Using the damage from 2010 Haiti earthquake for calibrating vulnerability models of typical structures in Port-au-Prince (Haiti)

After the 2010 Haiti earthquake, that hits the city of Port-au-Prince, capital city of Haiti, a multidisciplinary working group of specialists (seismologist, geologists, engineers and architects) from different Spanish Universities and also from Haiti, joined effort under the SISMO-HAITI project (financed by the Universidad Politecnica de Madrid), with an objective: Evaluation of seismic hazard and risk in Haiti and its application to the seismic design, urban planning, emergency and resource management. In this paper, as a first step for a structural damage estimation of future earthquakes in the country, a calibration of damage functions has been carried out by means of a two-stage procedure. After compiling a database with observed damage in the city after the earthquake, the exposure model (building stock) has been classified and through an iteratively two-step calibration process, a specific set of damage functions for the country has been proposed. Additionally, Next Generation Attenuation Models (NGA) and Vs30 models have been analysed to choose the most appropriate for the seismic risk estimation in the city. Finally in a next paper, these functions will be used to estimate a seismic risk scenario for a future earthquake.

Tungsten coil atomic emission spectrometry combined with dispersive liquid–liquid microextraction: A synergistic association for chromium determination in water samples

A novel and environment friendly analytical method is reported for total chromium determination and chromium speciation in water samples, whereby tungsten coil atomic emission spectrometry (WCAES) is combined with in situ ionic liquid formation dispersive liquid–liquid microextraction (in situ IL-DLLME). A two stage multivariate optimization approach has been developed employing a Plackett–Burman design for screening and selection of the significant factor involved in the in situ IL-DLLME procedure, which was later optimized by means of a circumscribed central composite design. The optimum conditions were complexant concentration: 0.5% (or 0.1%); complexant type: DDTC; IL anion: View the MathML sourcePF6−; [Hmim][Cl] IL amount: 60 mg; ionic strength: 0% NaCl; pH: 5 (or 2); centrifugation time: 10 min; and centrifugation speed: 1000 rpm. Under the optimized experimental conditions the method was evaluated and proper linearity was obtained with a correlation coefficient of 0.991 (5 calibration standards). Limits of detection and quantification for both chromium species were 3 and 10 µg L−1, respectively. This is a 233-fold improvement when compared with chromium determination by WCAES without using preconcentration. The repeatability of the proposed method was evaluated at two different spiking levels (10 and 50 µg L−1) obtaining coefficients of variation of 11.4% and 3.6% (n=3), respectively. A certified reference material (SRM-1643e NIST) was analyzed in order to determine the accuracy of the method for total chromium determination and 112.3% and 2.5 µg L−1 were the recovery (trueness) and standard deviation values, respectively. Tap, bottled mineral and natural mineral water samples were analyzed at 60 µg L−1 spiking level of total Cr content at two Cr(VI)/Cr(III) ratios, and relative recovery values ranged between 88% and 112% showing that the matrix has a negligible effect. To our knowledge, this is the first time that combines in situ IL-DLLME and WCAES.

Applying scanning electron microscopy for the ultrastructural and clinical analysis of periprosthetic capsules in implant-based breast reconstruction

La reconstruction en deux étapes par expanseur et implant est la technique la plus répandue pour la reconstruction mammmaire post mastectomie. La formation d’une capsule périprothétique est une réponse physiologique universelle à tout corps étranger présent dans le corps humain; par contre, la formation d’une capsule pathologique mène souvent à des complications et par conséquent à des résultats esthétiques sous-optimaux. Le microscope électronique à balayage (MEB) est un outil puissant qui permet d’effectuer une évaluation sans pareille de la topographie ultrastructurelle de spécimens. Le premier objectif de cette thèse est de comparer le MEB conventionnel (Hi-Vac) à une technologie plus récente, soit le MEB environnemental (ESEM), afin de déterminer si cette dernière mène à une évaluation supérieure des tissus capsulaires du sein. Le deuxième objectif est d‘appliquer la modalité de MEB supérieure et d’étudier les modifications ultrastructurelles des capsules périprothétiques chez les femmes subissant différents protocoles d’expansion de tissus dans le contexte de reconstruction mammaire prothétique. Deux études prospectives ont été réalisées afin de répondre à nos objectifs de recherche. Dix patientes ont été incluses dans la première, et 48 dans la seconde. La modalité Hi-Vac s’est avérée supérieure pour l’analyse compréhensive de tissus capsulaires mammaires. En employant le mode Hi-Vac dans notre protocole de recherche établi, un relief 3-D plus prononcé à été observé autour des expanseurs BIOCELL® dans le groupe d’approche d’intervention retardée (6 semaines). Des changements significatifs n’ont pas été observés au niveau des capsules SILTEX® dans les groupes d’approche d’intervention précoce (2 semaines) ni retardée.

