Verbalization of Dependencies Between Concepts Built Through Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

The new computing paradigm known as cognitive computing attempts to imitate the human capabilities of learning, problem solving, and considering things in context. To do so, an application (a cognitive system) must learn from its environment (e.g., by interacting with various interfaces). These interfaces can run the gamut from sensors to humans to databases. Accessing data through such interfaces allows the system to conduct cognitive tasks that can support humans in decision-making or problem-solving processes. Cognitive systems can be integrated into various domains (e.g., medicine or insurance). For example, a cognitive system in cities can collect data, can learn from various data sources and can then attempt to connect these sources to provide real time optimizations of subsystems within the city (e.g., the transportation system). In this study, we provide a methodology for integrating a cognitive system that allows data to be verbalized, making the causalities and hypotheses generated from the cognitive system more understandable to humans. We abstract a city subsystem—passenger flow for a taxi company—by applying fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs). FCMs can be used as a mathematical tool for modeling complex systems built by directed graphs with concepts (e.g., policies, events, and/or domains) as nodes and causalities as edges. As a verbalization technique we introduce the restriction-centered theory of reasoning (RCT). RCT addresses the imprecision inherent in language by introducing restrictions. Using this underlying combinatorial design, our approach can handle large data sets from complex systems and make the output understandable to humans.

Achieving a more realistic assessment of rockfall hazards by coupling three-dimensional process models and field-based tree-ring data

Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process-based, three-dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly-resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree-ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631-m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees.

What drives European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) mortality after forest fires of varying severity?

Predicting the timing and amount of tree mortality after a forest fire is of paramount importance for post-fire management decisions, such as salvage logging or reforestation. Such knowledge is particularly needed in mountainous regions where forest stands often serve as protection against natural hazards (e.g., snow avalanches, rockfalls, landslides). In this paper, we focus on the drivers and timing of mortality in fire-injured beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) in mountain regions. We studied beech forests in the southwestern European Alps, which burned between 1970 and 2012. The results show that beech trees, which lack fire-resistance traits, experience increased mortality within the first two decades post-fire with a timing and amount strongly related to the burn severity. Beech mortality is fast and ubiquitous in high severity sites, whereas small- (DBH <12 cm) and intermediate-diameter (DBH 12–36 cm) trees face a higher risk to die in moderate-severity sites. Large-diameter trees mostly survive, representing a crucial ecological legacy for beech regeneration. Mortality remains low and at a level similar to unburnt beech forests for low burn severity sites. Beech trees diameter, the presence of fungal infestation and elevation are the most significant drivers of mortality. The risk of beech to die increases toward higher elevation and is higher for small-diameter than for large-diameter trees. In case of secondary fungi infestation beech faces generally a higher risk to die. Interestingly, fungi that initiate post-fire tree mortality differ from fungi occurring after mechanical injury. From a management point of view, the insights about the controls of post-fire mortality provided by this study should help in planning post-fire silvicultural measures in montane beech forests.

Implications of Longterm Diameter-Limit Harvesting: Effects on Radial Growth of Red Spruce (Picea rubens) and Genetic Diversity of White Pine (Pinus strobus)

