Sistema de apoio à decisão para a classificação de risco em projectos de tecnologias de informação

O trabalho que a seguir se apresenta tem como objectivo descrever a criação de um modelo que sirva de suporte a um sistema de apoio à decisão sobre o risco inerente à execução de projectos na área das Tecnologias de Informação (TI) recorrendo a técnicas de mineração de dados. Durante o ciclo de vida de um projecto, existem inúmeros factores que contribuem para o seu sucesso ou insucesso. A responsabilidade de monitorizar, antever e mitigar esses factores recai sobre o Gestor de Projecto. A gestão de projectos é uma tarefa difícil e dispendiosa, consome muitos recursos, depende de numerosas variáveis e, muitas vezes, até da própria experiência do Gestor de Projecto. Ao ser confrontado com as previsões de duração e de esforço para a execução de uma determinada tarefa, o Gestor de Projecto, exceptuando a sua percepção e intuição pessoal, não tem um modo objectivo de medir a plausibilidade dos valores que lhe são apresentados pelo eventual executor da tarefa. As referidas previsões são fundamentais para a organização, pois sobre elas são tomadas as decisões de planeamento global estratégico corporativo, de execução, de adiamento, de cancelamento, de adjudicação, de renegociação de âmbito, de adjudicação externa, entre outros. Esta propensão para o desvio, quando detectada numa fase inicial, pode ajudar a gerir melhor o risco associado à Gestão de Projectos. O sucesso de cada projecto terminado foi qualificado tendo em conta a ponderação de três factores: o desvio ao orçamentado, o desvio ao planeado e o desvio ao especificado. Analisando os projectos decorridos, e correlacionando alguns dos seus atributos com o seu grau de sucesso o modelo classifica, qualitativamente, um novo projecto quanto ao seu risco. Neste contexto o risco representa o grau de afastamento do projecto ao sucesso. Recorrendo a algoritmos de mineração de dados, tais como, árvores de classificação e redes neuronais, descreve-se o desenvolvimento de um modelo que suporta um sistema de apoio à decisão baseado na classificação de novos projectos. Os modelos são o resultado de um extensivo conjunto de testes de validação onde se procuram e refinam os indicadores que melhor caracterizam os atributos de um projecto e que mais influenciam o risco. Como suporte tecnológico para o desenvolvimento e teste foi utilizada a ferramenta Weka 3. Uma boa utilização do modelo proposto possibilitará a criação de planos de contingência mais detalhados e uma gestão mais próxima para projectos que apresentem uma maior propensão para o risco. Assim, o resultado final pretende constituir mais uma ferramenta à disposição do Gestor de Projecto.

Idiosyncratic risk really drives stock returns; Spanish evidence

Following the theoretical model of Merton (1987), we provide a new perspective of study about the role of idiosyncratic risk in the asset pricing process. More precisely, we analyze whether the idiosyncratic risk premium depends on the idiosyncratic risk level of an asset as well as the vatriation in the market-wide measure of idiosyncratic risk. As expected, we obtain a net positive risk premium for the Spanish stock market over the period 1987-2007. Our results show a positive relation between returns and individual indiosyncratic risk levels and a negative but lower relation with the aggregate measure of idiosyncratic risk. These findings have important implications for portfolio and risk management and contribute to provide a unified and coherent answer for the main and still unsolved question about the idiosyncratic risk puzzle: whether or not there exists a premium associated to this kind of risk and the sign for this risk premium.

Short-term scheduling considering five-minute and hour-ahead energy resource management

The introduction of new distributed energy resources, based on natural intermittent power sources, in power systems imposes the development of new adequate operation management and control methods. This paper proposes a short-term Energy Resource Management (ERM) methodology performed in two phases. The first one addresses the hour-ahead ERM scheduling and the second one deals with the five-minute ahead ERM scheduling. Both phases consider the day-ahead resource scheduling solution. The ERM scheduling is formulated as an optimization problem that aims to minimize the operation costs from the point of view of a virtual power player that manages the network and the existing resources. The optimization problem is solved by a deterministic mixed-integer non-linear programming approach and by a heuristic approach based on genetic algorithms. A case study considering a distribution network with 33 bus, 66 distributed generation, 32 loads with demand response contracts and 7 storage units has been implemented in a PSCADbased simulator developed in the field of the presented work, in order to validate the proposed short-term ERM methodology considering the dynamic power system behavior.

