Analysing the complexity of the model-based decision making processes within the industrial management context

PURPOSE The decision-making process plays a key role in organizations. Every decision-making process produces a final choice that may or may not prompt action. Recurrently, decision makers find themselves in the dichotomous question of following a traditional sequence decision-making process where the output of a decision is used as the input of the next stage of the decision, or following a joint decision-making approach where several decisions are taken simultaneously. The implication of the decision-making process will impact different players of the organization. The choice of the decision- making approach becomes difficult to find, even with the current literature and practitioners’ knowledge. The pursuit of better ways for making decisions has been a common goal for academics and practitioners. Management scientists use different techniques and approaches to improve different types of decisions. The purpose of this decision is to use the available resources as well as possible (data and techniques) to achieve the objectives of the organization. The developing and applying of models and concepts may be helpful to solve managerial problems faced every day in different companies. As a result of this research different decision models are presented to contribute to the body of knowledge of management science. The first models are focused on the manufacturing industry and the second part of the models on the health care industry. Despite these models being case specific, they serve the purpose of exemplifying that different approaches to the problems and could provide interesting results. Unfortunately, there is no universal recipe that could be applied to all the problems. Furthermore, the same model could deliver good results with certain data and bad results for other data. A framework to analyse the data before selecting the model to be used is presented and tested in the models developed to exemplify the ideas. METHODOLOGY As the first step of the research a systematic literature review on the joint decision is presented, as are the different opinions and suggestions of different scholars. For the next stage of the thesis, the decision-making process of more than 50 companies was analysed in companies from different sectors in the production planning area at the Job Shop level. The data was obtained using surveys and face-to-face interviews. The following part of the research into the decision-making process was held in two application fields that are highly relevant for our society; manufacturing and health care. The first step was to study the interactions and develop a mathematical model for the replenishment of the car assembly where the problem of “Vehicle routing problem and Inventory” were combined. The next step was to add the scheduling or car production (car sequencing) decision and use some metaheuristics such as ant colony and genetic algorithms to measure if the behaviour is kept up with different case size problems. A similar approach is presented in a production of semiconductors and aviation parts, where a hoist has to change from one station to another to deal with the work, and a jobs schedule has to be done. However, for this problem simulation was used for experimentation. In parallel, the scheduling of operating rooms was studied. Surgeries were allocated to surgeons and the scheduling of operating rooms was analysed. The first part of the research was done in a Teaching hospital, and for the second part the interaction of uncertainty was added. Once the previous problem had been analysed a general framework to characterize the instance was built. In the final chapter a general conclusion is presented. FINDINGS AND PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS The first part of the contributions is an update of the decision-making literature review. Also an analysis of the possible savings resulting from a change in the decision process is made. Then, the results of the survey, which present a lack of consistency between what the managers believe and the reality of the integration of their decisions. In the next stage of the thesis, a contribution to the body of knowledge of the operation research, with the joint solution of the replenishment, sequencing and inventory problem in the assembly line is made, together with a parallel work with the operating rooms scheduling where different solutions approaches are presented. In addition to the contribution of the solving methods, with the use of different techniques, the main contribution is the framework that is proposed to pre-evaluate the problem before thinking of the techniques to solve it. However, there is no straightforward answer as to whether it is better to have joint or sequential solutions. Following the proposed framework with the evaluation of factors such as the flexibility of the answer, the number of actors, and the tightness of the data, give us important hints as to the most suitable direction to take to tackle the problem. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS AND AVENUES FOR FUTURE RESEARCH In the first part of the work it was really complicated to calculate the possible savings of different projects, since in many papers these quantities are not reported or the impact is based on non-quantifiable benefits. The other issue is the confidentiality of many projects where the data cannot be presented. For the car assembly line problem more computational power would allow us to solve bigger instances. For the operation research problem there was a lack of historical data to perform a parallel analysis in the teaching hospital. In order to keep testing the decision framework it is necessary to keep applying more case studies in order to generalize the results and make them more evident and less ambiguous. The health care field offers great opportunities since despite the recent awareness of the need to improve the decision-making process there are many opportunities to improve. Another big difference with the automotive industry is that the last improvements are not spread among all the actors. Therefore, in the future this research will focus more on the collaboration between academia and the health care sector.

