Counting Crime: an explanation of falling crime rates

The current crime decrease is defying traditional criminological theories such as those espoused by Bonger (1916) who researched the relationship between crime and economic conditions and stated that when unemployment rises so does crime. In both the USA and the UK crime has dropped dramatically while unemployment has risen. Both the USA and the UK have been in a deep recession since 2008 but the crime rate has decreased dramatically in both countries. Over the past 20 years it has halved in England and Wales. So how do we explain this phenomenon? Crime is down across the West but more so in Britain (see Figure 1). In England and Wales crime has decreased by 8% in a single year (2013). Vandalism is down by 14% and burglaries and vehicle crime by 11%. The murder rate in the UK is at its lowest since 1978; in 2013, 540 people were killed. Some less serious offences are vanishing too; antisocial behaviour has fallen from just under 4million incidents in 2007-08 to 2.4million. (The Economist 20/4/13). According to the most recent annual results from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), crime is at its lowest level since the survey began in 1981; the most recent annual figures from the survey, Latest figures from the CSEW show there were an estimated 7.3 million incidents of crime against households and resident adults (aged 16 and over) in England and Wales for the year ending March 2014. This represents a 14% decrease compared with the previous year’s survey, and is the lowest estimate since the survey began in 1981.

Spam campaign detection, analysis, and formalization

Les courriels Spams (courriels indésirables ou pourriels) imposent des coûts annuels extrêmement lourds en termes de temps, d’espace de stockage et d’argent aux utilisateurs privés et aux entreprises. Afin de lutter efficacement contre le problème des spams, il ne suffit pas d’arrêter les messages de spam qui sont livrés à la boîte de réception de l’utilisateur. Il est obligatoire, soit d’essayer de trouver et de persécuter les spammeurs qui, généralement, se cachent derrière des réseaux complexes de dispositifs infectés, ou d’analyser le comportement des spammeurs afin de trouver des stratégies de défense appropriées. Cependant, une telle tâche est difficile en raison des techniques de camouflage, ce qui nécessite une analyse manuelle des spams corrélés pour trouver les spammeurs. Pour faciliter une telle analyse, qui doit être effectuée sur de grandes quantités des courriels non classés, nous proposons une méthodologie de regroupement catégorique, nommé CCTree, permettant de diviser un grand volume de spams en des campagnes, et ce, en se basant sur leur similarité structurale. Nous montrons l’efficacité et l’efficience de notre algorithme de clustering proposé par plusieurs expériences. Ensuite, une approche d’auto-apprentissage est proposée pour étiqueter les campagnes de spam en se basant sur le but des spammeur, par exemple, phishing. Les campagnes de spam marquées sont utilisées afin de former un classificateur, qui peut être appliqué dans la classification des nouveaux courriels de spam. En outre, les campagnes marquées, avec un ensemble de quatre autres critères de classement, sont ordonnées selon les priorités des enquêteurs. Finalement, une structure basée sur le semiring est proposée pour la représentation abstraite de CCTree. Le schéma abstrait de CCTree, nommé CCTree terme, est appliqué pour formaliser la parallélisation du CCTree. Grâce à un certain nombre d’analyses mathématiques et de résultats expérimentaux, nous montrons l’efficience et l’efficacité du cadre proposé.

Sigma models for genuinely non-geometric backgrounds

The existence of genuinely non-geometric backgrounds, i.e. ones without geometric dual, is an important question in string theory. In this paper we examine this question from a sigma model perspective. First we construct a particular class of Courant algebroids as protobialgebroids with all types of geometric and non-geometric fluxes. For such structures we apply the mathematical result that any Courant algebroid gives rise to a 3D topological sigma model of the AKSZ type and we discuss the corresponding 2D field theories. It is found that these models are always geometric, even when both 2-form and 2-vector fields are neither vanishing nor inverse of one another. Taking a further step, we suggest an extended class of 3D sigma models, whose world volume is embedded in phase space, which allow for genuinely non-geometric backgrounds. Adopting the doubled formalism such models can be related to double field theory, albeit from a world sheet perspective.

