Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Repression of flagellar genes in exponential phase by CsgD and CpxR, two crucial modulators of Escherichia coli biofilm formation.

Escherichia coli adapts its lifestyle to the variations of environmental growth conditions, swapping between swimming motility or biofilm formation. The stationary-phase sigma factor RpoS is an important regulator of this switch, since it stimulates adhesion and represses flagellar biosynthesis. By measuring the dynamics of gene expression, we show that RpoS inhibits the transcription of the flagellar sigma factor, FliA, in exponential growth phase. RpoS also partially controls the expression of CsgD and CpxR, two transcription factors important for bacterial adhesion. We demonstrate that these two regulators repress the transcription of fliA, flgM, and tar and that this regulation is dependent on the growth medium. CsgD binds to the flgM and fliA promoters around their -10 promoter element, strongly suggesting direct repression. We show that CsgD and CpxR also affect the expression of other known modulators of cell motility. We propose an updated structure of the regulatory network controlling the choice between adhesion and motility.

Identification of Leishmania major cysteine proteinases as targets of the immune response in humans.

In this study, we report the identification of two parasite polypeptides recognized by human sera of patients infected with Leishmania major. Isolation and sequencing of the two genes encoding these polypeptides revealed that one of the genes is similar to the L. major cathepsin L-like gene family CPB, whereas the other gene codes for the L. major homologue of the cysteine proteinase a (CPA) of L. mexicana. By restriction enzyme digestion of genomic DNA, we show that the CPB gene is present in multiple copies in contrast to the cysteine proteinase CPA gene which could be unique. Specific antibodies directed against the mature regions of both types expressed in Escherichia coli were used to analyze the expression of these polypeptides in different stages of the parasite's life cycle. Polypeptides of 27 and 40 kDa in size, corresponding to CPA and CPB respectively, were detected at higher level in amastigotes than in stationary phase promastigotes. Purified recombinant CPs were also used to examine the presence of specific antibodies in sera from either recovered or active cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis patients. Unlike sera from healthy uninfected controls, all the sera reacted with recombinant CPA and CPB. This finding indicates that individuals having recovered from cutaneous leishmaniasis or with clinically apparent disease have humoral responses to cysteine proteinases demonstrating the importance of these proteinases as targets of the immune response and also their potential use for serodiagnosis.

Supply Multipliers in Two Regional Economies

This paper focuses on the analysis of the economic impact that sectorial total factor productivity – or valued added - gains have on two regional Spanish economies (Catalonia and Extremadura). In particular it is studied the quantitative effect that each sector’s valued added injections has on household welfare (real disposable income), on the consumption price indices and factor relative prices, on real production (GDP) and on the government and foreign net income. To do that, we introduce the concept of supply multiplier. The analytical approach consists of a computable general equilibrium model, in which it is assumed perfect competition and cleared markets of goods and factors. All the parameters and exogenous variables of the model are calibrated by means of two social accounting matrices, one for each region under study. The results allow identifying those sectors with the greatest multipliers impact on consumer welfare as the key sectors in the regional economies. Keywords: efficiency gains, supply multipliers, key sectors, computable general equilibrium. JEL Classification: C68, R13.

Lifespan extension by calorie restriction relies on the Sty1 MAP kinase stress pathway

Either calorie restriction, loss of function of the nutrient-dependent PKA or TOR/SCH9 pathways, or activation of stress defences improves longevity in different eukaryotes. However, the molecular links between glucose depletion, nutrient-dependent pathways and stress responses are unknown. Here we show that either calorie restriction or inactivation of nutrient-dependent pathways induces life-span extension in fission yeast, and that such effect is dependent on the activation of the stress-dependent Sty1 MAP kinase. During transition to stationary phase in glucose-limiting conditions, Sty1 becomes activated and triggers a transcriptional stress program, whereas such activation does not occur under glucose-rich conditions. Deletion of the genes coding for the SCH9-homologue Sck2 or the Pka1 kinases, or mutations leading to constitutive activation of the Sty1 stress pathway increase life span under glucose-rich conditions, and importantly such beneficial effects depend ultimately on Sty1. Furthermore, cells lacking Pka1 display enhanced oxygen consumption and Sty1 activation under glucose-rich conditions. We conclude that calorie restriction favours oxidative metabolism, reactive oxygen species production and Sty1 MAP kinase activation, and this stress pathway favours life-span extension.

