Modeling the Volatility of Real GDP Growth: The Case of Japan Revisited

Previous studies (e.g., Hamori, 2000; Ho and Tsui, 2003; Fountas et al., 2004) find high volatility persistence of economic growth rates using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications. This paper reexamines the Japanese case, using the same approach and showing that this finding of high volatility persistence reflects the Great Moderation, which features a sharp decline in the variance as well as two falls in the mean of the growth rates identified by Bai and Perronâs (1998, 2003) multiple structural change test. Our empirical results provide new evidence. First, excess kurtosis drops substantially or disappears in the GARCH or exponential GARCH model that corrects for an additive outlier. Second, using the outlier-corrected data, the integrated GARCH effect or high volatility persistence remains in the specification once we introduce intercept-shift dummies into the mean equation. Third, the time-varying variance falls sharply, only when we incorporate the break in the variance equation. Fourth, the ARCH in mean model finds no effects of our more correct measure of output volatility on output growth or of output growth on its volatility.

Na 1 Nachlass Max Horkheimer, 695 - "The Collapse of German Democracy and the Expansion of National Socialism", "Cultural Aspects of National Socialism" u.a. (p. IX 169.1a - IX 170.1-4)

"The Collapse of German Democracy and the Expansion of National Socialism" (1940):; 1. Darstellung des Forschungsprojekts (15.9.1940), b. Typoskript mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 78 Blatt; 2. "Research work on recent trends in the history of ideas (parts of the Research project on the Collapse of German Democracy would be included)". Als Memorandum zur Eröffnung zur Eröffnung einer Zweigstelle des Instituts in Los Angeles (12.12.1940): a) Typoskript, 2 Blatt, b) Teilstück, Typoskript mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 1 Blatt, c) Teilstück, Typoskript mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 1 Blatt, d) Teilstück, Typoskript, 1 Blatt, e) Teilstück, Typoskript, 1 Blatt, f) Entwurf, Typoskript mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen und Manuskript, 3 Blatt; 3. University of California, Los Angeles: 2 Briefe (Abschrift) von Max Horkheimer, o.O., 1940, 2 Briefe (Abschrift) an Max Horkheimer, 1940, 2 Blatt; A.R.L. Gurland: "Survey of Structural Changes in the German Economy, 1933 to 1939. Technological Bases and Organizational Forms of the National Socialist Economic System". Typoskript mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen unter anderem von Theodor W. Adorno, 48 Blatt (formal nicht identisch mit "Technological Trends and Economic Structure under National Socialism", Studies in Philosophy and Social Science, Bd. IX, 1941, S. 226ff.); "Cultural Aspects of National Socialism. A Research Project" (1941):; 1. Institute of Social Research: Mitteilung über das Forschungsprojekt und das 'Supplementary Statement', Typoskript, englisch, 4 Blatt; 2. Supplementary Statement to the Research Project, a) Typoskript, 14.4.1941, 63 Blatt, b) Typoskript, 12.4.1941, mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 35 Blatt; 3. "Cultural Aspects of National Socialism. A Research Project" (24.2.1941), a) als Typoskript vervielfältigt, 54 Blatt, b) Typoskript mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 34 Blatt, c) Fassung Januar 1941, Typoskript mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 40 Blatt; 4. Inhaltsverzeichnisse, mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 3 Blatt;

