Essays on credit rating agencies and the assessment of sovereign risk

Sovereign ratings have only recently regained attention in the academic debate. This seems to be somewhat surprising against the background that their influence is well-known and that rating decisions have often been criticized in the past (as for example during the Asian crisis in the 90s). Sovereign ratings do not only assess the creditworthiness of governments: They are also included in the calculation of ratings for sub-sovereign issuers whereby their rating is usually restricted to the upper bound of the sovereign rating (sovereign ceiling). Earlier studies have also shown that the downgrade of a sovereign often leads to contagion effects on neighbor countries. This study focuses first on misleading incentives in the rating industry before chapter three summarizes the literature on the influence and determinants of sovereign ratings. The fourth chapter explores empirically how ratings respond to changes in sovereign debt across specific country groups. The fifth part focuses on single rating decisions of four selected rating agencies and investigates whether the timing of decisions gives reason for herding behavior. The final chapter presents a reform proposal for the future regulation of the rating industry in light of the aforementioned flaws.rn

Problem behavior of dementia patients predicts low-grade hypercoagulability in spousal caregivers

Low-grade hypercoagulability might be one pathway to explain how the chronic stress of dementia caregiving increases cardiovascular disease risk, but the specific aspects of caregiver stress that elicit hypercoagulability are elusive. We hypothesized that dementia patients' problem behaviors and negative reactions of caregivers to these behaviors would relate to hypercoagulability in caregivers.

Work-related behavior and experience patterns and predictors of mental health in German physicians in medical practice

Background and Objectives: Work-related stress and burnout among physicians are of increasing relevance. The aim of this study was to investigate work-related behavior and experience patterns and predictors of mental health of physicians working in medical practice in Germany. Methods: We surveyed a stratified, random sample of 900 physicians from different specialties. The questionnaire included the standardized instruments Work-related Behavior and Experience Pattern (AVEM) and the Short Form-12 Health Survey (SF-12). Results: Only one third of physicians reported high or very high general satisfaction with their job, but 64% would choose to study medicine again. Only 18% of physicians presented a healthy behavior and experience pattern. Almost 40% presented a pattern of reduced motivation to work, 21% were at risk of overexertion, and 22% at risk for burnout. Willingness to study medicine again, fulfilled job expectations, professional years, marital status, and behavior patterns were significant predictors of mental health and accounted for 35.6% of the variance in mental health scores. Job-related perceptions also had a significant effect on burnout. Conclusions: The strong influence of work-related perceptions suggests a need for realistic expectation management in medical education, as well as support in stress management and coping strategies during medical training.

Occurrence, risk factors, diagnosis and treatment of syphilis in the prospective observational Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Background: Annual syphilis testing was reintroduced in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) in 2004. We prospectively studied occurrence, risk factors, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches and treatment of syphilis. Methods: Over a period of 33 months, participants with positive test results for Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay were studied using the SHCS database and an additional structured case report form. Results: Of 7244 cohort participants, 909 (12.5%) had positive syphilis serology. Among these, 633 had previously been treated and had no current signs or symptoms of syphilis at time of testing. Of 218 patients with newly detected untreated syphilis, 20% reported genitooral contacts as only risk behavior and 60% were asymptomatic. Newly detected syphilis was more frequent among men who have sex with men (MSM) [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.8, P < 0.001], in persons reporting casual sexual partners (adjusted OR 2.8, P < 0.001) and in MSM of younger age (P = 0.05). Only 35% of recommended cerebrospinal fluid (CFS) examinations were performed. Neurosyphilis was diagnosed in four neurologically asymptomatic patients; all of them had a Venereal Disease Research Laboratory (VDRL) titer of 1:≥32. Ninety-one percent of the patients responded to treatment with at least a four-fold decline in VDRL titer. Conclusion: Syphilis remains an important coinfection in the SHCS justifying reintroduction of routine screening. Genitooral contact is a significant way of transmission and young MSM are at high risk for syphilis. Current guidelines to rule out neurosyphilis by CSF analysis are inconsistently followed in clinical practice. Serologic treatment response is above 90% in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy.

