Az MTA KRTK KTI munkaerő-piaci előrejelző rendszere = The Institute of Economics labour-market forecasting system

Ebben a cikkben bemutatjuk az MTA KRTK KTI munkaerő-piaci előrejelző rendszerének nagy léptékű szerkezetét, a szerkezet kialakítása során követett főbb elveket. Ismertetjük a hazai gyakorlatban egyedülállóan összetett és széles körű adatrendszert, amelyen a becslést és az előrejelzést elvégeztük. Röviden kitérünk az ágazati GDP előrejelzésére, a modell keresleti és kínálati oldalának működésére, valamint a kereslet és kínálat közötti eltérések dinamikájának vizsgálatára. ______ The article presents the overall structure, and main principles followed in devising the structure, of the labour-market forecasting system developed by the Institute of Economics of the Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (MTA KRTK KTI). The authors present the broad, comprehensive data system unprecedented in Hungarian practice, from which the estimate and forecast are made. The article diverges briefly onto the forecasting of branch GDP, the mode of operation of the supply and demand sides of the model, and examination of the dynamics of discrepancies between supply and demand.

Az SAP-rendszer fejlesztése egy műanyag-feldolgozó vállalatnál (Development of SAP system in a plastic manufacturing company)

Az SAP-rendszernek a kontrollingszervezetek működésére gyakorolt pozitív hatása nem titok. A visszacsatolás lehetőségének biztosításával alkalom nyílik a szervezetek tevékenységének követésére, ellenőrzésére, felülbírálására. A logisztika mint az egész vállalatot átszövő rendszer, működésének nyomon követése is létfontosságúvá vált, hiszen összetettségéből kifolyólag jellegzetességei, színvonala az egész rendszerre hatást gyakorol. A logisztikai rendszer és folyamatainak figyelemmel kísérésére a logisztikai kontrollingrendszer nyújt megoldást, visszacsatolási pontjain keresztül. A műanyag-feldolgozó vállalat esetében a szervezeti SAP-rendszer logisztikai kontrollingterületének fejlesztésétől várják a szervezeti hatékonyság emelkedését és a jobb színvonal elérését. _____ Positive effect of the SAP system on the operation of controlling organisations has not been a secret. Opportunity of the feedback will be possible to track, control, override operation of the organisations. The logistic controlling system provides a solution through feedback points for monitoring the logistic system and processes. In the case of plastics manufacturing company the increasing of organisational efficiency and achievement of a better standard is anticipated from development of logistic controlling area of the organisational SAP system.

Capillary siphons and their application in the fuel delivery system of direct methanol fuel cells

The objective of the work is to develop a fuel delivery system for potable direct methanol fuel cell. Currently, one of the most fundamental limitations of direct methanol fuel cells is that the fuel supplied to the anode of the DMFC must be a very dilute aqueous methanol solution (usually 0.5∼1.5 M). If a DMFC is filled with a dilute aqueous methanol solution, the fuel cell operation time per refuel would be very short, which would considerably diminish the advantage of a DMFC over a conventional battery. To overcome this difficulty, a complex fuel delivery system based on the modern micro system technology was proposed by the author. The proposed fuel delivery system would include micro-pumps, a methanol sensor, and a control unit. The fuel delivery system adds considerable costs to the fuel cell system and consume considerable amount of electricity from the fuel cell, which in turn significantly reduces the net power output of the fuel cell. As a result, the DMFC would have tremendous difficulty to compete with the conventional battery technology in terms of costs and power output. ^ This work presents a novel passive fuel delivery system for direct methanol fuel cells. In this particular system, a methanol fuel and an aqueous methanol solution are stored separately in two containers and a wick is disposed between the two containers in a siphon fashion, with the container of the aqueous methanol solution communicating with the anode of the DMFC. Methanol is siphoned from the methanol container to the aqueous solution container in-situ when the methanol in the aqueous methanol solution is consumed during the operation of the fuel cell. Through a proper selection of the wick and the containers, the methanol concentration near the anode of the DMFC could be maintained within a preferable range. ^

