Risk assessment for invasive exotic plants using multi-criteria risk models

Invasive exotic plants have altered natural ecosystems across much of North America. In the Midwest, the presence of invasive plants is increasing rapidly, causing changes in ecosystem patterns and processes. Early detection has become a key component in invasive plant management and in the detection of ecosystem change. Risk assessment through predictive modeling has been a useful resource for monitoring and assisting with treatment decisions for invasive plants. Predictive models were developed to assist with early detection of ten target invasive plants in the Great Lakes Network of the National Park Service and for garlic mustard throughout the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. These multi-criteria risk models utilize geographic information system (GIS) data to predict the areas at highest risk for three phases of invasion: introduction, establishment, and spread. An accuracy assessment of the models for the ten target plants in the Great Lakes Network showed an average overall accuracy of 86.3%. The model developed for garlic mustard in the Upper Peninsula resulted in an accuracy of 99.0%. Used as one of many resources, the risk maps created from the model outputs will assist with the detection of ecosystem change, the monitoring of plant invasions, and the management of invasive plants through prioritized control efforts.

John Calvin's Impact on Church and Society, 1509-2009. Essays for the 500th birthday of Calvin

A tribute to the monumental influence of John Calvin in the 500 years since his birth. / What legacies, still enduring today, have John Calvin and Calvinism given to the church and society in Europe and North America? An international group of scholars tackles that question in this volume honoring Calvin's 500th birthday. These chapters together provide a comprehensive and accessible introduction to Calvin's life and thought, the history of the Reformation in Switzerland and worldwide, and his continuing relevance for ecclesial, social, and political questions today. / Contributors: Philip Benedict, James D. Bratt, Emidio Campi, Wulfert de Greef, Christopher Elwood, Eva-Maria Faber, Eric Fuchs, Ulrich H. J. Krtner, Christian Link, Christian Moser, Andrew Pettegree, Christoph Strohm, Mario Turchetti./ The essays in this book fit beautifully together to provide a solid, complete work that gives precise insight into the many different facets of Calvin and Calvinism. The high-level research found here clearly shows the great impact that Calvin has had on both church and society. It is a great pleasure to see Calvin here anew. Eberhard Busch / University of Gttingen / That John Calvin made a deep and lasting impact on many aspects of history is common knowledge but the character of the man and the nature of his influence are perhaps as controversial as any that can be named. It is thus a challenge to examine even a fraction of the many ways that Calvins life and thought have contributed to the shaping of later ages in both church and society. This volume offers essays on key points from an appropriately international group of authors appreciative but critical, drawing on a rich range of recent scholarship, presented in a pleasing and accessible form. It is a fine place for the new reader of Calvin to get a glimpse of his impact, while offering a fresh summary of some significant issues for more advanced students of the Reformer. Elsie Anne McKee / Princeton Theological Seminary / Hirzel and Sallmann have succeeded in gathering essays by an illustrious circle of experts both historians and theologians on important areas of Calvins thought and impact. Ranging from an insignificant city at the edge of the Swiss Confederation in the 1530s to the Accra Confession of 2004, these essays will serve to correct popular misconceptions. A fine introduction for a broader readership that wants more than mere armchair theology. Peter Opitz / University of Zurich

Holocene climatic change and the development of the lake-effect snowbelt in Michigan, USA