Assessment of Socio-Economic and Climate Change Effects on Water Resources and Agriculture in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries. MEDPRO Technical Paper No. 28/March 2013

This study aims at assessing the socio-economic and environmental effects of different societal and human development scenarios and climate change in the water-scarce southern and eastern Mediterranean. The study develops a two-stage modelling methodology that includes an econometric analysis for the southern and eastern Mediterranean region as a whole and a detailed, integrated socioecological assessment focusing on Jordan, Syria and Morocco. The results show that water resources will be under increasing stress in future years. In spite of country differences, a future path of sustainable development is possible in the region. Water withdrawals could decrease, preserving renewable water resources and reversing the negative effects on agricultural production and rural society. This, however, requires a combination across the region of technical, managerial, economic, social and institutional changes that together foster a substantive structural change. A balanced implementation of water supply-enhancing and demand-management measures along with improved governance are key to attaining a cost-effective sustainable future in which economic growth, a population increase and trade expansion are compatible with the conservation of water resources.

Centennial-scale evolution of Dansgaard-Oeschger events in sediment core MD95-2006

There is much uncertainty surrounding the mechanisms that forced the abrupt climate fluctuations found in many palaeoclimate records during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS)-3. One of the processes thought to be involved in these events is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), which exhibited large changes in its dominant mode throughout the last glacial period. Giant piston core MD95-2006 from the northeast Atlantic Ocean records a suite of palaeoceanographic proxies related to the activity of both surface and deep water masses through a period of MIS-3 when abrupt climate fluctuations were extremely pronounced. A two-stage progression of surface water warming during interstadial warm events is proposed, with initial warming related to the northward advection of a thin warm surface layer within the North Atlantic Current, which only extended into deeper surface layers as the interstadial progressed. Benthic foraminifera isotope data also show millennial-scale oscillations but of a different structure to the abrupt surface water changes. These changes are argued to partly be related to the influence of low-salinity deepwater brines. The influence of deepwater brines over the site of MD95-2006 reached a maximum at times of rapid warming of surface waters. This observation supports the suggestion that brine formation may have helped to destabilize the accumulation of warm, saline surface waters at low latitudes, helping to force the MOC into a warm mode of operation. The contribution of deepwater brines relative to other mechanisms proposed to alter the state of the MOC needs to be examined further in future studies.

Mathematical modelling

The development of a new process model of cement grinding in two-stage mills is discussed. The new model has been used to simulate cement grinding and predicting mill performance in open and closed circuit configuration. The new model considered the two-compartment mill as perfectly mixed slices in series. The breakage rate function uses the back calculation technique to determine offline using drop weight and abrasion tests.

Implicit stochastic Runge-Kutta methods for stochastic differential equations

In this paper we construct implicit stochastic Runge-Kutta (SRK) methods for solving stochastic differential equations of Stratonovich type. Instead of using the increment of a Wiener process, modified random variables are used. We give convergence conditions of the SRK methods with these modified random variables. In particular, the truncated random variable is used. We present a two-stage stiffly accurate diagonal implicit SRK (SADISRK2) method with strong order 1.0 which has better numerical behaviour than extant methods. We also construct a five-stage diagonal implicit SRK method and a six-stage stiffly accurate diagonal implicit SRK method with strong order 1.5. The mean-square and asymptotic stability properties of the trapezoidal method and the SADISRK2 method are analysed and compared with an explicit method and a semi-implicit method. Numerical results are reported for confirming convergence properties and for comparing the numerical behaviour of these methods.

Assessing cost-effectiveness in mental health: vocational rehabilitation for schizophrenia and related conditions

Objective: Existing evidence suggests that vocational rehabilitation services, in particular individual placement and support (IPS), are effective in assisting people with schizophrenia and related conditions gain open employment. Despite this, such services are not available to all unemployed people with schizophrenia who wish to work. Existing evidence suggests that while IPS confers no clinical advantages over routine care, it does improve the proportion of people returning to employment. The objective of the current study is to investigate the net benefit of introducing IPS services into current mental health services in Australia. Method: The net benefit of IPS is assessed from a health sector perspective using cost-benefit analysis. A two-stage approach is taken to the assessment of benefit. The first stage involves a quantitative analysis of the net benefit, defined as the benefits of IPS (comprising transfer payments averted, income tax accrued and individual income earned) minus the costs. The second stage involves application of 'second-filter' criteria (including equity, strength of evidence, feasibility and acceptability to stakeholders) to results. The robustness of results is tested using the multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: The costs of IPS are $A10.3M (95% uncertainty interval $A7.4M-$A13.6M), the benefits are $A4.7M ($A3.1M-$A6.5M), resulting in a negative net benefit of $A5.6M ($A8.4M-$A3.4M). Conclusions: The current analysis suggests that IPS costs are greater than the monetary benefits. However, the evidence-base of the current analysis is weak. Structural conditions surrounding welfare payments in Australia create disincentives to full-time employment for people with disabilities.

