983 resultados para Statistical Prediction


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A-1 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program

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A-1 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program

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A-1 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program

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A-1 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program

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Pearson correlation coefficients were applied for the objective comparison of 30 black gel pen inks analysed by laser desorption ionization mass spectrometry (LDI-MS). The mass spectra were obtained for ink lines directly on paper using positive and negative ion modes at several laser intensities. This methodology has the advantage of taking into account the reproducibility of the results as well as the variability between spectra of different pens. A differentiation threshold could thus be selected in order to avoid the risk of false differentiation. Combining results from positive and negative mode yielded a discriminating power up to 85%, which was better than the one obtained previously with other optical comparison methodologies. The technique also allowed discriminating between pens from the same brand.

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A-1 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program

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CONTEXT: Recent magnetic resonance imaging studies have attempted to relate volumetric brain measurements in early schizophrenia to clinical and functional outcome some years later. These studies have generally been negative, perhaps because gray and white matter volumes inaccurately assess the underlying dysfunction that might be predictive of outcome. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of frontal and temporal spectroscopy measures for outcome in patients with first-episode psychoses. DESIGN: Left prefrontal cortex and left mediotemporal lobe voxels were assessed using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy to provide the ratio of N-acetylaspartate (NAA) and choline-containing compounds to creatine and phosphocreatine (Cr) (NAA/Cr ratio). These data were used to predict outcome at 18 months after admission, as assessed by a systematic medical record audit. SETTING: Early psychosis clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-six patients with first-episode psychosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We used regression models that included age at imaging and duration of untreated psychosis to predict outcome scores on the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale, Clinical Global Impression scales, and Social and Occupational Functional Assessment Scale, as well as the number of admissions during the treatment period. We then further considered the contributions of premorbid function and baseline level of negative symptoms. RESULTS: The only spectroscopic predictor of outcome was the NAA/Cr ratio in the prefrontal cortex. Low scores on this variable were related to poorer outcome on all measures. In addition, the frontal NAA/Cr ratio explained 17% to 30% of the variance in outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Prefrontal neuronal dysfunction is an inconsistent feature of early psychosis; rather, it is an early marker of poor prognosis across the first years of illness. The extent to which this can be used to guide treatment and whether it predicts outcome some years after first presentation are questions for further research.

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A-1 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program

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BACKGROUND: Prognosis prediction for resected primary colon cancer is based on the T-stage Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system. We investigated if four well-documented gene expression risk scores can improve patient stratification. METHODS: Microarray-based versions of risk-scores were applied to a large independent cohort of 688 stage II/III tumors from the PETACC-3 trial. Prognostic value for relapse-free survival (RFS), survival after relapse (SAR), and overall survival (OS) was assessed by regression analysis. To assess improvement over a reference, prognostic model was assessed with the area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. All statistical tests were two-sided, except the AUC increase. RESULTS: All four risk scores (RSs) showed a statistically significant association (single-test, P < .0167) with OS or RFS in univariate models, but with HRs below 1.38 per interquartile range. Three scores were predictors of shorter RFS, one of shorter SAR. Each RS could only marginally improve an RFS or OS model with the known factors T-stage, N-stage, and microsatellite instability (MSI) status (AUC gains < 0.025 units). The pairwise interscore discordance was never high (maximal Spearman correlation = 0.563) A combined score showed a trend to higher prognostic value and higher AUC increase for OS (HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.44 to 2.10, P < .001, AUC from 0.6918 to 0.7321) and RFS (HR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.33 to 1.84, P < .001, AUC from 0.6723 to 0.6945) than any single score. CONCLUSIONS: The four tested gene expression-based risk scores provide prognostic information but contribute only marginally to improving models based on established risk factors. A combination of the risk scores might provide more robust information. Predictors of RFS and SAR might need to be different.

