The international impact of productivity shocks

Even though many studies have confirmed the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) finding that savings and investment rates are highly correlated, there is no consensus on the major reason for this correlation. The purpose of this dissertation is to develop theoretical models and calibrate and simulate these to compare their implications to explain the observed time-series comovement between savings and investment in an attempt to show that this high correlation may stem from technological shocks.^ The dissertation is comprised of three studies. The first two studies construct overlapping-generations, two-economy models of saving and investment under conditions of perfect international capital mobility. The second study differs from the first by endogenizing the labor supply. Employing simulations, the models are used to generate time-series for savings and investment. These are then compared with the actual data for specific economies. The models show that productivity shocks produce a high correlation between savings and investment. Further, while the model with exogenous labor supply displays monotonic adjustment, the economy with endogenous labor supply adjusts cyclically.^ The third model, on the other hand, constructs a general equilibrium model for a small open economy. The study is based on two important elements: adjustment costs in investment and endogenous, recursive time preferences. Again, the simulation results show that the model generates, at least in a significant part of the adjustment path, a positive correlation between domestic savings and investment in response to a supply shock. ^

Essays on political economy

The first chapter analizes conditional assistance programs. They generate conflicting relationships between international financial institutions (IFIs) and member countries. The experience of IFIs with conditionality in the 1990s led them to allow countries more latitude in the design of their reform programs. A reformist government does not need conditionality and it is useless if it does not want to reform. A government that faces opposition may use conditionality and the help of pro-reform lobbies as a lever to counteract anti-reform groups and succeed in implementing reforms.^ The second chapter analizes economies saddled with taxes and regulations. I consider an economy in which many taxes, subsidies, and other distortionary restrictions are in place simultaneously. If I start from an inefficient laissez-faire equilibrium because of some domestic distortion, a small trade tax or subsidy can yield a first-order welfare improvement, even if the instrument itself creates distortions of its own. This may result in "welfare paradoxes". The purpose of the chapter is to quantify the welfare effects of changes in tax rates in a small open economy. I conduct the simulation in the context of an intertemporal utility maximization framework. I apply numerical methods to the model developed by Karayalcin. I introduce changes in the tax rates and quantify both the impact on welfare, consumption and foreign assets, and the path to the new steady-state values.^ The third chapter studies the role of stock markets and adjustment costs in the international transmission of supply shocks. The analysis of the transmission of a positive supply shock that originates in one of the countries shows that on impact the shock leads to an inmediate stock market boom enjoying the technological advance, while the other country suffers from depress stock market prices as demand for its equity declines. A period of adjustment begins culminating in a steady state capital and output level that is identical to the one before the shock. The the capital stock of one country undergoes a non-monotonic adjustment. The model is tested with plausible values of the variables and the numeric results confirm the predictions of the theory.^

Essays On Political Economy

The first chapter analizes conditional assistance programs. They generate conflicting relationships between international financial institutions (IFIs) and member countries. The experience of IFIs with conditionality in the 1990s led them to allow countries more latitude in the design of their reform programs. A reformist government does not need conditionality and it is useless if it does not want to reform. A government that faces opposition may use conditionality and the help of pro-reform lobbies as a lever to counteract anti-reform groups and succeed in implementing reforms. The second chapter analizes economies saddled with taxes and regulations. I consider an economy in which many taxes, subsidies, and other distortionary restrictions are in place simultaneously. If I start from an inefficient laissez-faire equilibrium because of some domestic distortion, a small trade tax or subsidy can yield a first-order welfare improvement, even if the instrument itself creates distortions of its own. This may result in "welfare paradoxes". The purpose of the chapter is to quantify the welfare effects of changes in tax rates in a small open economy. I conduct the simulation in the context of an intertemporal utility maximization framework. I apply numerical methods to the model developed by Karayalcin. I introduce changes in the tax rates and quantify both the impact on welfare, consumption and foreign assets, and the path to the new steady-state values. The third chapter studies the role of stock markets and adjustment costs in the international transmission of supply shocks. The analysis of the transmission of a positive supply shock that originates in one of the countries shows that on impact the shock leads to an inmediate stock market boom enjoying the technological advance, while the other country suffers from depress stock market prices as demand for its equity declines. A period of adjustment begins culminating in a steady state capital and output level that is identical to the one before the shock. The the capital stock of one country undergoes a non-monotonic adjustment. The model is tested with plausible values of the variables and the numeric results confirm the predictions of the theory.

