The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Cultural leaders and the clash of civilizations

This article builds a micro founded model of the clash of cultures. The clash is defined as the parent's fear of a trait change by their child in an overlapping generations model with intergenerational transmission of cultural traits. The extent of the clash is manipulated by cultural leaders who benefit from the cultural education effort by parents. We identify three channels through which the leaders can affect the clash of cultures: (i) by providing beneficial cultural values, (ii) by claims of cultural superiority and (iii) by cultural alienation, i.e. by inducing cultural dislike towards their own group. We show that all three channels can be in the leader's interest but channels (ii) and (iii) reduce the utility of the leader's goup members. This hints to a strong conflict of interest within groups - between the population at large and the benefactors of radicalization. We further show how the use of alienation relates to the economic opportunities available to a group.

Vectors control importance on leishmaniasis transmission

We reviewed the control of transmission of leishmaniasis regarding chemotherapy, reservoirs elimination, vaccination and insect control through the use of chemical insecticides. We also discussed complementary measures like monitoring traps, impregnated bednets and curtains, repelents, pheromones, biological control, etc. A cost comparison of insecticide interventions through the use of products belonging to the four main chemical groups was also alone, comparing together conventional formulations versus a slow-release insecticide developed by the Núcleo de Pesquisas de Produtos Naturais, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. We finally did recommendations on the situation that would justify an insecticide intervention to control sandflies.

Early sporogonic development in local vectors of Plasmodium falciparum in rural Cameroon

In ongoing studies on experimental transmission of Plasmodium falciparum in the city of Yaounde gametocyte carriers are daily being identified among dispensary patients with malaria-like complaints. This species comprises 93 of all parasitemias and because of the selection criteria most patients have it as a recent infection. 17 of all P. falciparum-positives carry detectable gametocytes with little difference between youngsters and adults. Blood of adult carriers is taken and infection of Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes is attempted by membrane feeding; the establishment of infection is judged by the presence of oocysts.

Determination and control of schistosomiasis

The subject of this conference reflects the scientific community's interest in seeking to understand the complex causal web whose various social, economic, and biological components interact in the production and reproduction of schistosomiasis and its control in relation to community participation. From the onset, the author stresses the impossibility of dealing separately with community participation, as if social components were just one more "weapon" in the arsenal for schistosomiasis control. This study begins with a brief historical review of the 71 years of control activities with this endemic disease, stressing the enormous efforts and huge expenditures in this field vis-à-vis the limited results, despite the extraordinary technological development of specific, classical control inputs such as new treatment drugs and molluscicides. The article then discusses the various strategies used in control programs, emphasizing ideological consistencies and contradictions. Interactions at the macro and micro levels are discussed, as are the determinants and risk factors involved in producing the disease's endemicity. Unequal occupation of space leaves the segregated portion of the population exposed to extremely favorable conditions for transmission of the disease. This raises the issue of how to control an endemic disease which is so closely linked to the way of life imposed on the population. The study challenges the classical control model and suggests an alternative model now undergoing medium-term investigation in the States of Espirito Santo, and Pernambuco, Brazil. The author concludes that we do not need new strategies, but a new control model, contrary to the prevailing classical model in both concept and practice. From the conceptual point of view, the new model mentioned above is different from others in that schistosomiasis control is seen from a social perspective stressing the population's accumulated knowledge in addition to the building of shared knowledge. The model's praxis has the following characteristics: (1) it is integrated with and financed by research agencies and health services; (2) it operates at the local health services level; (3) use of molluscicides has been eliminated; (4) emphasis is given to individual medical treatment and improvement of sanitary conditions.

The snail hosts of schistosomiasis: some evolutionary and ecological perspectives in relation to control

Despite opportunities for radiation provided by spatio-temporal isolation, the basic morphological plan of pulmonate snails has remained conservative. In consequence of the resulting dearth of morphological characters and their plasticity, there is a case for using biochemical characters such as exogenous chemicals released by the snails (e.g. amino acids) and their chemoreception niche as taxonomic aids to classify snails of medical importance. As these same chemicals are used by snails to distinguish conspecifics they could also be used as "environmental antibodies" in controlled release formulations (CRF's) designed to remove target snails in a specific, cost-effective and ecologically acceptable manner. The snails, surface-living bacteria, algae and macrophytic plants are considered as co-evolved, interactive modular systems with strong mutualistic elements. Recently, anthropogenic perturbations such as deforestation, and damming of flowing waters, have benefited these modules whereas others such as river canalization, acid deposition, accumulation of pesticide residues and eutrophication have harmed them. Research is needed to elucidate the factors which limit the growth of snails in primitive habitats, uninfluenced by man, as well as in those subject to harmful anthropogenic factors. The understanding thus gained could be applied to develop cost-effective primary health care strategies to reduce or prevent transmission of schistosomiasis and other water related diseases.

