Exploring models for the length of stay distribution.

Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG) are frequently used to standardize the comparison of consumption variables, such as length of stay (LOS). In order to be reliable, this comparison must control for the presence of outliers, i.e. values far removed from the pattern set by the majority of the data. Indeed, outliers can distort the usual statistical summaries, such as means and variances. A common practice is to trim LOS values according to various empirical rules, but there is little theoretical support for choosing between alternative procedures. This pilot study explores the possibility of describing LOS distributions with parametric models which provide the necessary framework for the use of robust methods.

Panel index VAR models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators

This paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The approach can be used to obtain multi-unit forecasts and leading indicators and to conduct policy analysis in a multiunit setups. The framework of analysis is Bayesian and MCMC methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest. The model is reparametrized to resemble an observable index model and specification searches are discussed. As an example, we construct leading indicators for inflation and GDP growth in the Euro area using G-7 information.

Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

Rapid affinity purification of erythropoietin from biological samples using disposable monoliths.

Identification of post-translational modifications of proteins in biological samples often requires access to preanalytical purification and concentration methods. In the purification step high or low molecular weight substances can be removed by size exclusion filters, and high abundant proteins can be removed, or low abundant proteins can be enriched, by specific capturing tools. In this paper is described the experience and results obtained with a recently emerged and easy-to-use affinity purification kit for enrichment of the low amounts of EPO found in urine and plasma specimens. The kit can be used as a pre-step in the EPO doping control procedure, as an alternative to the commonly used ultrafiltration, for detecting aberrantly glycosylated isoforms. The commercially available affinity purification kit contains small disposable anti-EPO monolith columns (6 ?L volume, Ø7 mm, length 0.15 mm) together with all required buffers. A 24-channel vacuum manifold was used for simultaneous processing of samples. The column concentrated EPO from 20 mL urine down to 55 ?L eluate with a concentration factor of 240 times, while roughly 99.7% of non-relevant urine proteins were removed. The recoveries of Neorecormon (epoetin beta), and the EPO analogues Aranesp and Mircera applied to buffer were high, 76%, 67% and 57%, respectively. The recovery of endogenous EPO from human urine was 65%. High recoveries were also obtained when purifying human, mouse and equine EPO from serum, and human EPO from cerebrospinal fluid. Evaluation with the accredited EPO doping control method based on isoelectric focusing (IEF) showed that the affinity purification procedure did not change the isoform distribution for rhEPO, Aranesp, Mircera or endogenous EPO. The kit should be particularly useful for applications in which it is essential to avoid carry-over effects, a problem commonly encountered with conventional particle-based affinity columns. The encouraging results with EPO propose that similar affinity monoliths, with the appropriate antibodies, should constitute useful tools for general applications in sample preparation, not only for doping control of EPO and other hormones such as growth hormone and insulin but also for the study of post-translational modifications of other low abundance proteins in biological and clinical research, and for sample preparation prior to in vitro diagnostics.

Heterogeneous 40Ar* distributions in naturally deformed muscovite: in situ UV-laser ablation evidence for micro structurally controlled intragrain diffusion

Micas are commonly used in Ar-40/Ar-39 thermochronological studies of variably deformed rocks yet the physical basis by which deformation may affect radiogenic argon retention in mica is poorly constrained. This study examines the relationship between deformation and deformation-induced microstructures on radiogenic argon retention in muscovite, A combination of furnace step-heating and high-spatial resolution in situ UV-laser ablation Ar-40/Ar-39 analyses are reported for deformed muscovites sampled from a granitic pegmatite vein within the Siviez-Mischabel Nappe, western Swiss Alps (Penninic domain, Brianconnais unit). The pegmatite forms part of the Variscan (similar to 350 Ma) Alpine basement and exhibits a prominent Alpine S-C fabric including numerous mica `fish' that developed under greenschist facies metamorphic conditions, during the dominant Tertiary Alpine tectonic phase of nappe emplacement. Furnace step-heating of milligram quantities of separated muscovite grains yields an Ar-40/Ar-39 age spectrum with two distinct staircase segments but without any statistical plateau, consistent with a previous study from the same area. A single (3 X 5 mm) muscovite porphyroclast (fish) was investigated by in situ UV-laser ablation. A histogram plot of 170 individual Ar-40/Ar-39 UV-laser ablation ages exhibit a range from 115 to 387 Ma with modes at approximately 340 and 260 Ma. A variogram statistical treatment of the (40)Ad/Ar-39 results reveals ages correlated with two directions; a highly correlated direction at 310 degrees and a lesser correlation at 0 degrees relative to the sense of shearing. Using the highly correlated direction a statistically generated (Kriging method) age contour map of the Ar-40/Ar-39 data reveals a series of elongated contours subparallel to the C-surfaces which where formed during Tertiary nappe emplacement. Similar data distributions and slightly younger apparent ages are recognized in a smaller mica fish. The observed intragrain age variations are interpreted to reflect the partial loss of radiogenic argon during Alpine (similar to 35 Ma) greenschist facies metamorphism. One-dirnensional diffusion modelling results are consistent with the idea that the zones of youngest apparent age represent incipient shear band development within the mica porphyroclasts, thus providing a network of fast diffusion pathways. During Alpine greenschist facies metamorphism the incipient shear bands enhanced the intragrain loss of radiogenic argon. The structurally controlled intragrain age variations observed in this investigation imply that deformation has a direct control on the effective length scale for argon diffusion, which is consistent with the heterogeneous nature of deformation. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation du débit de filtration glomérulaire par la formule DFG = K x T/Pcr [Estimation of glomerular filtration rate by the formula GFR = K x T/Pc].