Cross recurrence quantification for cover song identification

There is growing evidence that nonlinear time series analysis techniques can be used to successfully characterize, classify, or process signals derived from realworld dynamics even though these are not necessarily deterministic and stationary. In the present study we proceed in this direction by addressing an important problem our modern society is facing, the automatic classification of digital information. In particular, we address the automatic identification of cover songs, i.e. alternative renditions of a previously recorded musical piece. For this purpose we here propose a recurrence quantification analysis measure that allows tracking potentially curved and disrupted traces in cross recurrence plots. We apply this measure to cross recurrence plots constructed from the state space representation of musical descriptor time series extracted from the raw audio signal. We show that our method identifies cover songs with a higher accuracy as compared to previously published techniques. Beyond the particular application proposed here, we discuss how our approach can be useful for the characterization of a variety of signals from different scientific disciplines. We study coupled Rössler dynamics with stochastically modulated mean frequencies as one concrete example to illustrate this point.

Temporal diffeomorphic free-form deformation: application to motion and strain estimation from 3D echocardiography

This paper presents a new registration algorithm, called Temporal Di eomorphic Free Form Deformation (TDFFD), and its application to motion and strain quanti cation from a sequence of 3D ultrasound (US) images. The originality of our approach resides in enforcing time consistency by representing the 4D velocity eld as the sum of continuous spatiotemporal B-Spline kernels. The spatiotemporal displacement eld is then recovered through forward Eulerian integration of the non-stationary velocity eld. The strain tensor iscomputed locally using the spatial derivatives of the reconstructed displacement eld. The energy functional considered in this paper weighs two terms: the image similarity and a regularization term. The image similarity metric is the sum of squared di erences between the intensities of each frame and a reference one. Any frame in the sequence can be chosen as reference. The regularization term is based on theincompressibility of myocardial tissue. TDFFD was compared to pairwise 3D FFD and 3D+t FFD, bothon displacement and velocity elds, on a set of synthetic 3D US images with di erent noise levels. TDFFDshowed increased robustness to noise compared to these two state-of-the-art algorithms. TDFFD also proved to be more resistant to a reduced temporal resolution when decimating this synthetic sequence. Finally, this synthetic dataset was used to determine optimal settings of the TDFFD algorithm. Subsequently, TDFFDwas applied to a database of cardiac 3D US images of the left ventricle acquired from 9 healthy volunteers and 13 patients treated by Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (CRT). On healthy cases, uniform strain patterns were observed over all myocardial segments, as physiologically expected. On all CRT patients, theimprovement in synchrony of regional longitudinal strain correlated with CRT clinical outcome as quanti ed by the reduction of end-systolic left ventricular volume at follow-up (6 and 12 months), showing the potential of the proposed algorithm for the assessment of CRT.

Réadaptation cardiovasculaire, un- bien sous-utilisé [Cardiac rehabilitation, a proven intervention underutilized in the French-speaking part of Switzerland].

Cardiac rehabilitation is associated with a reduced risk of recurrence and mortality after an acute coronary syndrome. Cardiac rehabilitation is a multidisciplinary approach which starts during the acute hospital phase, then followed by a four to six weeks home-based or stationary program, in order to maintain long-term lifestyle changes. Despite the important health benefits of cardiac rehabilitation and its cost-effectiveness, only half of the patients in Europe will achieve a cardiovascular prevention program after an acute coronary syndrome. In the French part of Switzerland, one explanation for this low adherence might be the lack of both stationary and home-based program facilities.

Conclusion : les usages possibles et contestables des normes et des institutions dans l'internationalisation des services

The conclusion of this volume on technical standards in the regulation of services reviews the authors' contributions to understanding the relation between tertiarisation, internationalisation and standardisation from three distinct perspectives : theoretical, institutional, and sectorial. It argues that conventional views on conditions for standardisation and internationalisation of service activities are overly restrictive, making them dependent on sectorial and institutional specificity. In emphasizing the possible and contestable uses of service standards, the volume opens a critical debate on service offshoring, underlining the social and historical constructions of its transnational logic.

Wavelet analysis residual kriging vs. neural network residual kriging

This paper deals with the problem of spatial data mapping. A new method based on wavelet interpolation and geostatistical prediction (kriging) is proposed. The method - wavelet analysis residual kriging (WARK) - is developed in order to assess the problems rising for highly variable data in presence of spatial trends. In these cases stationary prediction models have very limited application. Wavelet analysis is used to model large-scale structures and kriging of the remaining residuals focuses on small-scale peculiarities. WARK is able to model spatial pattern which features multiscale structure. In the present work WARK is applied to the rainfall data and the results of validation are compared with the ones obtained from neural network residual kriging (NNRK). NNRK is also a residual-based method, which uses artificial neural network to model large-scale non-linear trends. The comparison of the results demonstrates the high quality performance of WARK in predicting hot spots, reproducing global statistical characteristics of the distribution and spatial correlation structure.

Auditory motion affects visual biological motion processing.