Evaluation of the impact of a therapeutic drug monitoring program in a Swiss University Hospital

Background and objective: Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM) has been introduced early 1970 in our hospital (CHUV). It represents nowadays an important routine activity of the Division of Clinical Pharmacology and Toxicology (PCL), and its impact and utility for clinicians required assessment. This study thus evaluated the impact of TDM recommendations in terms of dosage regimen adaptation. Design: A prospective observational study was conducted over 5 weeks. The primary objective was to evaluate the application of our TDM recommendations and to identify potential factors associated to variations in their implementation. The secondary objective was to identify pre-analytical problems linked to the collection and processing of blood samples. Setting: Four representative clinical units at CHUV. Main outcome measure: Clinical data, drug related data (intake, collection and processing) and all information regarding the implementation of clinical recommendations were collected and analyzed by descriptive statistics. Results: A total of 241 blood measurement requests were collected, among which 105 triggered a recommendation. 37% of the recommendations delivered were applied, 25 % partially applied and 34% not applied. In 4% it was not applicable. The factors determinant for implementation were the clinical unit and the mode of transmission of the recommendation (written vs oral). No clear difference between types of drugs could be detected. Pre-analytical problems were not uncommon, mostly related to completion of request forms and delays in blood sampling (equilibration or steady-state not reached). We have identified 6% of inappropriate and unusable drug level measurements that could cause a substantial cost for the hospital. Conclusion: This survey highlighted a better implementation of TDM recommendations in clinical units where this routine is well integrated and understood by the medical staff. Our results emphasize the importance of communication with the nurse or the physician in charge, either to transmit clinical recommendations or to establish consensual therapeutic targets in specific conditions. Development of strong partnerships between clinical pharmacists or pharmacologists and clinical units would be beneficial to improve the impact of this clinical activity.

The use and mis-use of some ecological terms and concepts in epidemiology

The article discusses the current use and mis-use of ecological terms and concepts in epidemiological literature, and in special, in works dealing with zoonotic diseases. A selection of examples was taken from papers recently published on the transmission of Chagas' disease by Triatoma sordida. Proper definitions are listed, with the intent of helping non-ecologists to use those terms and concepts correctly.

Ecological interactions of visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Bahia, Brazil

The laboratory and field observations summarized in this paper on visceral leishmaniasis ecology in the State of Bahia, Brazil are based on the author's observations over the past 35 years in a number of state's foci, public health records and literature citations. The disease is endemic with epidemic outbreaks occurring every ten years and its geographical distribution is expanding rapidly in the last years. Leishmania chagasi is the main ethiologic agent of the visceral leishmaniasis but Le. amazonensis s. lato was the only leishmania isolated by other authors from some visceral leishmaniasis human cases in the state. Lutzomyia longipalpis (with one or two spots on tergites III and IV and two sized different populations) was epidemiologically incriminated as the main vector. It was found naturally infected with promastigotes, and it was infected with four species of leishmanias in the laboratory. Although the experimental transmission of Le. amazonensis by the bite of Lu. longipalpis to hamsters was performed, the author was not successful in transmitting Le. chagasi in the same way. The dog is the most important domestic source for infection of the vector, however it is not a primary reservoir. The opossum Didelphis albiventris was found naturally infected with Le. chagasi but its role as reservoir is unknown. Foxes and rodents were not found infected with leishmanias in Bahia.

Simian malaria at two sites in the Brazilian Amazon - II: Vertical distribution and frequency of anopheline species inside and outside the forest

An anopheline survey was carried out in two simian malaria areas in the Brazilian Amazon, Balbina and Samuel, to determine the potential vectors of Plasmodium brasilianum. The most abundant and/or acrodendrophilic anophelines in the forest and the most likely vector were Anopheles mediopunctatus, An. nuneztovari, An. oswaldoi, An. triannulatus and An. shannoni. An. darlingi and An. marajoara were captured essentially in anthropic habitats outside the forest and are unlikely to be involved in the transmission of P. brasilianum among monkeys within the forests and from monkeys to man in their surroundings in the Amazon.

The Changing Face of the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis due to Molecular Strain Typing: A Review

About one third of the world population is infected with tubercle bacilli, causing eight million new cases of tuberculosis (TB) and three million deaths each year. After years of lack of interest in the disease, World Health Organization recently declared TB a global emergency and it is clear that there is need for more efficient national TB programs and newly defined research priorities. A more complete epidemiology of tuberculosis will lead to a better identification of index cases and to a more efficient treatment of the disease. Recently, new molecular tools became available for the identification of strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis), allowing a better recognition of transmission routes of defined strains. Both a standardized restriction-fragment-length-polymorphism-based methodology for epidemiological studies on a large scale and deoxyribonucleic acids (DNA) amplification-based methods that allow rapid detection of outbreaks with multidrug-resistant (MDR) strains, often characterized by high mortality rates, have been developed. This review comments on the existing methods of DNA-based recognition of M. tuberculosis strains and their peculiarities. It also summarizes literature data on the application of molecular fingerprinting for detection of outbreaks of M. tuberculosis, for identification of index cases, for study of interaction between TB and infection with the human immunodeficiency virus, for analysis of the behavior of MDR strains, for a better understanding of risk factors for transmission of TB within communities and for population-based studies of TB transmission within and between countries

