中国大陆及邻区地震活动背景、环境触发与地震预测研究

This dissertation that includes most of the P. PH.D research work during 2001~2002 covers the large-scale distribution of continental earthquakes in mainland China, the mechanism and statistic features of grouped strong earthquakes related to the tidal triggering, some results in earthquake prediction with correlativity analysis methods, and the flushes from the two strong continental earthquakes in South Asia in 2001. Mainland China is the only continental sub-plate that is compressed by collision boundaries at its two sides, within which earthquakes are dispersive and distributed as seismic belts with different widths. The control capability of the continental block boundaries on the strong earthquakes and seismic hazards is calculated and analyzed in this dissertation. By mapping the distribution of the 31282 ML:3s2,0 earthquakes, I found that the depth of continental earthquakes depend on the tectonic zonings. The events on the boundaries of relatively integrated blocks are deep and those on the new-developed ruptures are shallow. The average depth of earthquakes in the West of China is about 5km deeper than that in the east. The western and southwestern brim of Tarim Basin generated the deepest earthquakes in mainland China. The statistic results from correlation between the grouped M7 earthquakes and the tidal stress show that the strong events were modulated by tidal stress in active periods. Taking Taiwan area as an example, the dependence of moderate events on the moon phase angles (￡>) is analyzed, which shows that the number of the earthquakes in Taiwan when D is 50° ,50° +90° and 50° +180° is more than 2 times of standard deviation over the average frequency at each degree, corresponding to the 4th, 12th and 19th solar day after the new moon. The probability of earthquake attack to the densely populated Taiwan island on the 4th solar day is about 4 times of that on other solar days. On the practice of earthquake prediction, I calculated and analyzed the temporal correlation of the earthquakes in Xinjinag area, Qinghai-Tibet area, west Yunnan area, North China area and those in their adjacent areas, and predicted at the end of 2000 that it would be a special time interval from 2001 to 2003, within which moderate to strong earthquakes would be more active in the west of China. What happened in 2001 partly validated the prediction. Within 10 months, there were 2 great continental earthquakes in south Asia, i.e., the M7.8 event in India on Jan 26 and M8.1 event in China on Nov. 14, 2001, which are the largest earthquake in the past 50 years both for India and China. No records for two great earthquakes in Asia within so short time interval. We should speculate the following aspects from the two incidences: The influence of the fallacious deployment of seismic stations on the fine location and focal mechanism determination of strong earthquakes must be affronted. It is very important to introduce comparative seismology research to seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction research. The improvement or changes in real-time prediction of strong earthquakes with precursors is urged. Methods need to be refreshed to protect environment and historical relics in earthquake-prone areas.