Crystallization behavior of (Cu60Zr30Ti10)(99)Sn-1 bulk metallic glass

The crystallization behavior and crystallization kinetics Of (CU60Zr30Ti10)(99)Sn-1 bulk metallic glass was studied by X-ray diffractometry and differential scanning calorimetry. It was found that a two-stage crystallization took place during continuous heating of the bulk metallic glass. Both the glass transition temperature T-g and the crystallization peak temperatures T-p displayed a strong dependence on the heating rate. The activation energy was determined by the Kissinger analysis method. In the first-stage of the crystallization, the transformation of the bulk metallic glass to the phase one occurred with an activation energy of 386 kJ/mol; in the second-stage, the formation of the phase two took place at an activation energy of 381 kJ/mol.

Evaluating trends in abundance of immature green turtles, Chelonia mydas, in the Greater Caribbean

Many long-lived marine species exhibit life history traits. that make them more vulnerable to overexploitation. Accurate population trend analysis is essential for development and assessment of management plans for these species. However, because many of these species disperse over large geographic areas, have life stages inaccessible to human surveyors, and/or undergo complex developmental migrations, data on trends in abundance are often available for only one stage of the population, usually breeding adults. The green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is one of these long-lived species for which population trends are based almost exclusively on either numbers of females that emerge to nest or numbers of nests deposited each year on geographically restricted beaches. In this study, we generated estimates of annual abundance for juvenile green turtles at two foraging grounds in the Bahamas based on long-term capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies at Union Creek (24 years) and Conception Creek (13 years), using a two-stage approach. First, we estimated recapture probabilities from CMR data using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models in the software program MARK; second, we estimated annual abundance of green turtles. at both study sites using the recapture probabilities in a Horvitz-Thompson type estimation procedure. Green turtle abundance did not change significantly in Conception Creek, but, in Union Creek, green turtle abundance had successive phases of significant increase, significant decrease, and stability. These changes in abundance resulted from changes in immigration, not survival or emigration. The trends in abundance on the foraging grounds did not conform to the significantly increasing trend for the major nesting population at Tortuguero, Costa Rica. This disparity highlights the challenges of assessing population-wide trends of green turtles and other long-lived species. The best approach for monitoring population trends may be a combination of (1) extensive surveys to provide data for large-scale trends in relative population abundance, and (2) intensive surveys, using CMR techniques, to estimate absolute abundance and evaluate the demographic processes' driving the trends.

Quantification of lean bodyweight

Background: Lean bodyweight (LBW) has been recommended for scaling drug doses. However, the current methods for predicting LBW are inconsistent at extremes of size and could be misleading with respect to interpreting weight-based regimens. Objective: The objective of the present study was to develop a semi-mechanistic model to predict fat-free mass (FFM) from subject characteristics in a population that includes extremes of size. FFM is considered to closely approximate LBW. There are several reference methods for assessing FFM, whereas there are no reference standards for LBW. Patients and methods: A total of 373 patients (168 male, 205 female) were included in the study. These data arose from two populations. Population A (index dataset) contained anthropometric characteristics, FFM estimated by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA - a reference method) and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) data. Population B (test dataset) contained the same anthropometric measures and FFM data as population A, but excluded BIA data. The patients in population A had a wide range of age (18-82 years), bodyweight (40.7-216.5kg) and BMI values (17.1-69.9 kg/m(2)). Patients in population B had BMI values of 18.7-38.4 kg/m(2). A two-stage semi-mechanistic model to predict FFM was developed from the demographics from population A. For stage 1 a model was developed to predict impedance and for stage 2 a model that incorporated predicted impedance was used to predict FFM. These two models were combined to provide an overall model to predict FFM from patient characteristics. The developed model for FFM was externally evaluated by predicting into population B. Results: The semi-mechanistic model to predict impedance incorporated sex, height and bodyweight. The developed model provides a good predictor of impedance for both males and females (r(2) = 0.78, mean error [ME] = 2.30 x 10(-3), root mean square error [RMSE] = 51.56 [approximately 10% of mean]). The final model for FFM incorporated sex, height and bodyweight. The developed model for FFM provided good predictive performance for both males and females (r(2) = 0.93, ME = -0.77, RMSE = 3.33 [approximately 6% of mean]). In addition, the model accurately predicted the FFM of subjects in population B (r(2) = 0.85, ME -0.04, RMSE = 4.39 [approximately 7% of mean]). Conclusions: A semi-mechanistic model has been developed to predict FFM (and therefore LBW) from easily accessible patient characteristics. This model has been prospectively evaluated and shown to have good predictive performance.