International Capital Flows and Monetary Policy Spillovers

This dissertation examines the drivers and implications of international capital flows. The overarching motivation is the observation that countries not at the centre of global financial markets are subject to considerable spillovers from centre countries, notably from their monetary policy. I present new empirical evidence on the determinants of the observed patterns of international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, and study their effect on both financial markets and the real economy. In Chapter 2 I provide evidence on the determinants of a puzzling negative correlation observed between productivity growth and net capital inflows to developing and emerging market economies (EMEs) since 1980. By disaggregating net capital inflows into their gross components, I show that this negative correlation is explained by capital outflows related to purchases of very liquid assets from the fastest growing countries. My results suggest a desire for international portfolio diversification in liquid assets by fast growing countries is driving much of the original puzzle. In the reminder of my dissertation I pivot to study the foreign characteristics that drive international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, with a particular focus on the role of unconventional monetary policy in the United States (U.S.). In Chapter 3 I show that a significant portion of the heterogeneity in EMEs' asset price adjustment following the quantitative easing operations by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) during 2008-2014 can be explained by the degree of bilateral capital market frictions between these countries and the U.S. This is true even after accounting for capital controls, exchange rate regimes, and domestic monetary policies. Chapter 4, co-authored with Michal Ksawery Popiel, studies unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy, looking specifically at the case of Canada since the global financial crisis. We quantify the effect Canadian unconventional monetary policy shocks had on the real economy, while carefully controlling for and quantifying spillovers from U.S. unconventional monetary policy. Our results indicate that the Bank of Canada's unconventional monetary policy increased Canadian output significantly from 2009-2010, but that spillovers from the Fed's policy were even more important for increasing Canadian output after 2008.

Molecular Characterization of Three Novel Phospholipase A2 Proteins from the Venom of Atheris chlorechis, Atheris nitschei and Atheris squamigera

Secretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2) is known as a major component of snake venoms and displays higher-order catalytic hydrolysis functions as well as a wide range of pathological effects. Atheris is not a notoriously dangerous genus of snakes although there are some reports of fatal cases after envenomation due to the effects of coagulation disturbances and hemorrhaging. Molecular characterization of Atheris venom enzymes is incomplete and there are only a few reports in the literature. Here, we report, for the first time, the cloning and characterization of three novel cDNAs encoding phospholipase A2 precursors (one each) from the venoms of the Western bush viper (Atheris chlorechis), the Great Lakes bush viper (Atheris nitschei) and the Variable bush viper (Atheris squamigera), using a “shotgun cloning” strategy. Open-reading frames of respective cloned cDNAs contained putative 16 residue signal peptides and mature proteins composed of 121 to 123 amino acid residues. Alignment of mature protein sequences revealed high degrees of structural conservation and identity with Group II venom PLA2 proteins from other taxa within the Viperidae. Reverse-phase High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) profiles of these three snake venoms were obtained separately and chromatographic fractions were assessed for phospholipase activity using an egg yolk suspension assay. The molecular masses of mature proteins were all identified as approximately 14 kDa. Mass spectrometric analyses of the fractionated oligopeptides arising from tryptic digestion of intact venom proteins, was performed for further structural characterization.

A Sustainable Century? Genuine Savings in developing and developed countries, 1900-2000

This chapter traces the long-run development of Genuine Savings (GS) using a panel of eleven countries during the twentieth century. This panel covers a number of developed countries (Great Britain, Germany, Switzerland, France, the US, and Australia) as well as a set of resource-abundant countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico). These countries represent approximately 50 percent of the world’s output in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 1950, and include large economies and small open economies, and resource-rich and resource-scarce countries, thus allowing us to compare their historical experiences. Components of GS considered include physical and human capital as well as resource extraction and pollution damages. Generally, we find evidence of positive GS over the course of the twentieth century, although the two World Wars and the Great Depression left considerable marks. Also, we found striking differences between Latin American and developed countries when Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is included; this could be a signal of natural resource curse or technological gaps unnoticed in previous works.

