Modelling the influence of change in fire regime on the local distribution of a Mediterranean pyrophytic plant species (Cistus salviifolius) at its northern range limit

Aims: To assess the potential distribution of an obligate seeder and active pyrophyte, Cistus salviifolius, a vulnerable species in the Swiss Red List; to derive scenarios by changing the fire return interval; and to discuss the results from a conservation perspective. A more general aim is to assess the impact of fire as a natural factor influencing the vegetation of the southern slopes of the Alps. Locations: Alps, southern Switzerland. Methods: Presence-absence data to fit the model were obtained from the most recent field mapping of C. salviifolius. The quantitative environmental predictors used in this study include topographic, climatic and disturbance (fire) predictors. Models were fitted by logistic regression and evaluated by jackknife and bootstrap approaches. Changes in fire regime were simulated by increasing the time-return interval of fire (simulating longer periods without fire). Two scenarios were considered: no fire in the past 15 years; or in the past 35 years. Results: Rock cover, slope, topographic position, potential evapotranspiration and time elapsed since the last fire were selected in the final model. The Nagelkerke R-2 of the model for C. salviifolius was 0.57 and the Jackknife area under the curve evaluation was 0.89. The bootstrap evaluation revealed model robustness. By increasing the return interval of fire by either up to 15 years, or 35 years, the modelled C. salviifolius population declined by 30-40%, respectively. Main conclusions: Although fire plays a significant role, topography and rock cover appear to be the most important predictors, suggesting that the distribution of C. salviifolius in the southern Swiss Alps is closely related to the availability of supposedly competition-free sites, such as emerging bedrock, ridge locations or steep slopes. Fire is more likely to play a secondary role in allowing C. salviifolius to extend its occurrence temporarily, by increasing germination rates and reducing the competition from surrounding vegetation. To maintain a viable dormant seed bank for C. salviifolius, conservation managers should consider carrying out vegetation clearing and managing wild fire propagation to reduce competition and ensure sufficient recruitment for this species.

Growth decrease in Alpine whitefish: investigating the relative contribution of fishing induced selection and environmental change and its implication for conservation measures

La pression exercée par les activités humaines menace pratiquement tous les écosystèmes aquatiques du globe. Ainsi, sous l'effet de divers facteurs tels que la pollution, le réchauffement climatique ou encore la pêche industrielle, de nombreuses populations de poissons ont vu leurs effectifs chuter et divers changements morphologiques ont été observés. Dans cette étude, nous nous sommes intéressés à une menace particulière: la sélection induite par la pêche sur la croissance des poissons. En effet, la génétique des populations prédit que la soustraction régulière des individus les plus gros peut entraîner des modifications rapides de certains traits physiques comme la croissance individuelle. Cela a par ailleurs été observé dans de nombreuses populations marines ou lacustres, dont les populations de féras, bondelles et autres corégones des lacs suisses. Toutefois, malgré un nombre croissant d'études décrivant ce phénomène, peu de plans de gestion en tiennent compte, car l'importance des effets génétiques liés à la pêche est le plus souvent négligée par rapport à l'impact des changements environnementaux. Le but premier de cette étude a donc été de quantifier l'importance des facteurs génétiques et environnementaux. Dans le premier chapitre, nous avons étudié la population de palée du lac de Joux (Coregonus palaea). Nous avons déterminé les différentiels de sélection dus à la pêche, c'est-à-dire l'intensité de la sélection sur le taux de croissance, ainsi que les changements nets de croissance au cours du temps. Nous avons observé une baisse marquée de croissance et un différentiel de sélection important indiquant qu'au moins 30% de la diminution de croissance observée était due à la pression de sélection induite par la pêche. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous avons effectué les mêmes analyses sur deux espèces proches du lac de Brienz (C. albellus et C. fatioi) et avons observé des effets similaires dont l'intensité était spécifique à chaque espèce. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous avons analysé deux autres espèces : C. palaea et C. confusus du lac de Bienne, et avons constaté que le lien entre la pression de sélection et la diminution de croissance était influencé par des facteurs environnementaux. Finalement, dans le dernier chapitre, nous avons étudié les effets potentiels de différentes modifications de la taille des mailles des filets utilisés pour la pêche à l'aide de modèles mathématiques. Nous concluons que la pêche a un effet génétique non négligeable (et donc peu réversible) sur la croissance individuelle dans les populations observée, que cet effet est lié à la compétition pour la nourriture et à la qualité de l'environnement, et que certaines modifications simples de la taille des mailles des filets de pêche pourraient nettement diminuer l'effet de sélection et ainsi ralentir, voir même renverser la diminution de croissance observée.

