The decline of malaria in Finland – the impact of the vector and social variables

Background: Malaria was prevalent in Finland in the 18th century. It declined slowly without deliberate counter-measures and the last indigenous case was reported in 1954. In the present analysis of indigenous malaria in Finland, an effort was made to construct a data set on annual malaria cases of maximum temporal length to be able to evaluate the significance of different factors assumed to affect malaria trends. Methods: To analyse the long-term trend malaria statistics were collected from 1750–2008. During that time, malaria frequency decreased from about 20,000 – 50,000 per 1,000,000 people to less than 1 per 1,000,000 people. To assess the cause of the decline, a correlation analysis was performed between malaria frequency per million people and temperature data, animal husbandry, consolidation of land by redistribution and household size. Results: Anopheles messeae and Anopheles beklemishevi exist only as larvae in June and most of July. The females seek an overwintering place in August. Those that overwinter together with humans may act as vectors. They have to stay in their overwintering place from September to May because of the cold climate. The temperatures between June and July determine the number of malaria cases during the following transmission season. This did not, however, have an impact on the longterm trend of malaria. The change in animal husbandry and reclamation of wetlands may also be excluded as a possible cause for the decline of malaria. The long-term social changes, such as land consolidation and decreasing household size, showed a strong correlation with the decline of Plasmodium. Conclusion: The indigenous malaria in Finland faded out evenly in the whole country during 200 years with limited or no counter-measures or medication. It appears that malaria in Finland was basically a social disease and that malaria trends were strongly linked to changes in human behaviour. Decreasing household size caused fewer interactions between families and accordingly decreasing recolonization possibilities for Plasmodium. The permanent drop of the household size was the precondition for a permanent eradication of malaria.

Support vector machine for evaluating seismic-liquefaction potential using shear wave velocity

The use of the shear wave velocity data as a field index for evaluating the liquefaction potential of sands is receiving increased attention because both shear wave velocity and liquefaction resistance are similarly influenced by many of the same factors such as void ratio, state of stress, stress history and geologic age. In this paper, the potential of support vector machine (SVM) based classification approach has been used to assess the liquefaction potential from actual shear wave velocity data. In this approach, an approximate implementation of a structural risk minimization (SRM) induction principle is done, which aims at minimizing a bound on the generalization error of a model rather than minimizing only the mean square error over the data set. Here SVM has been used as a classification tool to predict liquefaction potential of a soil based on shear wave velocity. The dataset consists the information of soil characteristics such as effective vertical stress (sigma'(v0)), soil type, shear wave velocity (V-s) and earthquake parameters such as peak horizontal acceleration (a(max)) and earthquake magnitude (M). Out of the available 186 datasets, 130 are considered for training and remaining 56 are used for testing the model. The study indicated that SVM can successfully model the complex relationship between seismic parameters, soil parameters and the liquefaction potential. In the model based on soil characteristics, the input parameters used are sigma'(v0), soil type. V-s, a(max) and M. In the other model based on shear wave velocity alone uses V-s, a(max) and M as input parameters. In this paper, it has been demonstrated that Vs alone can be used to predict the liquefaction potential of a soil using a support vector machine model. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identification of Local Conformational Similarity in Structurally Variable Regions of Homologous Proteins Using Protein Blocks

Structure comparison tools can be used to align related protein structures to identify structurally conserved and variable regions and to infer functional and evolutionary relationships. While the conserved regions often superimpose well, the variable regions appear non superimposable. Differences in homologous protein structures are thought to be due to evolutionary plasticity to accommodate diverged sequences during evolution. One of the kinds of differences between 3-D structures of homologous proteins is rigid body displacement. A glaring example is not well superimposed equivalent regions of homologous proteins corresponding to a-helical conformation with different spatial orientations. In a rigid body superimposition, these regions would appear variable although they may contain local similarity. Also, due to high spatial deviation in the variable region, one-to-one correspondence at the residue level cannot be determined accurately. Another kind of difference is conformational variability and the most common example is topologically equivalent loops of two homologues but with different conformations. In the current study, we present a refined view of the ``structurally variable'' regions which may contain local similarity obscured in global alignment of homologous protein structures. As structural alphabet is able to describe local structures of proteins precisely through Protein Blocks approach, conformational similarity has been identified in a substantial number of `variable' regions in a large data set of protein structural alignments; optimal residue-residue equivalences could be achieved on the basis of Protein Blocks which led to improved local alignments. Also, through an example, we have demonstrated how the additional information on local backbone structures through protein blocks can aid in comparative modeling of a loop region. In addition, understanding on sequence-structure relationships can be enhanced through our approach. This has been illustrated through examples where the equivalent regions in homologous protein structures share sequence similarity to varied extent but do not preserve local structure.

