Previsão em tempo atual de cheias com uso de sistema especialista difuso

Sistemas de previsão de cheias podem ser adequadamente utilizados quando o alcance é suficiente, em comparação com o tempo necessário para ações preventivas ou corretivas. Além disso, são fundamentalmente importantes a confiabilidade e a precisão das previsões. Previsões de níveis de inundação são sempre aproximações, e intervalos de confiança não são sempre aplicáveis, especialmente com graus de incerteza altos, o que produz intervalos de confiança muito grandes. Estes intervalos são problemáticos, em presença de níveis fluviais muito altos ou muito baixos. Neste estudo, previsões de níveis de cheia são efetuadas, tanto na forma numérica tradicional quanto na forma de categorias, para as quais utiliza-se um sistema especialista baseado em regras e inferências difusas. Metodologias e procedimentos computacionais para aprendizado, simulação e consulta são idealizados, e então desenvolvidos sob forma de um aplicativo (SELF – Sistema Especialista com uso de Lógica “Fuzzy”), com objetivo de pesquisa e operação. As comparações, com base nos aspectos de utilização para a previsão, de sistemas especialistas difusos e modelos empíricos lineares, revelam forte analogia, apesar das diferenças teóricas fundamentais existentes. As metodologias são aplicadas para previsão na bacia do rio Camaquã (15543 km2), para alcances entre 10 e 48 horas. Dificuldades práticas à aplicação são identificadas, resultando em soluções as quais constituem-se em avanços do conhecimento e da técnica. Previsões, tanto na forma numérica quanto categorizada são executadas com sucesso, com uso dos novos recursos. As avaliações e comparações das previsões são feitas utilizandose um novo grupo de estatísticas, derivadas das freqüências simultâneas de ocorrência de valores observados e preditos na mesma categoria, durante a simulação. Os efeitos da variação da densidade da rede são analisados, verificando-se que sistemas de previsão pluvio-hidrométrica em tempo atual são possíveis, mesmo com pequeno número de postos de aquisição de dados de chuva, para previsões sob forma de categorias difusas.

Sobre o sistema de amortização linear crescente

Aiming to reach a compromise solution to the issues of default risk and the payment capacity of takers of housing loans, Jorge Oscar de Mello Flôres submited to the Banco Nacional de Habitação, which was then in charge of the Brazilian System of Housing Financing, what he named as the Linearly Increasing System of Amortization. (LISA). Following a critical analysis of the LISA, it is proposed the alternative named as the Generalyzed System of Mixed Amortization (GSMA).

Modelos dinâmicos e simulação estocástica

This paper presents new methodology for making Bayesian inference about dy~ o!s for exponential famiIy observations. The approach is simulation-based _~t> use of ~vlarkov chain Monte Carlo techniques. A yletropolis-Hastings i:U~UnLlllll 1::; combined with the Gibbs sampler in repeated use of an adjusted version of normal dynamic linear models. Different alternative schemes are derived and compared. The approach is fully Bayesian in obtaining posterior samples for state parameters and unknown hyperparameters. Illustrations to real data sets with sparse counts and missing values are presented. Extensions to accommodate for general distributions for observations and disturbances. intervention. non-linear models and rnultivariate time series are outlined.

Analysis of the four wave mixing effect (FWM) in a dispersion decreasing fiber (DDF) for a WDM system

We did a numerical investigation of the propagation of short light pulses in the region of 1.55 mu m and the conversion efficiency (CE) for the four wave mixing generation (FWM) of ordinary and dispersion decreasing fibers for use in wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) systems, Our simulations studies three different profiles, linear, hyperbolic. and constant, One conclude that for all the profiles there is decrease of the conversion efficiency with the increase in the channel separation. The hyperbolic profile present a higher efficiency of around 1000 above in magnitude compared with the others profiles at 0.2 nm of channel separation. We calculate the conversion efficiency versus the fiber length for the three profiles. The conversion efficiency for the hyperbolic profile is higher when compared to the constant and linear profiles. The other interesting point of the hyperbolic profile is that the increase of the CE in the beginning of the fiber does not show my oscillation in the CE value (log eta), which was observed for the constant and linear profiles. For all the profiles there is an increase of the conversion efficiency with the increase of the pump power. The compression factor C-i for the generated FWM signal at omega(3) was measured along the DDF's and the constant profile fibers. One can conclude that with the use of decreasing dispersion profile (DDF) fibers one can have a control of the (CE) conversion efficiency and the compression factor of the four wave mixing (FWM) generation in WDM systems. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

