Will greenhouse gas-induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes?

The use of a high resolution atmospheric model at T106 resolution, for studying the influence of greenhouse warming on tropical storm climatology, is investigated. The same method for identifying the storms has been used as in a previous study by Bengtsson et al. The sea surface temperature anomalies have been taken from a previous transient climate change experiment, obtained with a low resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled model. The global distribution of the storms, at the time when the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere had doubled, agrees in geographical position and seasonal variability with that of the present climate, but the number of storms is significantly reduced, particularly at the Southern Hemisphere. The main reason to this, appear to be connected to changes in the large scale circulation, such as a weaker Hadley circulation and stronger upper air westerlies. The low level vorticity in the hurricane genesis regions is generally reduced compared to the present climate, while the vertical tropospheric wind shear is somewhat increased. Most tropical storm regions indicate reduced surface windspeeds and a slightly weaker hydrological cycle.

Focusing the kaleidoscope: investigating the newly formed role of 'Academic Lead’ at a research-led University

Now, more than ever, higher education institutions are reflecting on the need for flexible leadership models to help adapt to the fast changing academic environment. Rapid shifts in the sector are contributing to a kaleidoscopic ‘supercomplexity’ of challenges, structures, processes and value frameworks for academics who lead and for those who are led. How are institutions’ leadership structures and roles developing in response to these changes? And how do these responses affect academic staff in relation to their identity, status and career trajectory? This paper reports on a Leadership Foundation funded research project exploring the ways in which one UK institution has implemented a new ‘distributed’ leadership model. Crucially, the project examines the impact of the model on both those who are leaders and those being led.

A 27 day persistence model of near-Earth solar wind conditions: a long lead-time forecast and a benchmark for dynamical models

Geomagnetic activity has long been known to exhibit approximately 27 day periodicity, resulting from solar wind structures repeating each solar rotation. Thus a very simple near-Earth solar wind forecast is 27 day persistence, wherein the near-Earth solar wind conditions today are assumed to be identical to those 27 days previously. Effective use of such a persistence model as a forecast tool, however, requires the performance and uncertainty to be fully characterized. The first half of this study determines which solar wind parameters can be reliably forecast by persistence and how the forecast skill varies with the solar cycle. The second half of the study shows how persistence can provide a useful benchmark for more sophisticated forecast schemes, namely physics-based numerical models. Point-by-point assessment methods, such as correlation and mean-square error, find persistence skill comparable to numerical models during solar minimum, despite the 27 day lead time of persistence forecasts, versus 2–5 days for numerical schemes. At solar maximum, however, the dynamic nature of the corona means 27 day persistence is no longer a good approximation and skill scores suggest persistence is out-performed by numerical models for almost all solar wind parameters. But point-by-point assessment techniques are not always a reliable indicator of usefulness as a forecast tool. An event-based assessment method, which focusses key solar wind structures, finds persistence to be the most valuable forecast throughout the solar cycle. This reiterates the fact that the means of assessing the “best” forecast model must be specifically tailored to its intended use.

Opinion dynamics of learning agents: does seeking consensus lead to disagreement?

We study opinion dynamics in a population of interacting adaptive agents voting on a set of issues represented by vectors. We consider agents who can classify issues into one of two categories and can arrive at their opinions using an adaptive algorithm. Adaptation comes from learning and the information for the learning process comes from interacting with other neighboring agents and trying to change the internal state in order to concur with their opinions. The change in the internal state is driven by the information contained in the issue and in the opinion of the other agent. We present results in a simple yet rich context where each agent uses a Boolean perceptron to state their opinion. If the update occurs with information asynchronously exchanged among pairs of agents, then the typical case, if the number of issues is kept small, is the evolution into a society torn by the emergence of factions with extreme opposite beliefs. This occurs even when seeking consensus with agents with opposite opinions. If the number of issues is large, the dynamics becomes trapped, the society does not evolve into factions and a distribution of moderate opinions is observed. The synchronous case is technically simpler and is studied by formulating the problem in terms of differential equations that describe the evolution of order parameters that measure the consensus between pairs of agents. We show that for a large number of issues and unidirectional information flow, global consensus is a fixed point; however, the approach to this consensus is glassy for large societies.