For over 3 centuries, diameter-limit harvesting has been a predominant logging method in the northeastern United States. Silvicultural theory asserts that such intensively selective harvesting can lead to genetic degradation. A decrease in softwood productivity has recently been reported in Maine - has a long history of dysgenic selection degraded the genetic resources of Maine softwoods, contributing to a decrease in growth and productivity? This study examines two aspects of potential implications of diameter-limit harvesting: effects on residual phenotypes of red spruce and impacts on genetic diversity of white pine. Radial growth of residual red spruce trees in stands experiencing 50 years of fixed diameter-limit harvesting was measured using annual increment rings and compared with residual red spruce trees in positive selection stands. Trees remaiaing after several rounds of diameter-limit harvesting exhibited sigdicantl y smaller radial sizes throughout their lives, and displayed significantly slower growth rates for the first 80 years of measured growth. These results strongly suggest that the largest and fastest-growing genotypes and their respective gene complexes determining good radial growth have been removed from the diameter-limit stand. Dysgenic selection can be observed in fixed diarneter-limit stands, resulting in a diminished genetic resource and decreased residual stand value. To examine more direct genetic implications of long-term diameter-limit harvesting, microsatellite DNA markers were implemented to study genetic diversity of eastern white pine in Maine. Three age groups of trees were studied: mature trees older than 200 years, juvenile trees 5-30 years old, and embryos. Trees were genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Overall genetic diversity levels of eastern white pine in Maine were extremely high, with an average observed heterozygosity of 0.762. Genetic differentiation was minimal among and between all three age groups, although an excess of heterozygotes was shown in the mature and juvenile groups that was not reflected in the embryo group, which actually had a slight heterozygote deficiency. Allele frequencies did not differ significantly between age groups, but did reveal more rare and low frequency alleles in the embryo groups than in the mature group. Overall, low frequency alleles comprise the largest portion of alleles in the sample population, with no common alleles evident overall. These results suggest that significant genetic degradation has either not occurred for white pine, or that the results of dysgenic selection have not yet emerged. It is clear, however, that selective harvesting could result in a loss of low frequency alleles, which are a primary reserve of evolutionary potential in a species. Implications of these studies affect industrial forestry, regional economics, and ecological concerns for the northeast. Long-term diameter-limit harvesting can lead to a degradation of residual phenotypes, and an overall decrease in stand quality. Potentially, a loss of low frequency, locally adapted alleles could result in a decrease of allelic richness and degradation of the regidnal genetic resource. Decreased genetic variation can lead to seriously limited evolutionary potential of species and ecosystems, particularly in rapidly changing environments. Based on these findings, I recommend a reassessment of any harvesting prescription that includes fixed diameter-limit removals, particularly for species that have low natural genetic diversity levels or a limited natural range, such as red spruce. Maintenance of a healthy genetic reserve can avoid effects of dysgenic harvesting.

Converting Land from Poplar Tree Bioenergy Planting to Cropland: An Example

Many landowners ask about the process and costs for returning land to crop production after trees are cut for biomass. A field on the Squaw Creek bottom, Story County, Iowa was planted to hybrid poplar trees in spring 2000. The trees were planted in rows with a 10-ft spacing. The trees were cut in spring 2010. The resulting field was four acres, and this is the account of the first corn crop in 2011 on the area.

Requerimiento hídrico en álamos de 6 años : Rivadavia, Mendoza (Argentina)

Durante tres años consecutivos se desarrolló el ensayo de riego en álamos de 6 años (Populus euramericana I-214), en el Departamento de Rivadavia, Mendoza, Argentina. El suelo es de textura franco-arenosa. El ensayo se estableció en cuatro bloques completos aleatorizados. El área unitaria fue de 192 m2, con un total de 20 árboles por parcela. Los Intervalos de Riego (IR) fueron 7,14 y 21 días. El número de riegos anuales fue de 21 y la evapotranspiración diaria del cultivo fue de 14.6 mm/día. Los resultados muestran que para el IR = 7 días la Evapotranspiración real (Etc) fue de 2.097 mm; para IR = 14 días fue de 1 467 mm y para IR = 21 días fue de 1 051 mm. El Coeficiente Kc de cultivo se obtuvo al relacionar la Etc con la Evapotranspiración potencial obtenida por la fórmula de Blaney y Criddle y del tanque de evaporación estándar tipo A. Los esultados fueron respectivamente: Kc = 2.95 y 2.06 para IR = 7 días; Kc = 2.07 y 1.45 para IR = 14 días y Kc = 1.47 y 1.05 para IR = 21 días. Del análisis estadístico del volumen de madera producido se concluye que el IR de 7 días fue el mejor para álamos de seis años.

Grapholita molesta : caracterización de una cría artificial

Grapholita molesta (Busck) es considerada plaga principal del duraznero en Mendoza. Sus larvas han sido criadas, en condiciones de laboratorio, con dietas naturales por diversos autores. Los objetivos fueron: 1. poner a punto la cría artificial de la especie; 2. diseñar una jaula para el apareamiento y la oviposición de los adultos; 3. evaluar la eficiencia de la jaula y la dieta larvaria mediante grados día, ciclo biológico, peso de pupas, recuperación de huevoadulto, fecundidad, viabilidad y longevidad. La cría artificial de una especie constituye una herramienta para profundizar sus conocimientos bioetoecológicos y, en consecuencia, aplicarlos en su control. En 1996 se fundó una cría con larvas salvajes alimentadas con manzanas verdes pequeñas del cv. Granny Smith. Los adultos se desarrollaron en una jaula especialmente diseñada. En el ciclo biológico, la recuperación huevo-adulto y la fecundidad se obtuvieron valores superiores a los citados por otros autores pero no ocurrió lo mismo con las otras variables. La cría artificial de Grapholita molesta (Busck) se logró desarrollar por 37 generaciones y la alta fecundidad obtenida es una clave fundamental en el éxito de su mantenimiento.

