A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Surface modification of bovine bone ash prepared by milling and acid washing process

Bovine bone ash is the main raw material for fabrication of bone china, a special kind of porcelain that has visual and mechanical advantages when compared to usual porcelains. The properties of bone china are highly dependent on the characteristics of the bone ash. However, despite a relatively common product, the science behind formulations and accepted fabrication procedures for bone china is not completely understood and deserves attention for future processing optimizations. In this paper, the influence of the preparation steps (firing, milling, and washing of the bones) on the physicochemical properties of bone ash particles was investigated. Bone powders heat-treated at temperatures varying from 700 to 1000 degrees C were washed and milled. The obtained materials were analyzed in terms of particle size distribution, chemical composition, density, specific surface area, FTIR spectroscopy, dynamic electrophoretic mobility, crystalline phases and scanning electron microscopy. The results indicated that bone ash does not significantly change in terms of chemistry and physical features at calcination temperatures above 700 degrees C. After washing in special conditions, one could only observe hydroxyapatite in the diffraction pattern. By FTIR it was observed that carbonate seems to be mainly concentrated on the surface of the powders. Since this compound can influence in the dispersion stability, and consequently in the quality of the final bone china product, and considering optimal washing parameters based on the dynamic electrophoretic mobility results, we describe a procedure for surface cleaning. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd and Techna Group S.r.l. All rights reserved.

OPTIMIZATION OF THE TREATMENT PROCESS FOR RESIDUAL WATER FROM A BEER INDUSTRY

The optimization of the treatment process for residual waters from a brewery operating under the modality of an anaerobic reactor and activated sludge combination was studied in two phases. In the first stage, lasting for six months, the characteristics and parameters of the plant operation were analyzed, wherein a diversion rate of more than 50% to aerobic treatment, the use of two aeration tanks and a high sludge production prevailed. The second stage comprised four months during which the system worked under the proposed operational model, with the aim of improving the treatment: reduction of the diversion rate to 30% and use of only one aeration tank At each stage, TSS, VSS and COD were measured at the entrance and exit of the anaerobic reactor mid the aeration tanks. The results were compared with the corresponding design specifications and the needed conditions were applied to reduce the diversion rate towards the aerobic process through monitoring the volume and concentration of the affluent, while applying the strategic changes in reactor parameters needed to increase its efficiency. A diversion reduction from 53 to 34% was achieved, reducing the sludge discharge generated in the aerobic system from 3670mg TSS/l. with two aeration tanks down to 2947mf TSS/l using one tank keeping the same relation VSS:TSS (0.55) and an efficiency of total removal of 98% in terms of COD.

Modeling and measuring double-frequency jitter in one-way master-slave networks

The double-frequency jitter is one of the main problems in clock distribution networks. In previous works, sonic analytical and numerical aspects of this phenomenon were studied and results were obtained for one-way master-slave (OWMS) architectures. Here, an experimental apparatus is implemented, allowing to measure the power of the double-frequency signal and to confirm the theoretical conjectures. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time stability of soil water storage measured by neutron probe and the effects of calibration procedures in a small watershed