The processing of biological motion is a critical, everyday task performed with remarkable efficiency by human sensory systems. Interest in this ability has focused to a large extent on biological motion processing in the visual modality (see, for example, Cutting, J. E., Moore, C., & Morrison, R. (1988). Masking the motions of human gait. Perception and Psychophysics, 44(4), 339-347). In naturalistic settings, however, it is often the case that biological motion is defined by input to more than one sensory modality. For this reason, here in a series of experiments we investigate behavioural correlates of multisensory, in particular audiovisual, integration in the processing of biological motion cues. More specifically, using a new psychophysical paradigm we investigate the effect of suprathreshold auditory motion on perceptions of visually defined biological motion. Unlike data from previous studies investigating audiovisual integration in linear motion processing [Meyer, G. F. & Wuerger, S. M. (2001). Cross-modal integration of auditory and visual motion signals. Neuroreport, 12(11), 2557-2560; Wuerger, S. M., Hofbauer, M., & Meyer, G. F. (2003). The integration of auditory and motion signals at threshold. Perception and Psychophysics, 65(8), 1188-1196; Alais, D. & Burr, D. (2004). No direction-specific bimodal facilitation for audiovisual motion detection. Cognitive Brain Research, 19, 185-194], we report the existence of direction-selective effects: relative to control (stationary) auditory conditions, auditory motion in the same direction as the visually defined biological motion target increased its detectability, whereas auditory motion in the opposite direction had the inverse effect. Our data suggest these effects do not arise through general shifts in visuo-spatial attention, but instead are a consequence of motion-sensitive, direction-tuned integration mechanisms that are, if not unique to biological visual motion, at least not common to all types of visual motion. Based on these data and evidence from neurophysiological and neuroimaging studies we discuss the neural mechanisms likely to underlie this effect.

On the number of independent cultural traits carried by individuals and populations.

In species subject to individual and social learning, each individual is likely to express a certain number of different cultural traits acquired during its lifetime. If the process of trait innovation and transmission reaches a steady state in the population, the number of different cultural traits carried by an individual converges to some stationary distribution. We call this the trait-number distribution. In this paper, we derive the trait-number distributions for both individuals and populations when cultural traits are independent of each other. Our results suggest that as the number of cultural traits becomes large, the trait-number distributions approach Poisson distributions so that their means characterize cultural diversity in the population. We then analyse how the mean trait number varies at both the individual and population levels as a function of various demographic features, such as population size and subdivision, and social learning rules, such as conformism and anti-conformism. Diversity at the individual and population levels, as well as at the level of cultural homogeneity within groups, depends critically on the details of population demography and the individual and social learning rules.

Examining the Agreement of Structural Loss Measured With Heidelberg Retinal Tomograhy and Functional Loss With Standard Automated Perimetry (SAP; Octopus), Pulsar Perimetry (PP), and Moorfields Motion Displacement Test (MDT) Perimetry

Purpose: To examine the relationship of functional measurements with structural measures. Methods: 146 eyes of 83 test subjects underwent Heidelberg Retinal Tomography (HRTIII) (disc area<2.43, mphsd<40), and perimetry testing with Octopus (SAP; Dynamic), Pulsar (PP; TOP) and Moorfields MDT (ESTA). Glaucoma was defined as progressive structural or functional loss (20 eyes). Perimetry test points were grouped into 6 sectors based on the estimated optic nerve head angle into which the associated nerve fiber bundle enters (Garway-Heath map). Perimetry summary measures (PSM) (MD SAP/ MD PP/ PTD MDT) were calculated from the average total deviation of each measured threshold from the normal for each sector. We calculated the 95% significance level of the sectorial PSM from the respective normative data. We calculated the percentage agreement with group1 (G1), healthy on HRT and within normal perimetric limits, and group 2 (G2), abnormal on HRT and outside normal perimetric limits. We also examined the relationship of PSM and rim area (RA) in those sectors classified as abnormal by MRA (Moorfields Regression Analysis) of HRT. Results: The mean age was 65 (range= [37, 89]). The global sensitivity versus specificity of each instrument in detecting glaucomatous eyes was: MDT 80% vs. 88%, SAP 80% vs. 80%, PP 70% vs. 89% and HRT 80% vs. 79%. Highest percentage agreement of HRT (respectively G1, G2, sector) with PSM were MDT (89%, 57%, nasal superior), SAP (83%, 74%, temporal superior), PP (74%, 63%, nasal superior). Globally percentage agreement (respectively G1, G2) was MDT (92%, 28%), SAP (87%, 40%) and PP (77%, 49%). Linear regression showed there was no significant trend globally associating RA and PSM. However, sectorally the supero-nasal sector had a statistically significant (p<0.001) trend with each instrument, the associated r2 coefficients are (MDT 0.38 SAP 0.56 and PP 0.39). Conclusions: There were no significant differences in global sensitivity or specificity between instruments. Structure-function relationships varied significantly between instruments and were consistently strongest supero-nasally. Further studies are required to investigate these relationships in detail.