Vascular engineering for bypass surgery

Since the introduction of synthetic vascular grafts in the 1960s, only two-stage endothelial cell seeding has demonstrated any significant improvement over conventional vascular grafts, and its benefits have yet to be demonstrated on a large scale. Tissue engineering is a rapidly expanding field with great potential, but efforts to construct tissue-engineered arterial grafts have, to date, yielded little clinical success. This review explores the latest approaches to the construction of a superior vascular graft, along with its potential for use in the clinic in the future.

Assessing cost-effectiveness of drug interventions for schizophrenia

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of eight drug treatment scenarios for established schizophrenia. Method: Using a standardized methodology, costs and outcomes are modelled over the lifetime of prevalent cases of schizophrenia in Australia in 2000. A two-stage approach to assessment of health benefit is used. The first stage involves a quantitative analysis based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, using best available evidence. The robustness of results is tested using probabilistic uncertainty analysis. The second stage involves application of 'second filter' criteria (equity, strength of evidence, feasibility and acceptability) to allow broader concepts of benefit to be considered. Results: Replacing oral typicals with risperidone or olanzapine has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of A$48 000 and A$92 000/DALY respectively. Switching from low-dose typicals to risperidone has an ICER of A$80 000. Giving risperidone to people experiencing side-effects on typicals is more cost-effective at A$20 000. Giving clozapine to people taking typicals, with the worst course of the disorder and either little or clear deterioration, is cost-effective at A$42 000 or A$23 000/DALY respectively. The least cost-effective intervention is to replace risperidone with olanzapine at A$160 000/DALY. Conclusions: Based on an A$50 000/DALY threshold, low-dose typical neuroleptics are indicated as the treatment of choice for established schizophrenia, with risperidone being reserved for those experiencing moderate to severe side-effects on typicals. The more expensive olanzapine should only be prescribed when risperidone is not clinically indicated. The high cost of risperidone and olanzapine relative to modest health gains underlie this conclusion. Earlier introduction of clozapine however, would be cost-effective. This work is limited by weaknesses in trials (lack of long-term efficacy data, quality of life and consumer satisfaction evidence) and the translation of effect size into a DALY change. Some stakeholders, including SANE Australia, argue the modest health gains reported in the literature do not adequately reflect perceptions by patients, clinicians and carers, of improved quality of life with these atypicals.

Characterisation and environmental application of an Australian natural zeolite for basic dye removal from aqueous solution

An Australian natural zeolite was collected, characterised and employed for basic dye adsorption in aqueous solution. The natural zeolite is mainly composed of clinoptiloite, quartz and mordenite and has cation-exchange capacity of 120 meq/100 g. The natural zeolite presents higher adsorption capacity for methylene blue than rhodamine B with the maximal adsorption capacity of 2.8 x 10(-5) and 7.9 x 10(-5) Mot/g at 50 degrees C for rhodamine B and methylene blue, respectively. Kinetic studies indicated that the adsorption followed the pseudo second-order kinetics and could be described as two-stage diffusion process. The adsorption isotherm could be fitted by the Langmuir and Freundlich models. Thermodynamic calculations showed that the adsorption is endothermic process with Delta H degrees at 2.0 and 8.7 kJ/mol for rhodamine B and methylene blue. It has also found that the regenerated zeolites by high-temperature calcination and Fenton oxidation showed similar adsorption capacity but lower than the fresh sample. Only 60% capacity could be recovered by the two regeneration techniques. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Binocular contrast vision at and above threshold

A fundamental problem for any visual system with binocular overlap is the combination of information from the two eyes. Electrophysiology shows that binocular integration of luminance contrast occurs early in visual cortex, but a specific systems architecture has not been established for human vision. Here, we address this by performing binocular summation and monocular, binocular, and dichoptic masking experiments for horizontal 1 cycle per degree test and masking gratings. These data reject three previously published proposals, each of which predict too little binocular summation and insufficient dichoptic facilitation. However, a simple development of one of the rejected models (the twin summation model) and a completely new model (the two-stage model) provide very good fits to the data. Two features common to both models are gently accelerating (almost linear) contrast transduction prior to binocular summation and suppressive ocular interactions that contribute to contrast gain control. With all model parameters fixed, both models correctly predict (1) systematic variation in psychometric slopes, (2) dichoptic contrast matching, and (3) high levels of binocular summation for various levels of binocular pedestal contrast. A review of evidence from elsewhere leads us to favor the two-stage model. © 2006 ARVO.