下扬子北缘前陆盆地形成演化与油气赋存条件

The foreland basin on the northern margin of the lower reach of the Yangtze river (the lower Yangtze foreland basin) is tectonically situated in the basin-mountain transitional area along the southeastern flank of the Dabie mountains. The early formation and development of the basin is closely related to the open-up of the Mian-Lue paleo-oceanic basin on the southern margin of the Central Orogenic System represented by Qinling-Dabei orogenic belt, while the tectonic evolution of the middle-late stage of the basin is mainly related to development of the Mian-Lue tectonic zone that occurred on the basis of the previous Mian-Lue paleo-suture. The foreland basin of the northern rim of the lower reach of the Yangtze river was formed during the middle-Triassic collision between the Yangtze and North China plates and experienced an evolution of occuirence-development-extinction characterized by marine facies to continental facies and continental margin to intracontinent in terms of tectonic setting.The foreland basin (T2-J2) was developed on the basis of the passive continental marginal basin on the south side of the Mian-Lue paleo-ocean and superimposed by late Jurassic-Tertiary fault basin. The tectonic setting underwent a multiple transformation of rifting-collisional clososing-tensional faulting and depression, which resulted in changes of the property for the basin and the final formation of the superposed compose basin in a fashion of 3-story-building. According to the tectonic position and evolution stages of plate collision happening on the southeastern margin of the Dabie mountains, and tectono-tratigraphic features shown by the foreland basin in its main formational period, the evolution of the foreland basin can be divided into four stages: 1) pre-orogenic passive margin (P2-Ti). As the Mian-Lue ocean commenced subduction in the late-Permian, the approaching of the Yangtze and North China plates to each other led to long-periodical and large-scale marine regression in early Triassic which was 22 Ma earlier than the global one and generated I-type mixed strata of the clastic rocks and carbonate, and I-type carbonate platform. These represent the passive stratigraphy formed before formation of the foreland basin. 2) Foreland basin on continental margin during main orogenic episode (T2.3). The stage includes the sub-stage of marine foreland basin (T2X remain basin), which formed I-type stratigrphy of carbonate tidal flat-lagoon, the sub-stage of marine-continental transition-molasse showing II-type stratigraphy of marine-continental facies lake - continental facies lake. 3) Intracontinental foreland basin during intracontinental orogeny (Ji-2)- It is characterized by continental facies coal-bearing molasses. 4) Tensional fault and depression during post-orogeny (J3-E). It formed tectono-stratigraphy post formation of the foreland basin, marking the end of the foreland evolution. Fold-thrust deformation of the lower Yangtze foreland basin mainly happened in late middle-Jurassic, forming ramp structures along the Yangtze river that display thrusting, with deformation strength weakening toward the river from both the Dabie mountains and the Jiangnan rise. This exhibits as three zones in a pattern of thick-skinned structure involved the basement of the orogenic belt to decollement thin-skinned structure of fold-thrust from north to south: thrust zone of foreland basin on northern rim of the lower reach of the Yangtze river, foreland basin zone and Jiannan compose uplift zone. Due to the superposed tensional deformation on the earlier compressional deformation, the structural geometric stratification has occurred vertically: the upper part exhibits late tensional deformation, the middle portion is characterized by ramp fault -fold deformation on the base of the Silurian decollement and weak deformation in the lower portion consisting of Silurian and Neo-Proterozoic separated by the two decollements. These portions constitutes a three-layered structural assemblage in a 3-D geometric model.From the succession of the lower reach of the Yangtze river and combined with characteristics of hydrocarbon-bearing rocks and oil-gas system, it can be seen that the succession of the continental facies foreland basin overlies the marine facies stratigraphy on the passive continental margin, which formed upper continental facies and lower marine facies hydrocarbon-bearing rock system and oil-gas forming system possessing the basic conditions for oil-gas occurrence. Among the conditions, the key for oil-gas accumulation is development and preservation of the marine hydrocarbon-bearing rocks underlying the foreland basin. The synthetic study that in the lower Yangtze foreland basin (including the Wangjiang-Qianshan basin), the generation-reservoir-cover association with the Permian marine facies hydrocarbon-bearing rocks as the critical portion can be a prospective oil-gas accumulation.Therefore, it should aim at the upper Paleozoic marine hydrocarbon-bearing rock system and oil-gas forming system in oil-gas evaluation and exploration. Also, fining excellent reservoir phase and well-preserved oil-gas accumulation units is extremely important for a breakthrough in oil-gas exploration.

Volume-Time Curve: An Alternative for Endotracheal Tube Cuff Management

BACKGROUND: Despite numerous studies on endotracheal tube cuff pressure (CP) management, the literature has yet to establish a technique capable of adequately tilling the cuff with an appropriate volume of air while generating low CP in a less subjective way. the purpose of this prospective study was to evaluate and compare the CP levels and air volume required to fill the endotracheal tubes cuff using 2 different techniques (volume-time curve versus minimal occlusive volume) in the immediate postoperative period after coronary artery bypass grafting. METHODS: A total of 267 subjects were analyzed. After the surgery, the lungs were ventilated using pressure controlled continuous mandatory ventilation, and the same ventilatory parameters were adjusted. Upon arrival in the ICU, the cuff was completely deflated and re-inflated, and at this point the volume of air to fill the cuff was adjusted using one of 2 randomly selected techniques: volume-time curve and minimal occlusive volume. We measured the volume of air injected into the cuff, the CP, and the expired tidal volume of the mechanical ventilation after the application of each technique. RESULTS: the volume-time curve technique demonstrated a significantly lower CP and a lower volume of air injected into the cuff, compared to the minimal occlusive volume technique (P < .001). No significant difference was observed in the expired tidal volume between the 2 techniques (P = .052). However, when the subjects were submitted to the minimal occlusive volume technique, 17% (n = 47) experienced air leakage as observed by the volume-time graph. CONCLUSIONS: the volume-time curve technique was associated with a lower CP and a lower volume of air injected into the cuff, when compared to the minimal occlusive volume technique in the immediate postoperative period after coronary artery bypass grafting. Therefore, the volume-time curve may be a more reliable alternative for endotracheal tube cuff management.

