registration and surface registration to analyse changes following orthognathic surgery. The results showed there was no statistically significant difference between the two methods. Voxel based registration, however, showed more reliability as it preserved the link between the soft tissue and skeletal structures of the face during the image registration process. Accordingly, voxel based registration was the method of choice for superimposition of the pre- and post-operative images. The result of this study was published in a refereed journal. • Direct DICOM slice landmarking; a novel technique to quantify the direction and magnitude of skeletal surgical movements. This method represents a new approach to quantify maxillary and mandibular surgical displacement in three dimensions. The technique includes measuring the distance of corresponding landmarks digitized directly on DICOM image slices in relation to three dimensional reference planes. The accuracy of the measurements was assessed against a set of “gold standard” measurements extracted from simulated model surgery. The results confirmed the accuracy of the method within 0.34mm. Therefore, the method was applied in this study. The results of this validation were published in a peer refereed journal. • The use of a generic mesh to assess soft tissue changes using stereophotogrammetry. The generic facial mesh played a major role in the soft tissue dense correspondence analysis. The conformed generic mesh represented the geometrical information of the individual’s facial mesh on which it was conformed (elastically deformed). Therefore, the accuracy of generic mesh conformation is essential to guarantee an accurate replica of the individual facial characteristics. The results showed an acceptable overall mean error of the conformation of generic mesh 1 mm. The results of this study were accepted for publication in peer refereed scientific journal. Skeletal tissue analysis was performed using the validated “Direct DICOM slices landmarking method” while soft tissue analysis was performed using Dense correspondence analysis. The analysis of soft tissue was novel and produced a comprehensive description of facial changes in response to orthognathic surgery. The results were accepted for publication in a refereed scientific Journal. The main soft tissue changes associated with Le Fort I were advancement at the midface region combined with widening of the paranasal, upper lip and nostrils. Minor changes were noticed at the tip of the nose and oral commissures. The main soft tissue changes associated with mandibular advancement surgery were advancement and downward displacement of the chin and lower lip regions, limited widening of the lower lip and slight reversion of the lower lip vermilion combined with minimal backward displacement of the upper lip were recorded. Minimal changes were observed on the oral commissures. The main soft tissue changes associated with bimaxillary advancement surgery were generalized advancement of the middle and lower thirds of the face combined with widening of the paranasal, upper lip and nostrils regions. In Le Fort I cases, the correlation between the changes of the facial soft tissue and the skeletal surgical movements was assessed using PCA. A statistical method known as ’Leave one out cross validation’ was applied on the 30 cases which had Le Fort I osteotomy surgical procedure to effectively utilize the data for the prediction algorithm. The prediction accuracy of soft tissue changes showed a mean error ranging between (0.0006mm±0.582) at the nose region to (-0.0316mm±2.1996) at the various facial regions.

Integrated micro fuel cells with on-board hydride reactors and autonomous control schemes

Miniaturization of power generators to the MEMS scale, based on the hydrogen-air fuel cell, is the object of this research. The micro fuel cell approach has been adopted for advantages of both high power and energy densities. On-board hydrogen production/storage and an efficient control scheme that facilitates integration with a fuel cell membrane electrode assembly (MEA) are key elements for micro energy conversion. Millimeter-scale reactors (ca. 10 µL) have been developed, for hydrogen production through hydrolysis of CaH2 and LiAlH4, to yield volumetric energy densities of the order of 200 Whr/L. Passive microfluidic control schemes have been implemented in order to facilitate delivery, self-regulation, and at the same time eliminate bulky auxiliaries that run on parasitic power. One technique uses surface tension to pump water in a microchannel for hydrolysis and is self-regulated, based on load, by back pressure from accumulated hydrogen acting on a gas-liquid microvalve. This control scheme improves uniformity of power delivery during long periods of lower power demand, with fast switching to mass transport regime on the order of seconds, thus providing peak power density of up to 391.85 W/L. Another method takes advantage of water recovery by backward transport through the MEA, of water vapor that is generated at the cathode half-cell reaction. This regulation-free scheme increases available reactor volume to yield energy density of 313 Whr/L, and provides peak power density of 104 W/L. Prototype devices have been tested for a range of duty periods from 2-24 hours, with multiple switching of power demand in order to establish operation across multiple regimes. Issues identified as critical to the realization of the integrated power MEMS include effects of water transport and byproduct hydrate swelling on hydrogen production in the micro reactor, and ambient relative humidity on fuel cell performance.