Evidence of fluoride oxidation for development of the electrochemically-induced crystallization observed in lead oxyfluoroborate glasses

This work reports on a distinct experimental procedure conceived to closely approach the question of development of crystallization in lead oxyfluoroborate glasses in the presence of an electric field. After proposing earlier that this phenomenon should involve occurrence of redox-type electrochemical reactions occurring at the electrodes. it was in fact recently shown that a direct contact of the glasses with both the cathode and anode revealed essential, provided that crystallization did not develop when ions migration to these electrodes became frustrated. The present study demonstrates that. even in Pt,Ag/Glass/YSZ:PbF(2)/Ag,Pt-type electrochemical cells subjected to electric field action, where YSZ:PbF(2) represents composite-like mixtures (formed by Y(2)O(3)-doped ZrO(2) and PbF(2)) placed between the glass and anode. crystallization was observable in given cases. In summary, supported by (micro)structural and electrical characterizations, clear evidence is provided here that, besides Pb(2+) reduction at the cathode, crystallization really involves simultaneous F(-) oxidation at the anode, completing thus the whole redox electrochemical reaction so far postulated. In these cases, F(-) migration to the anode was achievable following PbF(2) percolative-like paths through the YSZ:PbF(2) mixtures. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Third-order nonlinearity of Er(3+)-doped lead phosphate glass

The third-order optical susceptibility and dispersion of the linear refractive index of Er(3+)-doped lead phosphate glass were measured in the wavelength range between 400 and 1940 nm by using the spectrally resolved femtosecond Maker fringes technique. The nonlinear refractive index obtained from the third-order susceptibility was found to be five times higher than that of silica, indicating that Er(3+)-doped lead phosphate glass is a potential candidate to be used as the base component for the fabrication of photonic devices. For comparison purposes, the Z-scan technique was also employed to obtain the values of the nonlinear refractive index of Er(3+)-doped lead phosphate glass at several wavelengths, and the values obtained using the two techniques agree to within 15%.

Preparation and structural characterization of rare-earth doped lead lanthanum zirconate titanate ceramics

A new preparation route towards rare-earth (RE) doped polycrystalline lead lanthanum zirconate titanate (PLZT) ceramics (RE = Y(3+), Nd(3+), Yb(3+)), based on the use of doped lanthanum oxide or zirconia, is reported. Structural characterization by X-ray powder diffraction reveals that secondary phase formation can be substantially diminished in comparison to conventional preparation methods. The distribution of the rare-earth dopants was investigated as a function of concentration by static (207)Pb spin echo NMR spectra, using Fourier Transformation of Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill spin echo trains. For the Nd- and Yb-doped materials, the interaction of the (207)Pb nuclei with the unpaired electron spin density results in significant broadening and shifting of the NMR signal, whereas these effects are absent in the diamagnetic Y(3+) doped materials. Based on different concentration dependences of the NMR lineshape parameters, we conclude that the structural role of the Nd(3+) dopants differs significantly from that of Yb(3+). While the Nd(3+) ions appear to be statistically distributed in the PLZT lattice, incorporation of Yb(3+) into PLZT appears to be limited by the appearance of doped cubic zirconia as a secondary phase. (C) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Solid state NMR as a new approach for the structural characterization of rare-earth doped lead lanthanum zirconate titanate laser ceramics

To facilitate the design of laser host materials with optimized emission properties, detailed structural information at the atomic level is essential, regarding the local bonding environment of the active ions (distribution over distinct lattice sites) and their extent of local clustering as well as their population distribution over separate micro- or nanophases. The present study explores the potential of solid state NMR spectroscopy to provide such understanding for rare-earth doped lead lanthanum zirconate titanate (PLZT) ceramics. As the NMR signals of the paramagnetic dopant species cannot be observed directly, two complementary approaches are utilized: (1) direct observation of diamagnetic mimics using Sc-45 NMR and (2) study of the paramagnetic interaction of the constituent host lattice nuclei with the rare-earth dopant, using Pb-207 NMR lineshape analysis. Sc-45 MAS NMR spectra of scandium-doped PLZT samples unambiguously reveal scandium to be six-coordinated, suggesting that this rare-earth ion substitutes in the B site. Static Pb-207 spin echo NMR spectra of a series of Tm-doped PLZT samples reveal a clear influence of paramagnetic rare-earth dopant concentration on the NMR lineshape. In the latter case high-fidelity spectra can be obtained by spin echo mapping under systematic incrementation of the excitation frequency, benefiting from the signal-to-noise enhancement afforded by spin echo train Fourier transforms. Consistent with XRD data, the Pb-207 NMR lineshape analysis suggests that statistical incorporation into the PLZT lattice occurs at dopant levels of up to 1 wt.% Tm3+, while at higher levels the solubility limit is reached. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Lead(II)-induced formation and coordination of 3,4-dihydro-3-thioxo-1,2,4-triazin-5(2H)-one

