A Fully Bayesian Approach for Combining Multilevel Failure Information in Fault Tree Quantification and Corresponding Optimal Resource Allocation

This paper presents a fully Bayesian approach that simultaneously combines basic event and statistically independent higher event-level failure data in fault tree quantification. Such higher-level data could correspond to train, sub-system or system failure events. The full Bayesian approach also allows the highest-level data that are usually available for existing facilities to be automatically propagated to lower levels. A simple example illustrates the proposed approach. The optimal allocation of resources for collecting additional data from a choice of different level events is also presented. The optimization is achieved using a genetic algorithm.

On the postnatal development of the striate cortex (V1) in the tree shrew (Tupaia belangeri)

Histological serial sections, three-dimensional reconstructions and morphometry served to study the postnatal development of V1 in tree shrews. The main objectives were to evaluate the expansion of V1, the implications of its growth on the occipital cortex and, vice versa, the effects of the expanding neocortex on the topography of V1. The future V1 was identified on postnatal day 1 by its granular layer IV, covering the superior surface of the occipital cortices including the poles. A subdivision of layer IV, distinctive for the binocular part, was evident in the central region. V1 expanded continuously with age into all directions succeeded by the maturation of layering. The monocular part was recognized from day 15 onward, after the binocular part had reached its medial border. In reference to the retinotopic map of V1, regions emerged in a coherent temporo-spatial sequence delineating the retinal topography in a central to peripheral gradient beginning with the visual streak representation. The growth of V1 was greatest until tree shrews open their eyes, culminated during adolescence, and completed after a subsequent decrease in the young adult. Simultaneous expansion of the neocortex induced a shifting of V1. Translation and elongation of V1 entailed that the occipital cortex covered the superior colliculi along with a downward rotation of the poles. The enlargement of the occipital part of the hemispheres was in addition associated with the formation of a small occipital horn in the lateral ventricles, indicating an incipient 'true' occipital lobe harbouring mainly cortices involved in visual functions.

Seedling survival and growth of three ectomycorrhizal caesalpiniaceous tree species in a Central African rain forest

Tree recruitment is determined in part by the survivorship and growth of seedlings. Two seedling cohorts of the three most abundant caesalpiniaceous species forming groves at Korup, Cameroon, were followed from 1995/1997 to 2002, to investigate why Microberlinia bisulcata, the most abundant species, currently has very few recruits compared with Tetraberlinia korupensis and T. bifoliolata. Numbers of seedlings dying, and the heights and leaf numbers of survivors, were recorded on 30 occasions. Survivorship after 2.5 y was 30% for M. bisulcata and 59% for the similar Tetraberlinia spp. together. After 7 y the corresponding values were 4 and 21%. Growth of all species was slow for the first 4 y; but survivors of T. korupensis became 63% taller, as the other species stagnated, by 7 y. The poor recruitment of M. bisulcata was the result of its very low seedling survival. Within species, the tallest seedlings of M. bisulcata and T. bifoliolata, but medium-height ones of T. korupensis, survived longest. This was likely due to higher root allocation in T. korupensis. Seedling dynamics of M. bisulcata and T. korupensis over 7 y accorded well with relative abundances of adult trees; T. bifoliolata is predicted to recruit later.