A randomized trial of effects of health risk appraisal combined with group sessions or home visits on preventive behaviors in older adults

Background. To explore effects of a health risk appraisal for older people (HRA-O) program with reinforcement, we conducted a randomized controlled trial in 21 general practices in Hamburg, Germany. Methods. Overall, 2,580 older patients of 14 general practitioners trained in reinforcing recommendations related to HRA-O-identified risk factors were randomized into intervention (n = 878) and control (n = 1,702) groups. Patients (n = 746) of seven additional matched general practitioners who did not receive this training served as a comparison group. Patients allocated to the intervention group, and their general practitioners, received computer-tailored written recommendations, and patients were offered the choice between interdisciplinary group sessions (geriatrician, physiotherapist, social worker, and nutritionist) and home visits (nurse). Results. Among the intervention group, 580 (66%) persons made use of personal reinforcement (group sessions: 503 [87%], home visits: 77 [13%]). At 1-year follow-up, persons in the intervention group had higher use of preventive services (eg, influenza vaccinations, adjusted odds ratio 1.7; 95% confidence interval 1.4–2.1) and more favorable health behavior (eg, high fruit/fiber intake, odds ratio 2.0; 95% confidence interval 1.6–2.6), as compared with controls. Comparisons between intervention and comparison group data revealed similar effects, suggesting that physician training alone had no effect. Subgroup analyses indicated favorable effects for HRA-O with personal reinforcement, but not for HRA-O without reinforcement. Conclusions. HRA-O combined with physician training and personal reinforcement had favorable effects on preventive care use and health behavior.

Terrestrial feeding in aquatic turtles: environment-dependent feeding behavior modulation and the evolution of terrestrial feeding in Emydidae

Evolutionary transitions between aquatic and terrestrial environments are common in vertebrate evolution. These transitions require major changes in most physiological functions, including feeding. Emydid turtles are ancestrally aquatic, with most species naturally feeding only in water, but some terrestrial species can modulate their feeding behavior appropriately for both media. In addition, many aquatic species can be induced to feed terrestrially. A comparison of feeding in both aquatic and terrestrial environments presents an excellent opportunity to investigate the evolution of terrestrial feeding from aquatic feeding, as well as a system within which to develop methods for studying major evolutionary transitions between environments. Individuals from eight species of emydid turtles (six aquatic, two terrestrial) were filmed while feeding underwater and on land. Bite kinematics were analyzed to determine whether aquatic turtles modulated their feeding behavior in a consistent and appropriate manner between environments. Aquatic turtles showed consistent changes between environments, taking longer bites and using more extensive motions of the jaw and hyoid when feeding on land. However, these motions differ from those shown by species that naturally feed in both environments and mostly do not seem to be appropriate for terrestrial feeding. For example, more extensive motions of the hyoid are only effective during underwater suction feeding. Emydids evolving to feed on land probably would have needed to evolve or learn to overcome many, but not all, aspects of the intrinsic emydid response to terrestrial feeding. Studies that investigate major evolutionary transitions must determine what responses to the new environment are shown by naïve individuals in order to fully understand the evolutionary patterns and processes associated with these transitions.

Risk Judgment in Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder: Testing a Dual-Systems Account

Dual-systems theorists posit distinct modes of reasoning. The intuition system reasons automatically and its processes are unavailable to conscious introspection. The deliberation system reasons effortfully while its processes recruit working memory. The current paper extends the application of such theories to the study of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD). Patients with OCD often retain insight into their irrationality, implying dissociable systems of thought: intuition produces obsessions and fears that deliberation observes and attempts (vainly) to inhibit. To test the notion that dual-systems theory can adequately describe OCD, we obtained speeded and unspeeded risk judgments from OCD patients and non-anxious controls in order to quantify the differential effects of intuitive and deliberative reasoning. As predicted, patients deemed negative events to be more likely than controls. Patients also took more time in producing judgments than controls. Furthermore, when forced to respond quickly patients' judgments were more affected than controls'. Although patients did attenuate judgments when given additional time, their estimates never reached the levels of controls'. We infer from these data that patients have genuine difficulty inhibiting their intuitive cognitive system. Our dual-systems perspective is compatible with current theories of the disorder. Similar behavioral tests may prove helpful in better understanding related anxiety disorders. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sexual mixing and HIV risk among ethnic minority MSM in Britain

We conducted a cross-sectional online survey of men who have sex with men (MSM) living in Britain in 2007-2008 to examine sexual mixing among ethnic minority MSM. The sample comprised 115 black, 112 South Asian, 47 Chinese and 4,434 white MSM who reported unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) in the previous 3 months. In each ethnic minority group, MSM were three times more likely to report UAI with a partner of the same ethnicity than would be expected by chance alone (χ(2) > 8.43, p < 0.05). Nonetheless, most (>80 %) ethnic minority MSM reported UAI with men from an ethnic group other than their own. In multivariable analysis there was statistical evidence that, compared with white British MSM, self-reported HIV seropositivity remained low for South Asian and Chinese MSM after adjusting for UAI with partners of the same ethnicity (e.g. South Asian MSM, adjusted odds ratio 0.35, 95 % CI 0.19-0.66). This analysis suggests that differences in self-reported HIV seropositivity between ethnic minority and white MSM in Britain cannot be explained by sexual mixing with partners from the same ethnic group.