Lake-effect snow is an important constraint on ecological and socio-economic systems near the North American Great Lakes. Little is known about the Holocene history of lake-effect snowbelts, and it is difficult to decipher how lake-effect snowfall abundance affected ecosystem development. We conducted oxygen-isotope analysis of calcite in lake-sediment cores from northern Lower Michigan to infer Holocene climatic variation and assess snowbelt development. The two lakes experience the same synoptic-scale climatic systems, but only one of them (Huffman Lake) receives a significant amount of lake-effect snow. A 177-cm difference in annual snowfall causes groundwater inflow at Huffman Lake to be 18O-depleted by 2.3‰ relative to O'Brien Lake. To assess when the lake-effect snowbelt became established, we compared calcite-δ18O profiles of the last 11,500 years from these two sites. The chronologies are based on accelerator-mass-spectrometry 14C ages of 11 and 17 terrestrial-plant samples from Huffman and O'Brien lakes, respectively. The values of δ18O are low at both sites from 11,500 to 9500 cal yr BP when the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) exerted a dominant control over the regional climate and provided periodic pulses of meltwater to the Great Lakes basin. Carbonate δ18O increases by 2.6‰ at O'Brien Lake and by 1.4‰ at Huffman Lake between 9500 and 7000 cal yr BP, suggesting a regional decline in the proportion of runoff derived from winter precipitation. The Great Lakes snowbelt probably developed between 9500 and 5500 cal yr BP as inferred from the progressive 18O-depletion at Huffman Lake relative to O'Brien Lake, with the largest increase of lake-effect snow around 7000 cal yr BP. Lake-effect snow became possible at this time because of increasing contact between the Great Lakes and frigid arctic air. These changes resulted from enhanced westerly flow over the Great Lakes as the LIS collapsed, and from rapidly rising Great Lakes levels during the Nipissing Transgression. The δ18O difference between Huffman and O'Brien lakes declines after 5500 cal yr BP, probably because of a northward shift of the polar vortex that brought increasing winter precipitation to the entire region. However, δ18O remains depleted at Huffman Lake relative to O'Brien Lake because of the continued production of lake-effect snow.

Footprint of recycled water subsidies downwind of Lake Michigan

Continental evaporation is a significant and dynamic flux within the atmospheric water budget, but few methods provide robust observational constraints on the large-scale hydroclimatological and hydroecological impacts of this ‘recycled-water' flux. We demonstrate a geospatial analysis that provides such information, using stable isotope data to map the distribution of recycled water in shallow aquifers downwind from Lake Michigan. The δ2H and δ18O values of groundwater in the study region decrease from south to north, as expected based on meridional gradients in climate and precipitation isotope ratios. In contrast, deuterium excess (d = δ2H − 8 × δ18O) values exhibit a significant zonal gradient and finer-scale spatially patterned variation. Local d maxima occur in the northwest and southwest corners of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, where ‘lake-effect' precipitation events are abundant. We apply a published model that describes the effect of recycling from lakes on atmospheric vapor d values to estimate that up to 32% of recharge into individual aquifers may be derived from recycled Lake Michigan water. Applying the model to geostatistical surfaces representing mean d values, we estimate that between 10% and 18% of the vapor evaporated from Lake Michigan is re-precipitated within downwind areas of the Lake Michigan drainage basin. Our approach provides previously unavailable observational constraints on regional land-atmosphere water fluxes in the Great Lakes Basin and elucidates patterns in recycled-water fluxes that may influence the biogeography of the region. As new instruments and networks facilitate enhanced spatial monitoring of environmental water isotopes, similar analyses can be widely applied to calibrate and validate water cycle models and improve projections of regional hydroecological change involving the coupled lake-atmosphere-land system. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/ES12-00062.1

Ice Core Record of Rising Lead Pollution in the North Pacific Atmosphere

A high-resolution, 8000 year-long ice core record from the Mt. Logan summit plateau (5300 m asl) reveals the initiation of trans-Pacific lead (Pb) pollution by ca. 1730, and a > 10-fold increase in Pb concentration (1981-1998 mean = 68.9 ng/l) above natural background (5.6 ng/l) attributed to rising anthropogenic Pb emissions from Asia. The largest rise in North Pacific Pb pollution from 1970-1998 (end of record) is contemporaneous with a decrease in Eurasian and North American Pb pollution as documented in ice core records from Greenland, Devon Island, and the European Alps. The distinct Pb pollution history in the North Pacific is interpreted to result from the later industrialization and less stringent abatement measures in Asia compared to North America and Eurasia. The Mt. Logan record shows evidence for both a rising Pb emissions signal from Asia and a trans-Pacific transport efficiency signal related to the strength of the Aleutian Low.