The Use of Proof Planning Critics to Diagnose Errors in the Base Cases of Recursive Programs

This paper reports the use of proof planning to diagnose errors in program code. In particular it looks at the errors that arise in the base cases of recursive programs produced by undergraduates. It describes two classes of error that arise in this situation. The use of test cases would catch these errors but would fail to distinguish between them. The system adapts proof critics, commonly used to patch faulty proofs, to diagnose such errors and distinguish between the two classes. It has been implemented in Lambda-clam, a proof planning system, and applied successfully to a small set of examples.

Inductive Theorem Proving and Computer Algebra in the Mathweb Software Bus

Reasoning systems have reached a high degree of maturity in the last decade. However, even the most successful systems are usually not general purpose problem solvers but are typically specialised on problems in a certain domain. The MathWeb SOftware Bus (Mathweb-SB) is a system for combining reasoning specialists via a common osftware bus. We described the integration of the lambda-clam systems, a reasoning specialist for proofs by induction, into the MathWeb-SB. Due to this integration, lambda-clam now offers its theorem proving expertise to other systems in the MathWeb-SB. On the other hand, lambda-clam can use the services of any reasoning specialist already integrated. We focus on the latter and describe first experimnents on proving theorems by induction using the computational power of the MAPLE system within lambda-clam.

The Productive use of Failure to Generate Witnesses from Divergent Proof Attempts for Coinduction

Coinduction is a proof rule. It is the dual of induction. It allows reasoning about non--well--founded structures such as lazy lists or streams and is of particular use for reasoning about equivalences. A central difficulty in the automation of coinductive proof is the choice of a relation (called a bisimulation). We present an automation of coinductive theorem proving. This automation is based on the idea of proof planning. Proof planning constructs the higher level steps in a proof, using knowledge of the general structure of a family of proofs and exploiting this knowledge to control the proof search. Part of proof planning involves the use of failure information to modify the plan by the use of a proof critic which exploits the information gained from the failed proof attempt. Our approach to the problem was to develop a strategy that makes an initial simple guess at a bisimulation and then uses generalisation techniques, motivated by a critic, to refine this guess, so that a larger class of coinductive problems can be automatically verified. The implementation of this strategy has focused on the use of coinduction to prove the equivalence of programs in a small lazy functional language which is similar to Haskell. We have developed a proof plan for coinduction and a critic associated with this proof plan. These have been implemented in CoClam, an extended version of Clam with encouraging results. The planner has been successfully tested on a number of theorems.

Nonlinear periodic problems with a jumping reaction

We consider a periodic problem driven by the scalar $p-$Laplacian and with a jumping (asymmetric) reaction. We prove two multiplicity theorems. The first concerns the nonlinear problem ($1

Critical magnetic elds in superconducting systems with semi-metallic bands

In this work, we study the Zeeman splitting effects in the parallel magnetic field versus temperature phase diagram of two-dimensional superconductors with one graphene-like band and the orbital effects of perpendicular magnetic fields in isotropic two-dimensional semi-metallic superconductors. We show that when parallel magnetic fields are applied to graphene and as the intraband interaction decreases to a critical value, the width of the metastability region present in the phase diagram decreases, vanishing completely at that critical value. In the case of two-band superconductors with one graphene-like band, a new critical interaction, associated primarily with the graphene-like band, is required in order for a second metastability region to be present in the phase diagram. For intermediate values of this interaction, a low-temperature first-order transition line bifurcates at an intermediate temperature into a first-order transition between superconducting phases and a second-order transition line between the normal and the superconducting states. In our study on the upper critical fields in generic semi-metallic superconductors, we find that the pair propagator decays faster than that of a superconductor with a metallic band. As result, the zero field band gap equation does not have solution for weak intraband interactions, meaning that there is a critical intraband interaction value in order for a superconducting phase to be present in semi-metallic superconductors. Finally, we show that the out-of-plane critical magnetic field versus temperature phase diagram displays a positive curvature, contrasting with the parabolic-like behaviour typical of metallic superconductors.

