Use of Statistical Methods in Demand Planning

In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.

Concurrent : Easy to use Python computing environment

Concurrent aims to be a different type of task distribution system compared to what MPI like system do. It adds a simple but powerful application abstraction layer to distribute the logic of an entire application onto a swarm of clusters holding similarities with volunteer computing systems. Traditional task distributed systems will just perform simple tasks onto the distributed system and wait for results. Concurrent goes one step further by letting the tasks and the application decide what to do. The programming paradigm is then totally async without any waits for results and based on notifications once a computation has been performed.

Disseny i implementació d'un clúster high performance computing

Clúster format per una màquina principal HEAD Node més 19 nodes de càlcul de la gama SGI13 Altix14 XE Servers and Clusters, unides en una topologia de màster subordinat, amb un total de 40 processadors Dual Core i aproximadament 160Gb de RAM.

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

Fast and Rigorous Computation of Gene and Pathway Scores from SNP-Based Summary Statistics.

Integrating single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) p-values from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) across genes and pathways is a strategy to improve statistical power and gain biological insight. Here, we present Pascal (Pathway scoring algorithm), a powerful tool for computing gene and pathway scores from SNP-phenotype association summary statistics. For gene score computation, we implemented analytic and efficient numerical solutions to calculate test statistics. We examined in particular the sum and the maximum of chi-squared statistics, which measure the strongest and the average association signals per gene, respectively. For pathway scoring, we use a modified Fisher method, which offers not only significant power improvement over more traditional enrichment strategies, but also eliminates the problem of arbitrary threshold selection inherent in any binary membership based pathway enrichment approach. We demonstrate the marked increase in power by analyzing summary statistics from dozens of large meta-studies for various traits. Our extensive testing indicates that our method not only excels in rigorous type I error control, but also results in more biologically meaningful discoveries.

Statistics in Public Understanding of Science review: How to achieve high statistical standards?

This article proposes a checklist to improve statistical reporting in the manuscripts submitted to Public Understanding of Science. Generally, these guidelines will allow the reviewers (and readers) to judge whether the evidence provided in the manuscript is relevant. The article ends with other suggestions for a better statistical quality of the journal.

Plataforma "Cloud Computing" per la comunicació entre pares i professors (Saas)

El projecte que es presenta a continuació és el resultat fruit de la detecció d’un problema de comunicació entre les escoles (sobretot de primària) i el pares dels alumnes que hi cursen els estudis, i la necessitat de trobar-hi una solució. Amb aquesta premissa, i tenint en compte que la tecnologia cada vegada ens ofereix més i millors eines per gestionar les nostres necessitats, es porta a terme la construcció d’un servei al núvol (Saas) capaç de cobrir aquestes necessitats i de fer-ho de la manera més senzilla i eficient possible. La plataforma Aula és un servei on tant professors com pares dels alumnes poden comunicar-se i consultar la informació referent als seus alumnes (en el cas del professors), i dels seus fills (en el cas dels pares/tutors). La solució adoptada ha de ser capaç de funcionar sobre qualsevol aparell (ordinador, tablet o mòbil) i en qualsevol lloc on hi hagi connexió a Internet. No s’ha de realitzar cap tipus d’instal·lació un cop el sistema estigui funcionant, i s’hi podran registrar tants centres com siguin necessaris, així com professionals i pares dels alumnes. També s’ha valorat el manteniment mínim del sistema i la seva escalabilitat, per poder fer front a diferents volums de dades. Així doncs, el projecte Aula es presenta com una solució per gestionar el dia a dia dels professors i alumnes, però que no pretén ser substitut de cap altre sistema de gestió que pugui tenir el centre.

