Conditioning of stochastic 3-D fracture networks to hydrological and geophysical data

The geometry and connectivity of fractures exert a strong influence on the flow and transport properties of fracture networks. We present a novel approach to stochastically generate three-dimensional discrete networks of connected fractures that are conditioned to hydrological and geophysical data. A hierarchical rejection sampling algorithm is used to draw realizations from the posterior probability density function at different conditioning levels. The method is applied to a well-studied granitic formation using data acquired within two boreholes located 6 m apart. The prior models include 27 fractures with their geometry (position and orientation) bounded by information derived from single-hole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data acquired during saline tracer tests and optical televiewer logs. Eleven cross-hole hydraulic connections between fractures in neighboring boreholes and the order in which the tracer arrives at different fractures are used for conditioning. Furthermore, the networks are conditioned to the observed relative hydraulic importance of the different hydraulic connections by numerically simulating the flow response. Among the conditioning data considered, constraints on the relative flow contributions were the most effective in determining the variability among the network realizations. Nevertheless, we find that the posterior model space is strongly determined by the imposed prior bounds. Strong prior bounds were derived from GPR measurements and helped to make the approach computationally feasible. We analyze a set of 230 posterior realizations that reproduce all data given their uncertainties assuming the same uniform transmissivity in all fractures. The posterior models provide valuable statistics on length scales and density of connected fractures, as well as their connectivity. In an additional analysis, effective transmissivity estimates of the posterior realizations indicate a strong influence of the DFN structure, in that it induces large variations of equivalent transmissivities between realizations. The transmissivity estimates agree well with previous estimates at the site based on pumping, flowmeter and temperature data.

Early and late skin reactions to radiotherapy for breast cancer and their correlation with radiation-induced DNA damage in lymphocytes

INTRODUCTION Radiotherapy outcomes might be further improved by a greater understanding of the individual variations in normal tissue reactions that determine tolerance. Most published studies on radiation toxicity have been performed retrospectively. Our prospective study was launched in 1996 to measure the in vitro radiosensitivity of peripheral blood lymphocytes before treatment with radical radiotherapy in patients with breast cancer, and to assess the early and the late radiation skin side effects in the same group of patients. We prospectively recruited consecutive breast cancer patients receiving radiation therapy after breast surgery. To evaluate whether early and late side effects of radiotherapy can be predicted by the assay, a study was conducted of the association between the results of in vitro radiosensitivity tests and acute and late adverse radiation effects. METHODS Intrinsic molecular radiosensitivity was measured by using an initial radiation-induced DNA damage assay on lymphocytes obtained from breast cancer patients before radiotherapy. Acute reactions were assessed in 108 of these patients on the last treatment day. Late morbidity was assessed after 7 years of follow-up in some of these patients. The Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) morbidity score system was used for both assessments. RESULTS Radiosensitivity values obtained using the in vitro test showed no relation with the acute or late adverse skin reactions observed. There was no evidence of a relation between acute and late normal tissue reactions assessed in the same patients. A positive relation was found between the treatment volume and both early and late side effects. CONCLUSION After radiation treatment, a number of cells containing major changes can have a long survival and disappear very slowly, becoming a chronic focus of immunological system stimulation. This stimulation can produce, in a stochastic manner, late radiation-related adverse effects of varying severity. Further research is warranted to identify the major determinants of normal tissue radiation response to make it possible to individualize treatments and improve the outcome of radiotherapy in cancer patients.

Exploration of geological variability and possible processes through the use of compositional data analysis: an example using scottish metamorphosed

Developments in the statistical analysis of compositional data over the last twodecades have made possible a much deeper exploration of the nature of variability,and the possible processes associated with compositional data sets from manydisciplines. In this paper we concentrate on geochemical data sets. First we explainhow hypotheses of compositional variability may be formulated within the naturalsample space, the unit simplex, including useful hypotheses of subcompositionaldiscrimination and specific perturbational change. Then we develop through standardmethodology, such as generalised likelihood ratio tests, statistical tools to allow thesystematic investigation of a complete lattice of such hypotheses. Some of these tests are simple adaptations of existing multivariate tests but others require specialconstruction. We comment on the use of graphical methods in compositional dataanalysis and on the ordination of specimens. The recent development of the conceptof compositional processes is then explained together with the necessary tools for astaying- in-the-simplex approach, namely compositional singular value decompositions. All these statistical techniques are illustrated for a substantial compositional data set, consisting of 209 major-oxide and rare-element compositions of metamorphosed limestones from the Northeast and Central Highlands of Scotland.Finally we point out a number of unresolved problems in the statistical analysis ofcompositional processes