Del plan a la realidad: gobernanza y toma de decisiones en los procesos de regeneración urbana. El caso de Boston = From plan to reality: governance and decision-making in urban regeneration processes in Boston

En las últimas tres décadas, las dinámicas de restructuración económica a nivel global han redefinido radicalmente el papel de las ciudades. La transición del keynesianismo al neoliberalismo ha provocado un cambio en las políticas urbanas de los gobiernos municipales, que han abandonado progresivamente las tareas de regulación y redistribución para centrarse en la promoción del crecimiento económico y la competitividad. En este contexto, muchas voces críticas han señalado que la regeneración urbana se ha convertido en un vehículo de extracción de valor de la ciudad y está provocando la expulsión de los ciudadanos más vulnerables. Sin embargo, la regeneración de áreas consolidadas supone también una oportunidad de mejora de las condiciones de vida de la población residente, y es una política necesaria para controlar la expansión de la ciudad y reducir las necesidades de desplazamiento, promoviendo así ciudades más sostenibles. Partiendo de la hipótesis de que la gobernanza de los procesos de regeneración urbana es clave en el resultado final de las operaciones y determina el modelo de ciudad resultante, el objetivo de esta investigación es verificar si la regeneración urbana es necesariamente un mecanismo de extracción de valor o si puede mejorar la calidad de vida en las ciudades a través de la participación de los ciudadanos. Para ello, propone un marco de análisis del proceso de toma de decisiones en los planes de regeneración urbana y su impacto en los resultados de los planes, tomando como caso de estudio la ciudad de Boston, que desde los años 1990 trata de convertirse en una “ciudad de los barrios”, fomentando la participación ciudadana al tiempo que se posiciona en la escena económica global. El análisis se centra en dos operaciones de regeneración iniciadas a finales de los años 1990. Por un lado, el caso de Jackson Square nos permite comprender el papel de la sociedad civil y el tercer sector en la regeneración de los barrios más desfavorecidos, en un claro ejemplo de urbanismo “desde abajo” (bottom-up planning). Por otro, la reconversión del frente marítimo de South Boston para la construcción del Distrito de Innovación nos acerca a las grandes operaciones de regeneración urbana con fines de estímulo económico, tradicionalmente vinculadas a los centros financieros (downtown) y dirigidas por las élites gubernamentales y económicas (la growth machine) a través de procesos más tecnocráticos (top-down planning). La metodología utilizada consiste en el análisis cualitativo de los procesos de toma de decisiones y la relación entre los agentes implicados, así como de la evaluación de la implementación de dichas decisiones y su influencia en el modelo urbano resultante. El análisis de los casos permite afirmar que la gobernanza de los procesos de regeneración urbana influye decisivamente en el resultado final de las intervenciones; sin embargo, la participación de la comunidad local en la toma de decisiones no es suficiente para que el resultado de la regeneración urbana contrarreste los efectos de la neoliberalización, especialmente si se limita a la fase de planeamiento y no se extiende a la fase de ejecución, y si no está apoyada por una movilización política de mayor alcance que asegure una acción pública redistributiva. Asimismo, puede afirmarse que los procesos de regeneración urbana suponen una redefinición del modelo de ciudad, dado que la elección de los espacios de intervención tiene consecuencias sobre el equilibrio territorial de la ciudad. Los resultados de esta investigación tienen implicaciones para la disciplina del planeamiento urbano. Por una parte, se confirma la vigencia del paradigma del “urbanismo negociado”, si bien bajo discursos de liderazgo público y sin apelación al protagonismo del sector privado. Por otra parte, la planificación colaborativa en un contexto de “responsabilización” de las organizaciones comunitarias puede desactivar la potencia política de la participación ciudadana y servir como “amortiguador” hacia el gobierno local. Asimismo, la