Modelling growth and nitrogen balance of barley under ambient and future conditions

Selostus: Ohran kasvun ja typpidynamiikan mallintaminen nykyisissä ja tulevaisuuden olosuhteissa

Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Organic and Nitrogen Fertilization of Soil under ‘Syrah’ Grapevine: Effects on Soil Chemical Properties and Nitrate Concentration

ABSTRACT Viticulture is an activity of great social and economic importance in the lower-middle region of the São Francisco River valley in northeastern Brazil. In this region, the fertility of soils under vineyards is generally poor. To assess the effects of organic and nitrogen fertilization on chemical properties and nitrate concentrations in an Argissolo Vermelho-Amarelo (Typic Plinthustalf), a field experiment was carried out in Petrolina, Pernambuco, on Syrah grapevines. Treatments consisted of two rates of organic fertilizer (0 and 30 m3 ha-1) and five N rates (0, 10, 20, 40, and 80 kg ha-1), in a randomized block design arranged in split plots, with five replications. The organic fertilizer levels represented the main plots and the N levels, the subplots. The source of N was urea and the source of organic fertilizer was goat manure. Irrigation was applied through a drip system and N by fertigation. At the end of the third growing season, soil chemical properties were determined and nitrate concentration in the soil solution (extracted by porous cups) was determined. Organic fertilization increased organic matter, pH, EC, P, K, Ca, Mg, Mn, sum of bases, base saturation, and CEC, but decreased exchangeable Cu concentration in the soil by complexation of Cu in the organic matter. Organic fertilization raised the nitrate concentration in the 0.20-0.40 m soil layer, making it leachable. Nitrate concentration in the soil increased as N rates increased, up to more than 300 mg kg-1 in soil and nearly 800 mg L-1 in the soil solution, becoming prone to leaching losses.

Circum-Alpine marine circulation and paleoenvironmental conditions during the Miocene

