Probability and statistics

Now in its sixth edition, the Traffic Engineering Handbook continues to be a must have publication in the transportation industry, as it has been for the past 60 years. The new edition provides updated information for people entering the practice and for those already practicing. The handbook is a convenient desk reference, as well as an all in one source of principles and proven techniques in traffic engineering. Most chapters are presented in a new format, which divides the chapters into four areas-basics, current practice, emerging trends and information sources. Chapter topics include road users, vehicle characteristics, statistics, planning for operations, communications, safety, regulations, traffic calming, access management, geometrics, signs and markings, signals, parking, traffic demand, maintenance and studies. In addition, as the focus in transportation has shifted from project based to operations based, two new chapters have been added-"Planning for Operations" and "Managing Traffic Demand to Address Congestion: Providing Travelers with Choices." The Traffic Engineering Handbook continues to be one of the primary reference sources for study to become a certified Professional Traffic Operations Engineer™. Chapters are authored by notable and experienced authors, and reviewed and edited by a distinguished panel of traffic engineering experts.

Towards the adoption of low-cost rail level crossing warning devices in regional areas of Australia : a review of current technologies and reliability issues

This paper discusses major obstacles for the adoption of low cost level crossing warning devices (LCLCWDs) in Australia and reviews those trialed in Australia and internationally. The argument for the use of LCLCWDs is that for a given investment, more passive level crossings can be treated, therefore increasing safety benefits across the rail network. This approach, in theory, reduces risk across the network by utilizing a combination of low-cost and conventional level crossing interventions, similar to what is done in the road environment. This paper concludes that in order to determine if this approach can produce better safety outcomes than the current approach, involving the incremental upgrade of level crossings with conventional interventions, it is necessary to perform rigorous risk assessments and cost-benefit analyses of LCLCWDs. Further research is also needed to determine how best to differentiate less reliable LCCLWDs from conventional warning devices through the use of different warning signs and signals. This paper presents a strategy for progressing research and development of LCLCWDs and details how the Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Rail Innovation is fulfilling this strategy through the current and future affordable level crossing projects.

Year 7 students’ approaches to understanding and solving NAPLAN numeracy problems

This study investigated how the interpretation of mathematical problems by Year 7 students impacted on their ability to demonstrate what they can do in NAPLAN numeracy testing. In the study, mathematics is viewed as a culturally and socially determined system of signs and signifiers that establish the meaning, origins and importance of mathematics. The study hypothesises that students are unable to succeed in NAPLAN numeracy tests because they cannot interpret the questions, even though they may be able to perform the necessary calculations. To investigate this, the study applied contemporary theories of literacy to the context of mathematical problem solving. A case study design with multiple methods was used. The study used a correlation design to explore the connections between NAPLAN literacy and numeracy outcomes of 198 Year 7 students in a Queensland school. Additionally, qualitative methods provided a rich description of the effect of the various forms of NAPLAN numeracy questions on the success of ten Year 7 students in the same school. The study argues that there is a quantitative link between reading and numeracy. It illustrates that interpretation (literacy) errors are the most common error type in the selected NAPLAN questions, made by students of all abilities. In contrast, conceptual (mathematical) errors are less frequent amongst more capable students. This has important implications in preparing students for NAPLAN numeracy tests. The study concluded by recommending that increased focus on the literacies of mathematics would be effective in improving NAPLAN results.

Gray matter deficits, mismatch negativity, and outcomes in schizophrenia

Reduced mismatch negativity (MMN) in response to auditory change is a well-established finding in schizophrenia and has been shown to be correlated with impaired daily functioning, rather than with hallmark signs and symptoms of the disorder. In this study, we investigated (1) whether the relationship between reduced MMN and impaired daily functioning is mediated by cortical volume loss in temporal and frontal brain regions in schizophrenia and (2) whether this relationship varies with the type of auditory deviant generating MMN. MMN in response to duration, frequency, and intensity deviants was recorded from 18 schizophrenia subjects and 18 pairwise age- and gender-matched healthy subjects. Patients’ levels of global functioning were rated on the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale. High-resolution structural magnetic resonance scans were acquired to generate average cerebral cortex and temporal lobe models using cortical pattern matching. This technique allows accurate statistical comparison and averaging of cortical measures across subjects, despite wide variations in gyral patterns. MMN amplitude was reduced in schizophrenia patients and correlated with their impaired day-to-day function level. Only in patients, bilateral gray matter reduction in Heschl’s gyrus, as well as motor and executive regions of the frontal cortex, correlated with reduced MMN amplitude in response to frequency deviants, while reduced gray matter in right Heschl’s gyrus also correlated with reduced MMN to duration deviants. Our findings further support the importance of MMN reduction in schizophrenia by linking frontotemporal cerebral gray matter pathology to an automatically generated event-related potential index of daily functioning.