sustitución del planeamiento general como instrumento de definición de la ciudad futura por una planificación oportunista basada en la actuación en áreas estratégicas que tiren del resto de la ciudad, no permite definir un modelo coherente y consensuado de la ciudad que se desea colectivamente, ni permite utilizar el planeamiento como mecanismo de redistribución. ABSTRACT In the past three decades, the dynamics of global economic restructuring have radically redefined the role of cities. The transition from keynesianism to neoliberalism has caused a shift in local governments’ urban policies, which have progressively abandoned the tasks of regulation and redistribution to focus on promoting economic growth and competitiveness. In this context, many critics have pointed out that urban regeneration has become a vehicle for extracting value from the city and is causing the expulsion of the most vulnerable citizens. However, regeneration of consolidated areas is also an opportunity to improve the living conditions of the resident population, and is a necessary policy to control the expansion of the city and reduce the need for transportation, thus promoting more sustainable cities. Assuming that the governance of urban regeneration processes is key to the final outcome of the plans and determines the resulting city model, the goal of this research is to verify whether urban regeneration is necessarily a value extraction mechanism or if it can improve the quality of life in cities through citizens’ participation. It proposes a framework for analysis of decision-making in urban regeneration processes and their impact on the results of the plans, taking as a case study the city of Boston, which since the 1990s is trying to become a "city of neighborhoods", encouraging citizen participation, while seeking to position itself in the global economic scene. The analysis focuses on two redevelopment plans initiated in the late 1990s. The Jackson Square case allows us to understand the role of civil society and the third sector in the regeneration of disadvantaged neighborhoods, in a clear example of bottom-up planning. On the contrary, the conversion of the South Boston waterfront to build the Innovation District takes us to the big redevelopment efforts with economic stimulus’ goals, traditionally linked to downtowns and led by government and economic elites (the local “growth machine”) through more technocratic processes (top-down planning). The research is based on a qualitative analysis of the processes of decision making and the relationship between those involved, as well as the evaluation of the implementation of those decisions and their influence on the resulting urban model. The analysis suggests that the governance of urban regeneration processes decisively influences the outcome of interventions; however, community engagement in the decision-making process is not enough for the result of the urban regeneration to counteract the effects of neoliberalization, especially if it is limited to the planning phase and does not extend to the implementation of the projects, and if it is not supported by a broader political mobilization to ensure a redistributive public action. Moreover, urban regeneration processes redefine the urban model, since the choice of intervention areas has important consequences for the territorial balance of the city. The results of this study have implications for the discipline of urban planning. On the one hand, it confirms the validity of the "negotiated planning" paradigm, albeit under public leadership discourse and without a direct appeal to the leadership role of the private sector. On the other hand, collaborative planning in a context of "responsibilization" of community based organizations can deactivate the political power of citizen participation and serve as a "buffer" towards the local government. Furthermore, the replacement of comprehensive planning, as a tool for defining the city's future, by an opportunistic planning based on intervention in strategic areas that are supposed to induce change in the rest of the city, does not allow a coherent and consensual urban model that is collectively desired, nor it allows to use planning as a redistribution mechanism.