Trace element and isotopic compositions of marine fossils and sediment were analyzed from several Miocene deposits in the circum-Alpine region in order to reconstruct the paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic changes related to sea level changes, basin evolution and Alpine orogeny. To the north and the east the Alps were border by an epicontinental sea, the Paratethys, while to the south the Mediterranean surrounded the uplifting mountains during the Miocene. The thesis mainly focused on sediments and fossils sampled from Miocene beds of these two oceanic provinces. The north Alpine Molasse, the Vienna and Pannonian Basins were located in the Western and Central Paratethys. O-isotope compositions of well-preserved phosphatic fossils in these sediments support deposition under sub-tropical to warm-temperate climate with water temperatures between 14 to 28 °C for the Miocene. δ18O values of fossil shark teeth from different horizons vary similarly to those of the global trend until the end of the Badenian, however the δ18O values show wider range, which indicates local effects iii the sub-basins. The trend of 87Sr/86Sr in the samples roughly agrees with an open ocean environment for the Miocene. Yet a number of samples deviate from typical open ocean compositions with higher ratios suggesting modification of seawater by local and old terrestrial sources. In contrast, two exceptional teeth from the locality of La Moliere have extremely low δ18O values and low 87Sr/86Sr. However, the REE patterns of their enameloid are similar to those of teeth having O and Sr isotopic compositions typical of a marine setting at this site. Collectively, this suggests that the two teeth formed while the sharks frequented a freshwater environment with very low 18O-content and 87Sr/86Sr controlled by Mesozoic calcareous rocks. This is consistent with a paleogeography of high-elevation (~2300m) Miocene Alps adjacent to a marginal sea. The local effects are also reflected in the εNd values of the Paratethyan fossils, which is compatible with input from ancient crystalline rocks and Mesozoic sediments, while other samples with elevated εNd values indicate an influence of Neogene volcanism on the water budget. Excluding samples whose isotopic compositions reflect a local influence on the water column, an average εNd value of -7.9 ± 0.5 may be inferred for the Paratethys seawater. This value is indistinguishable from the Miocene value of the Indian Ocean, supporting a dominant role of ludo-Pacific water masses in the Paratethys. Regarding the Mediterranean, stable C-and O-isotope compositions of benthic and planktonic foraminifera from the Umbria-Marche region (UMC) have an offset typical for their habitats and the changes in composition mimic global changes, suggesting that the regional conditions of climate and the carbon cycle were controlled by global changes. The radiogenic isotope compositions of the fossil assemblages allow for distinction of periods. From 25 to 19 Ma, high εNd values and low 87Sr/86Sr of sediments and fossils support intense tectonism and volcanism, related to the opening of the western Mediterranean. Between 19 and 13 Ma the Mediterranean has εNd values that are largely controlled by incursion of Indian Ocean water. Brief periods of local hinterland control on seawater compositions are indicated by spikes in the εNd record, coinciding with volcanic events and a short sea-level decrease at about 15.2 Ma. Lower 87Sr/86Sr compared to the open ocean is compatible with rapid uplift of the hinterland and intense influx of Sr from Mesozoic carbonates of the western Apennines, while higher 87Sr/86Sr for other sites indicates erosion of old crustal silicate rocks. Finally, from 13 to 7 Ma the fossils have 87Sr/86Sr similar to those of Miocene seawater and their εNd values indicates fluctuating influence of Atlantic, and Indian Ocean or Paratethys sources of seawater entering the Mediterranean, driven by global sealevel changes and local tectonism. RÉSUMÉ DE LA THÈSE Les compositions en éléments traces et isotopiques de fossiles marins et de sédiments on été analysées à partir de nombreux dépôts marins dans la région circum Alpine dans le but de reconstruire les changements paléocéanographiques et paléoclimatiques liés aux changements du niveau marin, à l'évolution en bassins et à l'orogénie alpine. Au nord et à l'est des Alpes, une mer épicontinentale appelée Paratéthys s'est ouverte, alors que plus au sud la mer Méditerranée bordait au Miocène les Alpes naissantes. Le but de cette recherche est de se concentrer sur les sédiments et les fossiles provenant des couches du Miocènes de ces deux provinces marines. Les bassins de la Molasse Alpine du nord, de Vienne et Pannonien étaient situés au niveau de la Paratéthys Occidentale et Centrale. Les compositions isotopiques de l'oxygène de fossiles phosphatés bien préservés dans ces sédiments étayent la théorie d'un dépôt sous un climat subtropical à tempéré chaud avec des températures entre 14 et 28°C pendant le Miocène. Les valeurs δ18O des fossiles sont similaires à la tendance globale jusqu'à la fin du Badénien. Cependant les larges fluctuations en δ18O indiquent des effets locaux au niveau des sous bassins. En outre, deux dents de requin exceptionnelles présentent des valeurs extrêmement basses de δ18O. Ces données suggèrent que ces deux dents se sont formées alors que les requins fréquentaient un environnement d'eau douce avec de faibles valeurs de 18O. Le calcul de la composition isotopique de l'oxygène de cette eau douce permet d'obtenir une estimation de la paléoélévatian moyenne des Alpes du Miocène (~2300m). La tendance 87Sr/86Sr pour ces échantillons concorde approximativement avec un environnement d'océan ouvert au cours du Miocène. Toutefois un nombre d'échantillons dévie des compositions d'océan ouvert typiques, avec des rapports élevés suggérant des modifications de l'eau de mer par des sources locales et terrestres. Les effets locaux sont aussi reflétés au niveau des valeurs en εNd des fossiles