Estimation of average annual daily traffic (AADT) using geographically weighted regression (GWR) method and geographic information system (GIS)

Annual average daily traffic (AADT) is important information for many transportation planning, design, operation, and maintenance activities, as well as for the allocation of highway funds. Many studies have attempted AADT estimation using factor approach, regression analysis, time series, and artificial neural networks. However, these methods are unable to account for spatially variable influence of independent variables on the dependent variable even though it is well known that to many transportation problems, including AADT estimation, spatial context is important. ^ In this study, applications of geographically weighted regression (GWR) methods to estimating AADT were investigated. The GWR based methods considered the influence of correlations among the variables over space and the spatially non-stationarity of the variables. A GWR model allows different relationships between the dependent and independent variables to exist at different points in space. In other words, model parameters vary from location to location and the locally linear regression parameters at a point are affected more by observations near that point than observations further away. ^ The study area was Broward County, Florida. Broward County lies on the Atlantic coast between Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties. In this study, a total of 67 variables were considered as potential AADT predictors, and six variables (lanes, speed, regional accessibility, direct access, density of roadway length, and density of seasonal household) were selected to develop the models. ^ To investigate the predictive powers of various AADT predictors over the space, the statistics including local r-square, local parameter estimates, and local errors were examined and mapped. The local variations in relationships among parameters were investigated, measured, and mapped to assess the usefulness of GWR methods. ^ The results indicated that the GWR models were able to better explain the variation in the data and to predict AADT with smaller errors than the ordinary linear regression models for the same dataset. Additionally, GWR was able to model the spatial non-stationarity in the data, i.e., the spatially varying relationship between AADT and predictors, which cannot be modeled in ordinary linear regression. ^

A nanoliter volume nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) system using tunneling magneto-resistive (TMR) sensors to recognize biomolecules

The need to incorporate advanced engineering tools in biology, biochemistry and medicine is in great demand. Many of the existing instruments and tools are usually expensive and require special facilities.^ With the advent of nanotechnology in the past decade, new approaches to develop devices and tools have been generated by academia and industry. ^ One such technology, NMR spectroscopy, has been used by biochemists for more than 2 decades to study the molecular structure of chemical compounds. However, NMR spectrometers are very expensive and require special laboratory rooms for their proper operation. High magnetic fields with strengths in the order of several Tesla make these instruments unaffordable to most research groups.^ This doctoral research proposes a new technology to develop NMR spectrometers that can operate at field strengths of less than 0.5 Tesla using an inexpensive permanent magnet and spin dependent nanoscale magnetic devices. This portable NMR system is intended to analyze samples as small as a few nanoliters.^ The main problem to resolve when downscaling the variables is to obtain an NMR signal with high Signal-To-Noise-Ratio (SNR). A special Tunneling Magneto-Resistive (TMR) sensor design was developed to achieve this goal. The minimum specifications for each component of the proposed NMR system were established. A complete NMR system was designed based on these minimum requirements. The goat was always to find cost effective realistic components. The novel design of the NMR system uses technologies such as Direct Digital Synthesis (DDS), Digital Signal Processing (DSP) and a special Backpropagation Neural Network that finds the best match of the NMR spectrum. The system was designed, calculated and simulated with excellent results.^ In addition, a general method to design TMR Sensors was developed. The technique was automated and a computer program was written to help the designer perform this task interactively.^

Signal processing and information fusing algorithms for the synthesis of an alternative electromyogram/eye gaze tracking computer cursor control system