Requerimiento hídrico en álamos de siete años de edad : Rivadavia, Mendoza, Argentina

Durante tres años consecutivos se desarrolló el ensayo de riego en álamos de siete años (Populus x canadensis I-214) en el Departamento de Rivadavia, Mendoza, Argentina. El suelo es de textura franco-arenosa. El ensayo se estableció en cuatro bloques completos aleatorizados. La parcela unitaria fue de 192 m², con un total de 20 árboles. Los Intervalos de Riego (IR) utilizados fueron 7-14-21 días. Los resultados muestran que para el IR = 7 días la Evapotranspiración real (Etc) fue de 2.215 mm; para IR = 14 días de 1.372 mm y para IR = 21 días de 1.038 mm. El número de riegos anuales para IR = 7 días fue de 22 y la Evapotranspiración diaria del cultivo fue de 14,9 mm/día. El Coeficiente de cultivo (Kc) se obtuvo de relacionar la Etc con la Evapotranspiración potencial obtenida por la fórmula de Blaney y Criddle y por el tanque de evaporación estándar tipo A. Los resultados fueron respectivamente: Kc = 3 y 2,41 para IR = 7 días; Kc = 1,87 y 1,47 para IR = 14 días y Kc = 1,40 y 1,10 para IR = 21 días. Del análisis estadístico del volumen de madera producido se concluyó que el IR de 7 días resultó el más productivo para álamos de siete años.

Efectos de la carga frutal en durazneros

Para determinar el efecto de la carga frutal sobre el peso de frutos y la distribución de calibres se realizó un ensayo en durazneros variedades Bowen, Andross y Ross. Árboles en plena producción, conducidos en vaso tipo californiano e implantados a 6x5 m fueron raleados manualmente 20 días después de iniciado el endurecimiento de carozo. La carga frutal quedó establecida en el rango de 750 a 1 350 frutos/planta en Bowen y Ross y entre 850 y 1400 frutos/planta en Andross. Se realizaron evaluaciones de tamaño final de frutos, producción total y producción destinada a mitades. En las tres variedades se estableció un alto grado de correlación entre la carga frutal y los tres parámetros de evaluación y se observó una respuesta similar a diferentes niveles de carga frutal. A medida que se incrementó la carga frutal, se lograron aumentos en la producción total, aunque disminuyó el peso de frutos. La producción destinada a mitades aumentó en relación con la carga frutal, hasta alcanzar valores máximos con cargas de 1 150 frutos/planta. Luego se estabilizó y, superado un valor crítico en la carga frutal, empezó a disminuir. Para todo el rango de carga utilizado, el peso de frutos y la producción total fueron mayores en Ross. Esta variedad también logró los máximos valores de producción destinada a mitades. Andross superó a Bowen en los tres parámetros evaluados.

La expansión urbana y procesos sociales en Yerba Buena (Gran San Miguel de Tucumán, Tucumán) : countries y barrios privados

En Argentina el auge de las urbanizaciones cerradas se produjo a fines de los ochenta y principios de los noventa y ocurrió en las principales ciudades del país: Buenos Aires (Janoschka 2003; Svampa 2003), Rosario (Bragos et al 2003), Mendoza (Roitman 2003) y Tucumán (Malizia y Paolasso 2007). El fenómeno de las urbanizaciones cerradas también se reproduce, en menor escala, en ciudades intermedias como el Gran San Miguel de Tucumán -GSMT- (Mertins 1995). Este trabajo hace análisis de la distribución espacial de las urbanizaciones cerradas, cambios que se producen en la estructura urbana y procesos sociales resultantes de la interacción entre “los de adentro" y “los de afuera". El mismo se focaliza en el municipio de Yerba Buena, ubicado al oeste del GSMT, dado que concentra la mayor cantidad de urbanizaciones cerradas del aglomerado; en el 2005 ya se habían construido 45 emprendimientos de este tipo. En la actualidad en esta zona se conjugan la vivienda social, la ocupación ilegal de terrenos, los asentamientos precarios y los emprendimientos residenciales destinados a la clase media alta y alta (Müller 2000/01; Mertins 1995). Estos últimos impulsan la conformación de un CBD en rápida expansión y la construcción de centros comerciales, entretenimientos y otros en sus fronteras de avance. Esta expansión produce, a su vez, la fragmentación de la ciudad que se manifiesta en una marcada tendencia hacia una “ciudad de islas", tal como lo expresa Janoschka (2002) en su nuevo modelo de análisis de las metrópolis latinoamericanas.