paratéthysiens. Ceci est cohérent avec un apport d'anciennes roches cristallines et de sédiments mésozoïques, tandis que d'autres échantillons avec des valeurs hautes de εNd indiquent une influence d'un volcanisme néogène dans le budget marin. En excluant les échantillons dont les compositions isotopiques confirment une influence locale, une valeur moyenne de εNd de 7.9 t 0.5 peut être déduite pour l'eau de la Parathétys. Cette valeur est semblable à la valeur correspondant à l'Océan Indien durant le Miocène, confirmant un rôle dominant de cet océan dans la Paratéthys. Au niveau de la Méditerranée, les compositions en isotopes stables du Carbone et de l'Oxygène de foraminifères planctoniques et benthique de la région Umbria-Marche présentent un offset typique à leurs habitats. De plus les changements dans leurs compositions suivent les changements globaux, suggérant ainsi que les conditions climatiques régionales et le cycle du carbone étaient contrôlés par des phénomènes globaux. La composition en isotopes radiogéniques d'assemblages fossiles permet une reconnaissance sur trois périodes distinctes. De 25 à 19 millions d'années (Ma), des valeurs élevées de εNd et un faible rapport 87Sr/86Sr dans les sédiments soutiennent l'idée d'une activité tectonique et volcanique intense, liée à l'ouverture de la Méditerranée occidentale. Entre 19 et 13 Ma, la Méditerranée montre des valeurs de εNd qui sont largement contrôlées par une incursion d'eau provenant de l'Océan Indien. En effet, aux alentours de 15,2 Ma, des pics dans l'enregistrement des valeurs de εNd, coïncidant avec des événements volcaniques et de brèves diminutions du niveau marin. Enfin, de 13 à 7 Ma, les fossiles ont des rapports ß7Sr/8fiSr similaires à ceux de l'eau de mer au Miocène. Leurs valeurs de εNd indiquent une influence changeante de l'océan Atlantique, et de l'océan Indien ou des sources d'eau de merde la Parathétys qui entrent dans les bassins méditerranéens. Ce changement est guidé par des modifications globales du niveau marin et par la tectonique locale. RÉSUMÉ DE LA THÈSE (POUR LE GRAND PUBLIC) Les analyses des compositions en éléments traces et isotopiques des fossiles marins sont un outil très utile pour reconstruire les conditions océaniques et climatiques anciennes. Ce travail de thèse se concentre sur les sédiments déposés dans un environnement marin proches des Alpes au cours du Miocène, entre 23 et 7 millions d'années (Ma). Cette période est caractérisée par une tectonique alpine active, ainsi que par des changements climatiques et océanographiques globaux importants. Dans le but de tracer ces changements, les compositions isotopiques du Strontium, du Néodyme, de l'Oxygène et du Carbone ont été analysées dans des fossiles bien préservés ainsi que les sédiments contemporains. Les échantillons proviennent de deux provinces océaniques distinctes, la première est la Mer Méditerranée, et l'autre est une mer épicontinentale appelée Parathétys, qui existait au nord et à l'est des Alpes durant le Miocène. Au niveau de la Parathétys Occidentale et Orientale, les compositions isotopiques d'oxygène de dents de requins confirment un dépôt sous un climat subtropical à tempéré chaud avec des températures d'eau entre 14 et 28°C au Miocène. En outre, deux dents de requins exceptionnelles ont enregistré des compositions isotopiques d'oxygène extrêmement basses. Cela suggère que ces deux dents se sont formées alors que les requins entraient dans un système d'eau douce. Le calcul de la composition isotopique de l'oxygène de cette eau douce permet d'obtenir une estimation de la paléoélévation des Alpes au Miocène qui est aussi élevée que celle d'aujourd'hui. La tendance isotopique du Strontium pour ces échantillons concorde approximativement avec un environnement d'océan ouvert. Cependant un certain nombre d'échantillons indique des modifications de l'eau de mer par des sources terrestres locales. Les effets locaux sont aussi visibles au niveau des compositions isotopiques du Néodyme, qui sont en accord avec un apport provenant de roches cristallines anciennes et de sédiments du Mésozoïque, alors que d'autres échantillons indiquent une influence volcanique néogène dans le budget marin. A l'exclusion des échantillons dont les compositions correspondent à une influence locale, les compositions isotopiques du Néodyme de la Parathétys sont très similaires aux valeurs de l'Océan Indien, montrant ainsi un rôle important des masses d'eau IndoPacifiques dans cette région. Au niveau de la Méditerranée, les compositions en isotopes stables du Carbone et de l'Oxygène de foraminifères planctoniques et benthique de la région Umbria-Marche présentent un offset typique à leurs habitats. De plus, les changements dans leurs compositions suivent les changements globaux, suggérant ainsi que les conditions climatiques régionales et le cycle du carbone étaient contrôlés par des phénomènes globaux. La composition en isotopes radiogéniques d'assemblages fossiles permet une reconnaissance sur trois périodes distinctes. De 25 à 19 Ma, des rapport isotopiques élevés pour le Néodyme et faibles pour le Strontium dans les sédiments et les fossiles soutiennent l'idée d'une activité tectonique et volcanique intense, liée à l'ouverture de la Méditerranée occidentale. Entre 19 et 13 Ma, la Méditerranée présente des rapports isotopiques du Néodyme qui sont largement contrôlés par une incursion d'eau provenant de l'Océan Indien. En effet, aux alentours de 15,2 Ma, des pics dans l'enregistrement des valeurs des isotopes du Néodyme coïncident avec des événements volcaniques et de brèves diminutions du niveau marin. Finalement, de 13 à 7 Ma, les fossiles ont des rapports isotope Strontium similaires à ceux de l'eau de mer au Miocène. Les rapports isotopiques du Néodyme indiquent une influence changeante de l'océan Atlantique, et de l'océan Indien ou des sources d'eau de mer de la Parathétys qui entrent dans les bassins méditerranéens. Ce changement est guidé par des modifications globales du niveau marin et par la tectonique locale.