Combining Bayes Classification and Point Group Symmetry under Boolean Framework for Enhanced Protein Quaternary Structure Inference

Our ability to infer the protein quaternary structure automatically from atom and lattice information is inadequate, especially for weak complexes, and heteromeric quaternary structures. Several approaches exist, but they have limited performance. Here, we present a new scheme to infer protein quaternary structure from lattice and protein information, with all-around coverage for strong, weak and very weak affinity homomeric and heteromeric complexes. The scheme combines naive Bayes classifier and point group symmetry under Boolean framework to detect quaternary structures in crystal lattice. It consistently produces >= 90% coverage across diverse benchmarking data sets, including a notably superior 95% coverage for recognition heteromeric complexes, compared with 53% on the same data set by current state-of-the-art method. The detailed study of a limited number of prediction-failed cases offers interesting insights into the intriguing nature of protein contacts in lattice. The findings have implications for accurate inference of quaternary states of proteins, especially weak affinity complexes.

Relative performances of textural models in estimating soil moisture characteristic

The soil moisture characteristic (SMC) forms an important input to mathematical models of water and solute transport in the unsaturated-soil zone. Owing to their simplicity and ease of use, texture-based regression models are commonly used to estimate the SMC from basic soil properties. In this study, the performances of six such regression models were evaluated on three soils. Moisture characteristics generated by the regression models were statistically compared with the characteristics developed independently from laboratory and in-situ retention data of the soil profiles. Results of the statistical performance evaluation, while providing useful information on the errors involved in estimating the SMC, also highlighted the importance of the nature of the data set underlying the regression models. Among the models evaluated, the one possessing an underlying data set of in-situ measurements was found to be the best estimator of the in-situ SMC for all the soils. Considerable errors arose when a textural model based on laboratory data was used to estimate the field retention characteristics of unsaturated soils.

Multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction of daily chaotic rainfall with climate inputs

The basic characteristic of a chaotic system is its sensitivity to the infinitesimal changes in its initial conditions. A limit to predictability in chaotic system arises mainly due to this sensitivity and also due to the ineffectiveness of the model to reveal the underlying dynamics of the system. In the present study, an attempt is made to quantify these uncertainties involved and thereby improve the predictability by adopting a multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. Daily rainfall data of Malaprabha basin, India for the period 1955-2000 is used for the study. It is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with the dimension varying from 5 to 7. A multivariate phase space is generated, considering a climate data set of 16 variables. The chaotic nature of each of these variables is confirmed using false nearest neighbor method. The redundancy, if any, of this atmospheric data set is further removed by employing principal component analysis (PCA) method and thereby reducing it to eight principal components (PCs). This multivariate series (rainfall along with eight PCs) is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with dimension 10. Nonlinear prediction employing local approximation method is done using univariate series (rainfall alone) and multivariate series for different combinations of embedding dimensions and delay times. The uncertainty in initial conditions is thus addressed by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of parameters. The ensembles generated from multivariate predictions are found to be better than those from univariate predictions. The uncertainty in predictions is decreased or in other words predictability is increased by adopting multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. The restriction on predictability of a chaotic series can thus be altered by quantifying the uncertainty in the initial conditions and also by including other possible variables, which may influence the system. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Efficient algorithms for learning kernels from multiple similarity matrices with general convex loss functions