Cyclization of (n)butyl glyoxylate thiosemicarbazone (HBuTSC) under reflux in the presence of Pb(OAc)(2) led to tile formation of the complex [Pb(HTz)(2)] (H(2)Tz = 3,4-dihydro-3-thioxo-1,2,4-triazin-5(2H)-one), which after recrystallization from DMSO afforded the polymer [Pb(Tz)](n), the first example of a Tz(2-) metal complex. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Insights into the dynamics and sources of atmospheric lead and particulate matter in Sao Paulo, Brazil, from high temporal resolution sampling

We present the first results of a study investigating the processes that control concentrations and sources of Pb and particulate matter in the atmosphere of Sao Paulo City Brazil Aerosols were collected with high temporal resolution (3 hours) during a four-day period in July 2005 The highest Pb concentrations measured coincided with large fireworks during celebration events and associated to high traffic occurrence Our high-resolution data highlights the impact that a singular transient event can have on air quality even in a megacity Under meteorological conditions non-conducive to pollutant dispersion Pb and particulate matter concentrations accumulated during the night leading to the highest concentrations in aerosols collected early in the morning of the following day The stable isotopes of Pb suggest that emissions from traffic remain an Important source of Pb in Sao Paulo City due to the large traffic fleet despite low Pb concentrations in fuels (C) 2010 Elsevier BV All rights reserved

Bendadaite, a new iron arsenate mineral of the arthurite group

Bendadaite, ideally Fe(2+)Fe(2)(3+)(AsO(4))(2)(OH)(2 center dot).4H(2)O, is a new member of the arthurite group It was found as a weathering product of arsenopyrite on a single hand specimen from the phosphate pegmatite Bendada. central Portugal (type locality) Co-type locality is the granite pegmatite of La via do Almerindo (Almerindo mine), Linopolis, Divmo das Laranjeiras county, Minas Gerais, Brazil Further localities are the Vein Negra mine, Copiapo province, Chile, mid-East, Bou Azzer district, Morocco, and Para Inferida yard, Fenugu Sibirt mine, Gonnosfanadiga, Medio Campidano Province, Sardinia. Italy Type bendadaite occurs as blackish green to dark brownish tufts (<0 1 mm long) and flattened radiating aggregates. in intimate association with an intermediate member of the scorodite-mansfieldite series It is monoclinic. space group P2(l/c). with a = 10 239(3) angstrom. b = 9 713(2) angstrom, c = 5 552(2) angstrom. beta = 94 11(2)degrees. = 550 7(2) angstrom(3). Z = 2 Electron-microprobe analysis yielded (wt %). CaO 0 04, MnO 0 03. CuO 006, ZnO 004. Fe(2)O(3) (total) 43 92, Al(2)O(3) 115. SnO(2) 0 10, As(2)O(5) 43 27. P(2)O(5) 1 86, SO(3) 0.03 The empirical formula is (Fe(0 52)(2+)Fe(0 32)(3+)rectangle(0 16))(Sigma 1 00)(Fe(1 89)(3+)Al(0 11))(Sigma 2 00)(As(1 87)P(0 13))(Sigma 2 00)O(8)(OH)(2 00) 4H(2)O based. CM 2(As,P) and assuming ideal 80, 2(OH), 4H2O and complete occupancy of the ferric on site by Fe(3+) and Al Optically, bendadaite is biaxial, positive, 2V(est) = 85+/-4 degrees, 2V(eale) = 88 degrees, with alpha 1 734(3). 13 1 759(3), 7 1 787(4) Pleochrosim is medium strong X pale reddish brown. Y yellowish brown, Z dark yellowish brown. absorption Z > V > X, optical dispersion weak, r > v. Optical axis plane Is parallel to (010), with X approximately parallel to a and Z nearly parallel to c Bendadaite has vitreous to sub-adamantine luster, is translucent and non-fluorescent It is brittle, shows irregular fracture and a good cleavage parallel to 1010} 3 15 0 10 g/cm(3), 3 193 g/cm3 (for the empirical formula) The five strongest powder diffraction lines [d in angstrom (I)(hkl] are 10 22 (10)(100), 7 036 (8)(110), 4 250 (5)(11 I), 2 865 (4)(311), 4 833 (3)(020,011) The d spacings are very similar to those of its Zn analogue, ojelaite The crystal structure of bendadaite was solved and refined using a crystal from the co-type locality with the composition (Fe(0 95)(2+)rectangle(0 05))(Sigma 1 00)(Fe(1 80)(3+)Al(0 20))Sigma(2 00)(As(1 48)P(0 52))(Sigma 2 00)O(8)) (OH)(2) 4H(2)O (R = 16%) and confirms an arthurite-type atomic arrangement