Convex linear combination processes for compositions

Aitchison and Bacon-Shone (1999) considered convex linear combinations ofcompositions. In other words, they investigated compositions of compositions, wherethe mixing composition follows a logistic Normal distribution (or a perturbationprocess) and the compositions being mixed follow a logistic Normal distribution. Inthis paper, I investigate the extension to situations where the mixing compositionvaries with a number of dimensions. Examples would be where the mixingproportions vary with time or distance or a combination of the two. Practicalsituations include a river where the mixing proportions vary along the river, or acrossa lake and possibly with a time trend. This is illustrated with a dataset similar to thatused in the Aitchison and Bacon-Shone paper, which looked at how pollution in aloch depended on the pollution in the three rivers that feed the loch. Here, I explicitlymodel the variation in the linear combination across the loch, assuming that the meanof the logistic Normal distribution depends on the river flows and relative distancefrom the source origins

Insights into shallow magmatic processes in large silicic magma bodies: the trace element record in the Fish Canyon magma body, Colorado

Highly evolved rhyolite glass plus near-solidus mineral assemblages in voluminous, dacitic, crystal-rich ignimbrites provide an opportunity to evaluate the late magmatic evolution of granodiorite batholiths. This study reports laser-ablation ICP-MS analyses of trace element concentrations in feldspars, hornblende, biotite, titanite, zircon, magnetite, and interstitial glass of the crystal-rich Fish Canyon Tuff. The high-silica rhyolite glass is characterized by relatively high concentrations of feldspar-compatible elements (e.g., 100 ppm Sr and 500 ppm Ba) and low concentrations of Y (< 7 ppm) and HREE (&SIM; 1 ppm Yb), hence high LREE/HREE (Ce/Yb > 40) compared to many well-studied high-silica rhyolite glasses and whole-rock compositions. Most minerals record some trace element heterogeneities, with, in particular, one large hornblende phenocryst showing four- to six-fold core-to-rim increases in Sr and Ba coupled with a decrease in Sc. The depletions of Y and HREE in the Fish Canyon glass relative to the whole-rock composition (concentrations in glass &SIM; 30% of those in whole rocks) reflect late crystallization of phases wherein these elements were compatible. As garnet is not stable at the low-P conditions at which the Fish Canyon magma crystallized, we show that a combination of modally abundant hornblende (&SIM; 4%) + titanite (&SIM; 0.5-1%) and the highly polymerized nature of the rhyolitic liquid led to Y and HREE depletions in melt. Relatively high Sr and Ba contents in glass and rimward Sr and Ba increases in euhedral, concentrically zoned hornblende suggest partial feldspar dissolution and a late release of these elements to the melt as hornblende was crystallizing, in agreement with textural evidence for feldspar (and quartz) resorption. Both observations are consistent with thermal rejuvenation of the magma body prior to eruption, during which the proportion of melt increased via feldspar and quartz dissolution, even as hydrous and accessory phases were crystallizing. Sr/Y in Fish Canyon glass (13-18) is lower than the typical ``adakitic'' value (> 40), confirming that high Sr/Y is a reliable indicator of high-pressure magma generation and/or differentiation wherein garnet is implicated.

Modeling stochasticity and robustness in gene regulatory networks.

MOTIVATION: Understanding gene regulation in biological processes and modeling the robustness of underlying regulatory networks is an important problem that is currently being addressed by computational systems biologists. Lately, there has been a renewed interest in Boolean modeling techniques for gene regulatory networks (GRNs). However, due to their deterministic nature, it is often difficult to identify whether these modeling approaches are robust to the addition of stochastic noise that is widespread in gene regulatory processes. Stochasticity in Boolean models of GRNs has been addressed relatively sparingly in the past, mainly by flipping the expression of genes between different expression levels with a predefined probability. This stochasticity in nodes (SIN) model leads to over representation of noise in GRNs and hence non-correspondence with biological observations. RESULTS: In this article, we introduce the stochasticity in functions (SIF) model for simulating stochasticity in Boolean models of GRNs. By providing biological motivation behind the use of the SIF model and applying it to the T-helper and T-cell activation networks, we show that the SIF model provides more biologically robust results than the existing SIN model of stochasticity in GRNs. AVAILABILITY: Algorithms are made available under our Boolean modeling toolbox, GenYsis. The software binaries can be downloaded from http://si2.epfl.ch/ approximately garg/genysis.html.

Phylogenetic alpha and beta diversities of butterfly communities correlate with climate in the western Swiss Alps

The observation of non-random phylogenetic distribution of traits in communities provides evidence for niche-based community assembly. Environment may influence the phylogenetic structure of communities because traits determining how species respond to prevailing conditions can be phylogenetically conserved. In this study, we investigate the variation of butterfly species richness and of phylogenetic - and -diversities along temperature and plant species richness gradients. Our study indicates that butterfly richness is independently positively correlated to temperature and plant species richness in the study area. However, the variation of phylogenetic - and -diversities is only correlated to temperature. The significant phylogenetic clustering at high elevation suggests that cold temperature filters butterfly lineages, leading to communities mostly composed of closely related species adapted to those climatic conditions. These results suggest that in colder and more severe conditions at high elevations deterministic processes and not purely stochastic events drive the assemblage of butterfly communities.

