Climate-based empirical models show biased predictions of butterfly communities along environmental gradients

A better understanding of the factors that mould ecological community structure is required to accurately predict community composition and to anticipate threats to ecosystems due to global changes. We tested how well stacked climate-based species distribution models (S-SDMs) could predict butterfly communities in a mountain region. It has been suggested that climate is the main force driving butterfly distribution and community structure in mountain environments, and that, as a consequence, climate-based S-SDMs should yield unbiased predictions. In contrast to this expectation, at lower altitudes, climate-based S-SDMs overpredicted butterfly species richness at sites with low plant species richness and underpredicted species richness at sites with high plant species richness. According to two indices of composition accuracy, the Sorensen index and a matching coefficient considering both absences and presences, S-SDMs were more accurate in plant-rich grasslands. Butterflies display strong and often specialised trophic interactions with plants. At lower altitudes, where land use is more intense, considering climate alone without accounting for land use influences on grassland plant richness leads to erroneous predictions of butterfly presences and absences. In contrast, at higher altitudes, where climate is the main force filtering communities, there were fewer differences between observed and predicted butterfly richness. At high altitudes, even if stochastic processes decrease the accuracy of predictions of presence, climate-based S-SDMs are able to better filter out butterfly species that are unable to cope with severe climatic conditions, providing more accurate predictions of absences. Our results suggest that predictions should account for plants in disturbed habitats at lower altitudes but that stochastic processes and heterogeneity at high altitudes may limit prediction success of climate-based S-SDMs.

Lymphatic Filariasis in Brazilian Urban Area (Maceió, Alagoas)

A cross-sectional survey conducted among evening students was used to determine the prevalence of Wuchereria bancrofti infection in Maceió, capital of the State of Alagoas, northeast Brazil. A single thick-blood smear was used, being collected between 10 p.m. and 12 a.m. From a total of 29,551 students enrolled at evening elementary schools in the 33 city sectors, 16,569 (56.4%) were random selected for inclusion in the study. From those, 10,857 (65.5%) were interviewed and examined and 73 (0.7%) were found to have microfilaraemia. Autochthonous W. bancrofti carriers live in 10 of the 33 city sectors, suggesting a focal distribution. Moreover, 84% of infections were diagnosed among 29% of all students examined, inhabiting three contiguous sectors at the city central area, presenting infection rates up to 5.3%. Students living in city sectors with prevalence of microfilariae carriers greater than 1% were found to have a higher risk for infection when compared to students from the rest of the town [Relative Odds (RO) 12.8, 95% CI 6.7 - 25.1]. Eleven positive individuals from non endemic areas were living in Maceió for more than 10 years; time of residence in the area was a major risk factor for infection among students not born in the region (p<0.01). Regarding sex, male students presented a higher proportion of positive (RO 1.7, 95% CI 1.1 - 2.9).

Department for Social Development, Belfast City Centre Northside Urban Village, Draft Regeneration Framework. Health Impact Assessment Report

IPH conducted a rapid HIA appraisal in response to the consultation on DSD Draft Regeneration Framework. The Department for Social Development (DSD) has developed a Draft Regeneration Framework for the North West Quarter Part 2 area of Belfast City Centre, to be known as the Northside Urban Village. The Framework, which outlines the vision for the redevelopment of an inner city area of Belfast was released for public consultation in April 2008. In responding to this consultation, the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) conducted a Health Impact Assessment (HIA) in order to assess how the proposed Framework might impact on the health of those living in or close to the area as well as the wider Belfast population. The key recommendations which resulted from this process have been presented to the Department. This paper presents an overview of the HIA conducted.

Climate Change and Health: A platform for action

This paper provides an introduction to the links between climate change and health and aims to inform policy-makers, politicians and the public of the benefits for health from reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)* emissions from food production, transport, energy, and waste. It also highlights the importance of action by the health sector.It presents a platform for action which demonstrates that creating healthy sustainable places and communities can go hand in hand with reducing the negative impacts of climate change.

IPH Submission to Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government Climate Change Response Bill 2010

The main purpose of the Clmate Change Bill is to provide for the adoption of a national policy for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; to support this through the making of mitigation and adaptation action plans; and to make provision for emission reduction targets to support the objective of transition to a low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy.The remit of the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) is to promote cooperation for public health between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland in the areas of research and information, capacity building and policy advice. Our approach is to support Departments of Health and their agencies in both jurisdictions, and maximise the benefits of all-island cooperation to achieve practical benefits for people in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.IPH has a keen interest in the effects of climate change on health. In September 2010 the IPH published a paper – Climate Change and Health: A platform for action - to inform policy-makers and the public about the health benefits in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This paper followed a seminar with international speakers, opened by Minister Gormley, on the same topic in February 2010. 

IPH response to Department for Regional Development's Regional Development Strategy

Key points from the IPH response include: There is growing recognition that the leading causes of illness and death, including heart disease, cancer, respiratory diseases and injuries, may be exacerbated by elements within the built environment which contribute to sedentary lifestyles and harmful environments.  IPH call for greater recognition of the links between regional development and health.   Health inequalities are the preventable and unjust differences in health status experienced by certain population groups.  The RDS has a role to play in tackling health inequalities experienced in Northern Ireland.   Supporting a modal shift in transport methods can lead to improved health and reduced health inequalities.   The RDS plays an important role in addressing climate change which is identified as a major public health concern for the 21st Century.  Creating healthy sustainable places and communities can go hand in hand with reducing the negative impacts of climate change.   IPH recognise the RDS is an overarching strategic framework which will be implemented by a range of other agencies.  To fully appreciate the potential health impacts of the RDS, IPH call for a Health Impact Assessment to be undertaken to fully determine the links with health and potential impact on health inequalities particularly in relation to the implementation strategy.

