Lottery Action Newsletter, November 15-28, 2010 vol. 17, no. 21

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Lottery Action Newsletter, October 25-November 14, 2010 Vol. 17, no. 20

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Lottery Action Newsletter September 27-October 20, 2010, Vol. 17, no. 18

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Lottery Action Newsletter for July 26-August 8, 2010 Vol. 17, no.11

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Lottery Action Newsletter Special Edition, June 28, 2010

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Lottery Action Newsletter, February 22-March 7, 2010, Vol. 17, #14

Lottery Newsletter for Lottery Retailers

Ambient seismic noise monitoring of a clay landslide: Toward failure prediction

Given that clay-rich landslides may become mobilized, leading to rapid mass movements (earthflows and debris flows), they pose critical problems in risk management worldwide. The most widely proposed mechanism leading to such flow-like movements is the increase in water pore pressure in the sliding mass, generating partial or complete liquefaction. This solid-to-liquid transition results in a dramatic reduction of mechanical rigidity in the liquefied zones, which could be detected by monitoring shear wave velocity variations. With this purpose in mind, the ambient seismic noise correlation technique has been applied to measure the variation in the seismic surface wave velocity in the Pont Bourquin landslide (Swiss Alps). This small but active composite earthslide-earthflow was equipped with continuously recording seismic sensors during spring and summer 2010. An earthslide of a few thousand cubic meters was triggered in mid-August 2010, after a rainy period. This article shows that the seismic velocity of the sliding material, measured from daily noise correlograms, decreased continuously and rapidly for several days prior to the catastrophic event. From a spectral analysis of the velocity decrease, it was possible to determine the location of the change at the base of the sliding layer. These results demonstrate that ambient seismic noise can be used to detect rigidity variations before failure and could potentially be used to predict landslides.

Impact of prolonged antihypertensive duration of action on predicted clinical outcomes in imperfectly adherent patients: comparison of aliskiren, irbesartan and ramipril.

Background: Most patients miss occasional doses of antihypertensives. The use of 'forgiving' drugs (i.e. drugs with duration of action longer than the 24-h dosing interval) may allow an adequate blood pressure (BP) reduction to be maintained despite missed doses. Aim:To quantify the effects of adherence level and duration of action on estimated mean systolic BP (SBP) reduction and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Method:For 1250 patients, we simulated 256-day dosing histories with realistically distributed drug holidays based on a study of electronically monitored dosing records. Adherence was set to the desired level by altering the proportion of doses missed. Mean office SBP-lowering effect (aliskiren 300 mg, -14.1 mmHg; irbesartan 300 mg, -13.3; ramipril 10 mg, -10.1 mmHg) and the rate of SBP increase after stopping treatment (off-rate; aliskiren, 1.0 mmHg/day; irbesartan, 3.6 mmHg/day; ramipril, 4.0 mmHg/day) were taken from the results of a randomised, double-blind trial. SBP was averaged over time and patient to estimate mean reductions in SBP and 10-year CVD risk (Framingham risk equation, baseline absolute 10-year CVD risk: 27%). Results:Predicted reductions in SBP and CVD risk with aliskiren were larger and less affected by imperfect adherence than the reductions with irbesartan or ramipril. For aliskiren, reducing adherence from 90% to 60% led to a predicted rise in SBP of 1.0 mmHg and three additional CVD events per 1000 treated patients; larger predicted differences were observed for irbesartan (2.5 mmHg; 7.5 events/1000 treated patients) and ramipril (2.2 mmHg; 6.7 events/1000 treated patients). Conclusion:To offset the effects of imperfect adherence, a common challenge with antihypertensives, for better BP management it may be prudent to prescribe 'forgiving' drugs.

Measurements of seismic attenuation and transient fluid pressure in partially saturated Berea sandstone: Evidence of fluid flow on the mesoscopic scale

A novel laboratory technique is proposed to investigate wave-induced fluid flow on the mesoscopic scale as a mechanism for seismic attenuation in partially saturated rocks. This technique combines measurements of seismic attenuation in the frequency range from 1 to 100?Hz with measurements of transient fluid pressure as a response of a step stress applied on top of the sample. We used a Berea sandstone sample partially saturated with water. The laboratory results suggest that wave-induced fluid flow on the mesoscopic scale is dominant in partially saturated samples. A 3-D numerical model representing the sample was used to verify the experimental results. Biot's equations of consolidation were solved with the finite-element method. Wave-induced fluid flow on the mesoscopic scale was the only attenuation mechanism accounted for in the numerical solution. The numerically calculated transient fluid pressure reproduced the laboratory data. Moreover, the numerically calculated attenuation, superposed to the frequency-independent matrix anelasticity, reproduced the attenuation measured in the laboratory in the partially saturated sample. This experimental?numerical fit demonstrates that wave-induced fluid flow on the mesoscopic scale and matrix anelasticity are the dominant mechanisms for seismic attenuation in partially saturated Berea sandstone.

Seismic reflectivity of the sediment-covered seafloor: Effects of velocity gradients and fine-scale layering

Knowledge of the reflectivity of the sediment-covered seabed is of significant importance to marine seismic data acquisition and interpretation as it governs the generation of reverberations in the water layer. In this context pertinent, but largely unresolved, questions concern the importance of the typically very prominent vertical seismic velocity gradients as well as the potential presence and magnitude of anisotropy in soft surficial seabed sediments. To address these issues, we explore the seismic properties of granulometric end-member-type clastic sedimentary seabed models consisting of sand, silt, and clay as well as scale-invariant stochastic layer sequences of these components characterized by realistic vertical gradients of the P- and S-wave velocities. Using effective media theory, we then assess the nature and magnitude of seismic anisotropy associated with these models. Our results indicate that anisotropy is rather benign for P-waves, and that the S-wave velocities in the axial directions differ only slightly. Because of the very high P- to S-wave velocity ratios in the vicinity of the seabed our models nevertheless suggest that S-wave triplications may occur at very small incidence angles. To numerically evaluate the P-wave reflection coefficient of our seabed models, we apply a frequency-slowness technique to the corresponding synthetic seismic wavefields. Comparison with analytical plane-wave reflection coefficients calculated for corresponding isotropic elastic half-space models shows that the differences tend to be most pronounced in the vicinity of the elastic equivalent of the critical angle as well as in the post-critical range. We also find that the presence of intrinsic anisotropy in the clay component of our layered models tends to dramatically reduce the overall magnitude of the P-wave reflection coefficient as well as its variation with incidence angle.

Do seismic waves and fluid flow sense the same permeability?

We study the discrepancy between the effective flow permeability and the effective seismic permeability, that is, the effective permeability controlling seismic attenuation due to wave-induced fluid flow, in 2D rock samples having mesoscopic heterogeneities and in the presence of strong permeability fluctuations. In order to do so, we employ a numerical oscillatory compressibility test to determine attenuation and velocity dispersion due to wave-induced fluid flow in these kinds of media and compare the responses with those obtained by replacing the heterogeneous permeability field by constant values, including the average permeability as well as the effective flow permeability of the sample. The latter is estimated in a separate upscaling procedure by solving the steady-state flow equation in the rock sample under study. Numerical experiments let us verify that attenuation levels are less significant and the attenuation peak gets broader in the presence of such strong permeability fluctuations. Moreover, we observe that for very low frequencies the effective seismic permeability is similar to the effective flow permeability, while for very high frequencies it approaches the arithmetic average of the permeability field.