H-infinity control design for time-delay linear systems: a rational transfer function based approach

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Origem física das curvas sigmoidais respiratórias pressão-volume: recrutamento alveolar e elasticidade não-linear

An important unsolved problem in medical science concerns the physical origin of the sigmoidal shape of pressure volume curves of healthy (and some unhealthy) lungs. Such difficulties are expected because the lung, which is the most important structure in the respiratory system, is extremely complex. Its rheological properties are unknown and seem to depend on phenomena occurring from the alveolar scale up to the thoracic scale. Conventional wisdom holds that linear response, i.e., Hooke s law, together with alveolar overdistention, play a dominant role in respiration, but such assumptions cannot explainthe crucial empirical sigmoidal shape of the curves. In this doctorate thesis, we propose an alternative theory to solve this problem, based on the alveolar recruitment together with the nonlinear elasticity of the alveoli. This theory suggests that recruitment may be the predominant factor shaping these curves in the entire range of pressures normally employed in experiments. The proposed model correctly predicts the observed sigmoidal pressure volume curves, allowing us to discuss adequately the importance of this result, as well as its implications for medical practice

Root system of Panicum maximum Jacq. cv. IPR-86 Mil(e)over-capnio fertilized with nitrogen and submitted to rotational stocking

The effect of nitrogen on the root system of the species Panicum maximum Jacq. cv. IPR-86 Mil (e) over cap nio, under grazing, was evaluated. The N rates were 0; 150; 300 and 450 kg/ha. year. The root density was evaluated during pregrazing at five years of successive N application, in three depths (0-10; 10-20 and 20-40 cm) and the root growth at 7, 14, 21, and 35 days after grazing. The grazing method adopted was rotational stocking. Root length and root mass densities in pre-and post-grazing presented maximum values at rates 204, 206, 192, and 197 kg/ha of N, respectively. The root growth (in root length density) increased, on average, until 29 days after grazing at rates 0, 150, and 300 kg/ha; at 450 kg/ha N rate, the increase was linear. Independently of N rates, around 60 and 25% of IPR-86 Mil (e) over cap nio cultivar root system was concentrated in 0-10 and 10-20 cm depth, respectively.

Análise não-linear de treliças pelo método dos elementos finitos posicional

This work presents the positional nonlinear geometric formulation for trusses using different strain measures. The positional formulation presents an alternative approach for nonlinear problems. This formulation considers nodal positions as variables of the nonlinear system instead of displacements (widely found in literature). The work also describes the arc-length method used for tracing equilibrium paths with snap-through and snap-back. Numerical applications for trusses already established in the literature and comparisons with other studies are provided to prove the accuracy of the proposed formulation

Identificação não linear usando uma rede fuzzy wavelet neural network modificada

In last decades, neural networks have been established as a major tool for the identification of nonlinear systems. Among the various types of networks used in identification, one that can be highlighted is the wavelet neural network (WNN). This network combines the characteristics of wavelet multiresolution theory with learning ability and generalization of neural networks usually, providing more accurate models than those ones obtained by traditional networks. An extension of WNN networks is to combine the neuro-fuzzy ANFIS (Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System) structure with wavelets, leading to generate the Fuzzy Wavelet Neural Network - FWNN structure. This network is very similar to ANFIS networks, with the difference that traditional polynomials present in consequent of this network are replaced by WNN networks. This paper proposes the identification of nonlinear dynamical systems from a network FWNN modified. In the proposed structure, functions only wavelets are used in the consequent. Thus, it is possible to obtain a simplification of the structure, reducing the number of adjustable parameters of the network. To evaluate the performance of network FWNN with this modification, an analysis of network performance is made, verifying advantages, disadvantages and cost effectiveness when compared to other existing FWNN structures in literature. The evaluations are carried out via the identification of two simulated systems traditionally found in the literature and a real nonlinear system, consisting of a nonlinear multi section tank. Finally, the network is used to infer values of temperature and humidity inside of a neonatal incubator. The execution of such analyzes is based on various criteria, like: mean squared error, number of training epochs, number of adjustable parameters, the variation of the mean square error, among others. The results found show the generalization ability of the modified structure, despite the simplification performed

