Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis:a case study of Indian oil refinery

This study proposes an integrated analytical framework for effective management of project risks using combined multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis. First, a conceptual risk management model was developed through thorough literature review. The model was then applied through action research on a petroleum oil refinery construction project in the Central part of India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. Oil refinery construction projects are risky because of technical complexity, resource unavailability, involvement of many stakeholders and strict environmental requirements. Although project risk management has been researched extensively, practical and easily adoptable framework is missing. In the proposed framework, risks are identified using cause and effect diagram, analysed using the analytic hierarchy process and responses are developed using the risk map. Additionally, decision tree analysis allows modelling various options for risk response development and optimises selection of risk mitigating strategy. The proposed risk management framework could be easily adopted and applied in any project and integrated with other project management knowledge areas.

Productivity change using growth accounting and frontier-based approaches:evidence from a Monte Carlo analysis

This study presents some quantitative evidence from a number of simulation experiments on the accuracy of the productivitygrowth estimates derived from growthaccounting (GA) and frontier-based methods (namely data envelopment analysis-, corrected ordinary least squares-, and stochastic frontier analysis-based malmquist indices) under various conditions. These include the presence of technical inefficiency, measurement error, misspecification of the production function (for the GA and parametric approaches) and increased input and price volatility from one period to the next. The study finds that the frontier-based methods usually outperform GA, but the overall performance varies by experiment. Parametric approaches generally perform best when there is no functional form misspecification, but their accuracy greatly diminishes otherwise. The results also show that the deterministic approaches perform adequately even under conditions of (modest) measurement error and when measurement error becomes larger, the accuracy of all approaches (including stochastic approaches) deteriorates rapidly, to the point that their estimates could be considered unreliable for policy purposes.

Improving envelopment in Data Envelopment Analysis under variable returns to scale

In a Data Envelopment Analysis model, some of the weights used to compute the efficiency of a unit can have zero or negligible value despite of the importance of the corresponding input or output. This paper offers an approach to preventing inputs and outputs from being ignored in the DEA assessment under the multiple input and output VRS environment, building on an approach introduced in Allen and Thanassoulis (2004) for single input multiple output CRS cases. The proposed method is based on the idea of introducing unobserved DMUs created by adjusting input and output levels of certain observed relatively efficient DMUs, in a manner which reflects a combination of technical information and the decision maker's value judgements. In contrast to many alternative techniques used to constrain weights and/or improve envelopment in DEA, this approach allows one to impose local information on production trade-offs, which are in line with the general VRS technology. The suggested procedure is illustrated using real data. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring productive efficiency using Nerlovian profit efficiency indicator and metafrontier analysis

The aim of this paper is to illustrate the measurement of productive efficiency using Nerlovian indicator and metafrontier with data envelopment analysis techniques. Further, we illustrate how profit efficiency of firms operating in different regions can be aggregated into one overarching frontier. Sugarcane production in three regions in Kenya has been used to illustrate these concepts. Results show that the sources of inefficiency in all regions are both technical and allocative, but allocative efficiency contributes more to the overall Nerlovian (in)efficiency indicator. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Efficiency analysis of Islamic banks:a case of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)

Although considerable effort has been invested in the measurement of banking efficiency using Data Envelopment Analysis, hardly any empirical research has focused on comparison of banks in Gulf States Countries This paper employs data on Gulf States banking sector for the period 2000-2002 to develop efficiency scores and rankings for both Islamic and conventional banks. We then investigate the productivity change using Malmquist Index and decompose the productivity into technical change and efficiency change. Further, hypothesis testing and statistical precision in the context of nonparametric efficiency and productivity measurement have been used. Specially, cross-country analysis of efficiency and comparisons of efficiencies between Islamic banks and conventional banks have been investigated using Mann-Whitney test.

Planning for project control through risk analysis:a case of petroleum pipeline laying

Projects that are exposed to uncertain environments can be effectively controlled with the application of risk analysis during the planning stage. The Analytic Hierarchy Process, a multiattribute decision-making technique, can be used to analyse and assess project risks which are objective or subjective in nature. Among other advantages, the process logically integrates the various elements in the planning process. The results from risk analysis and activity analysis are then used to develop a logical contingency allowance for the project through the application of probability theory. The contingency allowance is created in two parts: (a) a technical contingency, and (b) a management contingency. This provides a basis for decision making in a changing project environment. Effective control of the project is made possible by the limitation of the changes within the monetary contingency allowance for the work package concerned, and the utilization of the contingency through proper appropriation. The whole methodology is applied to a pipeline-laying project in India, and its effectiveness in project control is demonstrated.

Modeling and analysis of high performance L-band erbium-doped fiber amplifier (EDFA)

The performances of L-band EDFA are modeled and analyzed, based on C-band EDFA, through variation of pump power, ion concentration and fiber length. The fiber length promises higher performance than others. © 2005 Optical Society of America.

A socio-technical perspective on ERP implementation

This paper provides an analysis of ERP implementation in the context of social-technical information systems management theory. The paper provides a discussion of how ERP systems can contribute to the development of a new generation of business management that combines both formal and informal mechanisms. This could be achieved through the use of informal communities of an enterprise that could both collaborate efficiently with a common ERP platform with a certain level of standardization but also have the flexibility in order to provide an agile reaction to internal and external events. © 2012 IADIS.