This research pursued the conceptualization and real-time verification of a system that allows a computer user to control the cursor of a computer interface without using his/her hands. The target user groups for this system are individuals who are unable to use their hands due to spinal dysfunction or other afflictions, and individuals who must use their hands for higher priority tasks while still requiring interaction with a computer. ^ The system receives two forms of input from the user: Electromyogram (EMG) signals from muscles in the face and point-of-gaze coordinates produced by an Eye Gaze Tracking (EGT) system. In order to produce reliable cursor control from the two forms of user input, the development of this EMG/EGT system addressed three key requirements: an algorithm was created to accurately translate EMG signals due to facial movements into cursor actions, a separate algorithm was created that recognized an eye gaze fixation and provided an estimate of the associated eye gaze position, and an information fusion protocol was devised to efficiently integrate the outputs of these algorithms. ^ Experiments were conducted to compare the performance of EMG/EGT cursor control to EGT-only control and mouse control. These experiments took the form of two different types of point-and-click trials. The data produced by these experiments were evaluated using statistical analysis, Fitts' Law analysis and target re-entry (TRE) analysis. ^ The experimental results revealed that though EMG/EGT control was slower than EGT-only and mouse control, it provided effective hands-free control of the cursor without a spatial accuracy limitation, and it also facilitated a reliable click operation. This combination of qualities is not possessed by either EGT-only or mouse control, making EMG/EGT cursor control a unique and practical alternative for a user's cursor control needs. ^

A micro-opto-electro-mechanical system (MOEMS) for microstructure manipulation

Microstructure manipulation is a fundamental process to the study of biology and medicine, as well as to advance micro- and nano-system applications. Manipulation of microstructures has been achieved through various microgripper devices developed recently, which lead to advances in micromachine assembly, and single cell manipulation, among others. Only two kinds of integrated feedback have been demonstrated so far, force sensing and optical binary feedback. As a result, the physical, mechanical, optical, and chemical information about the microstructure under study must be extracted from macroscopic instrumentation, such as confocal fluorescence microscopy and Raman spectroscopy. In this research work, novel Micro-Opto-Electro-Mechanical-System (MOEMS) microgrippers are presented. These devices utilize flexible optical waveguides as gripping arms, which provide the physical means for grasping a microobject, while simultaneously enabling light to be delivered and collected. This unique capability allows extensive optical characterization of the structure being held such as transmission, reflection, or fluorescence. The microgrippers require external actuation which was accomplished by two methods: initially with a micrometer screw, and later with a piezoelectric actuator. Thanks to a novel actuation mechanism, the "fishbone", the gripping facets remain parallel within 1 degree. The design, simulation, fabrication, and characterization are systematically presented. The devices mechanical operation was verified by means of 3D finite element analysis simulations. Also, the optical performance and losses were simulated by the 3D-to-2D effective index (finite difference time domain FDTD) method as well as 3D Beam Propagation Method (3D-BPM). The microgrippers were designed to manipulate structures from submicron dimensions up to approximately 100 μm. The devices were implemented in SU-8 due to its suitable optical and mechanical properties. This work demonstrates two practical applications: the manipulation of single SKOV-3 human ovarian carcinoma cells, and the detection and identification of microparts tagged with a fluorescent "barcode" implemented with quantum dots. The novel devices presented open up new possibilities in the field of micromanipulation at the microscale, scalable to the nano-domain.

Design optimization of modern machine drive systems for maximum fault tolerant and optimal operation

Modern electric machine drives, particularly three phase permanent magnet machine drive systems represent an indispensable part of high power density products. Such products include; hybrid electric vehicles, large propulsion systems, and automation products. Reliability and cost of these products are directly related to the reliability and cost of these systems. The compatibility of the electric machine and its drive system for optimal cost and operation has been a large challenge in industrial applications. The main objective of this dissertation is to find a design and control scheme for the best compromise between the reliability and optimality of the electric machine-drive system. The effort presented here is motivated by the need to find new techniques to connect the design and control of electric machines and drive systems. ^ A highly accurate and computationally efficient modeling process was developed to monitor the magnetic, thermal, and electrical aspects of the electric machine in its operational environments. The modeling process was also utilized in the design process in form finite element based optimization process. It was also used in hardware in the loop finite element based optimization process. The modeling process was later employed in the design of a very accurate and highly efficient physics-based customized observers that are required for the fault diagnosis as well the sensorless rotor position estimation. Two test setups with different ratings and topologies were numerically and experimentally tested to verify the effectiveness of the proposed techniques. ^ The modeling process was also employed in the real-time demagnetization control of the machine. Various real-time scenarios were successfully verified. It was shown that this process gives the potential to optimally redefine the assumptions in sizing the permanent magnets of the machine and DC bus voltage of the drive for the worst operating conditions. ^ The mathematical development and stability criteria of the physics-based modeling of the machine, design optimization, and the physics-based fault diagnosis and the physics-based sensorless technique are described in detail. ^ To investigate the performance of the developed design test-bed, software and hardware setups were constructed first. Several topologies of the permanent magnet machine were optimized inside the optimization test-bed. To investigate the performance of the developed sensorless control, a test-bed including a 0.25 (kW) surface mounted permanent magnet synchronous machine example was created. The verification of the proposed technique in a range from medium to very low speed, effectively show the intelligent design capability of the proposed system. Additionally, to investigate the performance of the developed fault diagnosis system, a test-bed including a 0.8 (kW) surface mounted permanent magnet synchronous machine example with trapezoidal back electromotive force was created. The results verify the use of the proposed technique under dynamic eccentricity, DC bus voltage variations, and harmonic loading condition make the system an ideal case for propulsion systems.^