Um café pela natureza, qual a melhor opção

O café é originário das florestas tropicais da Etiópia e do Sudão, crescendo sobre uma canópia diversa. Devido ao facto de haver uma tendência para o desaparecimento do sombreamento tradicional e consequente perda de biodiversidade, os sistemas de certificação oferecem a oportunidade de aproximar objectivos económicos, sociais e ambientais de modo a beneficiar os agricultores. Este estudo tem como objectivo dar a conhecer a todos os intervenientes da cadeia de custódia, principalmente aos consumidores, qual a certificação que podem optar por se a sua principal preocupação quando tomam um café for a natureza. Caracterizou-se o valor ecológico do sistema de produção sustentável e do sistema convencional. Analisaram-se e comparam-se os diferentes critérios ambientais dos sistemas de certificação, através da construção de uma matriz. Os resultados sugerem que a certificação que melhor responde ao pretendido é a Rainforest Alliance, no entanto, a dupla ou tripla certificação parecem ser também boas opções. ABSTRACT; Coffee originates in Ethiopia and Sudan’s ram forests, growing above a diverse canephora. Due to the fact that there is a tendency to the vanishing of traditional shadowing and consequent loss of biodiversity, certification schemes offer the opportunity of bringing together economical, social and environmental goals allowing benefits to farmers. This study aims to bring cognizance to every intervenient of the custody chain, mainly to consumers, which certification scheme to choose if their major concern when drinking a coffee is nature. The ecological value of sustainable production system has been characterized as well as the conventional system. Different environmental criteria of certification schemes have been analysed and compared trough the construction of an evaluation template. Results suggest that the certification that better suits the desired goal is the Rainforest Alliance, but double or triple certification also appear as options that might be followed.

Holography, probe branes and isoperimetric inequalities

In many instances of holographic correspondences between a d-dimensional boundary theory and a (. d+. 1)-dimensional bulk, a direct argument in the boundary theory implies that there must exist a simple and precise relation between the Euclidean on-shell action of a (. d-. 1)-brane probing the bulk geometry and the Euclidean gravitational bulk action. This relation is crucial for the consistency of holography, yet it is non-trivial from the bulk perspective. In particular, we show that it relies on a nice isoperimetric inequality that must be satisfied in a large class of Poincaré-Einstein spaces. Remarkably, this inequality follows from theorems by Lee and Wang.

Other-Regarding Preferences in General Equilibrium

We study competitive market outcomes in economies where agents have other-regarding preferences. We identify a separability condition on monotone preferences that is necessary and sufficient for one’s own demand to be independent of the allocations and characteristics of other agents in the economy. Given separability, it is impossible to identify other-regarding preferences from market behavior: agents be- have as if they had classical preferences that depend only on own consumption in competitive equilibrium. If preferences, in addition, depend only on the final allocation of consumption in society, the Sec- ond Welfare Theorem holds as long as an increase in resources can be distributed such that all agents are better off. Nevertheless, the First Welfare Theorem generally does not hold. Allowing agents to care about their own consumption and the distribution of consump- tion possibilities in the economy, we provide a condition under which agents have no incentive to make direct transfers, and show that this condition implies that competitive equilibria are efficient given prices.

Caracterização analítica e geométrica da metodologia geral de determinação de distribuições de Weibull para o regime eólico e suas aplicações

O regime eólico de uma região pode ser descrito por distribuição de frequências que fornecem informações e características extremamente necessárias para uma possível implantação de sistemas eólicos de captação de energia na região e consequentes aplicações no meio rural em regiões afastadas. Estas características, tais como a velocidade média anual, a variância das velocidades registradas e a densidade da potência eólica média horária, podem ser obtidas pela frequência de ocorrências de determinada velocidade, que por sua vez deve ser estudada através de expressões analíticas. A função analítica mais adequada para distribuições eólicas é a função de densidade de Weibull, que pode ser determinada por métodos numéricos e regressões lineares. O objetivo deste trabalho é caracterizar analítica e geometricamente todos os procedimentos metodológicos necessários para a realização de uma caracterização completa do regime eólico de uma região e suas aplicações na região de Botucatu - SP, visando a determinar o potencial energético para implementação de turbinas eólicas. Assim, foi possível estabelecer teoremas relacionados com a forma de caracterização do regime eólico, estabelecendo a metodologia concisa analiticamente para a definição dos parâmetros eólicos de qualquer região a ser estudada. Para o desenvolvimento desta pesquisa, utilizou-se um anemômetro da CAMPBELL.