A demonstration of wireless sensing for long-term monitoring of water quality

At a time when technological advances are providing new sensor capabilities, novel network capabilities, long-range communications technologies and data interpreting and delivery formats via the World Wide Web, we never before had such opportunities to sense and analyse the environment around us. However, the challenges exist. While measurement and detection of environmental pollutants can be successful under laboratory-controlled conditions, continuous in-situ monitoring remains one of the most challenging aspects of environmental sensing. This paper describes the development and test of a multi-sensor heterogeneous real-time water monitoring system. A multi-sensor system was deployed in the River Lee, County Cork, Ireland to monitor water quality parameters such as pH, temperature, conductivity, turbidity and dissolved oxygen. The R. Lee comprises of a tidal water system that provides an interesting test site to monitor. The multi-sensor system set-up is described and results of the sensor deployment and the various challenges are discussed.

Grid integration of wave energy & generic modelling of ocean devices for power system studies

The work presented in this thesis covers four major topics of research related to the grid integration of wave energy. More specifically, the grid impact of a wave farm on the power quality of its local network is investigated. Two estimation methods were developed regarding the flicker level Pst generated by a wave farm in relation to its rated power as well as in relation to the impedance angle ψk of the node in the grid to which it is connected. The electrical design of a typical wave farm design is also studied in terms of minimum rating for three types of costly pieces of equipment, namely the VAr compensator, the submarine cables and the overhead line. The power losses dissipated within the farm's electrical network are also evaluated. The feasibility of transforming a test site into a commercial site of greater rated power is investigated from the perspective of power quality and of cables and overhead line thermal loading. Finally, the generic modelling of ocean devices, referring here to both wave and tidal current devices, is investigated.

Feasibility of combined wind-wave energy platforms

The European Union has set out an ambitious 20% target for renewable energy use by 2020. It is expected that this will be met mainly by wind energy. Looking towards 2050, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of 80-95% are to be sought. Given the issues securing this target in the transport and agriculture sectors, it may only be possible to achieve this target if the power sector is carbon neutral well in advance of 2050. This has permitted the vast expansion of offshore renewables, wind, wave and tidal energy. Offshore wind has undergone rapid development in recent years however faces significant challenges up to 2020 to ensure commercial viability without the need for government subsidies. Wave energy is still in the very early stages of development so as yet there has been no commercial roll out. As both of these technologies are to face similar challenges in ensuring they are a viable alternative power generation method to fossil fuels, capitalising on the synergies is potentially a significant cost saving initiative. The advent of hybrid solutions in a variety of configurations is the subject of this thesis. A singular wind-wave energy platform embodies all the attributes of a hybrid system, including sharing space, transmission infrastructure, O&M activities and a platform/foundation. This configuration is the subject of this thesis, and it is found that an OWC Array platform with multi-MegaWatt wind turbines is a technically feasible, and potentially an economically feasible solution in the long term. Methods of design and analysis adopted in this thesis include numerical and physical modelling of power performance, structural analysis, fabrication cost modelling, simplified project economic modelling and time domain reliability modelling of a 210MW hybrid farm. The application of these design and analysis methods has resulted in a hybrid solution capable of producing energy at a cost between €0.22/kWh and €0.31/kWh depending on the source of funding for the project. Further optimisation through detailed design is expected to lower this further. This thesis develops new and existing methods of design and analysis of wind and wave energy devices. This streamlines the process of early stage development, while adhering to the widely adopted Concept Development Protocol, to develop a technically and economically feasible, combined wind-wave energy hybrid solution.