Determination of cadmium and lead in cetacean Dolphinidae tissue from the coast of Bahia state in Brazil by GFAAS

In the present study, cadmium and lead in the muscle, lung, liver and kidney of dolphins (Sotalia guianensis and Stenella clymene) of the Bahia coast in the northwest of Brazil were determined by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. Samples were digested using a diluted oxidant mixture (HNO(3) + H(2)O(2)) with a microwave heating program performed in five steps. The optimized temperatures and chemical modifier for the pyrolysis and atomization were 700 degrees C, 1400 degrees C and Pd plus Mg for Cd, and 900 degrees C, 1800 degrees C and NH(4)H(2)PO(4) for Pb, respectively. Characteristic masses and limits of detections (n = 20, 3 sigma) for Cd and Pb were 1.6 and 9.0 pg and 0.82 ng g(-1) and 0.50 ng g(-1), respectively. Repeatability ranged from 0.87 to 8.22% for Cd and 4.31 to 8.09% for Pb. The found concentrations presented no statistical differences at the 95% confidence level when compared with the ICP OES methods. Addition and recovery tests were also performed and the results ranged between 87 and 112% for both elements. Samples of cetacean Dolphinidae (S. guianensis and S. clymene) were analyzed, and the higher concentrations ranged from 0.09 to 46.2 mu g g(-1) for Cd and 0.04 to 0.47 mu g g(-1) for Pb in liver, and from 0.133 to 277 mu g g(-1) for Cd in the kidney. (C) 2010 Elsevier By. All rights reserved.

Microbiopsies of Surface Dental Enamel as a Tool to Measure Body Lead Burden

Lead (Pb) poisoning is preventable but continues to be a public health problem in several countries. Measuring Pb in the surface dental enamel (SDE) using microbiopsies is a rapid, safe, and painless procedure. There are different protocols to perform these microbiopsies, but the reliability of dental enamel lead levels (DELL) determination is dependent upon biopsy depth (BD). It is established that DELL decrease from the outermost superficial layer to the inner layer of dental enamel. The aim of this study was to determine DELL obtained by two different microbiopsy techniques on SDE termed protocol I and protocol II. Two consecutive enamel layers were removed from the same subject group (n = 138) for both protocols. Protocol I consisted of a biopsied site with a diameter of 4 mm after the application of 10 l HCl for 35 s. Protocol II involved a biopsied site of 1.6 mm diameter after application of 5 l HCl for 20 s. The results demonstrated that there were no significant differences for BD and DELL between homologous teeth using protocol I. However, there was a significant difference between DELL in the first and second layers using both protocols. Further, the BD in protocol II overestimated DELL values. In conclusion, SDE analyzed by microbiopsy is a reliable biomarker in protocol I, but the chemical method to calculate BD in protocol II appeared to be inadequate for measurement of DELL. Thus, DELL could not be compared among studies that used different methodologies for SDE microbiopsies.