Fire in ice: two millennia of boreal forest fire history from the Greenland NEEM ice core

Biomass burning is a major source of greenhouse gases and influences regional to global climate. Pre-industrial fire-history records from black carbon, charcoal and other proxies provide baseline estimates of biomass burning at local to global scales spanning millennia, and are thus useful to examine the role of fire in the carbon cycle and climate system. Here we use the specific biomarker levoglucosan together with black carbon and ammonium concentrations from the North Greenland Eemian (NEEM) ice cores (77.49° N, 51.2° W; 2480 m a.s.l) over the past 2000 years to infer changes in boreal fire activity. Increases in boreal fire activity over the periods 1000–1300 CE and decreases during 700–900 CE coincide with high-latitude NH temperature changes. Levoglucosan concentrations in the NEEM ice cores peak between 1500 and 1700 CE, and most levoglucosan spikes coincide with the most extensive central and northern Asian droughts of the past millennium. Many of these multi-annual droughts are caused by Asian monsoon failures, thus suggesting a connection between low- and high-latitude climate processes. North America is a primary source of biomass burning aerosols due to its relative proximity to the Greenland Ice Cap. During major fire events, however, isotopic analyses of dust, back trajectories and links with levoglucosan peaks and regional drought reconstructions suggest that Siberia is also an important source of pyrogenic aerosols to Greenland.

The Secular State Under Siege: Religion and Politics in Europe and America

Throughout human history, religion and politics have entertained the most intimate of connections as systems of authority regulating individuals and society. While the two have come apart through the process of secularization, secularism is challenged today by the return of public religion. This cogent analysis unravels the nature of the connection, disconnection, and attempted reconnection between religion and politics in the West. In a comparison of Western Europe and North America, Christianity and Islam, Joppke advances far-reaching theoretical, historical, and comparative-political arguments. With respect to theory, it is argued that only a “substantive” concept of religion, as pertaining to the existence of supra-human powers, opens up the possibility of a historical-comparative perspective on religion. At the level of history, secularization is shown to be the distinct outcome of Latin Christianity itself. And at the level of comparative politics, the Christian Right in America which has attacked the “wall of separation” between religion and state and Islam in Europe with the controversial insistence on sharia law and other “illiberal” claims from some quarters are taken to be counterpart incarnations of public religion and challenges to the secular state. This clearly argued, sweeping book will provide an invaluable framework for approaching an array of critical issues at the intersection of religion, law and politics for advanced students and researchers across the social sciences and legal studies, as well as for the interested public.

Database of Ice-Rich Yedoma Permafrost (IRYP)