Environmental and biological characteristics of lagoons on the southwest coast of Ireland

Coastal lagoons are defined as shallow coastal water bodies partially separated from the adjacent sea by a restrictive barrier. Coastal lagoons are protected under Annex I of the European Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC). Lagoons are also considered to be “transitional water bodies” and are therefore included in the “register of protected areas” under the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC). Consequently, EU member states are required to establish monitoring plans and to regularly report on lagoon condition and conservation status. Irish lagoons are considered relatively rare and unusual because of their North Atlantic, macrotidal location on high energy coastlines and have received little attention. This work aimed to assess the physicochemical and ecological status of three lagoons, Cuskinny, Farranamanagh and Toormore, on the southwest coast of Ireland. Baseline salinity, nutrient and biological conditions were determined in order to provide reference conditions to detect perturbations, and to inform future maintenance of ecosystem health. Accumulation of organic matter is an increasing pressure in coastal lagoon habitats worldwide, often compounding existing eutrophication problems. This research also aimed to investigate the in situ decomposition process in a lagoon habitat together with exploring the associated invertebrate assemblages. Re-classification of the lagoons, under the guidelines of the Venice system for the classifications of marine waters according to salinity, was completed by taking spatial and temporal changes in salinity regimes into consideration. Based on the results of this study, Cuskinny, Farranamanagh and Toormore lagoons are now classified as mesohaline (5 ppt – 18 ppt), oligohaline (0.5 ppt – 5 ppt) and polyhaline (18 ppt – 30 ppt), respectively. Varying vertical, longitudinal and transverse salinity patterns were observed in the three lagoons. Strong correlations between salinity and cumulative rainfall highlighted the important role of precipitation in controlling the lagoon environment. Maximum effect of precipitation on the salinity of the lagoon was observed between four and fourteen days later depending on catchment area geology, indicating the uniqueness of each lagoon system. Seasonal nutrient patterns were evident in the lagoons. Nutrient concentrations were found to be reflective of the catchment area and the magnitude of the freshwater inflow. Assessment based on the Redfield molar ratio indicated a trend towards phosphorus, rather than nitrogen, limitation in Irish lagoons. Investigation of the decomposition process in Cuskinny Lagoon revealed that greatest biomass loss occurred in the winter season. Lowest biomass loss occurred in spring, possibly due to the high density of invertebrates feeding on the thick microbial layer rather than the decomposing litter. It has been reported that the decomposition of plant biomass is highest in the preferential distribution area of the plant species; however, no similar trend was observed in this study with the most active zones of decomposition varying spatially throughout the seasons. Macroinvertebrate analysis revealed low species diversity but high abundance, indicating the dominance of a small number of species. Invertebrate assemblages within the lagoon varied significantly from communities in the adjacent freshwater or marine environments. Although carried out in coastal lagoons on the southwest coast of Ireland, it is envisaged that the overall findings of this study have relevance throughout the entire island of Ireland and possibly to many North Atlantic coastal lagoon ecosystems elsewhere.

Resonant and Secular Orbital Interations

In stable solar systems, planets remain in nearly elliptical orbits around their stars. Over longer timescales, however, their orbital shapes and sizes change due to mutual gravitational perturbations. Orbits of satellites around a planet vary for the same reason. Because of their interactions, the orbits of planets and satellites today are different from what they were earlier. In order to determine their original orbits, which are critical constraints on formation theories, it is crucial to understand how orbits evolve over the age of the Solar System. Depending on their timescale, we classify orbital interactions as either short-term (orbital resonances) or long-term (secular evolution). My work involves examples of both interaction types. Resonant history of the small Neptunian satellites In satellite systems, tidal migration brings satellite orbits in and out of resonances. During a resonance passage, satellite orbits change dramatically in a very short period of time. We investigate the resonant history of the six small Neptunian moons. In this unique system, the exotic orbit of the large captured Triton (with a circular, retrograde, and highly tilted orbit) influences the resonances among the small satellites very strongly. We derive an analytical framework which can be applied to Neptune's satellites and to similar systems. Our numerical simulations explain the current orbital tilts of the small satellites as well as constrain key physical parameters of both Neptune and its moons. Secular orbital interactions during eccentricity damping Long-term periodic changes of orbital shape and orientation occur when two or more planets orbit the same star. The variations of orbital elements are superpositions of the same number of fundamental modes as the number of planets in the system. We investigate how this effect interacts with other perturbations imposed by external disturbances, such as the tides and relativistic effects. Through analytical studies of a system consisting of two planets, we find that an external perturbation exerted on one planet affects the other indirectly. We formulate a general theory for how both orbits evolve in response to an arbitrary externally-imposed slow change in eccentricity.