Work zone items influencing driver speeds at roadworks: worker, driver and expert perspectives

Roadworks are essential to a safe and efficient road network, yet somewhat paradoxically the necessary work is often associated with increased risk to motorists and workers, as well as with traffic flow disruptions. A major source of increased crash risk at roadwork sites (work zones) is poor speed limit compliance. Speeding in work zones is examined in existing literature to the extent that major issues are known and some effective countermeasures are identified. However, as speeding remains a major problem in work zones, influences on driver behaviour arguably need to be better understood to achieve greater compliance and thus realise further gains in road safety. Current research on safety at Queensland roadwork sites has examined the views of workers, measured work zone speed profiles, and conducted an online survey of drivers (N=410). This paper focuses on survey participants’ ratings of 12 specific work zone items (including traffic control measures) in terms of their influence on speed choice. Repeated measures ANOVA revealed statistically significant differences (p<0.001) in the ratings of these items, with the most influential including visible presence of workers, visible police presence, and speed feedback displays. Those rated least influential included ’roadwork speed limits are enforced’ and ‘reduce speed’ signs and increased fines for speeding in work zones. The paper considers the alignment of these findings with those from other sources, including worker interviews and the literature, to provide a consolidated assessment of the influence of work zone items on driver speeds.

Promiscuity, pheromones and pathogenicity : why all Enterococci are not created equal

Enterococcus faecalis is a Gram-positive, coccus shaped, lactic acid bacterium, with demonstrated ubiquity across multiple anatomical sites. Enterococcus faecalis isolates have been isolated from clinical samples as the etiological agent in patients with overt infections, and from body sites previously thought to be sterile but absent of signs and symptoms of infection. E. faecalis is implicated in both human health and disease, recognized as a commensal, a probiotic and an opportunistic multiply resistant pathogen. E. faecalis has emerged as a key pathogen in nosocomial infections. E. faecalis is well equipped to avert recognition by host cell immune mediators. Antigenic cell wall components including lipotechoic acids are concealed from immune detection by capsular polysaccharides produced by some strains. Thereby preventing complement activation, the pro-inflammatory response, opsonisation and phagocytosis. E. faecalis also produces a suite of enzymes including gelatinase and cytolysin, which aid in both virulence and host immune evasion. The ability of enterococci to form biofilms in vivo further increases virulence, whilst simultaneously preventing detection by host cells. E. faecalis exhibits high levels of both intrinsic and acquired antimicrobial resistance. The mobility of the E. faecalis genome is a significant contributor to antimicrobial resistance, with this species also transferring resistance to other Gram-positive bacteria. Whilst E. faecalis is of increasing concern in nosocomial infections, its role as a member of the endogenous microbiota cannot be underestimated. As a commensal and probiotic, E. faecalis plays an integral role in modulating the immune response, and in providing endogenous antimicrobial activity to enhance exclusion or inhibition of opportunistic pathogens in certain anatomical niches. In this chapter we will review possible mediators of enterococcal transition from commensal microbe to opportunistic pathogen, considering isolates obtained from patients diagnosed with pathogenic infections and those obtained from asymptomatic patients.