The knowledge of soil water storage (SWS) of soil profiles is crucial for the adoption of vegetation restoration practices. With the aim of identifying representative sites to obtain the mean SWS of a watershed, a time stability analysis of neutron probe evaluations of SWS was performed by the means of relative differences and Spearman rank correlation coefficients. At the same time, the effects of different neutron probe calibration procedures were explored on time stability analysis. mean SWS estimation. and preservation of the spatial variability of SWS. The selected watershed, with deep gullies and undulating slopes which cover an area of 20 ha, is characterized by an Ust-Sandiic Entisol and an Aeolian sandy soil. The dominant vegetation species are bunge needlegrass (Stipa bungeana Trim) and korshinsk peashrub (Carugano Korshinskii kom.). From June 11, 2007 to July 23,2008, SWS of the top1 m soil layer was evaluated for 20 dates, based on neutron probe data of 12 sampling sites. Three calibration procedures were employed: type 1, most complete, with each site having its own linear calibration equation (TrE); type II. with TrE equations extended over the whole field: and type III, with one single linear calibration curve for the whole field (UnE) and also correcting its intercept based on site specific relative difference analysis (RdE) and on linear fitting of data (RcE), both maintaining the same slope. A strong time stability of SWS estimated by TrE equations was identified. Soil particle size and soil organic matter content were recognized as the influencing factors for spatial variability of SWS. Land use influenced neither the spatial variability nor the time stability of SWS. Time stability analysis identified one site to represent the mean SWS of the whole watershed with mean absolute percentage errors of less than 10%, therefore. this site can be used as a predictor for the mean SWS of the watershed. Some equations of type II were found to be unsatisfactory to yield reliable mean SWS values or in preserving the associated soil spatial variability. Hence, it is recommended to be cautious in extending calibration equations to other sites since they might not consider the field variability. For the equations with corrected intercept (type III), which consider the spatial variability of calibration in a different way in relation to TrE, it was found that they can yield satisfactory means and standard deviation of SWS, except for the RdE equations, which largely leveled off the SWS values in the watershed. Correlation analysis showed that the neutron probe calibration was linked to soil bulk density and to organic matter content. Therefore, spatial variability of soil properties should be taken into account during the process of neutron probe calibration. This study provides useful information on the mean SWS observation with a time stable site and on distinct neutron probe calibration procedures, and it should be extended to soil water management studies with neutron probes, e.g., the process of vegetation restoration in wider area and soil types of the Loess Plateau in China. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association between decay fungi and subterranean termites in the wood biodeterioration process of Tipuana tipu (Benth.) O. Kuntze trees of Sao Paulo city, SP

In the present paper the process of wood biodeterioration of tipuana trees planted in 7 regions of the city of Sao Paulo, SP was evaluated. On the sidewalks, 1109 trees were analyzed taking into consideration the occurrence and association of the xylophagous organisms (decay fungi and subterranean termites), the wood deterioration and the BHD (breast height diameter). The percentage of wood internal deterioration (%) was obtained by non destructive analysis, using a penetrometer. The results had shown that 75% of the tipuana trees presented BHD superior to 50 cm, characterizing them as adult. Decay fungi in the roots and/or trunk had been observed in 338 trees (30.5%). Subterranean termites of Heterotermes sp. and Coptotermes gestroi species had occurred in 307 trees (27.7%), the latter in high infestation level. The association between the fungi and termites was observed, as well as its relation with the BHD, where a greater value of BHD meant higher wood biodeterioration intensity. For tipuana trees, the BHD was considered an indicative attribute of the internal deterioration intensity, caused by these xylophagous organisms.

PROPOSAL OF A PERFORMANCE MEASURING SYSTEM APPLIED TO AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION

The leaders` organizations of several different sectors have as characteristic to measure their own performance in a systematic way. However, this concept is still unusual in agricultural enterprises, including the mechanization sector. Mechanization has an important role on the production costs and to know its performance is a key factor for the agricultural enterprise success. This work was generated by the importance that measurement of performance has for the management and the mechanization impact on the production costs. Its aim is to propose an integrated performance measurement system to give support to agricultural management. The methodology was divided in two steps: adjustment of a conceptual model based on Balanced Score Card - BSC; application of the model in a study case at sugar cane mill. The adjustment and the application of the conceptual model allowed to obtain the performance index in a systematic way, that are associated to: costs and deadline ( traditionally used); control and improvement on the quality of operations and support process; environmental preservation; safety; health; employees satisfaction; development of information systems. The adjusted model helped the development of the performance measurement system for the mechanized management systems and the index allows an integrated view of the enterprise, related to its strategic objectives.

Podzolization as a deferralitization process: dynamics and chemistry of ground and surface waters in an Acrisol-Podzol sequence of the upper Amazon Basin