Proceso metodológico para optimizar la toma de decisiones en el proyecto de envolventes arquitectónicas multicapa = Methodological process for the optimization of the decision making in multilayer building envelope projects

La presente tesis doctoral se enmarca dentro del concepto de la sistematización del conocimiento en arquitectura, más concretamente en el campo de las construcciones arquitectónicas y la toma de decisiones en la fase de proyecto de envolventes arquitectónicas multicapa. Por tanto, el objetivo principal es el establecimiento de las bases para una toma de decisiones informadas durante el proyecto de una envolvente multicapa con el fin de colaborar en su optimización. Del mismo modo que la historia de la arquitectura está relacionada con la historia de la innovación en construcción, la construcción está sujeta a cambios como respuesta a los fracasos anteriores. En base a esto, se identifica la toma de decisiones en la fase de proyecto como el estadio inicial para establecer un punto estratégico de reflexión y de control sobre los procesos constructivos. La presente investigación, conceptualmente, define los parámetros intervinientes en el proyecto de envolventes arquitectónicas multicapa a partir de una clasificación y sistematización de todos los componentes (elementos, unidades y sistemas constructivos) utilizados en las fachadas multicapa. Dicha sistematización se materializa en una hoja matriz de datos en la que, dentro de una organización a modo de árbol, se puede acceder a la consulta de cada componente y de su caracterización. Dicha matriz permite la incorporación futura de cualquier componente o sistema nuevo que aparezca en el mercado, relacionándolo con aquellos con los que comparta ubicación, tipo de material, etc. Con base en esa matriz de datos, se diseña la sistematización de la toma de decisiones en la fase de proyecto de una envolvente arquitectónica, en concreto, en el caso de una fachada. Operativamente, el resultado se presenta como una herramienta que permite al arquitecto o proyectista reflexionar y seleccionar el sistema constructivo más adecuado, al enfrentarse con las distintas decisiones o elecciones posibles. La herramienta se basa en las elecciones iniciales tomadas por el proyectista y se estructura, a continuación y sucesivamente, en distintas aproximaciones, criterios, subcriterios y posibilidades que responden a los distintos avances en la definición del sistema constructivo. Se proponen una serie de fichas operativas de comprobación que informan sobre el estadio de decisión y de definición de proyecto alcanzados en cada caso. Asimismo, el sistema permite la conexión con otros sistemas de revisión de proyectos para fomentar la reflexión sobre la normalización de los riesgos asociados tanto al proprio sistema como a su proceso constructivo y comportamiento futuros. La herramienta proporciona un sistema de ayuda para ser utilizado en el proceso de toma de decisiones en la fase de diseño de una fachada multicapa, minimizando la arbitrariedad y ofreciendo una cualificación previa a la cuantificación que supondrá la elaboración del detalle constructivo y de su medición en las sucesivas fases del proyecto. Al mismo tiempo, la sistematización de dicha toma de decisiones en la fase del proyecto puede constituirse como un sistema de comprobación en las diferentes fases del proceso de decisión proyectual y de definición de la envolvente de un edificio. ABSTRACT The central issue of this doctoral Thesis is founded on the framework of the concept of the systematization of knowledge in architecture, in particular, in respect of the field of building construction and the decision making in the design stage of multilayer building envelope projects. Therefore, the main objective is to establish the bases for knowledgeable decision making during a multilayer building envelope design process, in order to collaborate with its optimization. Just as the history of architecture is connected to the history of innovation in construction, construction itself is subject to changes as a response to previous failures. On this basis, the decisions made during the project design phase are identified as the initial state to establish an strategic point for reflection and control, referred to the constructive processes. Conceptually, this research defines the parameters involving the multilayer building envelope projects, on the basis of a classification and systematization for all the components (elements, constructive units and constructive systems) used in multilayer façades. The mentioned systematization is materialized into a data matrix sheet in which, following a tree‐like organization, the access to every single component and its characterization is possible. The above data matrix allows the future inclusion of any new component or system that may appear in the construction market. That new component or system can be put into a relationship with another, which it shares location, type of material,… with. Based on the data matrix, the systematization of the decision making process for a building envelope design stage is designed, more particularly in the case of a façade. Putting this into practice, it is represented as a tool which allows the architect or the designer, to reflect and to select the appropriate building system when facing the different elections or the different options. The tool is based on the initial elections taken by the designer. Then and successively, it is shaped on the form of different operative steps, criteria, sub‐criteria and possibilities which respond to a different progress in the definition of the building construction system. In order to inform about the stage of the decision and the definition reached by the project in every particular case, a range of operative sheets are proposed. Additionally, the system allows the connection with other reviewing methods for building projects. The aim of this last possibility is to encourage the reflection on standardization of the associated risks to the building system itself and its future performance. The tool provides a helping system to be used during the decision making process for a multilayer façade design. It minimizes the arbitrariness and offers a qualification previous to the quantification that will be done with the development of the construction details and their bill of quantities, that in subsequent project stages will be executed. At the same time, the systematization of the mentioned decision making during the design phase, can be found as a checking system in the different stages of the decision making design process and in the different stages of the building envelope definition.