Caracterização do ciclo da marcha em amputado transtibial com prótese inteligente

This work presents an application of optical fiber sensors based on Bragg gratings integrated to a transtibial prosthesis tube manufactured with a polymeric composite systrem of epoxy resin reinforced with glass fiber. The main objective of this study is to characterize the sensors applied to the gait cycle and changes in the gravity center of a transtibial amputee, trough the analysis of deformation and strengh of the transtibial prosthesis tube. For this investigation it is produced a tube of the composite material described above using the molding method of resin transfer (RTM) with four optical sensors. The prosthesis in which the original tube is replaced is classified as endoskeletal, has vacuum fitting, aluminium conector tube and carbon fiber foot cushioning. The volunteer for the tests was a man of 41 years old, 1.65 meters tall, 72 kilograms and left-handed. His amputation occurred due to trauma (surgical section is in the medial level, and was made below the left lower limb knee). He has been a transtibial prosthesis user for two years and eight months. The characterization of the optical sensors and analysis of mechanical deformation and tube resistance occurred through the gait cycle and the variation of the center of gravity of the body by the following tests: stand up, support leg without the prosthesis, support in the leg with the prosthesis, walk forward and walk backward. Besides the characterization of optical sensors during the gait cycle and the variation of the gravity center in a transtibial amputated, the results also showed a high degree of integration of the sensors in the composite and a high mechanical strength of the material.

Bidirectional cargo transport by microtubule-based molecular motors

We have reconstituted a simple in vitro system using only mammalian dynein and mammalian kinesin attached to a single cargo. These cargoes undergo saltatory motion typically seen in vivo, indicating that the motors engage in a tug-of-war. When the complex hits a barrier, the cargo often reverses direction. In some cases, it tries several up-and-back motions, during which time the dynein likely pulls the cargo onto a different protofilament, and is sometimes able to bypass the blockage. This explains why eliminating kinesin or dynein stops motion in both directions in vivo. We also find that mammalian dynein, but not kinesin, often takes backwards steps when under backward force. However, yeast dynein coupled with mammalian kinesin does not display these attributes, as expected.

Application of an online-biomass sensor in an optical multisensory platform prototype for growth monitoring of biotechnical relevant microorganism and cell lines in single-use shake flasks

In the context of this work we evaluated a multisensory, noninvasive prototype platform for shake flask cultivations by monitoring three basic parameters (pH, pO2 and biomass). The focus lies on the evaluation of the biomass sensor based on backward light scattering. The application spectrum was expanded to four new organisms in addition to E. coli K12 and S. cerevisiae [1]. It could be shown that the sensor is appropriate for a wide range of standard microorganisms, e.g., L. zeae, K. pastoris, A. niger and CHO-K1. The biomass sensor signal could successfully be correlated and calibrated with well-known measurement methods like OD600, cell dry weight (CDW) and cell concentration. Logarithmic and Bleasdale-Nelder derived functions were adequate for data fitting. Measurements at low cell concentrations proved to be critical in terms of a high signal to noise ratio, but the integration of a custom made light shade in the shake flask improved these measurements significantly. This sensor based measurement method has a high potential to initiate a new generation of online bioprocess monitoring. Metabolic studies will particularly benefit from the multisensory data acquisition. The sensor is already used in labscale experiments for shake flask cultivations.

Lower limb and associated injuries in frontal-impact road traffic collisions.

Objectives: To study the relationship between severity of injury of the lower limb and severity of injury of the head, thoracic, and abdominal regions in frontal-impact road traffic collisions. Methods: Consecutive hospitalised trauma patients who were involved in a frontal road traffic collision were prospectively studied over 18 months. Patients with at least one Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) ≥3 or AIS 2 injuries within two AIS body regions were included. Patients were divided into two groups depending on the severity of injury to the head, chest or abdomen. Low severity group had an AIS < 2 and high severity group had an AIS ≥ 2. Backward likelihood logistic regression models were used to define significant factors affecting the severity of head, chest or abdominal injuries. Results: Eighty-five patients were studied. The backward likelihood logistic regression model defining independent factors affecting severity of head injuries was highly significant (p=0.01, nagelkerke r square = 0.1) severity of lower limb injuries was the only significant factor (p=0.013) having a negative correlation with head injury (Odds ratio of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.45-0.91). Conclusion: Occupants who sustain a greater severity of injury to the lower limb in a frontal-impact collision are likely to be spared from a greater severity of head injury.