Hydrochemical processes involved in the development of hydromorphic Podzols are a major concern for the upper Amazon Basin because of the extent of the areas affected by such processes and the large amounts of organic carbon and associated metals exported to the rivers. The dynamics and chemical composition of ground and surface waters were studied along an Acrisol-Podzol sequence lying in an open depression of a plateau. Water levels were monitored along the sequence over a period of 2 years by means of piezometers. Water was sampled in zero-tension lysimeters for groundwater and for surface water in the drainage network of the depression. The pH and concentrations of organic carbon and major elements (Si, Fe and Al) were determined. The contrasted changes reported for concentrations of Si, organic carbon and metals (Fe, Al) mainly reflect the dynamics of the groundwater and the weathering conditions that prevail in the soils. Iron is released by the reductive dissolution of Fe oxides, mostly in the Bg horizons of the upslope Acrisols. It moves laterally under the control of hydraulic gradients and migrates through the iron-depleted Podzols where it is exported to the river network. Aluminium is released from the dissolution of Al-bearing minerals (gibbsite and kaolinite) at the margin of the podzolic area but is immobilized as organo-Al complexes in spodic horizons. In downslope positions, the quick recharge of the groundwater and large release of organic compounds lead to acidification and a loss of metals (mainly Al), previously stored in the Podzols.

Is serum amyloid A an endogenous TLR4 agonist?

Serum amyloid A (SAA), a classical acute-phase protein, is produced predominantly by hepatocytes in response to injury, infection, and inflammation. It has been shown that SAA primes leukocytes and induces the expression and release of proinflammatory cytokines. Here, we report that SAA induces NO production by murine peritoneal macrophages. Using specific inhibitors, we showed that NO production was dependent on inducible NO synthase thorough the activation of ERK1/2 and p38 MAPKs. Moreover, SAA activity was decreased after proteolysis but not with polymyxin B, a lipid A antagonist. Finally, we found that NO production was dependent on functional TLR4, a receptor complex associated with innate immunity. Macrophages from C3H/HeJ and C57BL/10ScCr mice lacking a functional TLR4 did not respond to SAA stimulation. In conclusion, our study makes a novel observation that SAA might be an endogenous agonist for the TLR4 complex on macrophages. The contribution of this finding in amplifying innate immunity during the inflammatory process is discussed.

Development and Characterization of L-Alanyl-L-Glutamine Containing Pellets employing Extrusion-Spheronization Method and Drying Process in Fluidized Bad Equipment.

Development and Characterization of L-Alanyl-L-Glutamine Containing Pellets employing Extrusion-Spheronization Method and Drying Process in Fluidized Bad Equipment"". In this work, five formulations of L-alanyl-L-glutamine (glutamine dipeptide) containing pellets with different drug concentration were developed and evaluated: F1 (9.07%); F2 (17.70%); F3 (27.98%); F4 (37.74%) e F5 (47.53%). Pellets were prepared by extrusion-spheronization method and, further, dried in fluidized bad equipment. The following assays were carried out with the batches obtained: granulometry, friability, true density and morphologic analysis. Between the five formulations evaluated, pellets obtained from F3 present best yield (75.80%), most uniform particle size distribution (89.67% of pellets with size in the range of 0.80 to 1.18), most high true density (2.1634 g/ml) and best aspect (1.0795 +/- 0.0410). Due to these features, pellets obtained from F3 were considered adequate to further polymeric coating process in order to produce a multiparticulate system to prolong L-alanyl-L-glutamine release.

Process Capability Indexes Determination on Tabletting Performance during the Process Validation for Metamizol Tablets

The aim of the present study was to provide a numerical measure, through the process capability indexes (PCIs), C(p) and C(pk), on whether or not the manufacturing process can be considered capable of producing metamizol (500 mg) tablets. They were also used as statistical tool in order to prove the consistency of the tabletting process, making sure that the tablet weight and the content uniformity of metamizol are able to comply with the preset requirements. Besides that, the ANOVA, the t-test and the test for equal variances were applied to this study, allowing additional knowledge of the tabletting phase. Therefore, the proposed statistical approach intended to assure more safety, precision and accuracy on the process validation analysis.

CO(2) from Alcoholic Fermentation for Continuous Cultivation of Arthrospira (Spirulina) platensis in Tubular Photobioreactor Using Urea as Nitrogen Source