Case-based reasoning to support decision making for managing drinking water quality events in distribution systems

Peer reviewed

CERCLA: A Case Study of Local Government Involvement in the Decision-Making Process in Colorado

The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) of 1980, and the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA) of 1986 strengthen roles of the community in the CERCLA process. Many layers of bureaucracy and the complexity of regulations make the implementation and enforcement of environmental policy a burdensome process. Local government, the public and private corporations have a critical role in the CERCLA decision-making process by implementing a comprehensive public participation process. This paper examines a case study in which a local Colorado health department implemented a successful public participation process in order to positively affect the remediation decision-making process.

Enrichment of the Phenotypic and Genotypic Data Warehouse analysis using Question Answering systems to facilitate the decision making process in cereal breeding programs

Currently there are an overwhelming number of scientific publications in Life Sciences, especially in Genetics and Biotechnology. This huge amount of information is structured in corporate Data Warehouses (DW) or in Biological Databases (e.g. UniProt, RCSB Protein Data Bank, CEREALAB or GenBank), whose main drawback is its cost of updating that makes it obsolete easily. However, these Databases are the main tool for enterprises when they want to update their internal information, for example when a plant breeder enterprise needs to enrich its genetic information (internal structured Database) with recently discovered genes related to specific phenotypic traits (external unstructured data) in order to choose the desired parentals for breeding programs. In this paper, we propose to complement the internal information with external data from the Web using Question Answering (QA) techniques. We go a step further by providing a complete framework for integrating unstructured and structured information by combining traditional Databases and DW architectures with QA systems. The great advantage of our framework is that decision makers can compare instantaneously internal data with external data from competitors, thereby allowing taking quick strategic decisions based on richer data.

Intelligent Decision-Making System Frameworks for a Digital Plan of Work: A Theoretical Investigation for the Construction Industry

The construction industry is characterised by fragmentation and suffers from lack of collaboration, often adopting adversarial working practices to achieve deliverables. For the UK Government and construction industry, BIM is a game changer aiming to rectify this fragmentation and promote collaboration. However it has become clear that there is an essential need to have better controls and definitions of both data deliverables and data classification. Traditional methods and techniques for collating and inputting data have shown to be time consuming and provide little to improve or add value to the overall task of improving deliverables. Hence arose the need in the industry to develop a Digital Plan of Work (DPoW) toolkit that would aid the decision making process, providing the required control over the project workflows and data deliverables, and enabling better collaboration through transparency of need and delivery. The specification for the existing Digital Plan of Work (DPoW) was to be, an industry standard method of describing geometric, requirements and data deliveries at key stages of the project cycle, with the addition of a structured and standardised information classification system. However surveys and interviews conducted within this research indicate that the current DPoW resembles a digitised version of the pre-existing plans of work and does not push towards the data enriched decision-making abilities that advancements in technology now offer. A Digital Framework is not simply the digitisation of current or historic standard methods and procedures, it is a new intelligent driven digital system that uses new tools, processes, procedures and work flows to eradicate waste and increase efficiency. In addition to reporting on conducted surveys above, this research paper will present a theoretical investigation into usage of Intelligent Decision Support Systems within a digital plan of work framework. Furthermore this paper will present findings on the suitability to utilise advancements in intelligent decision-making system frameworks and Artificial Intelligence for a UK BIM Framework. This should form the foundations of decision-making for projects implemented at BIM level 2. The gap identified in this paper is that the current digital toolkit does not incorporate the intelligent characteristics available in other industries through advancements in technology and collation of vast amounts of data that a digital plan of work framework could have access to and begin to develop, learn and adapt for decision-making through the live interaction of project stakeholders.