IPH response to DSD Urban Regeneration and Community Development Policy Framework Consultation

The Urban Regeneration and Community Development Policy Framework for Northern Ireland sets out for DSD and its partners, clear priorities for urban regeneration and community development programmes, both before and after the operational responsibility for these is transferred to councils under the reform of local government. Four policy objectives have been developed, which will focus on the underlying structural problems in urban areas and also help strengthen community development throughout Northern Ireland. The policy objectives are as follows: Policy Objective 1 – To tackle area-based deprivation: Policy Objective 2 – To strengthen the competitiveness of our towns and cities: Policy Objective 3 – To improve linkages between areas of need and areas of opportunity: and Policy Objective 4 –To develop more cohesive and engaged communities. Key points from IPH response Urban regeneration and community development provide a basis for addressing the social determinants of health and reducing inequalities in health. This policy framework presents an opportunity for coherence and complementarity with ‘Fit and Well - Changing Lives’ as part of government’s overall approach to tackling health inequalities. It is now well established that a focus on early years’ interventions and family support services yields significant returns, so prioritising action in these areas is essential. Defined action plans on child poverty are essential if this policy framework is to make a real and lasting difference in deprived urban areas. Development of the environmental infrastructure to improve health in deprived areas should be supported by well-planned monitoring and evaluation. Linking the policy framework to economic development and local community plans will enhance effectiveness in the areas of education, job creation, commercial investment and access to services, which in turn are critical for the economic growth and stability of urban communities. Community profile data and health intelligence (as available through IPH Health Well) could usefully inform central and local government in terms of resource allocation and targeted service delivery.

IPH Submission: Belfast City Centre Northside Urban Village Regeneration Framework - June 2008

IPH welcome the opportunity to comment on the Department for Social Development, Draft Regeneration Framework for the North West Quarter Part 2 area of Belfast City Centre, the ‘Northside Urban Village’. The Framework outlines the vision for the redevelopment of an inner city area of Belfast.    It is recognized that a number of social, economic and environmental factors influence health. Urban regeneration has major implications for health as it includes not only physical redevelopment but also issues such as education, employment, environmental conditions, housing, welfare and healthcare.   Urban regeneration can also help to address health inequalities at a local level, as the areas where regeneration is undertaken are usually marked by poor economic and social conditions. The North West Quarter Part 2 area of Belfast is a historic part of the city. The identified area is one of the most socio-economically deprived areas of not only Belfast but Northern Ireland. The area is characterised by the large number of people who receive income and housing benefits, have low levels of educational qualifications, high rates of long-term illnesses and it is also an area of high long-term unemployment.

Submission to the Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government: Sustainable Residential Development in Urban Areas

The Institute of Public Health in Ireland is an all-island body which aims to improve health in Ireland by working to combat health inequalities and influence public policies in favour of health. The Institute promotes co-operation in research, training, information and policy in order to contribute to policies which tackle inequalities in health.   Over the past ten years the Institute has worked closely with the Department of Health and Children and the Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety in Northern Ireland to build capacity for public health across the island of Ireland.   The Institute takes the view that health is determined by policies, plans and programmes in many sectors outside the health sector as well as being dependent on access to and availability of first class health services. The importance of other sectors is encapsulated in a social determinants of health perspective which recognises that health is largely shaped and influenced by the physical, social, economic and cultural environments in which people live, work and play. Figure 1 illustrates these multi-dimensional impacts on health and also serves to highlight the clear and inextricable links between health and sustainable development. Factors that impact on long-term sustainability will thus also impact on health.

Plate tectonics, seaways and climate in the historical biogeography of mammals

The marsupial and placental mammals originated at a time when the pattern of geographical barriers (oceans, shallow seas and mountains) was very different from that of today, and climates were warmer. The sequence of changes in these barriers, and their effects on the dispersal of the mammal families and on the faunas of mammals in the different continents, are reviewed. The mammal fauna of South America changed greatly in the Pliocene/Pleistocene, when the newly-complete Panama Isthmus allowed the North American fauna to enter the continent and replace most of the former South American mammal families. Marsupial, but not placental, mammals reached Australia via Antarctica before Australia became isolated, while rats and bats are the only placentals that dispersed naturally from Asia to Australia in the late Cenozoic. Little is known of the early history of the mammal fauna of India. A few mammal families reached Madagascar from Africa in the early Cenozoic over a chain of islands. Africa was isolated for much of the early Cenozoic, though some groups did succeed in entering from Europe. Before the climate cooled in the mid-Cenozoic, the mammal faunas of the Northern Hemisphere were much richer than those of today.

Groundwater dating and past climate reconstruction

In the past decade aquifers have increasingly become palaeoclimatic archives in their own right alongside ice cores, sediments and other proxy records. The main tool for this task has been the noble gas palaeo-thermometer in combination with quantitative groundwater dating using radionuclides. Noblegas radionuclides play a unique role as tracers in environmental studies due to their chemical inertness and low concentration making them ideal tracers. The same properties on the other hand make them difficult to measure on natural concentration levels. Therefore for decades low level counting (LLC) was the only method for detecting radioisotopes of argon and krypton at an atmospheric level. In recent times and with the increase of interest and potential applications the analytical efforts with novel detection methods have been intensified. In the talk noble gas groundwater dating techniques over times scales from decades to millions of years are discussed in relation to noble gas palaeo records at different locations in Europe and elsewhere.