Evaluating and Selecting a Property Management System

In his study - Evaluating and Selecting a Property Management System - by Galen Collins, Assistant Professor, School of Hotel and Restaurant Management, Northern Arizona University, Assistant Professor Collins states briefly at the outset: “Computerizing a property requires a game plan. Many have selected a Property Management System without much forethought and have been unhappy with the final results. The author discusses the major factors that must be taken into consideration in the selection of a PMS, based on his personal experience.” Although, this article was written in the year 1988 and some information contained may be dated, there are many salient points to consider. “Technological advances have encouraged many hospitality operators to rethink how information should be processed, stored, retrieved, and analyzed,” offers Collins. “Research has led to the implementation of various cost-effective applications addressing almost every phase of operations,” he says in introducing the computer technology germane to many PMS functions. Professor Collins talks about the Request for Proposal, its conditions and its relevance in negotiating a PMS system. The author also wants the system buyer to be aware [not necessarily beware] of vendor recommendations, and not to rely solely on them. Exercising forethought will help in avoiding the drawback of purchasing an inadequate PMS system. Remember, the vendor is there first and foremost to sell you a system. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the adjectives unreliable and unethical are on the table, but do be advised. Professor Collins presents a graphic outline for the Weighted Average Approach to Scoring Vendor Evaluations. Among the elements to be considered in evaluating a PMS system, and there are several analyzed in this essay, Professor Collins advises that a perspective buyer not overlook the service factor when choosing a PMS system. Service is an important element to contemplate. “In a hotel environment, the special emphasis should be on service. System downtime can be costly and aggravating and will happen periodically,” Collins warns. Professor Collins also examines the topic of PMS system environment; of which the importance of such a factor should not be underestimated. “The design of the computer system should be based on the physical layout of the property and the projected workloads. The heart of the system, housed in a protected, isolated area, can support work stations strategically located throughout the property,” Professor Collins provides. A Property Profile Description is outlined in Table 1. The author would also point out that ease-of-operation is another significant factor to think about. “A user-friendly software package allows the user to easily move through the program without encountering frustrating obstacles,” says Collins. “Programs that require users to memorize abstract abbreviations, codes, and information to carry out standard routines should be avoided,” he counsels.

Design and development of a one-degree-of-freedom force-reflecting manual controller prototype for teleoperation

The present research is carried out from the viewpoint of primarily space applications where human lives may be in danger if they are to work under these conditions. This work proposes to develop a one-degree-of-freedom (1-DOF) force-reflecting manual controller (FRMC) prototype for teleoperation, and address the effects of time delays commonly found in space applications where the control is accomplished via the earth-based control stations. To test the FRMC, a mobile robot (PPRK) and a slider-bar were developed and integrated to the 1-DOF FRMC. The software developed in Visual Basic is able to telecontrol any platform that uses an SV203 controller through the internet and it allows the remote system to send feedback information which may be in the form of visual or force signals. Time delay experiments were conducted on the platform and the effects of time delay on the FRMC system operation have been studied and delineated.