Clinical assessment of fluorescence cytoscopy during transurethral bladder resection in superficial bladder cancer.

The prognosis of superficial bladder cancer in terms of recurrence and disease progression is related to bladder tumor multiplicity and the presence of concomitant "plane" tumors such as high-grade dysplasia and carcinoma in situ. This study in 33 patients aimed to demonstrate the role of fluorescence cystoscopy in transurethral resection of superficial bladder cancer. The method is based on the detection of protoporphyrin-IX-induced fluorescence in urothelial cancer cells by topical administration of 5-aminolevulinic acid. The sensitivity and the specificity of this procedure on apparently normal mucosa in superficial bladder cancer are estimated to be 82.9% and 81.3%, respectively. Thus, fluorescence cytoscopy is a simple and reliable method for mapping the bladder mucosa, especially in the case of multifocal bladder disease, and it facilitates the screening of occult dysplasia.

LSI-R Scores: Change Matters, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, April 2009

Past studies have shown the LSI-R risk assessment tool to be accurate in assessing the risk level of Iowa offenders. A more recent study, conducted by the University of Cincinnati, showed that a reduction in the LSI-R score over time results in a lower risk that an Iowa offender will reoffend.

LSI-R Scores: Change Matters - Part II, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections

In the last issue of the Data Download, we discussed that overall, a 10% drop in LSI-R scores for our highest risk offenders was associated with a 6% reduction in recidivism. However, LSI-R score reductions for the lowest risk offenders don't substantially affect their already low recidivism rates. The issue contained charts that showed this held true for both probationers and parolees. The charts below show that change also matters for women offenders and African-American offenders.

LSI-R Scores: Change Matters - Part III, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, June 2009

In this issue, we take a closer look at the individual risk factors measured by the LSI-R. There are several risk factors that the LSI-R assessment tool measures: Criminal History; Education/Employment; Financial; Family/Marital; Accommodations (Living Situation); Leisure/Recreation; Companions; Alcohol/Drug Problem; Emotional/Personal; and Attitudes/Orientation.

Entropy change and magnetocaloric effect in Gd5(SixGe1-x)4

Isothermal magnetization curves up to 23 T have been measured in Gd5Si1.8Ge2.2. We show that the values of the entropy change at the first-order magnetostructural transition, obtained from the Clausius-Clapeyron equation and the Maxwell relation, are coincident, provided the Maxwell relation is evaluated only within the transition region and the maximum applied field is high enough to complete the transition. These values are also in agreement with the entropy change obtained from differential scanning calorimetry. We also show that a simple phenomenological model based on the temperature and field dependence of the magnetization accounts for these results.

Magnetic field induced entropy change and magnetoelasticity in Ni-Mn-Ga alloys

The magnetocaloric effect that originates from the martensitic transition in the ferromagnetic Ni-Mn-Gashape-memory alloy is studied. We show that this effect is controlled by the magnetostructural coupling at boththe martensitic variant and magnetic domain length scales. A large entropy change induced by moderatemagnetic fields is obtained for alloys in which the magnetic moment of the two structural phases is not verydifferent. We also show that this entropy change is not associated with the entropy difference between themartensitic and the parent phase arising from the change in the crystallographic structure which has beenfound to be independent of the magnetic field within this range of fields.

