Adaptive Mixture Modelling Metropolis Methods for Bayesian Analysis of Non-linear State-Space Models.

We describe a strategy for Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models involving batch analysis for inference on dynamic, latent state variables and fixed model parameters. The key innovation is a Metropolis-Hastings method for the time series of state variables based on sequential approximation of filtering and smoothing densities using normal mixtures. These mixtures are propagated through the non-linearities using an accurate, local mixture approximation method, and we use a regenerating procedure to deal with potential degeneracy of mixture components. This provides accurate, direct approximations to sequential filtering and retrospective smoothing distributions, and hence a useful construction of global Metropolis proposal distributions for simulation of posteriors for the set of states. This analysis is embedded within a Gibbs sampler to include uncertain fixed parameters. We give an example motivated by an application in systems biology. Supplemental materials provide an example based on a stochastic volatility model as well as MATLAB code.

Regulating the Ocean: Piracy and Protection along the East African Coast

From 2008-2012, a dramatic upsurge in incidents of maritime piracy in the Western Indian Ocean led to renewed global attention to this region: including the deployment of multi national naval patrols, attempts to prosecute suspected pirates, and the development of financial interdiction systems to track and stop the flow of piracy ransoms. Largely seen as the maritime ripple effect of anarchy on land, piracy has been slotted into narratives of state failure and problems of governance and criminality in this region.

This view fails to account for a number of factors that were crucial in making possible the unprecedented rise of Somali piracy and its contemporary transformation. Instead of an emphasis on failed states and crises of governance, my dissertation approaches maritime piracy within a historical and regional configuration of actors and relationships that precede this round of piracy and will outlive it. The story I tell in this work begins before the contemporary upsurge of piracy and closes with a foretaste of the itineraries beyond piracy that are being crafted along the East African coast.

Beginning in the world of port cities in the long nineteenth century, my dissertation locates piracy and the relationship between trade, plunder, and state formation within worlds of exchange, including European incursions into this oceanic space. Scholars of long distance trade have emphasized the sociality engendered through commerce and the centrality of idioms of trust and kinship in structuring mercantile relationships across oceanic divides. To complement this scholarship, my work brings into view the idiom of protection: as a claim to surety, a form of tax, and a moral claim to authority in trans-regional commerce.

To build this theory of protection, my work combines archival sources with a sustained ethnographic engagement in coastal East Africa, including the pirate ports of Northern Somalia, and focuses on the interaction between land-based pastoral economies and maritime trade. This connection between land and sea calls attention to two distinct visions of the ocean: one built around trade and mobility and the other built on the ocean as a space of extraction and sovereignty. Moving between historical encounters over trade and piracy and the development of a national maritime economy during the height of the Somali state, I link the contemporary upsurge of maritime piracy to the confluence of these two conceptualizations of the ocean and the ideas of capture, exchange, and redistribution embedded within them.

The second section of my dissertation reframes piracy as an economy of protection and a form of labor implicated within other legal and illegal economies in the Indian Ocean. Based on extensive field research, including interviews with self-identified pirates, I emphasize the forms of labor, value, and risk that characterize piracy as an economy of protection. The final section of my dissertation focuses on the diverse international, regional, and local responses to maritime piracy. This section locates the response to piracy within a post-Cold War and post-9/11 global order and longer attempts to regulate and assuage the risks of maritime trade. Through an ethnographic focus on maritime insurance markets, navies, and private security contractors, I analyze the centrality of protection as a calculation of risk and profit in the contemporary economy of counter-piracy.

Through this focus on longer histories of trade, empire, and regulation my dissertation reframes maritime piracy as an economy of protection straddling boundaries of land and sea, legality and illegality, law and economy, and history and anthropology.

Mapping the structure of perceptual and visual-motor abilities in healthy young adults.

The ability to quickly detect and respond to visual stimuli in the environment is critical to many human activities. While such perceptual and visual-motor skills are important in a myriad of contexts, considerable variability exists between individuals in these abilities. To better understand the sources of this variability, we assessed perceptual and visual-motor skills in a large sample of 230 healthy individuals via the Nike SPARQ Sensory Station, and compared variability in their behavioral performance to demographic, state, sleep and consumption characteristics. Dimension reduction and regression analyses indicated three underlying factors: Visual-Motor Control, Visual Sensitivity, and Eye Quickness, which accounted for roughly half of the overall population variance in performance on this battery. Inter-individual variability in Visual-Motor Control was correlated with gender and circadian patters such that performance on this factor was better for males and for those who had been awake for a longer period of time before assessment. The current findings indicate that abilities involving coordinated hand movements in response to stimuli are subject to greater individual variability, while visual sensitivity and occulomotor control are largely stable across individuals.