Compliance with guidelines-recommended processes in pneumonia: impact of health status and initial signs

Initial care has been associated with improved survival of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We aimed to investigate patient comorbidities and health status measured by the Charlson index and clinical signs at diagnosis associated with adherence to recommended processes of care in CAP. We studied 3844 patients hospitalized with CAP. The evaluated recommendations were antibiotic adherence to Spanish guidelines, first antibiotic dose <6 hours and oxygen assessment. Antibiotic adherence was 72.6%, first dose <6 h was 73.4% and oxygen assessment was 90.2%. Antibiotic adherence was negatively associated with a high Charlson score (Odds ratio [OR], 0.91), confusion (OR, 0.66) and tachycardia ≥100 bpm (OR, 0.77). Delayed first dose was significantly lower in those with tachycardia (OR, 0.75). Initial oxygen assessment was negatively associated with fever (OR, 0.61), whereas tachypnea ≥30 (OR, 1.58), tachycardia (OR, 1.39), age >65 (OR, 1.51) and COPD (OR, 1.80) were protective factors. The combination of antibiotic adherence and timing <6 hours was negatively associated with confusion (OR, 0.69) and a high Charlson score (OR, 0.92) adjusting for severity and hospital effect, whereas age was not an independent factor. Deficient health status and confusion, rather than age, are associated with lower compliance with antibiotic therapy recommendations and timing, thus identifying a subpopulation more prone to receiving lower quality care.

Intelligent PCA contribution analysis for quality estimation in batch processes. Application in a sequencing batch reactor for wastewater treatment

En aquest treball, es proposa un nou mètode per estimar en temps real la qualitat del producte final en processos per lot. Aquest mètode permet reduir el temps necessari per obtenir els resultats de qualitat de les anàlisi de laboratori. S'utiliza un model de anàlisi de componentes principals (PCA) construït amb dades històriques en condicions normals de funcionament per discernir si un lot finalizat és normal o no. Es calcula una signatura de falla pels lots anormals i es passa a través d'un model de classificació per la seva estimació. L'estudi proposa un mètode per utilitzar la informació de les gràfiques de contribució basat en les signatures de falla, on els indicadors representen el comportament de les variables al llarg del procés en les diferentes etapes. Un conjunt de dades compost per la signatura de falla dels lots anormals històrics es construeix per cercar els patrons i entrenar els models de classifcació per estimar els resultas dels lots futurs. La metodologia proposada s'ha aplicat a un reactor seqüencial per lots (SBR). Diversos algoritmes de classificació es proven per demostrar les possibilitats de la metodologia proposada.

Theory of mind and cognitive processes in aging and Alzheimer type dementia: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Theory of mind (ToM) performance in aging and dementia of the Alzheimer type (DAT) has been a growing interest of researchers and recently, theoretical trends in ToM development have led to a focus on determining the cognitive skills involved in ToM performance. The aim of the present review is to answer three main questions: How is ToM assessed in aging and DAT? How does ToM performance evolve in aging and DAT? Do cognitive processes influence ToM performance in aging and DAT? METHOD: A systematic review was conducted to provide a targeted overview of recent studies relating ToM performance with cognitive processes in aging and DAT. RESULTS: RESULTS suggest a decrease in ToM performance, more pronounced in complex ToM tasks. Moreover, the review points up the strong involvement of executive functions, especially inhibition, and reasoning skills in ToM task achievement. CONCLUSION: Current data suggest that the structure of ToM tasks itself could lead to poor performance, especially in populations with reduced cognitive abilities.

Stochastic optimal bid to electricity markets with environmental risk constraints

There are many factors that influence the day-ahead market bidding strategies of a generation company (GenCo) in the current energy market framework. Environmental policy issues have become more and more important for fossil-fuelled power plants and they have to be considered in their management, giving rise to emission limitations. This work allows to investigate the influence of both the allowances and emission reduction plan, and the incorporation of the derivatives medium-term commitments in the optimal generation bidding strategy to the day-ahead electricity market. Two different technologies have been considered: the coal thermal units, high-emission technology, and the combined cycle gas turbine units, low-emission technology. The Iberian Electricity Market and the Spanish National Emissions and Allocation Plans are the framework to deal with the environmental issues in the day-ahead market bidding strategies. To address emission limitations, some of the standard risk management methodologies developed for financial markets, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), have been extended. This study offers to electricity generation utilities a mathematical model to determinate the individual optimal generation bid to the wholesale electricity market, for each one of their generation units that maximizes the long-run profits of the utility abiding by the Iberian Electricity Market rules, the environmental restrictions set by the EU Emission Trading Scheme, as well as the restrictions set by the Spanish National Emissions Reduction Plan. The economic implications for a GenCo of including the environmental restrictions of these National Plans are analyzed and the most remarkable results will be presented.