O belo antro e a grande oliveira : recepções da alegoria da caverna na tradição neoplatônica

Desde a Magna Grécia de Pitágoras, Empédocles e Parmênides, passando pelas relações “perigosas” entre a sabedoria nascente e as tradições órfico-dionisíacas, em nítida continuidade com a mitologia arcaica e as narrativas teogônicas, dialogando com as práticas médicas asclepíades, a filosofia antiga visita cavernas. A caverna da República, uma das mais poderosas e fecundas alegorias do pensamento ocidental, é simultaneamente herdeira e ponto de fuga da longa trajetória dessa metáfora. Não se pretende aqui, no entanto, compreender a imagem platônica como a consumação de uma velha tradição filosófica que “pensa em cavernas”; procura-se, antes, iluminar essa alegoria com a interpretação oferecida pela filosofia acadêmica posterior. No Antro das Ninfas, Porfírio parte de 11 versos de Homero (Od. XIII, 102-112) para habilmente desenhar uma exegese inspirada na teoria platônica da alma. A lectio porfiriana permite sugerir que a imagem da caverna revela algo mais que uma simples alegoria literária. Ela dá prova da existência de relações dialógicas e circulares entre a filosofia platônica e o imaginário religioso popular do mundo antigo. _______________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT

Visual Insight in Geometry

According to a traditional rationalist proposal, it is possible to attain knowledge of certain necessary truths by means of insight—an epistemic mental act that combines the 'presentational' character of perception with the a priori status usually reserved for discursive reasoning. In this dissertation, I defend the insight proposal in relation to a specific subject matter: elementary Euclidean plane geometry, as set out in Book I of Euclid's Elements. In particular, I argue that visualizations and visual experiences of diagrams allow human subjects to grasp truths of geometry by means of visual insight. In the first two chapters, I provide an initial defense of the geometrical insight proposal, drawing on a novel interpretation of Plato's Meno to motivate the view and to reply to some objections. In the remaining three chapters, I provide an account of the psychological underpinnings of geometrical insight, a task that requires considering the psychology of visual imagery alongside the details of Euclid's geometrical system. One important challenge is to explain how basic features of human visual representations can serve to ground our intuitive grasp of Euclid's postulates and other initial assumptions. A second challenge is to explain how we are able to grasp general theorems by considering diagrams that depict only special cases. I argue that both of these challenges can be met by an account that regards geometrical insight as based in visual experiences involving the combined deployment of two varieties of 'dynamic' visual imagery: one that allows the subject to visually rehearse spatial transformations of a figure's parts, and another that allows the subject to entertain alternative ways of structurally integrating the figure as a whole. It is the interplay between these two forms of dynamic imagery that enables a visual experience of a diagram, suitably animated in visual imagination, to justify belief in the propositions of Euclid’s geometry. The upshot is a novel dynamic imagery account that explains how intuitive knowledge of elementary Euclidean plane geometry can be understood as grounded in visual insight.

Threshold behaviour and final outcome of an epidemic on a random network with household structure

This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within 'households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal size) and along the edges of a random graph describing additional social contacts. Heuristically-motivated branching process approximations are described, which lead to a threshold parameter for the model and methods for calculating the probability of a major outbreak, given few initial infectives, and the expected proportion of the population who are ultimately infected by such a major outbreak. These approximate results are shown to be exact as the number of households tends to infinity by proving associated limit theorems. Moreover, simulation studies indicate that these asymptotic results provide good approximations for modestly-sized finite populations. The extension to unequal sized households is discussed briefly.