Discovering keys to explain social policies within the social and democratic rule-of-law sate

There is a collective worldview on social policies that is expressed and understood by university professionals. However, it takes students time to construct this knowledge. Here, we provide fundamental ideas and a dynamic to facilitate learning of social policies. The preparation of a brief dictionary of significant terms is to be constructed as a group, alongside the maieutic work to be carried out by the teacher. The goal is to discover keys to understand the meaning of social policies and the underlying values that sustain a social and democratic rule-of-law state such as the one proposed in the Spanish Constitution of 1978. Attention is focused on the structure of the mixed welfare state. This is an integral proposal and comprises three dimensions. First, it considers the state and its possible welfare agents: business, market, the Church and civil society. The attitudes with which universal and inclusive social action is promoted, breaking radically with the aid-based meaning contained in other systems, are then addressed. Finally, we examine human dignity as a principle and aim of intervention, a basis for understanding other concepts such as human, social, labour and political rights. It is to be hoped that these pages prove useful for both teaching staff and students.

Developing Creative Solutions to the Problems of Children and their Families: Communicative Reason and the use fo Forum Theatre

Building on Habermas’s conceptualisation of modes of reasoning, the authors proposed that an application of critical theory to the present bureaucratised nature of communication between state representatives and welfare recipients (Howe 1992) might open up ways in which social workers could reconceptualise their practice. In a subsequent edition of this journal, three of the present authors introduced the radical theatre of Augusto Boal as a methodology which might provide an expressive route for social workers seeking to build a practice combining the intellectual analysis of critical theory with new ways of working (Spratt et al. 2000). Boal’s method recognises the oppressed status of groups who come to the attention of agents of the state and, through the use of a range of theatrical techniques, introduces strategies to facilitate the conscious recognition of such collective oppressions and develop dialogical ways to address them. In the last paper, the authors presented one such technique, ‘image theatre’, and demonstrated its use with social workers in consciousness raising and developing strategies for collective action.

Quantum teleportation via mixed two-mode squeezed states in the coherent-state representation

Quantum teleportation for continuous variables is generally described in phase space by using the Wigner functions. We study quantum teleportation via a mixed two-mode squeezed state in Hilbert-Schmidt space by using the coherent-state representation and operators. This shows directly how the teleported state is related to the original state.

The reform of Welfare Regimes in Costa Rica, Chile, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay

The aim of this article is to analyze the social policy in Latin America in a context of emerging welfare states. To understand the changes one takes into consideration the theories about institutional reform and the transformations produced in the XX century and the beginning of the XXI to substitute a social security regime mainly based on segmentation of benefi ts and on programs to fi ght poverty by another with an institutional and redistributive nature. The paper pays attention in particular to the path of the most developed welfare states of Latin America: Costa Rica, Chile, Argentina, Brasil y Uruguay.

Welfare Regimes and “progressive” governments in Latin America: The cases of Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia

Several authors have applied the concept of Welfare Regimens for studying social policy in Latin America (Esping-Andersen, 1993 and 2000). Among others, Martínez Franzoni (2007) develops a typology, with fi eld work is at the turn of the millennium, and establishes three categories: State-productivist regime, state-protectionist and family orientated. Most countries in the region are placed in the latter category. The hypothesis of this article argues that with the emergence of governments considered “left” or “progressive” in several countries of the region from the late ‘90s and, more decisively, in 2000’, the map of welfare regimes models could have mutated substantively. The nationally transformative experiences are different (various socio-economic realities and political action in which they are located exists) but they have several contact points that can be summarized in a greater state intervention in different areas previously closed to their operating and recovery of important functions of welfare and care of the population by the government. The paper discusses with an exploratory and descriptive approach the welfare schemes that would shape in three countries that have constitutionalized the change from the neoliberal paradigm: Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador.