A ROS-based Workspace Control and Trajectory Planner for a seven degrees of freedom Robotic arm

In this Bachelor Thesis I want to provide readers with tools and scripts for the control of a 7DOF manipulator, backed up by some theory of Robotics and Computer Science, in order to better contextualize the work done. In practice, we will see most common software, and developing environments, used to cope with our task: these include ROS, along with visual simulation by VREP and RVIZ, and an almost "stand-alone" ROS extension called MoveIt!, a very complete programming interface for trajectory planning and obstacle avoidance. As we will better appreciate and understand in the introduction chapter, the capability of detecting collision objects through a camera sensor, and re-plan to the desired end-effector pose, are not enough. In fact, this work is implemented in a more complex system, where recognition of particular objects is needed. Through a package of ROS and customized scripts, a detailed procedure will be provided on how to distinguish a particular object, retrieve its reference frame with respect to a known one, and then allow navigation to that target. Together with technical details, the aim is also to report working scripts and a specific appendix (A) you can refer to, if desiring to put things together.

Investigation of factors driving the costs of operating the 2020 Irish power system with large-scale wind generation

The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.

A Micro-Opto-Electro-Mechanical System (MOEMS) for Microstructure Manipulation

Microstructure manipulation is a fundamental process to the study of biology and medicine, as well as to advance micro- and nano-system applications. Manipulation of microstructures has been achieved through various microgripper devices developed recently, which lead to advances in micromachine assembly, and single cell manipulation, among others. Only two kinds of integrated feedback have been demonstrated so far, force sensing and optical binary feedback. As a result, the physical, mechanical, optical, and chemical information about the microstructure under study must be extracted from macroscopic instrumentation, such as confocal fluorescence microscopy and Raman spectroscopy. In this research work, novel Micro-Opto-Electro-Mechanical-System (MOEMS) microgrippers are presented. These devices utilize flexible optical waveguides as gripping arms, which provide the physical means for grasping a microobject, while simultaneously enabling light to be delivered and collected. This unique capability allows extensive optical characterization of the structure being held such as transmission, reflection, or fluorescence. The microgrippers require external actuation which was accomplished by two methods: initially with a micrometer screw, and later with a piezoelectric actuator. Thanks to a novel actuation mechanism, the “fishbone”, the gripping facets remain parallel within 1 degree. The design, simulation, fabrication, and characterization are systematically presented. The devices mechanical operation was verified by means of 3D finite element analysis simulations. Also, the optical performance and losses were simulated by the 3D-to-2D effective index (finite difference time domain FDTD) method as well as 3D Beam Propagation Method (3D-BPM). The microgrippers were designed to manipulate structures from submicron dimensions up to approximately 100 µm. The devices were implemented in SU-8 due to its suitable optical and mechanical properties. This work demonstrates two practical applications: the manipulation of single SKOV-3 human ovarian carcinoma cells, and the detection and identification of microparts tagged with a fluorescent “barcode” implemented with quantum dots. The novel devices presented open up new possibilities in the field of micromanipulation at the microscale, scalable to the nano-domain.

Informal strategies of power in the local planning system

Existing studies that question the role of planning as a state institution, whose interests it serves together with those disputing the merits of collaborative planning are all essentially concerned with the broader issue of power in society. Although there have been various attempts to highlight the distorting effects of power, the research emphasis to date has been focused on the operation of power within the formal structures that constitute the planning system. As a result, relatively little attention has been attributed to the informal strategies or tactics that can be utilised by powerful actors to further their own interests. This article seeks to address this gap by identifying the informal strategies used by the holders of power to bypass the formal structures of the planning system and highlight how these procedures are to a large extent systematic and (almost) institutionalised in a shadow planning system. The methodology consists of a series of semi-structured qualitative interviews with 20 urban planners working across four planning authorities within the Greater Dublin Area, Ireland. Empirical findings are offered that highlight the importance of economic power in the emergence of what essentially constitutes a shadow planning system. More broadly, the findings suggest that much more cognisance of the structural relations that govern how power is distributed in society is required and that ‘light touch’ approaches that focus exclusively on participation and deliberation need to be replaced with more radical solutions that look towards the redistribution of economic power between stakeholders.