In this paper we consider the problem of learning an n × n kernel matrix from m(1) similarity matrices under general convex loss. Past research have extensively studied the m = 1 case and have derived several algorithms which require sophisticated techniques like ACCP, SOCP, etc. The existing algorithms do not apply if one uses arbitrary losses and often can not handle m > 1 case. We present several provably convergent iterative algorithms, where each iteration requires either an SVM or a Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) solver for m > 1 case. One of the major contributions of the paper is to extend the well knownMirror Descent(MD) framework to handle Cartesian product of psd matrices. This novel extension leads to an algorithm, called EMKL, which solves the problem in O(m2 log n 2) iterations; in each iteration one solves an MKL involving m kernels and m eigen-decomposition of n × n matrices. By suitably defining a restriction on the objective function, a faster version of EMKL is proposed, called REKL,which avoids the eigen-decomposition. An alternative to both EMKL and REKL is also suggested which requires only an SVMsolver. Experimental results on real world protein data set involving several similarity matrices illustrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithms.

Modeling reservoir irrigation in uncertain hydrologic environment

In a detailed model for reservoir irrigation taking into account the soil moisture dynamics in the root zone of the crops, the data set for reservoir inflow and rainfall in the command will usually be of sufficient length to enable their variations to be described by probability distributions. However, the potential evapotranspiration of the crop itself depends on the characteristics of the crop and the reference evaporation, the quantification of both being associated with a high degree of uncertainty. The main purpose of this paper is to propose a mathematical programming model to determine the annual relative yield of crops and to determine its reliability, for a single reservoir meant for irrigation of multiple crops, incorporating variations in inflow, rainfall in the command area, and crop consumptive use. The inflow to the reservoir and rainfall in the reservoir command area are treated as random variables, whereas potential evapotranspiration is modeled as a fuzzy set. The model's application is illustrated with reference to an existing single-reservoir system in Southern India.

Determining Top K Nodes in Social Networks using the Shapley Value

In this paper, we consider the problem of selecting, for any given positive integer k, the top-k nodes in a social network, based on a certain measure appropriate for the social network. This problem is relevant in many settings such as analysis of co-authorship networks, diffusion of information, viral marketing, etc. However, in most situations, this problem turns out to be NP-hard. The existing approaches for solving this problem are based on approximation algorithms and assume that the objective function is sub-modular. In this paper, we propose a novel and intuitive algorithm based on the Shapley value, for efficiently computing an approximate solution to this problem. Our proposed algorithm does not use the sub-modularity of the underlying objective function and hence it is a general approach. We demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithm using a co-authorship data set from e-print arXiv (www.arxiv.org), having 8361 authors.

Mathematical Analysis of Sensor Fusion for Intrusion Detection Systems

Fusion of multiple intrusion detection systems results in a more reliable and accurate detection for a wider class of intrusions. The paper presented here introduces the mathematical basis for sensor fusion and provides enough support for the acceptability of sensor fusion in performance enhancement of intrusion detection systems. The sensor fusion system is characterized and modeled with no knowledge of the intrusion detection systems and the intrusion detection data. The theoretical analysis is supported with an experimental illustration with three of the available intrusion detection systems using the DARPA 1999 evaluation data set.

Multiclass Core Vector Machine

Even though several techniques have been proposed in the literature for achieving multiclass classification using Support Vector Machine(SVM), the scalability aspect of these approaches to handle large data sets still needs much of exploration. Core Vector Machine(CVM) is a technique for scaling up a two class SVM to handle large data sets. In this paper we propose a Multiclass Core Vector Machine(MCVM). Here we formulate the multiclass SVM problem as a Quadratic Programming(QP) problem defining an SVM with vector valued output. This QP problem is then solved using the CVM technique to achieve scalability to handle large data sets. Experiments done with several large synthetic and real world data sets show that the proposed MCVM technique gives good generalization performance as that of SVM at a much lesser computational expense. Further, it is observed that MCVM scales well with the size of the data set.