Transferência de calor transiente na agitação linear intermitente de latas

Foi estudada a transferência de calor transiente na agitação linear e intermitente (ALI) de embalagens metálicas contendo simulantes de alimentos, objetivando-se sua aplicação em processos de pasteurização ou esterilização e conseqüentes tratamentos térmicos mais eficientes, homogêneos e com produto de melhor qualidade. Foram utilizados quatro meios fluidos simulantes de alimentos de diferentes viscosidades e massas específicas: três óleos e água. Foram combinados efeitos de cinco tratamentos, sendo: meio simulante (4 níveis), espaço livre (3 níveis), freqüência de agitação (4 níveis), amplitude de agitação (2 níveis) e posição das latas (4 níveis). Os ensaios de aquecimento e resfriamento foram feitos em tanque com água à temperatura de 98 °C e 17-20 °C, respectivamente. Com os dados de penetração de calor em cada experimento, foram calculados os parâmetros de penetração de calor fh, jh, fc e jc. Os resultados foram modelados utilizando-se grupos de números adimensionais e expressos em termos de Nusselt, Prandtl, Reynolds e funções trigonométricas (com medidas de amplitude e freqüência de agitação, espaço livre e dimensões da embalagem). Foram estabelecidas as duas Equações gerais para as fases de aquecimento e resfriamento: Nu = ReA 0,199.Pr 0,288.sen(xa/AM)0,406.cos(xf/FA) 1,039.cos((xf/FA).(EL/H).p) 4,556 Aquecimento Nu = 0,1295.ReA 0,047.Pr 0,193.sen(xa/AM)0,114.cos(xf/FA) 0,641.cos((xf/FA).(EL/H).p) 2,476 Resfriamento O processo de ALI pode ser aplicado em pasteurizadores ou autoclaves estáticas horizontais e verticais, com modificações simples. Concluiu-se que a ALI aumenta significativamente a taxa de transferência de calor, tanto no aquecimento como no resfriamento.

Distribuição da carga hidráulica em linhas de derivação otimizadas por programação linear

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Controlador preditivo não linear aplicado ao controle de golfadas em processos de produção de petróleo

Slugging is a well-known slugging phenomenon in multiphase flow, which may cause problems such as vibration in pipeline and high liquid level in the separator. It can be classified according to the place of its occurrence. The most severe, known as slugging in the riser, occurs in the vertical pipe which feeds the platform. Also known as severe slugging, it is capable of causing severe pressure fluctuations in the flow of the process, excessive vibration, flooding in separator tanks, limited production, nonscheduled stop of production, among other negative aspects that motivated the production of this work . A feasible solution to deal with this problem would be to design an effective method for the removal or reduction of the system, a controller. According to the literature, a conventional PID controller did not produce good results due to the high degree of nonlinearity of the process, fueling the development of advanced control techniques. Among these, the model predictive controller (MPC), where the control action results from the solution of an optimization problem, it is robust, can incorporate physical and /or security constraints. The objective of this work is to apply a non-conventional non-linear model predictive control technique to severe slugging, where the amount of liquid mass in the riser is controlled by the production valve and, indirectly, the oscillation of flow and pressure is suppressed, while looking for environmental and economic benefits. The proposed strategy is based on the use of the model linear approximations and repeatedly solving of a quadratic optimization problem, providing solutions that improve at each iteration. In the event where the convergence of this algorithm is satisfied, the predicted values of the process variables are the same as to those obtained by the original nonlinear model, ensuring that the constraints are satisfied for them along the prediction horizon. A mathematical model recently published in the literature, capable of representing characteristics of severe slugging in a real oil well, is used both for simulation and for the project of the proposed controller, whose performance is compared to a linear MPC

Spray layer-by-layer films based on phospholipid vesicles aiming sensing application via e-tongue system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Stochastic stability for Markovian jump linear systems associated with a finite number of jump times

This paper deals with a stochastic stability concept for discrete-time Markovian jump linear systems. The random jump parameter is associated to changes between the system operation modes due to failures or repairs, which can be well described by an underlying finite-state Markov chain. In the model studied, a fixed number of failures or repairs is allowed, after which, the system is brought to a halt for maintenance or for replacement. The usual concepts of stochastic stability are related to pure infinite horizon problems, and are not appropriate in this scenario. A new stability concept is introduced, named stochastic tau-stability that is tailored to the present setting. Necessary and sufficient conditions to ensure the stochastic tau-stability are provided, and the almost sure stability concept associated with this class of processes is also addressed. The paper also develops equivalences among second order concepts that parallels the results for infinite horizon problems. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Crystallization study of the (1-x)Sb2O3-(x)SbPO4 glass system

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)