Functional Characterization of AtxA, the Bacillus anthracis Virulence Regulator

Coordinated expression of virulence genes in Bacillus anthracis occurs via a multi-faceted signal transduction pathway that is dependent upon the AtxA protein. Intricate control of atxA gene transcription and AtxA protein function have become apparent from studies of AtxA-induced synthesis of the anthrax toxin proteins and the poly-D-glutamic acid capsule, two factors with important roles in B. anthracis pathogenesis. The amino-terminal region of the AtxA protein contains winged-helix (WH) and helix-turn-helix (HTH) motifs, structural features associated with DNA-binding. Using filter binding assays, I determined that AtxA interacted non-specifically at a low nanomolar affinity with a target promoter (Plef) and AtxA-independent promoters. AtxA also contains motifs associated with phosphoenolpyruvate: sugar phosphotransferase system (PTS) regulation. These PTS-regulated domains, PRD1 and PRD2, are within the central amino acid sequence. Specific histidines in the PRDs serve as sites of phosphorylation (H199 and H379). Phosphorylation of H199 increases AtxA activity; whereas, H379 phosphorylation decreases AtxA function. For my dissertation, I hypothesized that AtxA binds target promoters to activate transcription and that DNA-binding activity is regulated via structural changes within the PRDs and a carboxy-terminal EIIB-like motif that are induced by phosphorylation and ligand binding. I determined that AtxA has one large protease-inaccessible domain containing the PRDs and the carboxy-terminal end of the protein. These results suggest that AtxA has a domain that is distinct from the putative DNA-binding region of the protein. My data indicate that AtxA activity is associated with AtxA multimerization. Oligomeric AtxA was detected when co-affinity purification, non-denaturing gel electrophoresis, and bis(maleimido)hexane (BMH) cross-linking techniques were employed. I exploited the specificity of BMH for cysteine residues to show that AtxA was cross-linked at C402, implicating the carboxy-terminal EIIB-like region in protein-protein interactions. In addition, higher amounts of the cross-linked dimeric form of AtxA were observed when cells were cultured in conditions that promote toxin gene expression. Based on the results, I propose that AtxA multimerization requires the EIIB-like motif and multimerization of AtxA positively impacts function. I investigated the role of the PTS in the function of AtxA and the impact of phosphomimetic residues on AtxA multimerization. B. anthracis Enzyme I (EI) and HPr did not facilitate phosphorylation of AtxA in vitro. Moreover, markerless deletion of ptsHI in B. anthracis did not perturb AtxA function. Taken together, these results suggest that proteins other than the PTS phosphorylate AtxA. Point mutations mimicking phosphohistidine (H to D) and non-phosphorylated histidine (H to A) were tested for an impact on AtxA activity and multimerization. AtxA H199D, AtxA H199A, and AtxA H379A displayed multimerization phenotypes similar to that of the native protein, whereas AtxA H379D was not susceptible to BMH cross-linking or co-affinity purification with AtxA-His. These data suggest that phosphorylation of H379 may decrease AtxA activity by preventing AtxA multimerization. Overall, my data support the following model of AtxA function. AtxA binds to target gene promoters in an oligomeric state. AtxA activity is increased in response to the host-related signal bicarbonate/CO2 because this signal enhances AtxA multimerization. In contrast, AtxA activity is decreased by phosphorylation at H379 because multimerization is inhibited. Future studies will address the interplay between bicarbonate/CO2 signaling and phosphorylation on AtxA function.

Targeting TRAF6 for Cancer Therapeutical Development

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-Receptor Associated Factors (TRAFs) are a family of signal transducer proteins. TRAF6 is a unique member of this family in that it is involved in not only the TNF superfamily, but the toll-like receptor (TLR)/IL-1R (TIR) superfamily. The formation of the complex consisting of Receptor Activator of Nuclear Factor κ B (RANK), with its ligand (RANKL) results in the recruitment of TRAF6, which activates NF-κB, JNK and MAP kinase pathways. TRAF6 is critical in signaling with leading to release of various growth factors in bone, and promotes osteoclastogenesis. TRAF6 has also been implicated as an oncogene in lung cancer and as a target in multiple myeloma. In the hopes of developing small molecule inhibitors of the TRAF6-RANK interaction, multiple steps were carried out. Computational prediction of hot spot residues on the protein-protein interaction of TRAF6 and RANK were examined. Three methods were used: Robetta, KFC2, and HotPoint, each of which uses a different methodology to determine if a residue is a hot spot. These hot spot predictions were considered the basis for resolving the binding site for in silico high-throughput screening using GOLD and the MyriaScreen database of drug/lead-like compounds. Computationally intensive molecular dynamics simulations highlighted the binding mechanism and TRAF6 structural changes upon hit binding. Compounds identified as hits were verified using a GST-pull down assay, comparing inhibition to a RANK decoy peptide. Since many drugs fail due to lack of efficacy and toxicity, predictive models for the evaluation of the LD50 and bioavailability of our TRAF6 hits, and these models can be used towards other drugs and small molecule therapeutics as well. Datasets of compounds and their corresponding bioavailability and LD50 values were curated based, and QSAR models were built using molecular descriptors of these compounds using the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) method, and quality of these models were cross-validated.