Rough Core Vector Clustering

Support Vector Clustering has gained reasonable attention from the researchers in exploratory data analysis due to firm theoretical foundation in statistical learning theory. Hard Partitioning of the data set achieved by support vector clustering may not be acceptable in real world scenarios. Rough Support Vector Clustering is an extension of Support Vector Clustering to attain a soft partitioning of the data set. But the Quadratic Programming Problem involved in Rough Support Vector Clustering makes it computationally expensive to handle large datasets. In this paper, we propose Rough Core Vector Clustering algorithm which is a computationally efficient realization of Rough Support Vector Clustering. Here Rough Support Vector Clustering problem is formulated using an approximate Minimum Enclosing Ball problem and is solved using an approximate Minimum Enclosing Ball finding algorithm. Experiments done with several Large Multi class datasets such as Forest cover type, and other Multi class datasets taken from LIBSVM page shows that the proposed strategy is efficient, finds meaningful soft cluster abstractions which provide a superior generalization performance than the SVM classifier.

Non Identical Duplicate Video Detection using SIFT Method

Non-Identical Duplicate video detection is a challenging research problem. Non-Identical Duplicate video are a pair of videos that are not exactly identical but are almost similar.In this paper, we evaluate two methods - Keyframe -based and Tomography-based methods to determine the Non-Identical Duplicate videos. These two methods make use of the existing scale based shift invariant (SIFT) method to find the match between the key frames in first method, and the cross-sections through the temporal axis of the videos in second method.We provide extensive experimental results and the analysis of accuracy and efficiency of the above two methods on a data set of Non- Identical Duplicate video-pair.

A meta-analysis of the traits affecting dispersal ability in butterflies: can wingspan be used as a proxy?

1. Dispersal ability of a species is a key ecological characteristic, affecting a range of processes from adaptation, community dynamics and genetic structure, to distribution and range size. It is determined by both intrinsic species traits and extrinsic landscape-related properties. 2. Using butterflies as a model system, the following questions were addressed: (i) given similar extrinsic factors, which intrinsic species trait(s) explain dispersal ability? (ii) can one of these traits be used as a proxy for dispersal ability? (iii) the effect of interactions between the traits, and phylogenetic relatedness, on dispersal ability. 3. Four data sets, using different measures of dispersal, were compiled from published literature. The first data set uses mean dispersal distances from capture-mark-recapture studies, and the other three use mobility indices. Data for six traits that can potentially affect dispersal ability were collected: wingspan, larval host plant specificity, adult habitat specificity, mate location strategy, voltinism and flight period duration. Each data set was subjected to both unifactorial, and multifactorial, phylogenetically controlled analyses. 4. Among the factors considered, wingspan was the most important determinant of dispersal ability, although the predictive powers of regression models were low. Voltinism and flight period duration also affect dispersal ability, especially in case of temperate species. Interactions between the factors did not affect dispersal ability, and phylogenetic relatedness was significant in one data set. 5. While using wingspan as the only proxy for dispersal ability maybe problematic, it is usually the only easily accessible species-specific trait for a large number of species. It can thus be a satisfactory proxy when carefully interpreted, especially for analyses involving many species from all across the world.

Asparagine and glutamine differ in their propensities to form specific side chain-backbone hydrogen bonded motifs in proteins

Short range side chain-backbone hydrogen bonded motifs involving Asn and Gln residues have been identified from a data set of 1370 protein crystal structures (resolution = 1.5 angstrom). Hydrogen bonds involving residues i - 5 to i + 5 have been considered. Out of 12,901 Asn residues, 3403 residues (26.4%) participate in such interactions, while out of 10,934 Gln residues, 1780 Gln residues (16.3%) are involved in these motifs. Hydrogen bonded ring sizes (Cn, where n is the number of atoms involved), directionality and internal torsion angles are used to classify motifs. The occurrence of the various motifs in the contexts of protein structure is illustrated. Distinct differences are established between the nature of motifs formed by Asn and Gln residues. For Asn, the most highly populated motifs are the C10 (COdi .NHi + 2), C13 (COdi .NHi + 3) and C17 (NdHi .COi - 4) structures. In contrast, Gln predominantly forms C16 (COei .NHi - 3), C12 (NeHi .COi - 2), C15 (NeHi .COi - 3) and C18 (NeHi .COi - 4) motifs, with only the C18motif being analogous to the Asn C17structure. Specific conformational types are established for the Asn containing motifs, which mimic backbone beta-turns and a-turns. Histidine residues are shown to serve as a mimic for Asn residues in side chain-backbone hydrogen bonded ring motifs. Illustrative examples from protein structures are considered. Proteins 2012; (c) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.