Citizens' preferences for brand name drugs for treating acute and chronic conditions: a pilot study.

Background: Generic drugs have been advocated to decrease the proportion of healthcare costs devoted to drugs, but are still underused. Objective: To assess citizens' preferences for brand name drugs (BNDs) compared with generic drugs for treating acute and chronic conditions. Methods: A questionnaire with eight hypothetical scenarios describing four acute and four chronic conditions was developed, with willingness to pay (WTP) determined using a payment card system randomized to ascending (AO) or descending order (DO) of prices. The questionnaire was distributed with an explanation sheet, an informed consent form and a pre-stamped envelope over a period of 3 weeks in 19 community pharmacies in Lausanne, Switzerland. The questionnaire was distributed to every third customer who also had health insurance, understood French and was aged =16 years (up to a maximum of ten customers per day and 100 per pharmacy). The main outcome measure was preferences assessed by WTP for BNDs as compared with generics, and impact of participants' characteristics on WTP. Results: Of the 1800 questionnaires, 991 were distributed and 393 returned (pharmacy participation rate?=?55%, subject participation rate?=?40%, overall response rate?=?22%); 51.7% were AO and 48.3% DO. Participants were predominantly women (62.6%) and of median age 62 years (range 16-90). The majority (70%) declared no WTP for BNDs as compared with generics. WTP was higher in people with an acute disease than in those with a chronic disease, did not depend on the type of chronic disease, and was higher in people from countries other than Switzerland. Conclusions: Most citizens visiting pharmacies attribute no added value to BNDs as compared with generics, although some citizen characteristics affected WTP. These results could be of interest to several categories of decision makers within the healthcare system.

Schizotypy as an organizing framework for social and affective sciences

Schizotypy, defined in terms of commonly occurring personality traits related to the schizophrenia spectrum, has been an important construct for understanding the neurodevelopment and stress-diathesis of schizophrenia. However, as schizotypy nears its sixth decade of application, it is important to acknowledge its impressively rich literature accumulating outside of schizophrenia research. In this article, we make the case that schizotypy has considerable potential as a conceptual framework for understanding individual differences in affective and social functions beyond those directly involved in schizophrenia spectrum pathology. This case is predicated on (a) a burgeoning literature noting anomalies in a wide range of social functioning, affiliative, positive and negative emotional, expressive, and social cognitive systems, (b) practical and methodological features associated with schizotypy research that help facilitate empirical investigation, and (c) close ties to theoretical constructs of central importance to affective and social science (eg, stress diathesis, neural compensation). We highlight recent schizotypy research, ie providing insight into the nature of affective and social systems more generally. This includes current efforts to clarify the neurodevelopmental, neurobiological, and psychological underpinnings of affiliative drives, hedonic capacity, social cognition, and stress responsivity systems. Additionally, we discuss neural compensatory and resilience factors that may mitigate the expression of stress-diathesis and functional outcome, and highlight schizotypy's potential role for understanding cultural determinants of social and affective functions.