Cambios en la estructura económica social y conflictos sociales en el noroeste del Chubut 1990-2005

Buscamos avanzar en el conocimiento sobre cómo se desarrolla el movimiento de la sociedad argentina en su conjunto, analizado desde un caso particular que es el noreste del Chubut en el período que va desde la imposición de la hegemonía del capital financiero en 1989-1990 hasta el año 2005. Se pretende en esta tesis entender y conceptualizar en términos científicos cómo se mueve esa sociedad, de qué son expresión cada uno de sus conflictos, qué expresan los distintos sectores que se movilizan, qué expresan los cambios estructurales que se desarrollan, etc. Desde esta perspectiva nos interesa específicamente poder aportar al debate sobre cuáles son las opciones de plantear un proyecto alternativo de desarrollo para la provincia, la región y el país. Dentro del tema general de buscar comprender el movimiento de la sociedad, realizamos un abordaje de la realidad desde la utilización de un conocimiento acumulado y desde un recorte de esa realidad. Ese recorte lo realizamos a dos niveles. En primer lugar en términos espaciales: tomamos como base una región que denominamos el noreste de Chubut. Recortamos de la provincia del Chubut al área que tuvo el mayor crecimiento vinculado a los programas de polos de desarrollo durante las décadas del '60, '70 y parte del '80. La misma está delimitada por los actuales departamentos de Rawson y Biedma, de acuerdo a la división administrativa que toma la provincia desde 1957. En segundo lugar realizamos un recorte en términos temporales: abordamos como objeto de estudio al movimiento de la sociedad en esa región durante el período que va de 1989-1990 hasta el 2005. Consideramos que tomar este período nos permite observar el proceso de cambios que se generan con la realización de la hegemonía del capital financiero y el proceso de protestas, luchas y conflictos sociales que en el marco de estos cambios se desarrollan en la sociedad. La decisión de estudiar hasta el 2005 parte de considerar relevante comprender cómo continua el proceso después del 2001-2002. En esos años se produce la recuperación de la economía nacional, con un gran impulso para la región, lo cual genera el interés de poder precisar de qué se trata esta 'recuperación' y si estamos ante un movimiento orgánico o coyuntural de la economía. El período también nos permitió profundizar en el debate de las relaciones de fuerzas políticas, al hacer observable el período en que la burguesía logra recuperar la representación institucional como expresión legítima de la sociedad y consigue frenar la protesta social

Cambios en la estructura económica social y conflictos sociales en el noroeste del Chubut 1990-2005