Pollen record from Golkow, Poland

Janczyk-Kopikowa (1966): The series of the organic deposits, developed in the vicinity of Golkow near Warsaw as oil shales and peats, was laid down in a grough valley and now rests on the deposits of the Middle Polish Glaciation (Riss). The organic deposits are overlain by the fluviale deposits of the North Polish Glaciation (Würm). The locality Golkow occurs beyond the extent of the continental glacier of this glaciation. Polen analysis completed by microfloristic examinations allows to determine the age of the organic series that is thought to be Eemian. The pollen diagram from Golkow does not call in question the stratigraphical position of the deposits investigated mainly due to its characteristic features such as minimum content of coniferous trees in the climatic optimum - about 5%, high percentage of Corylus - 77.5% and well developed phase of hornbeam. It may be well compared with other Eemian diagrams from the area of Poland and reveals much similar features. The development of vegetation at Golkow has depended upon the prevailing climate. At first, the cool climate brings about the development of plants having small thermal requirements. Here belong thin, park-like forests with pine and birch (Pinus, Betula) accompanied by the heliophilic plants such as Hippohäe and Ephedra. Improvement of climate that becomes warm and humid provides for development of deciduous forests prevailing in the climatic optimum, of the interglacial. Decrease of temperature causes a repeated change in the type of forest. This latter changes into coniferous forest with prevailing spruce (Picea) and fir (Abies) at the beginning, and then with pine (Pinus) and birch (Betula). During the Eemian Interglacial, the development of plants at Golkow terminates with a new and long-lasting predominance of pine-birch forests. However, such a longevity may be apparent only. Apparent character of this phenomenon is proved by a fact that the pollen spectra of the warm climatic periods have found their reflex in the oil shale that increased considerably slower than the layers off feebly decomposed peat evidencing the existence of cool pine-birch forests from the decline of the Interglacial. The water basin, in which the polen grains were laid down from surrounding plants is characterized by a calm sedimentation as proved by the occurrence of the oil shale. An insignificant water flow left behind some thin sand laminae. The not too deep basin becomes shallower owing to the growing water vegetation, and marshy vegetation. The growing of the plants causes a complete shallowing of the basin and formation of peat bog in situ, as proved by the peat beds occurring in the section. ---- Gadomska (1966): In the vicinity of Golków a series of organic deposits occurs amounting to 6.5-9.3 m in thickness, and consisting of oil shales, lacustrine silts and sands, as well as peats and peaty silts. The organic deposits fill up an old, small, but fairly deep lake basin, probably of finger-lake origin. It may be seen to-day as a slight lowering of the relief, filled up with soaked ground, stretching from north to south. On the basis of palaeobotanical examinations the organic deposits considered are of Eemian Interglacial age (Z. Janczyk-Kopikowa, 1063). The lower part of the organic series consists of a compact oil shale horizon, the maximum thickness of which may attain up to 8 m. The oil shales contain particularly in their upper part, numerous intercalations of arenaceous silts, dark grey or black in colour, or of sands mainly of lacustrine provenance. At the top of the oil shales are found peats, up to 2.5 m in thickness, covered by black, humus silts with numerous plant remains. The Eemian Interglacial deposits are covered by a series of fluviatile sands belonging partly to the Baltic Glaciation (bottom part of the series), partly to the Holocene (top part of the series). The thickness of the sands is 0.5-3.7 m. Higher up, there are found the Holocene and present-day deposits developed as clayey alluvion, or arenaceous slide rocks, or arenaceous-silty soil.