Développement d'une méthode de prédiction de l'orientation et de l'insertion des protéines dans une membrane modèle

Les protéines membranaires intégrales jouent un rôle indispensable dans la survie des cellules et 20 à 30% des cadres de lectures ouverts codent pour cette classe de protéines. La majorité des protéines membranaires se trouvant sur la Protein Data Bank n’ont pas une orientation et une insertion connue. L’orientation, l’insertion et la conformation que les protéines membranaires ont lorsqu’elles interagissent avec une bicouche lipidique sont importantes pour la compréhension de leur fonction, mais ce sont des caractéristiques difficiles à obtenir par des méthodes expérimentales. Des méthodes computationnelles peuvent réduire le temps et le coût de l’identification des caractéristiques des protéines membranaires. Dans le cadre de ce projet de maîtrise, nous proposons une nouvelle méthode computationnelle qui prédit l’orientation et l’insertion d’une protéine dans une membrane. La méthode est basée sur les potentiels de force moyenne de l’insertion membranaire des chaînes latérales des acides aminés dans une membrane modèle composèe de dioléoylphosphatidylcholine.

Essays in International Finance and Macroeconomics

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Estudo do genoma do vírus causador da mionecrose infecciosa em camarões e desenvolvimento de métodos para detecção de polimorfismos

Shrimp farming is one of the activities that contribute most to the growth of global aquaculture. However, this business has undergone significant economic losses due to the onset of viral diseases such as Infectious Myonecrosis (IMN). The IMN is already widespread throughout Northeastern Brazil and affects other countries such as Indonesia, Thailand and China. The main symptom of disease is myonecrosis, which consists of necrosis of striated muscles of the abdomen and cephalothorax of shrimp. The IMN is caused by infectious myonecrosis virus (IMNV), a non-enveloped virus which has protrusions along its capsid. The viral genome consists of a single molecule of double-stranded RNA and has two Open Reading Frames (ORFs). The ORF1 encodes the major capsid protein (MCP) and a potential RNA binding protein (RBP). ORF2 encodes a probable RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) and classifies IMNV in Totiviridae family. Thus, the objective of this research was study the IMNV complete genome and encoded proteins in order to develop a system differentiate virus isolates based on polymorphisms presence. The phylogenetic relationship among some totivirus was investigated and showed a new group to IMNV within Totiviridae family. Two new genomes were sequenced, analyzed and compared to two other genomes already deposited in GenBank. The new genomes were more similar to each other than those already described. Conserved and variable regions of the genome were identified through similarity graphs and alignments using the four IMNV sequences. This analyze allowed mapping of polymorphic sites and revealed that the most variable region of the genome is in the first half of ORF1, which coincides with the regions that possibly encode the viral protrusion, while the most stable regions of the genome were found in conserved domains of proteins that interact with RNA. Moreover, secondary structures were predicted for all proteins using various softwares and protein structural models were calculated using threading and ab initio modeling approaches. From these analyses was possible to observe that the IMNV proteins have motifs and shapes similar to proteins of other totiviruses and new possible protein functions have been proposed. The genome and proteins study was essential for development of a PCR-based detection system able to discriminate the four IMNV isolates based on the presence of polymorphic sites

EL IMPACTO DE LA CRISIS ECONÓMICA MUNDIAL SOBRE LA ECONOMÍA COSTARRICENSE: los efectos macroeconómicos

ResumenLa economía costarricense es una economía pequeña pero muy abierta al exterior, por ello, lo que ocurre en el resto del mundo nos afecta de alguna manera. Cuando estalló la crisis en los Estados Unidos, sus repercusiones se hicieron notar poco a poco alrededor del mundo. En un principio el principal efecto sobre nuestro país se vio reflejado en la inflación, sin embargo, conforme transcurrió el tiempo los efectos saltaron al sector real de la economía, es decir, a la producción y al empleo. En este artículo se analizan los principales efectos que hasta el momento ha tenido la crisis económica mundial en nuestro país, entre ellos se mencionan, la inflación; el decrecimiento en la actividad económica de los sectores construcción, industria, comercio y hoteles, principalmente; la caída en el turismo, las remesas, la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED), las exportaciones e importaciones y, por último, la reducción en el empleo.Abstract Costa Rican economy is a very small open economy; therefore, what happens in the rest of the world affects us in some way. When the crisis in the United States exploded, its impact was slowly evident around the world. At first, the main effect on our country was reflected in inflation; however, the effects were then clear on the real sector of the economy, i.e. production and employment. This article examines the main effects which so far have been the global economic crisis in our economy, including inflation, and the decline in the economic activity in the construction sector, industry, commerce and hotels, primarily; as well as the fall in tourism, remittances, Foreign Direct Investment, exports and imports, and finally the reduction in employment.