Ways of coping and biomarkers of an increased atherothrombotic cardiovascular disease risk in elderly individuals

Objective. To investigate the relationship between coping and atherothrombotic biomarkers of an increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in the elderly. Methods. We studied 136 elderly caregiving and noncaregiving men and women who completed the Ways of Coping Checklist to assess problem-focused coping, seeking social support (SSS), blamed self, wishful thinking, and avoidance coping. They had circulating levels of 12 biomarkers measured. We also probed for potential mediator and moderator variables (chronic stress, affect, health behavior, autonomic activity) for the relation between coping and biomarkers. Results. After controlling for demographic and CVD risk factors, greater use of SSS was associated with elevated levels of serum amyloid A (P = 0.001), C-reactive protein (CRP) (P = 0.002), vascular cellular adhesion molecule (VCAM)-1 (P = 0.021), and D-dimer (P = 0.032). There were several moderator effects. For instance, greater use of SSS was associated with elevated VCAM-1 (P < 0.001) and CRP (P = 0.001) levels in subjects with low levels of perceived social support and positive affect, respectively. The other coping styles were not significantly associated with any biomarker. Conclusions. Greater use of SSS might compromise cardiovascular health through atherothrombotic mechanisms, including elevated inflammation (i.e., serum amyloid A, CRP, VCAM-1) and coagulation (i.e., D-dimer) activity. Moderating variables need to be considered in this relationship.

Pre- and posttransplant management of solid organ transplant recipients: risk-adjusted follow-up

Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTR) have an increased risk of skin cancer due to their long-term immunosuppressive state. As the number of these patients is increasing, as well as their life expectancy, it is important to discuss the screening and management of skin cancer in this group of patients. The role of the dermatologist, in collaboration with the transplant team, is important both before transplantation, where patients are screened for skin lesions and the individual risk for skin cancer development is assessed, and after transplantation. Posttransplant management consists of regular dermatological consultations (the frequency depends on different factors discussed below), where early skin cancer screening and management, as well as patient education on sun protective behavior is taught and enforced. Indeed, SOTR are very sensitive to sun damage due to their immunosuppressive state, leading to cumulative sun damage which results in field cancerization with numerous lesions such as in situ squamous cell carcinoma, actinic keratosis and Bowen's disease. These lesions should be recognized and treated as early as possible. Therapeutic options discussed will involve topical therapy, surgical management, adjustment of the patient's immunosuppressive therapy (i.e. reduction of immunosuppression and/or switch to mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors) and chemoprevention with the retinoid acitretin, which reduces the recurrence rate of squamous cell carcinoma. The dermatological follow-up of SOTR should be integrated into the comprehensive posttransplant care.

Serum levels of mannose-binding lectin and the risk of fever in neutropenia pediatric cancer patients

BACKGROUND: Fever in neutropenia (FN) is a frequent complication in pediatric oncology. Deficiency of mannose-binding lectin (MBL), an important component of innate immunity, is common due to genetic polymorphisms, but its impact on infections in oncologic patients is controversial. This study investigated whether MBL serum levels at cancer diagnosis are associated with the development of FN in pediatric cancer patients. PROCEDURE: Serum MBL was measured using ELISA. Frequency, duration, and cause of FN were assessed retrospectively. Association with MBL level was analyzed using uni- and multivariate Poisson regression taking into account both intensity and duration of chemotherapy. RESULTS: In 94 children, with a cumulative follow-up time of 81.7 years, 177 FN episodes were recorded. Patients with both very low MBL levels (<100 microg/L; risk ratio (RR), 1.93; 95% CI, 1.14-3.28; P = 0.014) and normal MBL levels (>/=1,000 microg/L; RR, P = 0.011) had significantly more frequent FN episodes than patients with low MBL levels (100-999 microg/L). Patients with very low MBL levels had significantly more episodes of FN with severe bacterial infection (bacteremia or pneumonia; RR, 4.49; 1.69 = 11.8; P = 0.003), while those with normal MBL levels had more FN episodes with no microbial etiology identified (RR, 1.85; 1.14 = 3.03; P = 0.014). CONCLUSIONS: Very low MBL levels are associated with more frequent FN episodes, mainly due to severe bacterial infections. The surprising finding that children with normal MBL levels had more frequent FN episodes than those with low MBL levels needs testing in prospective studies. Pediatr Blood Cancer (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Effect of risk factors on complicated and uncomplicated ulcers in the TARGET lumiracoxib outcomes study