Buscamos avanzar en el conocimiento sobre cómo se desarrolla el movimiento de la sociedad argentina en su conjunto, analizado desde un caso particular que es el noreste del Chubut en el período que va desde la imposición de la hegemonía del capital financiero en 1989-1990 hasta el año 2005. Se pretende en esta tesis entender y conceptualizar en términos científicos cómo se mueve esa sociedad, de qué son expresión cada uno de sus conflictos, qué expresan los distintos sectores que se movilizan, qué expresan los cambios estructurales que se desarrollan, etc. Desde esta perspectiva nos interesa específicamente poder aportar al debate sobre cuáles son las opciones de plantear un proyecto alternativo de desarrollo para la provincia, la región y el país. Dentro del tema general de buscar comprender el movimiento de la sociedad, realizamos un abordaje de la realidad desde la utilización de un conocimiento acumulado y desde un recorte de esa realidad. Ese recorte lo realizamos a dos niveles. En primer lugar en términos espaciales: tomamos como base una región que denominamos el noreste de Chubut. Recortamos de la provincia del Chubut al área que tuvo el mayor crecimiento vinculado a los programas de polos de desarrollo durante las décadas del '60, '70 y parte del '80. La misma está delimitada por los actuales departamentos de Rawson y Biedma, de acuerdo a la división administrativa que toma la provincia desde 1957. En segundo lugar realizamos un recorte en términos temporales: abordamos como objeto de estudio al movimiento de la sociedad en esa región durante el período que va de 1989-1990 hasta el 2005. Consideramos que tomar este período nos permite observar el proceso de cambios que se generan con la realización de la hegemonía del capital financiero y el proceso de protestas, luchas y conflictos sociales que en el marco de estos cambios se desarrollan en la sociedad. La decisión de estudiar hasta el 2005 parte de considerar relevante comprender cómo continua el proceso después del 2001-2002. En esos años se produce la recuperación de la economía nacional, con un gran impulso para la región, lo cual genera el interés de poder precisar de qué se trata esta 'recuperación' y si estamos ante un movimiento orgánico o coyuntural de la economía. El período también nos permitió profundizar en el debate de las relaciones de fuerzas políticas, al hacer observable el período en que la burguesía logra recuperar la representación institucional como expresión legítima de la sociedad y consigue frenar la protesta social

Cambios en la estructura económica social y conflictos sociales en el noroeste del Chubut 1990-2005

Buscamos avanzar en el conocimiento sobre cómo se desarrolla el movimiento de la sociedad argentina en su conjunto, analizado desde un caso particular que es el noreste del Chubut en el período que va desde la imposición de la hegemonía del capital financiero en 1989-1990 hasta el año 2005. Se pretende en esta tesis entender y conceptualizar en términos científicos cómo se mueve esa sociedad, de qué son expresión cada uno de sus conflictos, qué expresan los distintos sectores que se movilizan, qué expresan los cambios estructurales que se desarrollan, etc. Desde esta perspectiva nos interesa específicamente poder aportar al debate sobre cuáles son las opciones de plantear un proyecto alternativo de desarrollo para la provincia, la región y el país. Dentro del tema general de buscar comprender el movimiento de la sociedad, realizamos un abordaje de la realidad desde la utilización de un conocimiento acumulado y desde un recorte de esa realidad. Ese recorte lo realizamos a dos niveles. En primer lugar en términos espaciales: tomamos como base una región que denominamos el noreste de Chubut. Recortamos de la provincia del Chubut al área que tuvo el mayor crecimiento vinculado a los programas de polos de desarrollo durante las décadas del '60, '70 y parte del '80. La misma está delimitada por los actuales departamentos de Rawson y Biedma, de acuerdo a la división administrativa que toma la provincia desde 1957. En segundo lugar realizamos un recorte en términos temporales: abordamos como objeto de estudio al movimiento de la sociedad en esa región durante el período que va de 1989-1990 hasta el 2005. Consideramos que tomar este período nos permite observar el proceso de cambios que se generan con la realización de la hegemonía del capital financiero y el proceso de protestas, luchas y conflictos sociales que en el marco de estos cambios se desarrollan en la sociedad. La decisión de estudiar hasta el 2005 parte de considerar relevante comprender cómo continua el proceso después del 2001-2002. En esos años se produce la recuperación de la economía nacional, con un gran impulso para la región, lo cual genera el interés de poder precisar de qué se trata esta 'recuperación' y si estamos ante un movimiento orgánico o coyuntural de la economía. El período también nos permitió profundizar en el debate de las relaciones de fuerzas políticas, al hacer observable el período en que la burguesía logra recuperar la representación institucional como expresión legítima de la sociedad y consigue frenar la protesta social

Planktic foraminifera at the Paleocene-Eocene transition in the Antarctic Indian Ocean