Is the supply of long-term debt independent of the term premia? Evidence from Portugal

An important assumption in the statistical analysis of the financial market effects of the central bank’s large scale asset purchase program is that the "long-term debt stock variables were exogenous to term premia". We test this assumption for a small open economy in a currency union over the period 2000M3 to 2015M10, via the determinants of short- term financing relative to long-term financing. Empirical estimations indicate that the maturity composition of debt does not respond to the level of interest rate or to the term structure. These findings suggest a lower adherence to the cost minimization mandate of debt management. However, we find that volatility and relative market size respectively decrease and increase short-term financing relative to long-term financing, while it decreases with an increase in government indebtedness.

Epigenetics and alternative splicing

Dissertação de Mestrado, Oncobiologia: Mecanismos Moleculares do Cancro, Departamento de Ciências Biomédicas e Medicina, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

A cautionary tale of two ‘tigers’: Industrial policy ‘lessons’ from Ireland and Hungary?

This paper draws industrial policy lessons for small Central and Eastern European states through a critical evaluation of recent Irish and Hungarian experiences. The paper outlines a ‘holistic view’ of industrial policy before exploring the experiences of the two economies. Whilst both have managed to ‘do’ policy well in some regards, substantial challenges remain in making FDI attraction the centrepiece of industrial policy, as has been highlighted recently. Overall, the paper suggests that wholesale emulation of the Irish and Hungarian approach is problematic for small open CEE states, and that more balanced approaches to development - and hence industrial policy – are warranted.

Green mitigation strategy for cultural heritage: bacterial potential for biocide production

Several biosurfactants with antagonistic activity are produced by a variety of microorganisms. Lipopeptides (LPPs) produced by some Bacillus strains, including surfactin, fengycin and iturin are synthesized nonribosomally by mega-peptide synthetase (NRPS) units and they are particularly relevant as antifungal agents. Characterisation, identification and evaluation of the potentials of several bacterial isolates were undertaken in order to establish the production of active lipopeptides against biodeteriogenic fungi from heritage assets. Analysis of the iturin operon revealed four open reading frames (ORFs) with the structural organisation of the peptide synthetases. Therefore, this work adopted a molecular procedure to access antifungal potential of LPP production by Bacillus strains in order to exploit the bioactive compounds synthesis as a green natural approach to be applied in biodegraded cultural heritage context. The results reveal that the bacterial strains with higher antifungal potential exhibit the same morphological and biochemical characteristics, belonging to the genera Bacillus. On the other hand, the higher iturinic genetic expression, for Bacillus sp. 3 and Bacillus sp. 4, is in accordance with the culture antifungal spectra. Accordingly, the adopted methodology combining antifungal screening and molecular data is represent a valuable tool for quick identification of iturin-producing strains, constituting an effective approach for confirming the selection of lipopeptides producer strains.

Modeling and Identification of an Open-frame Underwater Vehicle: The Yaw Motion Dynamics

A semi-autonomous unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV), named LAURS, is being developed at the Laboratory of Sensors and Actuators at the University of Sao Paulo. The vehicle has been designed to provide inspection and intervention capabilities in specific missions of deep water oil fields. In this work, a method of modeling and identification of yaw motion dynamic system model of an open-frame underwater vehicle is presented. Using an on-board low cost magnetic compass sensor the method is based on the utilization of an uncoupled 1-DOF (degree of freedom) dynamic system equation and the application of the integral method which is the classical least squares algorithm applied to the integral form of the dynamic system equations. Experimental trials with the actual vehicle have been performed in a test tank and diving pool. During these experiments, thrusters responsible for yaw motion are driven by sinusoidal voltage signal profiles. An assessment of the feasibility of the method reveals that estimated dynamic system models are more reliable when considering slow and small sinusoidal voltage signal profiles, i.e. with larger periods and with relatively small amplitude and offset.