BACKGROUND ; AIMS: Selective cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors were developed to reduce the gastrointestinal risk associated with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). The Therapeutic Arthritis Research and Gastrointestinal Event Trial was the largest study to evaluate primarily the gastrointestinal safety outcomes of selective cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors. Data from the Therapeutic Arthritis Research and Gastrointestinal Event Trial were used to identify risk factors and investigate the safety of lumiracoxib in subgroups. METHODS: Patients with osteoarthritis (age, >or=50 y) were randomized to receive lumiracoxib 400 mg once daily, naproxen 500 mg twice daily, or ibuprofen 800 mg 3 times daily for 12 months. Events were categorized by a blinded adjudication committee. The primary end point was all definite or probable ulcer complications. RESULTS: For patients taking NSAIDs, factors associated with an increased risk of ulcer complications were age 65 years or older (hazard ratio [HR], 2.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48-3.59), previous history of gastrointestinal bleed or ulcer (HR, 3.61; 95% CI, 1.86-7.00), non-Caucasian racial origin (HR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.35-3.27), and male sex (HR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.08-2.68). With lumiracoxib, significant risk factors were age 65 years or older (HR, 3.18; 95% CI, 1.40-7.20), male sex (HR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.25-5.40), non-Caucasian racial origin (HR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.02-4.59), and concomitant aspirin use (HR, 2.89; 95% CI, 1.40-5.97). Increased risks in patients age 65 years and older were increased further if other risk factors were present. Lumiracoxib maintained an advantage over NSAIDs across all subgroups except aspirin use. CONCLUSIONS: Lumiracoxib was associated with a reduced risk of ulcer complications compared with NSAIDs in all significant subgroups except aspirin users.

Impact of intraoperative behavior on surgical site infections

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to identify intraoperative risk factors for surgical site infections (SSIs), which are accessible to interventions. We evaluated the effect of extensive intraoperative antiseptic measures and the impact of the behavior of members of the surgical team on SSIs. METHODS: Standard versus extensive antiseptic measures were randomly assigned in 1,032 surgical patients. The adherence to principles of asepsis by members of the surgical team was assessed prospectively. RESULTS: The rate of SSI was 14% with standard antiseptic measures and 15% with extensive measures (P = .581). Multivariate analysis identified following independent risk factors: lapses in discipline (odds ratio [OR] 2.02, confidence interval [CI] 1.05-3.88), intestinal anastomosis (OR 6.74, CI 3.42-13.30), duration of operation more than 3 hours (OR 3.34, CI 1.82-6.14), and body mass index >30 kg/m2 (OR 1.98, CI 1.22-3.20). CONCLUSION: Extensive measures of antisepsis did not reduce the incidence of SSI. A lapse to adhere to principles of asepsis was identified as an independent risk factor for the development of SSI (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00555815).

Lifestyle and stroke risk: a review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In recent years, many epidemiological studies have given new insights into old and new lifestyle factors that influence the risk of cerebrovascular events. In this review, we refer to the most important articles to highlight recent advances, especially those important for stroke prevention. RECENT FINDINGS: This review focuses on the most recent studies that show the association of environmental factors, nutrition, alcohol, tobacco, education, lifestyle and behavior with the risk of vascular disease, including ischemic stroke and cerebral hemorrhage. The link between air pollution and stroke risk has become evident. Low education levels and depression are established as risk factors. This is also true for heavy alcohol consumption, although moderate drinking may be protective. Active and passive smoking are independent risk factors, and a smoking ban in public places has already reduced cardiovascular events in the short term. Physical activity reduces stroke risk; overweight increases it. However, clinical trials to assess the effect of weight reduction on stroke risk are still lacking. Fruits, vegetables, fish, fibers, low-fat dairy products, potassium and low sodium consumption are known and recommended to reduce cardiovascular risk. Data on omega 3 fatty acid, folic acid and B vitamins are inconsistent, and antioxidants are not recommended. SUMMARY: Stroke can be substantially reduced by an active lifestyle, cessation of smoking and a healthy diet. Both public and professional education should promote the awareness that a healthy lifestyle and nutrition have the potential to reduce the burden of stroke.

Association between longitudinal changes in depressive symptoms and plasma fibrinogen levels in school teachers

Depression and anxiety previously predicted coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. Inflammation contributes to CAD and shows an association with depression. We followed 57 teachers (mean 49+/-8 years) over 21 months and investigated whether changes in depressive and anxiety symptoms relate to those in the CAD risk and inflammation marker fibrinogen and vice versa. Increase in depressive symptoms and in fibrinogen levels were significantly correlated. While controlling for baseline depression rendered the association between changes in depression and fibrinogen nonsignificant, taking into account baseline fibrinogen levels maintained the predictive value of fibrinogen change for depression change. Anxiety and fibrinogen changes were not significantly correlated. This dynamic relationship between depression and the inflammatory biomarker fibrinogen might advance our knowledge about psychobiological mechanisms underlying both CAD and sickness behavior.