Documento de Estratégia de Crescimento e de Redução da Pobreza

2. A elaboração do presente Documento de Estraté gia de Crescimento e de Redução da Pobreza (DECRP) inscreve-se nos objectivos de política do governo, de assumir o combate à pobreza segundo uma abordagem integrada e horizontal relativamente aos diferentes domínios da governação, em estreita articulação com as políticas que procuram promover o crescimento econó mico. Reflecte também a preocupação de assumir a dimensão social como uma dimensão incontorná vel do processo de desenvolvimento econó mico, na base do entendimento de que aquelas duas esferas são insepará veis, sobretudo ao nível das suas consequências sobre o desenvolvimento humano. 3. Esta nova abordagem representa uma reorientação das anteriores políticas de combate à pobreza, centradas sobretudo em acçõ es ao nível das comunidades locais, visando os grupos mais vulnerá veis da população, na base de intervençõ es de cariz pluri-sectorial. Esta perspectiva, que é já materializada atravé s do Plano Nacional de Luta contra a Pobreza (PNLP), demonstra que a luta contra a pobreza em Cabo Verde é uma preocupação já antiga, antecipando mesmo a tendência que se veio a generalizar recentemente nos países em vias de desenvolvimento, de elaboração de estraté gias de crescimento e de redução da pobreza1. 4. A actual abordagem dá todavia uma nova relevância à estraté gia de combate à pobreza, posicionando-a explicitamente, e de forma determinada, no cerne das políticas públicas, quer a nível global (governação, política macroeconó mica), quer a nível sectorial, quer ainda a nível regional e local, valorizando a maior eficá cia das políticas descentralizadoras no combate à pobreza. Do iPRSP ao Documento de Estraté gia de Crescimento e de Redução da Pobreza 5. Em Dezembro de 2001, o Governo de Cabo Verde aprovou a Estraté gia de Crescimento e de Redução da Pobreza, na sua versão preliminar2. Esta estraté gia foi apreciada conjuntamente pelo staff do Banco Mundial e do FMI de onde resultaram algumas recomendaçõ es para a versão definitiva. 6. No essencial, o iPRSP apresentava um perfil da pobreza com uma natureza ainda preliminar, dado que não se dispunha ainda dos resultados do Inqué rito à s Despesas e Receitas Familiares (IRDF 2001-2002). Esta limitação foi entretanto ultrapassada com a recente divulgação dos resultados do referido inqué rito, permitindo elaborar um perfil da pobreza em Cabo Verde como base para a preparação quer da estraté gia global, quer das estraté gias sectoriais de combate à pobreza. 7. No tempo entretanto decorrido apó s a finalização do PRSP intercalar, registou-se uma evolução significativa ao nível da elaboração de alguns planos estraté gicos sectoriais de onde decorrem novas orientaçõ es nem sempre previstas no PND. (...)

RsmY, a small regulatory RNA, is required in concert with RsmZ for GacA-dependent expression of biocontrol traits in Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0.

In the plant-beneficial soil bacterium and biocontrol model organism Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0, the GacS/GacA two-component system upregulates the production of biocontrol factors, i.e. antifungal secondary metabolites and extracellular enzymes, under conditions of slow, non-exponential growth. When activated, the GacS/GacA system promotes the transcription of a small regulatory RNA (RsmZ), which sequesters the small RNA-binding protein RsmA, a translational regulator of genes involved in biocontrol. The gene for a second GacA-regulated small RNA (RsmY) was detected in silico in various pseudomonads, and was cloned from strain CHA0. RsmY, like RsmZ, contains several characteristic GGA motifs. The rsmY gene was expressed in strain CHA0 as a 118 nt transcript which was most abundant in stationary phase, as revealed by Northern blot and transcriptional fusion analysis. Transcription of rsmY was enhanced by the addition of the strain's own supernatant extract containing a quorum-sensing signal and was abolished in gacS or gacA mutants. An rsmA mutation led to reduced rsmY expression, via a gacA-independent mechanism. Overexpression of rsmY restored the expression of target genes (hcnA, aprA) to gacS or gacA mutants. Whereas mutants deleted for either the rsmY or the rsmZ structural gene were not significantly altered in the synthesis of extracellular products (hydrogen cyanide, 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol, exoprotease), an rsmY rsmZ double mutant was strongly impaired in this production and in its biocontrol properties in a cucumber-Pythium ultimum microcosm. Mobility shift assays demonstrated that multiple molecules of RsmA bound specifically to RsmY and RsmZ RNAs. In conclusion, two small, untranslated RNAs, RsmY and RsmZ, are key factors that relieve RsmA-mediated regulation of secondary metabolism and biocontrol traits in the GacS/GacA cascade of strain CHA0.