Isotopic depth stratification and relative abundance studies of planktic foraminifera at ODP Site 738 reveal three major faunal turnovers during the latest Paleocene and early Eocene, reflecting the climatic and structural changes in the Antarctic surface ocean. Faunal Event 1 occurred near the Paleocene/Eocene boundary and is characterized by a faunal turnover in deep dwellers, decreased relative abundance in intermediate dwellers and increased relative abundance in surface dwellers. This event marks a temporary elimination of the vertical structure in the surface ocean over a period of more than 63,000 years that is apparently associated with the sudden shutdown of the "Antarctic Intermediate Water" production. The appearance of morozovellids before this event suggests that polar warming is the cause for the shutdown in the production of this water mass. At this time warm saline deep water may have formed at low latitudes. Faunal Event 2 occurred near the AP5a/AP5b Subzonal boundary and is characterized by a faunal turnover in deep dwellers with no apparent change in surface and intermediate dwellers. Increased individual size, wall-thickness and relative abundance in deep dwelling chiloguembelinids suggests the formation of a deep oxygen minima in the Antarctic Oceans during the maximum polar warming possibly as a result of upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water. Faunal Event 3 occurred in Subzone AP6 and is characterized by a faunal turnover in surface dwellers and a delayed diversification in deep dwellers. This event marks the onset of Antarctic cooling. A drastic decrease in the delta13C/delta18O values of the deep assemblage in Zone AP7 suggests an intensified thermocline and reduced upwelling following the polar cooling.

Physical properties, pore water geochemistry, 210Pb-dating of sediment cores GeoB16426-1, GeoB16427-1, GeoB16429-1

We present differential bathymetry and sediment core data from the Japan Trench, sampled after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki (offshore Japan) earthquake to document that prominent bathymetric and structural changes along the trench axis relate to a large (~27.7 km**2) slump in the trench. Transient geochemical signals in the slump deposit and analysis of diffusive re-equilibration of disturbed SO4**2- profiles over time constrain the triggering of the slump to the 2011 earthquake. We propose a causal link between earthquake slip to the trench and rotational slumping above a subducting horst structure. We conclude that the earthquake-triggered slump is a leading agent for accretion of trench sediments into the forearc and hypothesize that forward growth of the prism and seaward advance of the deformation front by more than 2 km can occur, episodically, during a single-event, large mega-thrust earthquake.

Cuttlebone morphometry measurements

Changes in seawater carbonate chemistry that accompany ongoing ocean acidification have been found to affect calcification processes in many marine invertebrates. In contrast to the response of most invertebrates, calcification rates increase in the cephalopod Sepia officials during long-term exposure to elevated seawater pCO2. The present trial investigated structural changes in the cuttlebones of S. officinalis calcified during 6 weeks of exposure to 615 Pa CO2. Cuttlebone mass increased sevenfold over the course of the growth trail, reaching a mean value of 0.71 ± 0.15 g. Depending on cuttlefish size (mantle lengths 44-56 mm), cuttlebones of CO2-incubated individuals accreted 22-55% more CaCO3 compared to controls at 64 Pa CO2. However, the height of the CO2- exposed cuttlebones was reduced. A decrease in spacing of the cuttlebone lamellae, from 384 ± 26 to 195 ± 38 lm, accounted for the height reduction The greater CaCO3 content of the CO2-incubated cuttlebones can be attributed to an increase in thickness of the lamellar and pillar walls. Particularly, pillar thickness increased from 2.6 ± 0.6 to 4.9 ± 2.2 lm. Interestingly, the incorporation of non-acidsoluble organic matrix (chitin) in the cuttlebones of CO2- exposed individuals was reduced by 30% on average. The apparent robustness of calcification processes in S. officials, and other powerful ion regulators such as decapod cructaceans, during exposure to elevated pCO2 is predicated to be closely connected to the increased extracellular [HCO3 -] maintained by these organisms to compensate extracellular pH. The potential negative impact of increased calcification in the cuttlebone of S. officials is discussed with regard to its function as a lightweight and highly porous buoyancy regulation device. Further studies working with lower seawater pCO2 values are necessary to evaluate if the observed phenomenon is of ecological relevance.