Biodeposition and Biogeochemical Processes in Shallow, Mesohaline Sediments of Chesapeake Bay

Stocks of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, have been declining in Chesapeake Bay since the late 19th century, and current strategies involve restoring culture of Crassostrea virginica on-bottom and in devices suspended within the water column. Sub-tidal suspension culture of Crassostrea virginica in Chesapeake Bay occurs mostly in sheltered inlets and tidal creeks and, thereby, has the potential to influence shallow water biogeochemical processes. To assess the influence of Crassostrea virginica biodeposits and benthic microalgae on sediment nitrogen and phosphorus exchange, field studies with Crassostrea virginica held in aquaculture floats and laboratory experiments were conducted. Enhanced organic nitrogen deposition from Crassostrea virginica biodeposits led to gradual increases in surface sediment nitrogen and pore water ammonium concentrations; however, modifications to pore water concentrations were not always expressed at the sediment-water interface. Benthic microalgae often modulated the influence of biodeposits on sediment nitrogen exchange but, as observed in laboratory experiments, the supply of nitrogen from Crassostrea virginica biodeposits may exceed their biological demand. Organic carbon from biodeposits had varying influences on aerobic respiration but consistently stimulated anaerobic metabolism. Shifts in net phosphorus exchange were driven by this anaerobic remineralization and concentrations of iron and manganese oxy(hydr)oxides, with transitions in fluxes coinciding with changes in benthic photosynthesis and oxidation of surface sediments. Manganese and iron oxy(hydr)oxides from biodeposits supported incorporation of added phosphorus and prevented exchange at the sediment-water interface in the absence of iron-sulfide mineral formation. Differences in the response of shallow water sediments to Crassostrea virginica biodeposits were due to the quality and quantity of biodeposits supplied, as well as the spatial and temporal variability within these sediments. Initial conditions and corresponding reference sediments illustrated the potential for sediment biogeochemistry and nutrient exchange from tidal creek sediments to vary spatially and temporally on relatively small scales. Factors influencing variability within tidal creek sediments were related to shifts in riverine freshwater inputs, macroalgal blooms, nutrient concentrations in overlying waters, and bioirrigation from the clam, Macoma balthica.

An evaluation of remifentanil-sevoflurane response surface models in patients emerging from anesthesia: model improvement using effect-site sevoflurane concentrations.

INTRODUCTION: We previously reported models that characterized the synergistic interaction between remifentanil and sevoflurane in blunting responses to verbal and painful stimuli. This preliminary study evaluated the ability of these models to predict a return of responsiveness during emergence from anesthesia and a response to tibial pressure when patients required analgesics in the recovery room. We hypothesized that model predictions would be consistent with observed responses. We also hypothesized that under non-steady-state conditions, accounting for the lag time between sevoflurane effect-site concentration (Ce) and end-tidal (ET) concentration would improve predictions. METHODS: Twenty patients received a sevoflurane, remifentanil, and fentanyl anesthetic. Two model predictions of responsiveness were recorded at emergence: an ET-based and a Ce-based prediction. Similarly, 2 predictions of a response to noxious stimuli were recorded when patients first required analgesics in the recovery room. Model predictions were compared with observations with graphical and temporal analyses. RESULTS: While patients were anesthetized, model predictions indicated a high likelihood that patients would be unresponsive (> or = 99%). However, after termination of the anesthetic, models exhibited a wide range of predictions at emergence (1%-97%). Although wide, the Ce-based predictions of responsiveness were better distributed over a percentage ranking of observations than the ET-based predictions. For the ET-based model, 45% of the patients awoke within 2 min of the 50% model predicted probability of unresponsiveness and 65% awoke within 4 min. For the Ce-based model, 45% of the patients awoke within 1 min of the 50% model predicted probability of unresponsiveness and 85% awoke within 3.2 min. Predictions of a response to a painful stimulus in the recovery room were similar for the Ce- and ET-based models. DISCUSSION: Results confirmed, in part, our study hypothesis; accounting for the lag time between Ce and ET sevoflurane concentrations improved model predictions of responsiveness but had no effect on predicting a response to a noxious stimulus in the recovery room. These models may be useful in predicting events of clinical interest but large-scale evaluations with numerous patients are needed to better characterize model performance.