Electracy in Praxis: Pedagogical Relays for an Undergraduate Writing Curriculum

The paradigm shift from traditional print literacy to the postmodern fragmentation, nonlinearity, and multimodality of writing for the Internet is realized in Gregory L. Ulmer’s electracy theory. Ulmer’s open invitation to continually invent the theory has resulted in the proliferation of relays, or weak models, by electracy advocates for understanding and applying the theory. Most relays, however, remain theoretical rather than practical for the writing classroom, and electracy instruction remains rare, potentially hindering the theory’s development. In this dissertation, I address the gap in electracy praxis by adapting, developing, and remixing relays for a functional electracy curriculum with first-year writing students in the Virginia Community College System as the target audience. I review existing electracy relays, pedagogical applications, and assessment practices – Ulmer’s and those of electracy advocates – before introducing my own relays, which take the form of modules. My proposed relay modules are designed for adaptability with the goals of introducing digital natives to the logic of new media and guiding instructors to possible implementations of electracy. Each module contains a justification, core competencies and learning outcomes, optional readings, an assignment with supplemental exercises, and assessment criteria. My Playlist, Transduction, and (Sim)ulation relays follow sound backward curricular design principles and emphasize core hallmarks of electracy as juxtaposed alongside literacy. This dissertation encourages the instruction of new media in Ulmer’s postmodern apparatus in which student invention via the articulation of fragments from various semiotic modes stems from and results in new methodologies for and understandings of digital communication.

Algorithmique et complexité des systèmes à compteurs

Réalisé en cotutelle avec l'École normale supérieure de Cachan – Université Paris-Saclay

Maladaptive defense mechanisms are associated with decoupling of testosterone from sexual desire in women of reproductive age

O presente artigo contém uma errata, disponível em: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15294145.2015.1108503

Effects of Drive Speed Modulation on Dynamics of Slender Rotating Structures

Slender rotating structures are used in many mechanical systems. These structures can suffer from undesired vibrations that can affect the components and safety of a system. Furthermore, since some these structures can operate in a harsh environment, installation and operation of sensors that are needed for closed-loop and collocated control schemes may not be feasible. Hence, the need for an open-loop non-collocated scheme for control of the dynamics of these structures. In this work, the effects of drive speed modulation on the dynamics of slender rotating structures are studied. Slender rotating structures are a type of mechanical rotating structures, whose length to diameter ratio is large. For these structures, the torsion mode natural frequencies can be low. In particular, for isotropic structures, the first few torsion mode frequencies can be of the same order as the first few bending mode frequencies. These situations can be conducive for energy transfer amongst bending and torsion modes. Scenarios with torsional vibrations experienced by rotating structures with continuous rotor-stator contact occur in many rotating mechanical systems. Drill strings used in the oil and gas industry are an example of rotating structures whose torsional vibrations can be deleterious to the components of the drilling system. As a novel approach to mitigate undesired vibrations, the effects of adding a sinusoidal excitation to the rotation speed of a drill string are studied. A portion of the drill string located within a borewell is considered and this rotating structure has been modeled as an extended Jeffcott rotor and a sinusoidal excitation has been added to the drive speed of the rotor. After constructing a three-degree-of-freedom model to capture lateral and torsional motions, the equations of motions are reduced to a single differential equation governing torsional vibrations during continuous stator contact. An approximate solution has been obtained by making use of the Method of Direct Partition of Motions with the governing torsional equation of motion. The results showed that for a rotor undergoing forward or backward whirling, the addition of sinusoidal excitation to the drive speed can cause an increase in the equivalent torsional stiffness, smooth the discontinuous friction force at contact, and reduce the regions of negative slope in the friction coefficient variation with respect to speed. Experiments with a scaled drill string apparatus have also been conducted and the experimental results show good agreement with the numerical results obtained from the developed models. These findings suggest that the extended Jeffcott rotordynamics model can be useful for studies of rotor dynamics in situations with continuous rotor-stator contact. Furthermore, the results obtained suggest that the drive speed modulation scheme can have value for attenuating drill-string vibrations.