Bicycle commuting and exposure to air pollution: A questionnaire-based investigation of perceptions, symptoms and risk management strategies

Background An increase in bicycle commuting participation may improve public health and traffic congestion in cities. Information on air pollution exposure (such as perception, symptoms and risk management) contributes to the responsible promotion of bicycle commuting participation. Methods To determine perceptions, symptoms and willingness for specific exposure risk management strategies of exposure to air pollution, a questionnaire-based cross-sectional investigation was conducted with adult bicycle commuters (n = 153; age = 41 ± 11 yr; 28% female). Results Frequency of acute respiratory signs and symptoms are positively-associated with in- and post-commute compared to pre-commute time periods (p < 0.05); greater positive-association is with respiratory disorder compared to healthy, and female compared to male, participants. The perception (although not signs or symptoms) of in-commute exposure to air pollution is positive-associated with the estimated level of in-commute proximity to motorised traffic. The majority of participants indicated a willingness (which varied with health status and gender) to adopt risk management strategies (with certain practical features) if shown to be appropriate and effective. Conclusions While acute signs and symptoms of air pollution exposure are indicated with bicycle commuting, and more so in susceptible individuals, there is willingness to manage exposure risk by adopting effective strategies with desirable features.

Changes in Beer Labels and their Meaning : A Holistic Approach to the Semiosic Process

The purpose of this study is to find a framework for a holistic approach to, and form a conceptual toolbox for, investigating changes in signs and in their interpretation. Charles S. Peirce s theory of signs in a communicative perspective is taken as a basis for the framework. The concern directing the study is the problem of a missing framework in analysing signs of visual artefacts from a holistic perspective as well as that of the missing conceptual tools. To discover the possibility of such a holistic approach to semiosic processes and to form a conceptual toolbox the following issues are discussed: i) how the many Objects with two aspects involved in Peirce s definition of sign-action, promote multiple semiosis arising from the same sign by the same Interpretant depending on the domination of the Objects; ii) in which way can the relation of the individual and society or group be made more apparent in the construction of the self since this construction is intertwined with the process of meaning-creation and interpretation; iii) how to account for the fundamental role of emotions in semiosis, and the relation of emotions with the often neglected topic of embodiment; iv) how to take into account the dynamic, mediating and processual nature of sign-action in analysing and understanding the changes in signs and in the interpretation of signs. An interdisciplinary approach is chosen for this dissertation. Concepts that developed within social psychology, developmental psychology, neurosciences and semiotics, are discussed. The common aspect of the approaches is that they in one way or another concentrate on mediation provided by signs in explaining human activity and cognition. The holistic approach and conceptual toolbox found are employed in a case study. This consists of an analysis of beer brands including a comparison of brands from two different cultures. It becomes clear that different theories and approaches have mutual affinities and do complement each other. In addition, the affinities in different disciplines somewhat provide credence to the various views. From the combined approach described, it becomes apparent that by the semiosic process, the emerging semiotic self intertwined with the Umwelt, including emotions, can be described. Seeing the interpretation and meaning-making through semiosis allows for the analysis of groups, taking into account the embodied and emotional component. It is concluded that emotions have a crucial role in all human activity, including so-called reflective thinking, and that emotions and embodiment should be consciously taken into account in analysing signs, the interpretation, and in changes of signs and interpretations from both the social and individual level. The analysis of the beer labels expresses well the intertwined nature of the relationship between signs, individual consumers and society. Many direct influences from society on the label design are found, and also some indirect attitude changes that become apparent from magazines, company reports, etc. In addition, the analysis brings up the issues of the unifying tendency of the visual artefacts of different cultures, but also demonstrates that the visual artefacts are able to hold the local signs and meanings, and sometimes are able to represent the local meanings although the signs have changed in the unifying process.

A retrospective study of Babesia macropus associated with morbidity and mortality in eastern grey kangaroos (Macropus giganteus) and agile wallabies (Macropus agilis)

This is a retrospective study of 38 cases of infection by Babesia macropus, associated with a syndrome of anaemia and debility in hand-reared or free-ranging juvenile eastern grey kangaroos (Macropus giganteus) from coastal New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland between 1995 and 2013. Infection with B. macropus is recorded for the first time in agile wallabies (Macropus agilis) from far north Queensland. Animals in which B. macropus infection was considered to be the primary cause of morbidity had marked anaemia, lethargy and neurological signs, and often died. In these cases, parasitised erythrocytes were few or undetectable in peripheral blood samples but were sequestered in large numbers within small vessels of visceral organs, particularly in the kidney and brain, associated with distinctive clusters of extraerythrocytic organisms. Initial identification of this piroplasm in peripheral blood smears and in tissue impression smears and histological sections was confirmed using transmission electron microscopy and molecular analysis. Samples of kidney, brain or blood were tested using PCR and DNA sequencing of the 18S ribosomal RNA and heat shock protein 70 gene using primers specific for piroplasms. The piroplasm detected in these samples had 100 sequence identity in the 18S rRNA region with the recently described Babesia macropus in two eastern grey kangaroos from New South Wales and Queensland, and a high degree of similarity to an unnamed Babesia sp. recently detected in three woylies (Bettongia penicillata ogilbyi) in Western Australia.