Experiment: Physiological responses of the calcifying rhodophyte, Corallina officinalis (L.), to future CO2 levels

Future atmospheric CO2 levels will most likely have complex consequences for marine organisms, particulary photosynthetic calcifying organisms. Corallina officinalis L. is an erect calcifying macroalga found in the inter- and subtidal regions of temperate rocky coastlines and provides important substrate and refugia for marine meiofauna. The main goal of the current study was to determine the physiological responses of C. officinalis to increased CO2 concentrations expected to occur within the next century and beyond. Our results show that growth and production of inorganic material decreased under high CO2 levels, while carbonic anhydrase activity was stimulated and negatively correlated to algal inorganic content. Photosynthetic efficiency based on oxygen evolution was also negatively affected by increased CO2. The results of this study indicate that C. officinalis may become less competitive under future CO2 levels, which could result in structural changes in future temperate intertidal communities.

Post-Crisis Economic Reform in Indonesia:Policy for Intervening in Ownership in Historical Perspective

Introduction : Economic reform in Indonesia after the Asian currency crisis is often discussed in parallel with Thailand and South Korea, which were alike hit by the crisis. It should however be noted that what happened in Indonesia was a change of political regime from authoritarianism to democracy, not just a change of government as seen in Thailand and South Korea. Indonesia’s post-crisis reform should be understood in the context of dismantling of the Soeharto regime to seek a new democratic state system. 　　　In the political sphere, dramatic institutional changes have occurred since the downfall of the Soeharto government in May 1998. In comparison, changes in the economic sphere are more complex than the political changes, as the former involve at least three aspects. The first is the continuity in the basic framework of capitalist system with policy orientation toward economic liberalization. In this framework, the policies to overcome the crisis are continued from the last period of the Soeharto rule, under the support system of IMF and CGI (Consultative Group on Indonesia). The second aspect is the impact of the political regime change on the economic structure. It is considered that the structure of economic vested interests of the Soeharto regime is being disintegrated as the regime breaks down. The third aspect is the impact of the political regime change on economic policy-making process. The process of formulating and implementing policies has changed drastically from the Soeharto time. With these three aspects simultaneously at work, it is not so easy to identify which of them is the main cause for a given specific economic phenomenon emerging in Indonesia today. 　　　Keeping this difficulty in mind, this paper attempts to situate the post-crisis economic reform in the broader context of the historical development of Indonesian economic policies and their achievements. We focus in particular on the reform policies for banking and corporate sectors and resulting structural changes in these sectors. This paper aims at understanding the significance of the changes in the economic ownership structure that are occurring in the post-Soeharto Indonesia. Economic policies here do not mean macro economic policies, such as fiscal, financial and trade policies, but refer to micro economic policies whereby the government intervenes in the economic ownership structure. In Section 1, we clarify why economic policies for intervening in the ownership structure are important in understanding Indonesia. Section 2 follows the historical development of Indonesia’s economic policies as specified above, throughout the four successive periods since Indonesia’s independence, namely, the parliamentary democracy period, the Guided Democracy period under Soekarno, the Soeharto-regime consolidation period, and the Soeharto-regime transfiguration period2. Then we observe what economic ownership structure was at work in the pre-crisis last days of the Soeharto rule as an outcome of the economic policies. In Section 3, we examine what structural changes have taken place in the banking and corporate sectors due to the reform policies in the post-crisis and post-Soeharto Indonesia. Lastly in Section 4, we interpret the current reorganization of the economic ownership in the context of the historical transition of the ownership structure, taking account of the changes in the policy-making processes under democratization.

