Comparing CFSR and conventional weather data for discharge and soil loss modelling with SWAT in small catchments in the Ethiopian Highlands

Accurate rainfall data are the key input parameter for modelling river discharge and soil loss. Remote areas of Ethiopia often lack adequate precipitation data and where these data are available, there might be substantial temporal or spatial gaps. To counter this challenge, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) readily provides weather data for any geographic location on earth between 1979 and 2014. This study assesses the applicability of CFSR weather data to three watersheds in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia. To this end, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up to simulate discharge and soil loss, using CFSR and conventional weather data, in three small-scale watersheds ranging from 112 to 477 ha. Calibrated simulation results were compared to observed river discharge and observed soil loss over a period of 32 years. The conventional weather data resulted in very good discharge outputs for all three watersheds, while the CFSR weather data resulted in unsatisfactory discharge outputs for all of the three gauging stations. Soil loss simulation with conventional weather inputs yielded satisfactory outputs for two of three watersheds, while the CFSR weather input resulted in three unsatisfactory results. Overall, the simulations with the conventional data resulted in far better results for discharge and soil loss than simulations with CFSR data. The simulations with CFSR data were unable to adequately represent the specific regional climate for the three watersheds, performing even worse in climatic areas with two rainy seasons. Hence, CFSR data should not be used lightly in remote areas with no conventional weather data where no prior analysis is possible.

Mr. M. Alexander [Illustration] : King's Council; der gegenwärtige Präsident des Board of Deputies

Scan von Monochrom-Mikroform

Monetary Policy Under a Currency Board

The consensus view is that central banks under currency boards do not have tools for active monetary policy. In this paper, we analyze the foreign exchange fee as a monetary policy instrument that can be used by a central bank under a currency board. We develop a general equilibrium model showing that changes in this fee may have the same effects as a change in the monetary policy stance. Thus central banks under the currency board are shown to have an avenue to implement active monetary policy.

Von Herrn Lionel L. Cohen, Präsidenten des "Board of Guardians for the Relief of the Jewish Poor" : geht uns das folgende Schreiben zu

Lionel Louis Cohen

Health impacts of extreme weather: Flood fatalities in Texas

Floods are the leading cause of fatalities related to natural disasters in Texas. Texas leads the nation in flash flood fatalities. From 1959 through 2009 there were three times more fatalities in Texas (840) than the following state Pennsylvania (265). Texas also leads the nation in flood-related injuries (7753). Flood fatalities in Texas represent a serious public health problem. This study addresses several objectives of Healthy People 2010 including reducing deaths from motor vehicle accidents (Objective 15-15), reducing nonfatal motor vehicle injuries (Objective 15-17), and reducing drownings (Objective 15-29). The study examined flood fatalities that occurred in Texas between 1959 and 2008. Flood fatality statistics were extracted from three sources: flood fatality databases from the National Climatic Data Center, the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States, and the Texas Department of State Health Services. The data collected for flood fatalities include the date, time, gender, age, location, and type of flood. Inconsistencies among the three databases were identified and discussed. Analysis reveals that most fatalities result from driving into flood water (77%). Spatial analysis indicates that more fatalities occurred in counties containing major urban centers – some of the Flash Flood Alley counties (Bexar, Dallas, Travis, and Tarrant), Harris County (Houston), and Val Verde County (Del Rio). An intervention strategy targeting the behavior of driving into flood water is proposed. The intervention is based on the Health Belief model. The main recommendation of the study is that flood fatalities in Texas can be reduced through a combination of improved hydrometeorological forecasting, educational programs aimed at enhancing the public awareness of flood risk and the seriousness of flood warnings, and timely and appropriate action by local emergency and safety authorities.^

Assessing the relationship between board composition and nonprofit hospital financial performance from a multi-theoretic perspective

This dissertation assesses the relationship between board composition and financial performance for the top 71 major nonprofit hospitals in the United States during the period 2004-2009. The underlying data were collected from copies of IRS Form 990 available at http://www.guidestar.org . The dissertation investigates five factors: board size, board independence (percentage of outsiders), number of MDs, CEO succession and CEO compensation. And it evaluates the results within a multi-theoretic framework drawing on agency theory, resource dependence theory, institutional theory and social network theory. Corporate governance literature suggests that board composition has an important impact on firm financial performance. This dissertation examines whether the same may be true for nonprofit hospitals. The results should help hospital executives make better governance decisions during trying economic times.^

Weather and Growing Season Summary

Precipitation for 2011 was less than the longterm climate average. Early in the year, precipitation lagged behind normal, but then tracked close to the normal accumulation rate from mid-April through mid-August. After that time, precipitation amounts greatly lagged behind normal, and the year ended almost 7 in. behind the long-term average. (Figure 1). Overall, 2011 will be remembered for good moisture early, but ending the season with almost no rainfall.

Weather Inputs to a Warning System for Sooty Blotch and Flyspeck of Apple

Sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS) is a mid- to late-season disease of apple. SBFS fungi show up as dark smudges and clusters of black dots on the fruit surface. Since blemished fruit are downgraded, crop losses can exceed 90 percent of the fresh market value.