Clinical Studies on Epidural and Spinal Postoperative Analgesia : With Special Reference to Continuous Techniques of Administration and Adjuvant Drugs

Continuous epidural analgesia (CEA) and continuous spinal postoperative analgesia (CSPA) provided by a mixture of local anaesthetic and opioid are widely used for postoperative pain relief. E.g., with the introduction of so-called microcatheters, CSPA found its way particularly in orthopaedic surgery. These techniques, however, may be associated with dose-dependent side-effects as hypotension, weakness in the legs, and nausea and vomiting. At times, they may fail to offer sufficient analgesia, e.g., because of a misplaced catheter. The correct position of an epidural catheter might be confirmed by the supposedly easy and reliable epidural stimulation test (EST). The aims of this thesis were to determine a) whether the efficacy, tolerability, and reliability of CEA might be improved by adding the α2-adrenergic agonists adrenaline and clonidine to CEA, and by the repeated use of EST during CEA; and, b) the feasibility of CSPA given through a microcatheter after vascular surgery. Studies I IV were double-blinded, randomized, and controlled trials; Study V was of a diagnostic, prospective nature. Patients underwent arterial bypass surgery of the legs (I, n=50; IV, n=46), total knee arthroplasty (II, n=70; III, n=72), and abdominal surgery or thoracotomy (V, n=30). Postoperative lumbar CEA consisted of regular mixtures of ropivacaine and fentanyl either without or with adrenaline (2 µg/ml (I) and 4 µg/ml (II)) and clonidine (2 µg/ml (III)). CSPA (IV) was given through a microcatheter (28G) and contained either ropivacaine (max. 2 mg/h) or a mixture of ropivacaine (max. 1 mg/h) and morphine (max. 8 µg/h). Epidural catheter tip position (V) was evaluated both by EST at the moment of catheter placement and several times during CEA, and by epidurography as reference diagnostic test. CEA and CSPA were administered for 24 or 48 h. Study parameters included pain scores assessed with a visual analogue scale, requirements of rescue pain medication, vital signs, and side-effects. Adrenaline (I and II) had no beneficial influence as regards the efficacy or tolerability of CEA. The total amounts of epidurally-infused drugs were even increased in the adrenaline group in Study II (p=0.02, RM ANOVA). Clonidine (III) augmented pain relief with lowered amounts of epidurally infused drugs (p=0.01, RM ANOVA) and reduced need for rescue oxycodone given i.m. (p=0.027, MW-U; median difference 3 mg (95% CI 0 7 mg)). Clonidine did not contribute to sedation and its influence on haemodynamics was minimal. CSPA (IV) provided satisfactory pain relief with only limited blockade of the legs (no inter-group differences). EST (V) was often related to technical problems and difficulties of interpretation, e.g., it failed to identify the four patients whose catheters were outside the spinal canal already at the time of catheter placement. As adjuvants to lumbar CEA, clonidine only slightly improved pain relief, while adrenaline did not provide any benefit. The role of EST applied at the time of epidural catheter placement or repeatedly during CEA remains open. The microcatheter CSPA technique appeared effective and reliable, but needs to be compared to routine CEA after peripheral arterial bypass surgery.