BACKGROUND: Creatinine clearance is the most common method used to assess glomerular filtration rate (GFR). In children, GFR can also be estimated without urine collection, using the formula GFR (mL/min x 1.73 m2) = K x height [cm]/Pcr [mumol/L]), where Pcr represents the plasma creatinine concentration. K is usually calculated using creatinine clearance (Ccr) as an index of GFR. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the reliability of the formula, using the standard UV/P inulin clearance to calculate K. METHODS: Clearance data obtained in 200 patients (1 month to 23 years) during the years 1988-1994 were used to calculate the factor K as a function of age. Forty-four additional patients were studied prospectively in conditions of either hydropenia or water diuresis in order to evaluate the possible variation of K as a function of urine flow rate. RESULTS: When GFR was estimated by the standard inulin clearance, the calculated values of K was 39 (infants less than 6 months), 44 (1-2 years) and 47 (2-12 years). The correlation between the values of GFR, as estimated by the formula, and the values measured by the standard clearance of inulin was highly significant; the scatter of individual values was however substantial. When K was calculated using Ccr, the formula overestimated Cin at all urine flow rates. When calculated from Ccr, K varied as a function of urine flow rate (K = 50 at urine flow rates of 3.5 and K = 64 at urine flow rates of 8.5 mL/min x 1.73 m2). When calculated from Cin, in the same conditions, K remained constant with a value of 50. CONCLUSIONS: The formula GFR = K x H/Pcr can be used to estimate GFR. The scatter of values precludes however the use of the formula to estimate GFR in pathophysiological studies. The formula should only be used when K is calculated from Cin, and the plasma creatinine concentration is measured in well defined conditions of hydration.

Step count is associated with lower nighttime systolic blood pressure and increased dipping.

BACKGROUND: Higher nighttime blood pressure (BP) and the loss of nocturnal dipping of BP are associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular events. However, the determinants of the loss of nocturnal BP dipping are only beginning to be understood. We investigated whether different indicators of physical activity were associated with the loss of nocturnal dipping of BP. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 103 patients referred for 24-hour ambulatory monitoring of BP. We measured these patients' step count (SC), active energy expenditure (AEE), and total energy expenditure simultaneously, using actigraphs. RESULTS: In our study population of 103 patients, most of whom were hypertensive, SC and AEE were associated with nighttime systolic BP in univariate (SC, r = -0.28, P < 0.01; AEE, r = -0.20, P = 0.046) and multivariate linear regression analyses (SC, coefficient beta = -5.37, P < 0.001; AEE, coefficient beta = -0.24, P < 0.01). Step count was associated with both systolic (r = 0.23, P = 0.018) and diastolic (r = 0.20, P = 0.045) BP dipping. Nighttime systolic BP decreased progressively across the categories of sedentary, moderately active, and active participants (125mm Hg, 116mm Hg, 112mm Hg, respectively; P = 0.002). The degree of BP dipping of BP increased progressively across the same three categories of activity (respectively 8.9%, 14.6%, and 18.6%, P = 0.002, for systolic BP and respectively 12.8%, 18.1%, and 22.2%, P = 0.006, for diastolic BP). CONCLUSIONS: Step count is continuously associated with nighttime systolic BP and with the degree of BP dipping independently of 24-hour mean BP. The combined use of an actigraph for measuring indicators of physical activity and a device for 24-hour measurement of ambulatory BP may help identify patients at increased risk for cardiovascular events in whom increased physical activity toward higher target levels may be recommended.

The optimal length of contracts with application to outsourcing

This paper resolves three empirical puzzles in outsourcing by formalizing the adaptationcost of long-term performance contracts. Side-trading with a new partner alongside a long-term contract (to exploit an adaptation-requiring investment) is usually less effective than switching to the new partner when the contract expires. So long-term contracts that prevent holdup of specific investments may induce holdup of adaptation investments. Contract length therefore trades of specific and adaptation investments. Length should increase with the importance and specificity of self-investments, and decrease with the importance of adaptation investments for which side-trading is ineffective. My general model also shows how optimal length falls with cross-investments and wasteful investments.

Honey, I shrunk the sample covariance matrix

The central message of this paper is that nobody should be using the samplecovariance matrix for the purpose of portfolio optimization. It containsestimation error of the kind most likely to perturb a mean-varianceoptimizer. In its place, we suggest using the matrix obtained from thesample covariance matrix through a transformation called shrinkage. Thistends to pull the most extreme coefficients towards more central values,thereby systematically reducing estimation error where it matters most.Statistically, the challenge is to know the optimal shrinkage intensity,and we give the formula for that. Without changing any other step in theportfolio optimization process, we show on actual stock market data thatshrinkage reduces tracking error relative to a benchmark index, andsubstantially increases the realized information ratio of the activeportfolio manager.