Carbon dioxide released from alcoholic fermentation accounts for 33% of the whole CO(2) involved in the use of ethanol as fuel derived from glucose. As Arthrospira platensis can uptake this greenhouse gas, this study evaluates the use of the CO(2) released from alcoholic fermentation for the production of Arthrospira platensis. For this purpose, this cyanobacterium was cultivated in continuous process using urea as nitrogen source, either using CO(2) from alcoholic fermentation, without any treatment, or using pure CO(2) from cylinder. The experiments were carried out at 120 mu mol photons m(-2) s(-1) in tubular photobioreactor at different dilution rates (0.2 <= D <= 0.8 d(-1)). Using CO(2) from alcoholic fermentation, maximum steady-state cell concentration (2661 +/- 71 mg L(-1)) was achieved at D 0.2 d(-1), whereas higher dilution rate (0.6 d(-1)) was needed to maximize cell productivity (839 mg L(-1) d(-1)). This value was 10% lower than the one obtained with pure CO(2), and there was no significant difference in the biomass protein content. With D 0.8 d(-1), it was possible to obtain 56% +/- 1.5% and 50% +/- 1.2% of protein in the dry biomass, using pure CO(2) and CO(2) from alcoholic fermentation, respectively. These results demonstrate that the use of such cost free CO(2) from alcoholic fermentation as carbon source, associated with low cost nitrogen source, may be a promising way to reduce costs of continuous cultivation of photosynthetic microorganisms, contributing at the same time to mitigate the greenhouse effect. (C) 2011 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 27: 650-656, 2011

Transient process in ice creams evaluated by laser speckles

When a coherent light beam is scattered from a colloidal medium, in the observation plane, appears a random grainy image known as speckle pattern. The time evolution of this interference image carries information about the ensemble-averaged dynamics of the scatterer particles. The aim of this work was to evaluate the use of dynamic speckles as an alternative tool to monitoring frozen foams formulated with glucose and fructose syrups. Ice creams, after preparation and packing, were stored at 18 degrees C. Changes in properties of products were analyzed by speckle phenomena at three room temperatures (20 degrees C, 25 degrees C and 30 degrees C), minute by minute, during 50 min. Two moments were identified in which samples activity achieved significant levels. These instants were associated, respectively, to ice crystals melting and to air bubbles dissipation into the food matrix causing motion of diverse structures. As expected, ice crystals melting was first in formulations containing fructose syrup, but for same samples, air losses were delayed. Speckle methodology was satisfactory to observe temporal evolution of transient process, opening goods prospects to application, still incoming, in foodstuffs researches. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extraction of Ascorbate Oxidase from Cucurbita maxima by Continuous Process in Perforated Rotating Disc Contactor Using Aqueous Two-Phase Systems

The ascorbate oxidase is the enzyme used to determine the content of ascorbic acid in the pharmaceutical and food industries and clinics analyses. The techniques currently used for the purification of this enzyme raise its production cost. Thus, the development of alternative processes and with the potential to reduce costs is interesting. The application of aqueous two-phase system is proposed as an alternative to purification because it enables good separation of biomolecules. The objective of this study was to determine the conditions to continuously pre-purify the enzyme ascorbate oxidase by an aqueous two-phase system (PEG/citrate) using rotating column provided with perforated discs. Under the best conditions (20,000 g/mol PEG molar mass, 10% PEG concentration, and 25% citrate concentration), the system showed satisfactory results (partition coefficient, 3.35; separation efficiency, 54.98%; and purification factor, 1.46) and proved suitable for the pre-purification of ascorbate oxidase in continuous process.

Biogas production and valorization by means of a two-step biological process

The scope of this research work was to investigate biogas production and purification by a two-step bench-scale biological system, consisting of fed-batch pulse-feeding anaerobic digestion of mixed sludge, followed by methane enrichment of biogas by the use of the cyanobacterium Arthrospira platensis. The composition of biogas was nearly constant, and methane and carbon dioxide percentages ranged between 70.5-76.0% and 13.2-19.5%, respectively. Biogas yield reached a maximum value (about 0.4 m(biogas)(3)/kgCOD(i)) at 50 days-retention time and then gradually decreased with a decrease in the retention time. Biogas CO(2) was then used as a carbon source for A. platensis cultivation either under batch or fed-batch conditions. The mean cell productivity of fed-batch cultivation was about 15% higher than that observed during the last batch phase (0.035 +/- 0.006 g(DM)/L/d), likely due to the occurrence of some shading effect under batch growth conditions. The data of carbon dioxide removal from biogas revealed the existence of a linear relationship between the rates of A. platensis growth and carbon dioxide removal from biogas and allowed calculating carbon utilization efficiency for biomass production of almost 95%. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.