Chagas Disease in Ecuador: Evidence for Disease Transmission in an Indigenous Population in the Amazon Region

Two well-defined synthetic peptides TcD and PEP2 were used in a sero-epidemiological study for the detection of Trypanosoma cruzi infections in an indigenous group in the Amazon region of Ecuador. Of the 18 communities studied along the Río Napo, province of Napo, 15 (83.3%) were found to be positive for T. cruzi infection. Of the 1,011 individuals examined 61 (6.03%) resulted positive. A prevalence of infection of 4.8% was found in children aged 1-5 years. The prevalence of infection increased with age, with adults 50 years or older showing a maximum prevalence of 18.8%. Autochthonous transmission of T. cruzi is present among this isolated indigenous population

Evaluation of Chemical and Physical-morphological Factors as Potential Determinants of Biomphalaria pfeifferi (Krauss, 1848) Distribution

This study was carried out in five sites along a small perennial river system in south-central Tanzania, which had been identified as the focus for transmission of intestinal schistosomiasis in the area. Malacological surveys preceding the study showed a focal distribution of Biomphalaria pfeifferi, intermediate host snail of Schistosoma mansoni, the snails being present in three sites but absent from the other two sites. The objective of this study was to evaluate to what extent chemical and/or physical-morphological factors determine the distribution of B. pfeifferi between these five sites. It was found that none of the chemical constituents in the waters examined were outside the tolerance range of B. pfeifferi snails. Moreover, the composition of water from B. pfeifferi-free sites was not different from that in those sites where snails occurred. Furthermore, none of the physical-morphological constituents seemed likely to be a determinant for the absence of B. pfeifferi. In view of these findings, and those of previous studies, it is concluded that the focal distribution of B. pfeifferi cannot be associated with a single environmental factor and is rather the result of more complex interactions of habitat factors

The WHO Collaborating Centre for Research and Control of Schistosomiasis at Niamey, Niger

The Centre de Recherche sur les Méningites et les Schistosomes (CERMES) is a research institute depending on the Organisation de Coordination et de Coopération pour la lutte contre les Grandes Endémies - a West African Organization for Public Health - devoted to the studies on schistosomiasis and meningitis. The staff includes 32 persons with 11 scientists and one financial officer. The activities of the CERMES involving schistosomiasis concern three research units: (a) ecology of human and animal schistosomiasis transmission; the CERMES defined the different patterns of schistosomiasis transmission in Niger (involving African dry savana); in this field, we have shown, (i) the existence of important variability in conditions of transmission of S. haematobium and, (ii) natural hybridization between parasitic species of the ruminants (S. bovis and S. curassoni) and genetic interaction between human and animal parasites; (b) definition of morbidity indicators usable for rapid assessment methods, for appraisal of the severity of the disease and for the evaluation of the efficiency of control methods; we have established the correlation between ultrasonographic data and some cheap and simple field indicators; (c) immune response and protective immunity induced by recombinant glutathion S-transferase (Sm28, Sb28 and Sh28) in homologous and heterologous animal models including goats, sheep and non human primates (Erythrocebus patas). In Niger, we participate in all control programs against schistosomiasis to define control strategies, to supervise operations and to participate in their evaluation with external experts. International collaborations constitute a frame including four laboratories in Africa and six laboratories in developed countries (Europe and USA)

Potential Vectors of Dirofilaria immitis (Leidy, 1856) in Itacoatiara, Oceanic Region of Niterói Municipality, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dirofilaria immitis is a widespread mosquito-borne parasite that causes dirofilariasis, a commonly diagnosed disease of dogs that is rarely reported in cats and humans. A mosquito survey was conducted in Itacoatiara in the State of Rio de Janeiro, from March 1995 to February 1996, using canine, feline and human baits. A total of 3,667 mosquitoes were dissected for D. immitis larvae, representing 19 species and 10 genera. From those, Ae. scapularis, Ae taeniorhynchus, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. declarator, Cx. saltanensis and Wy. bourrouli were found infected with D. immitis parasites, and among those, only the first three harbored infective larvae. The majority of larvae were found in the Malpighian tubules (889/936), and larval melanization was observed in the two Aedes species. In descending order, the best vectors were Ae. scapularis, Ae. taeniorhynchus, and Cx. quinquefasciatus which alternate seasonally in importance. Cx. quinquefasciatus is suggested to be a vector to cats. The potential transmission of D. immitis parasites by these three vectors to man is discussed.