Sport-Specific Practice and the Development of Expert Decision-Making in Team Ball Sports

The role of sport-specific practice in the development of decision-making expertise in the sports of field hockey, netball, and basketball was examined. Fifteen expert decision-makers and 13 experienced non-expert athletes provided detailed information about the quantity and type of sport-specific and other related practice activities they had undertaken throughout their careers. Experts accumulated more hours of sport-specific practice from age 12 years onwards than did non-experts, spending on average some 13 years and 4,000 hours on concentrated sport-specific practice before reaching international standard. A significant negative correlation existed between the number of additional activities undertaken and the hours of sportspecific training required before attaining expertise, suggesting a functional role for activities other than sport-specific training in the development of expert decision-making.

The Contribution of Structured Activity and Deliberate Play to the Development of Expert Perceptual and Decision-Making Skill

The developmental histories of 32 players in the Australian Football League (AFL), independently classified as either expert or less skilled in their perceptual and decision- making skills, were collected through a structured interview process and their year-on-year involvement in structured and deliberate play activities retrospectively determined. Despite being drawn from the same elite level of competition, the expert decision-makers differed from the less skilled in having accrued, during their developing years, more hours of experience in structured activities of all types, in structured activities in invasion-type sports, in invasion-type deliberate play, and in invasion activities from sports other than Australian football. Accumulated hours invested in invasion-type activities differentiated between the groups, suggesting that it is the amount of invasion-type activity that is experienced and not necessarily intent (skill development or fun) or specificity that facilitates the development of perceptual and decision-making expertise in this team sport.

The Optimality of Decision Making During Motor Learning

In our daily lives, we often must predict how well we are going to perform in the future based on an evaluation of our current performance and an assessment of how much we will improve with practice. Such predictions can be used to decide whether to invest our time and energy in learning and, if we opt to invest, what rewards we may gain. This thesis investigated whether people are capable of tracking their own learning (i.e. current and future motor ability) and exploiting that information to make decisions related to task reward. In experiment one, participants performed a target aiming task under a visuomotor rotation such that they initially missed the target but gradually improved. After briefly practicing the task, they were asked to select rewards for hits and misses applied to subsequent performance in the task, where selecting a higher reward for hits came at a cost of receiving a lower reward for misses. We found that participants made decisions that were in the direction of optimal and therefore demonstrated knowledge of future task performance. In experiment two, participants learned a novel target aiming task in which they were rewarded for target hits. Every five trials, they could choose a target size which varied inversely with reward value. Although participants’ decisions deviated from optimal, a model suggested that they took into account both past performance, and predicted future performance, when making their decisions. Together, these experiments suggest that people are capable of tracking their own learning and using that information to make sensible decisions related to reward maximization.

Bridging qualified majority and unanimity decision-making in the EU. IHS Political Science Series No. 132, February 2013

The EU has tried to bridge decision making by qualified majority and unanimity over the years by expanding qualified majorities (consensus) or by making unanimities easier to achieve. I call this decision-making procedure q-“unanimity” and trace its history from the Luxembourg compromise to the Lisbon Treaty, and to more recent agreements. I analyze the most recent and explicit mechanism of this bridging (article 31 (2) of the Lisbon Treaty) and identify one specific means by which the transformation of qualified majorities to unanimities is achieved: the reduction of precision or scope of the decision, so that different behaviors can be covered by it. I provide empirical evidence of such a mechanism by analyzing legislative decisions. Finally, I argue that this bridging is a ubiquitous feature of EU institutions, used in Treaties as well as in legislative decision-making.