Calculation of second-order nonlinear optical coefficients of KTiOPO4 and KTiOAsO4

The second-order nonlinear optical tensor coefficients of both KTiOPO4 (KTP) and KTiOAsO4 (KTA) are calculated from the chemical bond viewpoint. All constituent chemical bonds of both crystals are considered, and contributions of each type of bond to the total linearity and nonlinearity are determined. Calculated results agree satisfactorily with experimental data in both signs and numerical values. The calculation shows that though TiO6 groups and P(1)O-4 or As(1)O-4 groups have relatively larger linear contributions, they can only produce an advantageous environment for KOx (x = 8, 9) groups and P(2)O-4 or As(2)O-4 groups in nonlinear optical contributions. The origin of nonlinearity of KTP family crystals comes from the KOx (x = 8, 9) and P(2)O-4 groups in their crystal structures. Furthermore, the difference in optical nonlinearities of KTP type crystals is analyzed, based on the detailed calculation of nonlinearities of both KTP and KTA. (C) 1999 Academic Press.

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

PROTRACTED HYPOFRACTIONATED RADIOTHERAPY for GRAVES' OPHTHALMOPATHY: A PILOT STUDY of CLINICAL and RADIOLOGIC RESPONSE

Purpose: To evaluate the clinical and radiologic response of patients with Graves' ophthalmopathy given low-dose orbital radiotherapy (RT) with a protracted fractionation.Methods and Materials: Eighteen patients (36 orbits) received orbital RT with a total dose of 10 Gy, fractionated in 1 Gy once a week over 10 weeks. of these, 9 patients received steroid therapy as well. Patients were evaluated clinically and radiologically at 6 months after treatment. Clinical response assessment was carried out using three criteria: by physical examination, by a modified clinical activity score, and by a verbal questionnaire considering the 10 most common signs and symptoms of the disease. Radiologic response was assessed by magnetic resonance imaging.Results: Improvement in ocular pain, palpebral edema, visual acuity, and ocular motility was observed in all patients. Significant decrease in symptoms such as tearing (p < 0.001) diplopia (p = 0.008), conjunctival hyperemia (p = 0.002), and ocular grittiness (p = 0.031) also occurred. Magnetic resonance imaging showed decrease in ocular muscle thickness and in the intensity of the T2 sequence signal in the majority of patients. Treatments were well tolerated, and to date no complications from treatment have been observed. There was no statistical difference in clinical and radiologic response between patients receiving RT alone and those receiving RT plus steroid therapy.Conclusion: RT delivered in at a low dose and in a protracted scheme should be considered as a useful therapeutic option for patients with Graves' ophthalmopathy. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Hazard and early warning analysis based on domain specific modeling technologies

An aim of proactive risk management strategies is the timely identification of safety related risks. One way to achieve this is by deploying early warning systems. Early warning systems aim to provide useful information on the presence of potential threats to the system, the level of vulnerability of a system, or both of these, in a timely manner. This information can then be used to take proactive safety measures. The United Nation’s has recommended that any early warning system need to have four essential elements, which are the risk knowledge element, a monitoring and warning service, dissemination and communication and a response capability. This research deals with the risk knowledge element of an early warning system. The risk knowledge element of an early warning system contains models of possible accident scenarios. These accident scenarios are created by using hazard analysis techniques, which are categorised as traditional and contemporary. The assumption in traditional hazard analysis techniques is that accidents are occurred due to a sequence of events, whereas, the assumption of contemporary hazard analysis techniques is that safety is an emergent property of complex systems. The problem is that there is no availability of a software editor which can be used by analysts to create models of accident scenarios based on contemporary hazard analysis techniques and generate computer code that represent the models at the same time. This research aims to enhance the process of generating computer code based on graphical models that associate early warning signs and causal factors to a hazard, based on contemporary hazard analyses techniques. For this purpose, the thesis investigates the use of Domain Specific Modeling (DSM) technologies. The contributions of this thesis is the design and development of a set of three graphical Domain Specific Modeling languages (DSML)s, that when combined together, provide all of the necessary constructs that will enable safety experts and practitioners to conduct hazard and early warning analysis based on a contemporary hazard analysis approach. The languages represent those elements and relations necessary to define accident scenarios and their associated early warning signs. The three DSMLs were incorporated in to a prototype software editor that enables safety scientists and practitioners to create and edit hazard and early warning analysis models in a usable manner and as a result to generate executable code automatically. This research proves that the DSM technologies can be used to develop a set of three DSMLs which can allow user to conduct hazard and early warning analysis in more usable manner. Furthermore, the three DSMLs and their dedicated editor, which are presented in this thesis, may provide a significant enhancement to the process of creating the risk knowledge element of computer based early warning systems.