APLICAÇÃO SUPERFICIAL DE CALCÁRIO COM DIFERENTES TEORES DE MAGNÉSIO E GRANULOMETRIAS EM SISTEMA PLANTIO DIRETO

RESUMO A correção da acidez do solo no sistema plantio direto (SPD) é feita por meio da aplicação de calcário na superfície sem incorporação. Com a hipótese de que a fonte e granulometria dos corretivos interferem na velocidade de reação no solo em curto prazo e na resposta das culturas à calagem na superfície em SPD, foram realizados dois experimentos, sendo um em Latossolo Vermelho Distrófico textura muito argilosa e outro em Neossolo Litólico Húmico textura franco-arenosa, no período de 2010 a 2012. O delineamento empregado, em cada experimento, foi em blocos completos ao acaso, no esquema fatorial 2 × 2 × 4, com três repetições. Os tratamentos foram constituídos de duas fontes de calcário, calcítico (25-50 g kg-1 MgO) e dolomítico (160-180 g kg-1 MgO), duas faixas de poder relativo de neutralização total (PRNT), faixa B (PRNT de 60 a 75 %) e faixa D (PRNT>90 %), e quatro doses de calcário na superfície, sendo um tratamento-controle sem calagem e três doses estimadas para elevar a saturação por bases do solo (0,00-0,20 m), a 50, 70 e 90 %. Nos dois experimentos, o calcário foi aplicado a lanço sobre a superfície do solo, em agosto de 2010. Realizaram-se dois cultivos em 2010/11 e 2011/12, com milho e soja, no Latossolo Vermelho Distrófico, e soja e milho, no Neossolo Litólico Húmico, respectivamente. A aplicação superficial de calcário nos dois solos, após 12 meses, proporcionou redução da acidez na camada de 0,00-0,05 m e, em menor grau, na de 0,05-0,10 m. A amenização da acidez nas camadas da superfície foi mais acentuada com o emprego de doses mais elevadas de calcário calcítico e de corretivo com granulometria mais fina. A calagem superficial aumentou as concentrações de Ca-foliar com a utilização de calcário calcítico e de Mg-foliar com o uso de calcário dolomítico, e reduziu os teores foliares de Mn e Zn, independentemente da fonte de calcário, nas culturas de milho e soja. As produtividades de grãos de milho e soja no Latossolo Vermelho Distrófico e Neossolo Litólico Húmico aumentaram com as doses de calcário, mas não foram influenciadas pelas fontes e faixas de PRNT dos corretivos. A calagem superficial é uma prática efetiva e importante para maximizar a produtividade de grãos das culturas em SPD, independentemente do teor de Mg e da granulometria dos corretivos.

Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under 21st-century climate change

Quantitative estimates of the range loss of mountain plants under climate change have so far mostly relied on static geographical projections of species' habitat shifts(1-3). Here, we use a hybrid model(4) that combines such projections with simulations of demography and seed dispersal to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. This model predicts average range size reductions of 44-50% by the end of the twenty-first century, which is similar to projections from the most 'optimistic' static model (49%). However, the hybrid model also indicates that population dynamics will lag behind climatic trends and that an average of 40% of the range still occupied at the end of the twenty-first century will have become climatically unsuitable for the respective species, creating an extinction debt(5,6). Alarmingly, species endemic to the Alps seem to face the highest range losses. These results caution against optimistic conclusions from moderate range size reductions observed during the twenty-first century as they are likely to belie more severe longer-term effects of climate warming on mountain plants.

Early change in maladaptive defense style and development of the therapeutic alliance

Résumé Cette étude examine les changements précoces dans le Style Défensif Maladaptatif (SDM), le développement de l'alliance thérapeutique et la relation entre le SDM et l'alliance au cours d'une psychothérapie psychodynamique ultra-brève. Soixante-huit patients ambulatoires du centre de consultation psychiatrique et psychothérapique ont bénéficié d'une intervention psychodynamique en quatre séances. Les mesures des défenses et de l'alliance étaient effectuées à la première et à la dernière séance. Les patients qui ont débuté l'intervention avec une alliance faible et qui l'ont terminée avec une alliance haute (groupe de patients avec une alliance de croissance linéaire) ont diminué leur utilisation de défenses maladaptatives de manière significative au cours de la thérapie, alors que ce n'a pas été le cas pour les patients des groupes à alliances haute-stable et basse-stable. Les résultats ont montré qu'à la fin de l'intervention, le SDM et l'alliance étaient corrélés pour tous les patients. Cette corrélation intéressait plus particulièrement le groupe avec une alliance de croissance linéaire. Ces résultats suggèrent, que le développement de l'alliance thérapeutique reflètent le travail de collaboration entre le patient et son thérapeute alors qu'ils essayent de mieux comprendre les causes de la crise du patient. Cette compréhension peut aider à réduire les défenses initialement activées pour permettre au patient de se défendre de l'anxiété et d'un sentiment de détresse. Abstract This study examined the early change in Maladaptive Defense Style (MDS), the development of the Therapeutic Alliance, and the relationship between MDS and alliance, in a short psychodynamic intervention. Sixty-eight outpatients from a psychiatric clinic completed a four-session psychodynamic intervention. Defense and alliance measures were collected at the intake and the final session. Patients who began the intervention with a poor alliance but ended with a good alliance (linear growth therapeutic alliance group) significantly decreased their use of maladaptive defenses over the course of therapy, while patients in the high and low alliance groups did not. Results showed that at the end of the intervention, MDS and alliance were related across all patients. This relation concerned particularly the linear growth therapeutic alliance profile. These results suggest that the developing therapeutic alliance might reflect the collaborative work between the patient and the therapist as they try to understand the causes of the crisis. This understanding might help reduce maladaptive defenses that were initially activated to ward off anxiety and distress.