Oral agreements: estoppel, constructive trusts and restitution

Analyses the House of Lords judgment in Cobbe v Yeoman's Row Management Ltd in relation to claims by the prospective purchaser under an oral agreement for sale of a block of flats based on proprietary estoppel, a constructive trust and common law restitution brought against the owner of the property who sought to resile from the agreement after the purchaser had, at considerable expense, obtained planning permission to redevelop the property in reliance on assurances given by the owner that if permission was granted the sale would be honoured.

Characterisation of European Marine Sites: Essex Estuaries European Marine Site Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 17

This report provides an overview of water and sediment quality within the Essex Estuaries European Marine Site (EMS) and examines evidence for their influence on biological condition. Site characterisation has been accomplished by review of published literature and unpublished reports, together with interrogation of summary data sets for tidal waters provided by EA.

Relating plankton assemblages to environmental variables using instruments towed by ships-of-opportunity

Undulating Oceanographic Recorders (UORs) and Continuous Plankton Recorders (CPRs) equipped with a suite of sensors were towed by merchant vessels in the North Sea between 1988 and 1991, recording a range of environmental variables. These were used to interpret the results of analyses of the plankton taken on CPR tows off the northeast coast of the UK in 1989 and in the Skagerrak and Kattegat in July 1988 and through 1989. Correlations were found between the biota and the environmental variables. The tidal front off the northeast coast of the UK and the front between the low salinity water in the Kattegat and the higher salinity water in the Skagerrak were dominant factors correlating with the distribution of the plankton assemblages. Discontinuities, defining the positions of the fronts, in the values of physical variables (temperature and, where measured, salinity and turbidity) were closely identified with geographical divisions between plankton assemblages. Measures of irradiance were found to be important on several occasions, presumably due to diel migrations of the zooplankton.

Biological controls on resuspension and the relationship between particle size and the Kolmogorov length scale in a shallow coastal sea

Measurements of suspended particle matter (SPM) and turbulence have been obtained over five tidal surveys during spring and summer 2010 at station L4 (5025 degrees N 04.22 degrees W, depth 50 m), in the Western English Channel. The relationship between turbulence intensity and bed stress is explored, with an in-line holographic imaging system evaluating the extent to which material is resuspended. Image analysis allows for the identification of SPM above a size threshold of 200 pm, capturing particle variability across tidal cycles and the two seasons. Dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy, which exceeds 10(-5) W kg(-1), yields maximum values of bed stress of between 0.17 and 0.20 N m(-2), frequently resulting in the resuspension of material from the bed. Resuspension is shown to promote aggregation of SPM into flocs, where the size of such particles is theoretically determined by the Kolmogorov microscale, l(k). During the spring surveys, flocs of a size larger than lk were observed, though this was not repeated during summer. It is proposed that the presence of gelatinous, biological material in spring allows flocculated particles to exceed l(k). This suggests that under specific circumstances, the limiting factor on the growth of flocculated SPM is not only turbulence, as previously thought, but the presence or absence of certain types of biological particle.

Determination Of Fine-Scale Vertical-Distribution Of Microbes And Meiofauna In An Intertidal Sediment

A simple sampling device is described which produces thin (1 mm) sections of sediment cores. The sampler has been tested on fine sand of an intertidal sandflat and used to study the vertical distribution, over part of a tidal cycle in August, 1981, of migrating algae in the surface 20 mm of sand. Two species of Diplonies and one of Navicula showed marked changes in vertical distribution as the sandflat was flooded, but the distribution of bacteria in the sime samples did not show any change with tidal state. Spatial separation of different species of harpacticoid oppepods within the surface 20 mm of sand has also been demonstrated using this sampler, and the results suggest that different species may occupy particular fine-scale spatial niches within the sand column. The depth separation of nematode species was less well defined, except for two species with apparently the same feeding mode which were isolated from one another vertically.