Palynology and radiocarbon dating on sediment profile PG1756 from Lake Billyakh, NE Siberia, Russia

In this study a radiocarbon-dated pollen record from Lake Billyakh (65°17'N, 126°47'E; 340 m a.s.l.) in the Verkhoyansk Mountains was used to reconstruct vegetation and climate change since about 15 kyr BP (1 kyr=1000 cal. yr). The pollen record and pollen-based biome reconstruction suggest that open cool steppe and grass and sedge tundra communities with Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae, Caryophyllaceae and Selaginella rupestris dominated the area from 15 to 13.5 kyr BP. On the other hand, the constant presence of Larix pollen in quantities comparable to today's values points to the constant presence of boreal deciduous conifer trees in the regional vegetation during the last glaciation. A major spread of shrub tundra communities, including birch (Betula sect. Nanae), alder (Duschekia fruticosa) and willow (Salix) species, is dated to 13.5-12.7 kyr BP, indicating a noticeable increase in precipitation toward the end of the last glaciation, particularly during the Allerød Interstadial. Between 12.7 and 11.4 kyr BP pollen percentages of herbaceous taxa rapidly increased, whereas shrub taxa percentages decreased, suggesting strengthening of the steppe communities associated with the relatively cold and dry Younger Dryas Stadial. However, the pollen data in hand indicate that Younger Dryas climate was less severe than the climate during the earlier interval from 15 to 13.5 kyr BP. The onset of the Holocene is marked in the pollen record by the highest values of shrub and lowest values of herbaceous taxa, suggesting a return of warmer and wetter conditions after 11.4 kyr BP. Percentages of tree taxa increase gradually and reach maximum values after 7 kyr BP, reflecting the spread of boreal cold deciduous and taiga forests in the region. An interval between 7 and 2 kyr BP is noticeable for the highest percentages of Scots spine (Pinus subgen. Diploxylon), spruce (Picea) and fir (Abies) pollen, indicating mid-Holocene spread of boreal forest communities in response to climate amelioration and degradation of the permafrost layer.

Espacios de consumo populares : Las ferias comerciales de indumentaria en Argentina

En el periodo actual, la expansión del consumo en el territorio se materializa en las ciudades evidenciándose el avance y la instalación de diferentes espacios de consumo. Por un lado, espacios de consumo de grandes capitales del circuito superior como son los shopping center, supermercados e hipermercados y por otro lado, espacios de consumo populares como las ferias comerciales de indumentaria y accesorios, denominadas muchas veces shopping populares, con características distintivas del circuito inferior de la economía urbana (Santos, 1979). En este sentido, se observa que cada vez más las variables distintivas del período como son la técnica, la información, la publicidad, las finanzas, el crédito, entre otras, se hacen presentes en este tipo de actividades.Proponemos en este artículo reflexionar sobre la importancia de estas variables haciendo énfasis en el consumo y en los diversos espacios comerciales. Se presentan brevemente las características del periodo actual y la centralidad del consumo. Luego, se profundiza sobre los espacios de consumo populares como son las ferias comerciales de indumentaria en Argentina para finalmente explicar sintéticamente el caso de la mega- feria "La Salada".

Espacios de consumo populares : Las ferias comerciales de indumentaria en Argentina

En el periodo actual, la expansión del consumo en el territorio se materializa en las ciudades evidenciándose el avance y la instalación de diferentes espacios de consumo. Por un lado, espacios de consumo de grandes capitales del circuito superior como son los shopping center, supermercados e hipermercados y por otro lado, espacios de consumo populares como las ferias comerciales de indumentaria y accesorios, denominadas muchas veces shopping populares, con características distintivas del circuito inferior de la economía urbana (Santos, 1979). En este sentido, se observa que cada vez más las variables distintivas del período como son la técnica, la información, la publicidad, las finanzas, el crédito, entre otras, se hacen presentes en este tipo de actividades.Proponemos en este artículo reflexionar sobre la importancia de estas variables haciendo énfasis en el consumo y en los diversos espacios comerciales. Se presentan brevemente las características del periodo actual y la centralidad del consumo. Luego, se profundiza sobre los espacios de consumo populares como son las ferias comerciales de indumentaria en Argentina para finalmente explicar sintéticamente el caso de la mega- feria "La Salada".