Social and temporal organization in an ant colony

Ant colonies are known for their complex and efficient social organization that com-pletely lacks hierarchical structure. However, due to methodological difficulties in follow¬ing all ants of a colony, it was until now impossible to investigate the social and temporal organization of colonies. We developed a tracking system that allows tracking the posi¬tions and orientations of several hundred individually labeled ants continuously, providing for the first time quantitative long term data on all individuals of a colony. These data permit reconstructing trajectories, activity patterns and social networks of all ants in a colony and enable us to investigate ant behavior quantitatively in previously unpreceded ways. By analyzing the spatial positions and social interactions of all ants in six colonies for 41 days we show that ant colonies are organized in groups of nurses, nest patrollers and foragers. Workers of each group were highly interconnected and occupied similar spa¬tial locations in the nest. Groups strongly segregated spatially, and were characterized by unique behavioral signatures. Nurses spent most of their time on the brood. Nest patrollers frequently visited the rubbish pile, and foragers frequently visited the forag¬ing arena. In addition nurses were on average younger than nest patrollers who were, in turn, younger than foragers. We further show that workers had a preferred behav¬ioral trajectory and moved from nursing to nest patrolling, and from nest patrolling to foraging. By analyzing the activity patterns of all ants we show that only a third of all workers in a colony exhibit circadian rhythms and that these rhythms shortened by on av¬erage 42 minutes in constant darkness, thereby demonstrating the presence of a functional endogenous clock. Most rhythmic workers were foragers suggesting that rhythmicity is tightly associated with task. Nurses and nest patrollers were arrhythmic which most likely reflects plasticity of the circadian clock, as isolated workers in many species exhibit circadian rhythmicity. Altogether our results emphasize that ant colonies, despite their chaotic appearance, repose on a strong underlying social and temporal organization. - Les colonies de fourmis sont connues pour leur organisation sociale complexe et effi-cace, charactérisée par un manque absolu de structure hiérarchique. Cependant, puisqu'il est techniquement très difficile de suivre toutes les fourmis d'une colonie, il a été jusqu'à maintenant impossible d'étudier l'organisation sociale et temporelle des colonies de four-mis. Nous avons développé un système qui permet d'extraire en temps réel à partir d'images vidéo les positions et orientations de plusieurs centaines de fourmis marquées individuellement. Nous avons pu ainsi générer pour la première fois des données quanti-tatives et longitudinales relatives à des fourmis appartenant à une colonie. Ces données nous ont permis de reconstruire la trajectoire et l'activité de chaque fourmi ainsi que ses réseaux sociaux. Ceci nous a permis d'étudier de manière exhaustive et objective le com-portement de tous les individus d'une colonie. En analysant les données spatiales et les interactions sociales de toutes les fourmis de six colonies qui ont été filmées pendant 41 jours, nous montrons que les fourmis d'une même colonie se répartissent en trois groupes: nourrices, patrouilleuses et approvisionneuses. Les fourmis d'un même groupe interagis-sent fréquemment et occupent le même espace à l'intérieur du nid. L'espace propre à un groupe se recoupe très peu avec celui des autres. Chaque groupe est caractérisé par un comportement typique. Les nourrices s'affairent surtout autour du couvain. Les pa-trouilleuses font de fréquents déplacements vers le tas d'ordures, et les approvisionneuses sortent souvent du nid. Les nourrices sont en moyenne plus jeunes que les patrouilleuses qui, à leur tour, sont plus jeunes que les approvisionneuses. De plus, nous montrons que les ouvrières changent de tâche au cours de leur vie, passant de nourrice à patrouilleuse puis à approvisionneuse. En analysant l'activité de chaque fourmi, nous montrons que seulement un tiers des ouvrières d'une colonie présente des rythmes circadiens et que ces rythmes diminuent en moyenne de 42 minutes lorsqu'il y a obscurité constante, ce qui démontre ainsi la présence d'une horloge endogène. De plus, la plupart des approvi¬sionneuses ont une activité rythmique alors que les nourrices et patrouilleuses présentent une activité arythmique, ce qui suggère que la rythmicité est étroitement associée à la tâche. L'arythmie des nourrices et patrouilleuses repose probablement sur une plasticité de l'horloge endogène car des ouvrières de nombreuses espèces font preuve d'une ryth¬micité circadienne lorsqu'elles sont isolées de la colonie. Dans l'ensemble nos résultats révèlent qu'une colonie de fourmis se fonde sur une solide organisation sociale et tem¬porelle malgré son apparence chaotique.

The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study

In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.

Albedo and estimates of net radiation for green beans under polyethylene cover and field conditions

This paper describes the albedo (r) and estimates of net radiation and global solar irradiance for green beans crop (Phaseolus vulgaris L.), cultivated in greenhouse with cover of polyethylene and field conditions, in Botucatu, SP, Brazil (22º 54' S; 48º 27' W; 850 m). The solar global irradiance (Rg) and solar reflected radiation (Rr) were used to estimate the albedo through the ratio between Rr and Rg. The diurnal curves of albedo were obtained for days with clear sky and partially cloudy conditions, for different phenological stages of the crop. The albedo ranged with the solar elevation, the environment and the phenological stages. The cloudiness range have almost no influence on the albedo diurnal amount. The estimation of radiation were made by linear regression, using the global solar irradiance (Rg) and net short-waves radiation (Rc) as independent variables. All estimates of radiation showed better adjustment for specific phenological periods compared to the entire crop growing cycle. The net radiation in the greenhouse has been estimated by the global solar irradiance measured at field conditions.