Industrialization in Indonesia since the 1970s

Introduction: During the period from the latter half of the 1980s until just before the Asian currency crisis in 1997, Indonesia’s economic development had drawn expectations and attention from various quarters, along with Malaysia and Thailand within the same Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In fact, the 1993 report by the World Bank, entitled “East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy,” recognized Indonesia as one of the East Asian economies with the strong economic performance, i.e. sustained economic growth (World Bank [1993]). And it was the manufacturing industry that had been the driving force behind Indonesia’s economic growth during that period. Since the 1997 outbreak of the Asian currency crisis, however, the manufacturing sector in Indonesia has been mired in a situation that rules out the kind of bright prospects it had emanated previously. The Indonesian economy is still in the developing stage, and in accordance with the history of industrial structural changes in other countries, Indonesia’s manufacturing industry can still be expected to serve as the engine of the country’s economic development. But is it really possible in an environment where economic liberalization and globalization are forging ahead? And, what sort of problems have to be dealt with to make it possible? To answer these questions, it is necessary to know the current conditions of Indonesia’s manufacturing sector, and to do that, it becomes important to think back on the history of the country’s industrialization. Thus, this paper is intended to retrace and unlock the track of Indonesia’s industrialization up until the establishment of the manufacturing sector in its present form, with the ultimate goal being to give answers to the above-mentioned questions. Subject to an analysis in this paper is the period from the installment of President Soeharto’s administration onward when industrialization of the modern industrial sector2 moved into high gear. 　　　The composition of this paper is outlined below. Section 1 first shows why it is important to examine import substitution and export orientation, both of which are used as the measures of the analysis in this paper, in tracking the history of the industrialization, and then discuss indicators of import substitution and export orientation as well as statistical data and resources needed to develop those indicators. Section 2 clarifies the status of the manufacturing industry among all industries by looking at the composition ratio of the manufacturing industry in terms of value added, imports and exports. Section 3 to 5 cover three periods between 1971 and 1995 and make an analysis of import substitution, export orientation and changes in the industrial structure for each period. Section 3 analyzes the period from 1971 through 1985, when Indonesia pursued the import substitution policy amid the oil boom. Section 4 covers the period from 1985 through 1990, when the packages of deregulatory measures were announced successively under structural adjustment policies made necessary by the fall in oil prices. Section 5 examines the period from 1990 through 1995, which saw the alternate shifts between the overheating of the economy by sharply rising investment by both domestic and foreign investors in the wake of the liberalization of investment, trade and financial services, and polices to cool down the economy. Section 6, which covers the 1995-1999 period straddling the economic crisis, is designed for an analysis of the changes in production trends before and after the economic crisis as well as the changes in the industrial structure. Section 7, after summing up the history of Indonesia’s industrialization examined in the previous sections, discusses problems found in respective sectors and attempts to present future prospects for the country’s manufacturing industry.

Preliminary discussions on the urbanization of rural areas in modern Iran

In this translation draft of the first part of the author's recently-published book in Japanese, entitled as "Rural-cities in Contemporary Iran: Revolution, War and the Structural Changes in the Rural Society," we are presenting the preliminary discussions on Iranian middle-sized cities and towns which emerged in these 30 years or so. We start from the explanations of the contents of the above-mentioned book and do the reviewing of the preceding studies, followed by the critical review of the studies on the Iranian revolution in 1979, and the studies on Iran's recent political trends and the tendencies towards the local governance, which was tempered and collapsed with the appearance of President Ahmadīnejād. This consists of the Introduction and the first parts of Chapter 1 of our book, and we are expecting to finish translating the whole contents and to publish it in the near future. We apologize for the shortcomings of this paper, for example some partial lack of correspondence of its bibliography with the main contents, mainly because of the technical reasons.

China's regional economies and value chains : an interregional input-output analysis

Attempts to understand China’s role in global value chains have often noted the case of Apple's iPhone production, in particular the fact that the value added during the Chinese portion of the iPhone’s supply chain is no more than 4%. However, when we examine the Chinese economy as a whole in global production networks, China’s share in total induced value added by China’s exports of final products to the USA is about 75% in 2005. This leads us to investigate how Chinese value added is created and distributed not only internationally but also domestically. To elucidate the increasing complexity of China’s domestic production networks, this paper focuses on the measure of Domestic Value Chains (DVCs) across regions and their linkages with global markets. By using China’s 1997 and 2007 interregional input-output tables, we can understand in detail the structural changes in domestic trade in terms of value added, as well as the position and degree of participation of different regions within the DVCs.