Vast portions of Arctic and sub-Arctic Siberia, Alaska and the Yukon Territory are covered by ice-rich silty to sandy deposits that are containing large ice wedges, resulting from syngenetic sedimentation and freezing. Accompanied by wedge-ice growth in polygonal landscapes, the sedimentation process was driven by cold continental climatic and environmental conditions in unglaciated regions during the late Pleistocene, inducing the accumulation of the unique Yedoma deposits up to >50 meters thick. Because of fast incorporation of organic material into syngenetic permafrost during its formation, Yedoma deposits include well-preserved organic matter. Ice-rich deposits like Yedoma are especially prone to degradation triggered by climate changes or human activity. When Yedoma deposits degrade, large amounts of sequestered organic carbon as well as other nutrients are released and become part of active biogeochemical cycling. This could be of global significance for future climate warming as increased permafrost thaw is likely to lead to a positive feedback through enhanced greenhouse gas fluxes. Therefore, a detailed assessment of the current Yedoma deposit coverage and its volume is of importance to estimate its potential response to future climate changes. We synthesized the map of the coverage and thickness estimation, which will provide critical data needed for further research. In particular, this preliminary Yedoma map is a great step forward to understand the spatial heterogeneity of Yedoma deposits and its regional coverage. There will be further applications in the context of reconstructing paleo-environmental dynamics and past ecosystems like the mammoth-steppe-tundra, or ground ice distribution including future thermokarst vulnerability. Moreover, the map will be a crucial improvement of the data basis needed to refine the present-day Yedoma permafrost organic carbon inventory, which is assumed to be between 83±12 (Strauss et al., 2013, doi:10.1002/2013GL058088) and 129±30 (Walter Anthony et al., 2014, doi:10.1038/nature13560) gigatonnes (Gt) of organic carbon in perennially-frozen archives. Hence, here we synthesize data on the circum-Arctic and sub-Arctic distribution and thickness of Yedoma for compiling a preliminary circum-polar Yedoma map. For compiling this map, we used (1) maps of the previous Yedoma coverage estimates, (2) included the digitized areas from Grosse et al. (2013) as well as extracted areas of potential Yedoma distribution from additional surface geological and Quaternary geological maps (1.: 1:500,000: Q-51-V,G; P-51-A,B; P-52-A,B; Q-52-V,G; P-52-V,G; Q-51-A,B; R-51-V,G; R-52-V,G; R-52-A,B; 2.: 1:1,000,000: P-50-51; P-52-53; P-58-59; Q-42-43; Q-44-45; Q-50-51; Q-52-53; Q-54-55; Q-56-57; Q-58-59; Q-60-1; R-(40)-42; R-43-(45); R-(45)-47; R-48-(50); R-51; R-53-(55); R-(55)-57; R-58-(60); S-44-46; S-47-49; S-50-52; S-53-55; 3.: 1:2,500,000: Quaternary map of the territory of Russian Federation, 4.: Alaska Permafrost Map). The digitalization was done using GIS techniques (ArcGIS) and vectorization of raster Images (Adobe Photoshop and Illustrator). Data on Yedoma thickness are obtained from boreholes and exposures reported in the scientific literature. The map and database are still preliminary and will have to undergo a technical and scientific vetting and review process. In their current form, we included a range of attributes for Yedoma area polygons based on lithological and stratigraphical information from the original source maps as well as a confidence level for our classification of an area as Yedoma (3 stages: confirmed, likely, or uncertain). In its current version, our database includes more than 365 boreholes and exposures and more than 2000 digitized Yedoma areas. We expect that the database will continue to grow. In this preliminary stage, we estimate the Northern Hemisphere Yedoma deposit area to cover approximately 625,000 km². We estimate that 53% of the total Yedoma area today is located in the tundra zone, 47% in the taiga zone. Separated from west to east, 29% of the Yedoma area is found in North America and 71 % in North Asia. The latter include 9% in West Siberia, 11% in Central Siberia, 44% in East Siberia and 7% in Far East Russia. Adding the recent maximum Yedoma region (including all Yedoma uplands, thermokarst lakes and basins, and river valleys) of 1.4 million km² (Strauss et al., 2013, doi:10.1002/2013GL058088) and postulating that Yedoma occupied up to 80% of the adjacent formerly exposed and now flooded Beringia shelves (1.9 million km², down to 125 m below modern sea level, between 105°E - 128°W and >68°N), we assume that the Last Glacial Maximum Yedoma region likely covered more than 3 million km² of Beringia. Acknowledgements: This project is part of the Action Group "The Yedoma Region: A Synthesis of Circum-Arctic Distribution and Thickness" (funded by the International Permafrost Association (IPA) to J. Strauss) and is embedded into the Permafrost Carbon Network (working group Yedoma Carbon Stocks). We acknowledge the support by the European Research Council (Starting Grant #338335), the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Grant 01DM12011 and "CarboPerm" (03G0836A)), the Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association (#ERC-0013) and the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA, project UFOPLAN FKZ 3712 41 106).