Extension and evaluation of JXTA protocols for supporting reliable P2P distributed computing

Peer-reviewed

Computing the diameter of Coxeter groups

This thesis addresses the problem of computing the minimal and maximal diameter of the Cayley graph of Coxeter groups. We first present and assert relevant parts of polytope theory and related Coxeter theory. After this, a method of contracting the orthogonal projections of a polytope from Rd onto R2 and R3, d ¸ 3 is presented. This method is the Equality Set Projection algorithm that requires a constant number of linearprogramming problems per facet of the projection in the absence of degeneracy. The ESP algorithm allows us to compute also projected geometric diameters of high-dimensional polytopes. A representation set of projected polytopes is presented to illustrate the methods adopted in this thesis.

Statistical Methods for Conservation and Alignment Quality in Proteins

Construction of multiple sequence alignments is a fundamental task in Bioinformatics. Multiple sequence alignments are used as a prerequisite in many Bioinformatics methods, and subsequently the quality of such methods can be critically dependent on the quality of the alignment. However, automatic construction of a multiple sequence alignment for a set of remotely related sequences does not always provide biologically relevant alignments.Therefore, there is a need for an objective approach for evaluating the quality of automatically aligned sequences. The profile hidden Markov model is a powerful approach in comparative genomics. In the profile hidden Markov model, the symbol probabilities are estimated at each conserved alignment position. This can increase the dimension of parameter space and cause an overfitting problem. These two research problems are both related to conservation. We have developed statistical measures for quantifying the conservation of multiple sequence alignments. Two types of methods are considered, those identifying conserved residues in an alignment position, and those calculating positional conservation scores. The positional conservation score was exploited in a statistical prediction model for assessing the quality of multiple sequence alignments. The residue conservation score was used as part of the emission probability estimation method proposed for profile hidden Markov models. The results of the predicted alignment quality score highly correlated with the correct alignment quality scores, indicating that our method is reliable for assessing the quality of any multiple sequence alignment. The comparison of the emission probability estimation method with the maximum likelihood method showed that the number of estimated parameters in the model was dramatically decreased, while the same level of accuracy was maintained. To conclude, we have shown that conservation can be successfully used in the statistical model for alignment quality assessment and in the estimation of emission probabilities in the profile hidden Markov models.

Computing the persistent homology of range images with alpha shapes

Laser scanning is becoming an increasingly popular method for measuring 3D objects in industrial design. Laser scanners produce a cloud of 3D points. For CAD software to be able to use such data, however, this point cloud needs to be turned into a vector format. A popular way to do this is to triangulate the assumed surface of the point cloud using alpha shapes. Alpha shapes start from the convex hull of the point cloud and gradually refine it towards the true surface of the object. Often it is nontrivial to decide when to stop this refinement. One criterion for this is to do so when the homology of the object stops changing. This is known as the persistent homology of the object. The goal of this thesis is to develop a way to compute the homology of a given point cloud when processed with alpha shapes, and to infer from it when the persistent homology has been achieved. Practically, the computation of such a characteristic of the target might be applied to power line tower span analysis.

Statistical Inversion Theory in X-ray Tomography

In this thesis the X-ray tomography is discussed from the Bayesian statistical viewpoint. The unknown parameters are assumed random variables and as opposite to traditional methods the solution is obtained as a large sample of the distribution of all possible solutions. As an introduction to tomography an inversion formula for Radon transform is presented on a plane. The vastly used filtered backprojection algorithm is derived. The traditional regularization methods are presented sufficiently to ground the Bayesian approach. The measurements are foton counts at the detector pixels. Thus the assumption of a Poisson distributed measurement error is justified. Often the error is assumed Gaussian, altough the electronic noise caused by the measurement device can change the error structure. The assumption of Gaussian measurement error is discussed. In the thesis the use of different prior distributions in X-ray tomography is discussed. Especially in severely ill-posed problems the use of a suitable prior is the main part of the whole solution process. In the empirical part the presented prior distributions are tested using simulated measurements. The effect of different prior distributions produce are shown in the empirical part of the thesis. The use of prior is shown obligatory in case of severely ill-posed problem.