On the origin of the forward peak and backward oscillations in the F + H2(v = 0) to HF(v' = 2) + H reaction

We present a semiclassical complex angular momentum (CAM) analysis of the forward scattering peak which occurs at a translational collision energy around 32 meV in the quantum mechanical calculations for the F + H2(v = 0, j = 0) ? HF(v' = 2, j' = 0) + H reaction on the Stark–Werner potential energy surface. The semiclassical CAM theory is modified to cover the forward and backward scattering angles. The peak is shown to result from constructive/destructive interference of the two Regge states associated with two resonances, one in the transition state region and the other in the exit channel van der Waals well. In addition, we demonstrate that the oscillations in the energy dependence of the backward differential cross section are caused by the interference between the direct backward scattering and the decay of the two resonance complexes returning to the backward direction after one full rotation.

Measurement of Quenching Coefficients and Developement of Calibration Methods for Quantitative Spectroscopy of Plasma at Elevated Pressures

Measurements of collisional de-excitation (quenching) coefficients required for the interpretation of emission and fluorescence spectroscopic measurements are reported. Particular attention is turned on argon transitions which are of interest for actinometric determinations of atomic ground state populations and on fluorescence lines originating from excited atoms and noble gases in connection with two-photon excitation (TALIF) of atomic radicals. A novel method is described which allows to infer quenching coefficients for collisions with molecular hydrogen of noble gas states in the energy range up to 24 eV. The excitation is performed in these experiments by collisions of energetic electrons in the sheath of an RF excited hydrogen plasma during the field reversal phase which lasts about 10 ns. We describe in addition a calibration method - including quenching effects - for the determination by TALIF of absolute atomic radical densities of hydrogen, nitrogen and oxygen using two-photon resonances in noble gases close by the resonances of the species mentioned. The paper closes with first ideas on a novel technique to bypass quenching effects in TALIF by introducing an additional, controllable loss by photoionization that will allow quenching-free determination of absolute atomic densities with prevalent nanosecond laser systems in situations where collisional de-excitation dominates over spontaneous emission.

Mechanical behaviour of unsaturated kaolin (with isotropic and anisotropic stress history). Part 1: wetting and compression behaviour

Over the last 40 years considerable progress has been made in understanding the complex behaviour of unsaturated soils. Research using constitutive modelling has extended the critical state framework and the concept of yielding in saturated soils to encompass unsaturated soils experiencing suction. However, validation testing of the framework for unsaturated soils has shown disagreement with the basic propositions. The main reason for this disparity is the anisotropic properties of the soil specimens tested as a result of preparation using one-dimensional compaction. The paper describes the detailed testing carried out to justify this statement. As part of the work presented, samples of unsaturated kaolin were prepared using isotropic compression. The suctions in these samples were reduced to predefined values by wetting under low isotropic loading. The pore size distributions, the pressure–volume relationships and yielding under subsequent isotropic loading are compared with tests on samples prepared by statically compressing kaolin into a one-dimensional compaction mould. The anisotropically compressed samples had initial water contents and specific volumes similar to those of the isotropically prepared samples and were also tested under reducing suctions; they exhibited distinctly different behaviour when tested under similar conditions. The results obtained from the isotropically prepared and tested samples have shown, probably for the first time, the existence of a unique normal compression surface that is not dependent on the initial conditions of the samples. The shape of the loading–collapse (LC) yield locus is shown to be different from the generally accepted form.

Mechanical behaviour of unsaturated kaolin (with isotropic and anisotropic stress history). Part 2: performance under shear loading

Validation of a framework for unsaturated soil behaviour has frequently resulted in disagreement with basic propositions. A primary reason for this disparity is considered to be attributable to the anisotropic properties of the soil specimens tested as a result of preparation using one-dimensional compaction. As part of the work presented, comparison is made between tests on samples of unsaturated kaolin prepared at identical specific volumes and specific water volumes using isotropic compression and one-dimensional compression. The suctions in the samples were reduced to predefined values by wetting under low isotropic loading in a triaxial cell. The samples were then taken through various stress paths to failure, defined as the critical state strength, while the suctions were held constant. Stress path tests were also performed on samples without reducing the suction to predefined values. In the latter, constant water mass tests, the suctions were allowed to vary and were measured using a psychrometer. The results of the tests at critical state are compared with the propositions of Wheeler and Sivakumar. The shear strengths of samples with isotropic previous history are shown to be significantly greater than those of samples with one-dimensional stress history when plotted against the mean net stress. The normal compression lines, critical state lines and yield characteristics are also shown to be significantly influenced by the previous stress history and are shown to be different for isotropically and one-dimensionally prepared samples.