Self-powered desalination of geothermal saline groundwater:technical feasibility

This theoretical study shows the technical feasibility of self-powered geothermal desalination of groundwater sources at <100 °C. A general method and framework are developed and then applied to specific case studies. First, the analysis considers an ideal limit to performance based on exergy analysis using generalised idealised assumptions. This thermodynamic limit applies to any type of process technology. Then, the analysis focuses specifically on the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) driving Reverse Osmosis (RO), as these are among the most mature and efficient applicable technologies. Important dimensionless parameters are calculated for the ideal case of the self-powered arrangement and semi-ideal case where only essential losses dependent on the RO system configuration are considered. These parameters are used to compare the performance of desalination systems using ORC-RO under ideal, semi-ideal and real assumptions for four case studies relating to geothermal sources located in India, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and Turkey. The overall system recovery ratio (the key performance measure for the self-powered process) depends strongly on the geothermal source temperature. It can be as high as 91.5% for a hot spring emerging at 96 °C with a salinity of 1830 mg/kg.

Optimal design of the renewable energy map of Greece using weighted goal-programming and data envelopment analysis

Renewable energy forms have been widely used in the past decades highlighting a "green" shift in energy production. An actual reason behind this turn to renewable energy production is EU directives which set the Union's targets for energy production from renewable sources, greenhouse gas emissions and increase in energy efficiency. All member countries are obligated to apply harmonized legislation and practices and restructure their energy production networks in order to meet EU targets. Towards the fulfillment of 20-20-20 EU targets, in Greece a specific strategy which promotes the construction of large scale Renewable Energy Source plants is promoted. In this paper, we present an optimal design of the Greek renewable energy production network applying a 0-1 Weighted Goal Programming model, considering social, environmental and economic criteria. In the absence of a panel of experts Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach is used in order to filter the best out of the possible network structures, seeking for the maximum technical efficiency. Super-Efficiency DEA model is also used in order to reduce the solutions and find the best out of all the possible. The results showed that in order to achieve maximum efficiency, the social and environmental criteria must be weighted more than the economic ones.

Technical efficiency determinants within a dual banking system:a DEA-bootstrap approach

The purpose of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of the efficiency of Islamic and conventional banks in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. In this study, we explain inefficiencies obtained by introducing firm-specific as well as macroeconomic variables. Our findings indicate that during the eight years of study, conventional banks largely outperform Islamic banks with an average technical efficiency score of 81% compared to 95.57%. However, it is clear that since 2008, efficiency of conventional banks was in a downward trend while the efficiency of their Islamic counterparts was in an upward trend since 2009. This indicates that Islamic banks have succeeded to maintain a level of efficiency during the subprime crisis period. Finally, for the whole sample, the analysis demonstrates the strong link of macroeconomic indicators with efficiency for GCC banks. Surprisingly, we have not found any significant relationship in the case of Islamic banks.

Analysis of rogue wave phenomenon in optical fiber based on soliton's eigenvalue

The impact of third-order dispersion (TOD) on optical rogue wave phenomenon is investigated numerically. We validate the TOD coefficient by utilizing the eigenvalue of the associated equation of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLSE). © 2014 OSA.

Analysis of extended range variable gain hybrid Raman-EDFAs in systems using Nyquist-WDM 100/200G PM-QPSK/16QAM

We use the GN-model to assess Nyquist-WDM 100/200Gbit/s PM-QPSK/16QAM signal reach on low loss, large core area fibre using extended range, variable gain hybrid Raman-EDFAs. 5000/1500km transmission is possible over a wide range of amplifier spans. © OSA 2014.

Individual variability analysis of fluorescence parameters measured in skin with different levels of nutritive blood flow

Fluorescence spectroscopy has recently become more common in clinical medicine. However, there are still many unresolved issues related to the methodology and implementation of instruments with this technology. In this study, we aimed to assess individual variability of fluorescence parameters of endogenous markers (NADH, FAD, etc.) measured by fluorescent spectroscopy (FS) in situ and to analyse the factors that lead to a significant scatter of results. Most studied fluorophores have an acceptable scatter of values (mostly up to 30%) for diagnostic purposes. Here we provide evidence that the level of blood volume in tissue impacts FS data with a significant inverse correlation. The distribution function of the fluorescence intensity and the fluorescent contrast coefficient values are a function of the normal distribution for most of the studied fluorophores and the redox ratio. The effects of various physiological (different content of skin melanin) and technical (characteristics of optical filters) factors on the measurement results were additionally studied.The data on the variability of the measurement results in FS should be considered when interpreting the diagnostic parameters, as well as when developing new algorithms for data processing and FS devices.

Analysis of carrier phase extraction methods in 112-Gbit/s NRZ-PDM-QPSK coherent transmission system

We present a comparative analysis on three carrier phase extraction approaches, including a one-tap normalized least mean square method, a block-average method, and a Viterbi-Viterbi method, in coherent transmission system considering equalization enhanced phase noise. © OSA 2012.