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Detecting local differences between groups of connectomes is a great challenge in neuroimaging, because the large number of tests that have to be performed and the impact on multiplicity correction. Any available information should be exploited to increase the power of detecting true between-group effects. We present an adaptive strategy that exploits the data structure and the prior information concerning positive dependence between nodes and connections, without relying on strong assumptions. As a first step, we decompose the brain network, i.e., the connectome, into subnetworks and we apply a screening at the subnetwork level. The subnetworks are defined either according to prior knowledge or by applying a data driven algorithm. Given the results of the screening step, a filtering is performed to seek real differences at the node/connection level. The proposed strategy could be used to strongly control either the family-wise error rate or the false discovery rate. We show by means of different simulations the benefit of the proposed strategy, and we present a real application of comparing connectomes of preschool children and adolescents.

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The aim of this work was the use of NIR technology by direct application of a fiber optic probe on back fat to analyze the fatty acid composition of CLA fed boars and gilts. 265 animals were fed 3 different diets and the fatty acid profile of back fat from Gluteus medius was analyzed using gas chromatography and FT-NIR. Spectra were acquired using a Bruker Optics Matrix-F duplex spectrometer equipped with a fiber optic probe (IN-268-2). Oleic and stearic fatty acids were predicted accurately; myristic, vaccenic and linoleic fatty acids were predicted with lower accuracy, while palmitic and α-linolenic fatty acids were poorly predicted. The relative percentage of fatty acids and NIR spectra showed differences in fatty acid composition of back fat from pigs fed CLA which increased the relative percentage of SFA and PUFA while MUFA decreased. Results suggest that a NIR fiber optic probe can be used to predict total saturated and unsaturated fatty acid composition, as well as the percentage of stearic and oleic. NIR showed potential as a rapid and easily implemented method to discriminate carcasses from animals fed different diets.

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A-1 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program

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Positron emission tomography with [18F] fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG-PET) plays a well-established role in assisting early detection of frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD). Here, we examined the impact of intensity normalization to different reference areas on accuracy of FDG-PET to discriminate between patients with mild FTLD and healthy elderly subjects. FDG-PET was conducted at two centers using different acquisition protocols: 41 FTLD patients and 42 controls were studied at center 1, 11 FTLD patients and 13 controls were studied at center 2. All PET images were intensity normalized to the cerebellum, primary sensorimotor cortex (SMC), cerebral global mean (CGM), and a reference cluster with most preserved FDG uptake in the aforementioned patients group of center 1. Metabolic deficits in the patient group at center 1 appeared 1.5, 3.6, and 4.6 times greater in spatial extent, when tracer uptake was normalized to the reference cluster rather than to the cerebellum, SMC, and CGM, respectively. Logistic regression analyses based on normalized values from FTLD-typical regions showed that at center 1, cerebellar, SMC, CGM, and cluster normalizations differentiated patients from controls with accuracies of 86%, 76%, 75% and 90%, respectively. A similar order of effects was found at center 2. Cluster normalization leads to a significant increase of statistical power in detecting early FTLD-associated metabolic deficits. The established FTLD-specific cluster can be used to improve detection of FTLD on a single case basis at independent centers - a decisive step towards early diagnosis and prediction of FTLD syndromes enabling specific therapies in the future.

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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

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Accurate detection of subpopulation size determinations in bimodal populations remains problematic yet it represents a powerful way by which cellular heterogeneity under different environmental conditions can be compared. So far, most studies have relied on qualitative descriptions of population distribution patterns, on population-independent descriptors, or on arbitrary placement of thresholds distinguishing biological ON from OFF states. We found that all these methods fall short of accurately describing small population sizes in bimodal populations. Here we propose a simple, statistics-based method for the analysis of small subpopulation sizes for use in the free software environment R and test this method on real as well as simulated data. Four so-called population splitting methods were designed with different algorithms that can estimate subpopulation sizes from bimodal populations. All four methods proved more precise than previously used methods when analyzing subpopulation sizes of transfer competent cells arising in populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas knackmussii B13. The methods' resolving powers were further explored by bootstrapping and simulations. Two of the methods were not severely limited by the proportions of subpopulations they could estimate correctly, but the two others only allowed accurate subpopulation quantification when this amounted to less than 25% of the total population. In contrast, only one method was still sufficiently accurate with subpopulations smaller than 1% of the total population. This study proposes a number of rational approximations to quantifying small subpopulations and offers an easy-to-use protocol for their implementation in the open source statistical software environment R.