Intelligent energy resources management in the context of smart grids

Smart grids are envisaged as infrastructures able to accommodate all centralized and distributed energy resources (DER), including intensive use of renewable and distributed generation (DG), storage, demand response (DR), and also electric vehicles (EV), from which plug-in vehicles, i.e. gridable vehicles, are especially relevant. Moreover, smart grids must accommodate a large number of diverse types or players in the context of a competitive business environment. Smart grids should also provide the required means to efficiently manage all these resources what is especially important in order to make the better possible use of renewable based power generation, namely to minimize wind curtailment. An integrated approach, considering all the available energy resources, including demand response and storage, is crucial to attain these goals. This paper proposes a methodology for energy resource management that considers several Virtual Power Players (VPPs) managing a network with high penetration of distributed generation, demand response, storage units and network reconfiguration. The resources are controlled through a flexible SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) system that can be accessed by the evolved entities (VPPs) under contracted use conditions. A case study evidences the advantages of the proposed methodology to support a Virtual Power Player (VPP) managing the energy resources that it can access in an incident situation.

Demand response in electrical energy supply: an optimal real time pricing approach

In competitive electricity markets with deep concerns for the efficiency level, demand response programs gain considerable significance. As demand response levels have decreased after the introduction of competition in the power industry, new approaches are required to take full advantage of demand response opportunities. This paper presents DemSi, a demand response simulator that allows studying demand response actions and schemes in distribution networks. It undertakes the technical validation of the solution using realistic network simulation based on PSCAD. The use of DemSi by a retailer in a situation of energy shortage, is presented. Load reduction is obtained using a consumer based price elasticity approach supported by real time pricing. Non-linear programming is used to maximize the retailer’s profit, determining the optimal solution for each envisaged load reduction. The solution determines the price variations considering two different approaches, price variations determined for each individual consumer or for each consumer type, allowing to prove that the approach used does not significantly influence the retailer’s profit. The paper presents a case study in a 33 bus distribution network with 5 distinct consumer types. The obtained results and conclusions show the adequacy of the used methodology and its importance for supporting retailers’ decision making.

Linking better shiftwork arrangements with safety and health management systems

OBJECTIVE: Various support measures useful for promoting joint change approaches to the improvement of both shiftworking arrangements and safety and health management systems were reviewed. A particular focus was placed on enterprise-level risk reduction measures linking working hours and management systems. METHODS: Voluntary industry-based guidelines on night and shift work for department stores and the chemical, automobile and electrical equipment industries were examined. Survey results that had led to the compilation of practicable measures to be included in these guidelines were also examined. The common support measures were then compared with ergonomic checkpoints for plant maintenance work involving irregular nightshifts. On the basis of this analysis, a new night and shift work checklist was designed. RESULTS: Both the guidelines and the plant maintenance work checkpoints were found to commonly cover multiple issues including work schedules and various job-related risks. This close link between shiftwork arrangements and risk management was important as shiftworkers in these industries considered teamwork and welfare services to be essential for managing risks associated with night and shift work. Four areas found suitable for participatory improvement by managers and workers were work schedules, ergonomic work tasks, work environment and training. The checklist designed to facilitate participatory change processes covered all these areas. CONCLUSIONS: The checklist developed to describe feasible workplace actions was suitable for integration with comprehensive safety and health management systems and offered valuable opportunities for improving working time arrangements and job content together.

Influence of environmental temperature and humidity on the acute ventilatory response to exercise in asthmatic adolescents

Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disorder of the respiratory airways affecting people of all ages, and constitutes a serious public health problem worldwide (6). Such a chronic inflammation is invariably associated with injury and repair of the bronchial epithelium known as remodelling (11). Inflammation, remodelling, and altered neural control of the airways are responsible for both recurrent exacerbations of asthma and increasingly permanent airflow obstruction (11, 29, 34). Excessive airway narrowing is caused by altered smooth muscle behaviour, in close interaction with swelling of the airway walls, parenchyma retractile forces, and enhanced intraluminal secretions (29, 38). All these functional and structural changes are associated with the characteristic symptoms of asthma – cough, chest tightness, and wheezing –and have a significant impact on patients’ daily lives, on their families and also on society (1, 24, 29). Recent epidemiological studies show an increase in the prevalence of asthma, mainly in industrial countries (12, 25, 37). The reasons for this increase may depend on host factors (e.g., genetic disposition) or on environmental factors like air pollution or contact with allergens (6, 22, 29). Physical exercise is probably the most common trigger for brief episodes of symptoms, and is assumed to induce airflow limitations in most asthmatic children and young adults (16, 24, 29, 33). Exercise-induced asthma (EIA) is defined as an intermittent narrowing of the airways, generally associated with respiratory symptoms (chest tightness, cough, wheezing and dyspnoea), occurring after 3 to 10 minutes of vigorous exercise with a maximal severity during 5 to 15 minutes after the end of the exercise (9, 14, 16, 24, 33). The definitive diagnosis of EIA is confirmed by the measurement of pre- and post-exercise expiratory flows documenting either a 15% fall in the forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), or a ≥15 to 20% fall in peak expiratory flow (PEF) (9, 24, 29). Some types of physical exercise have been associated with the occurrence of bronchial symptoms and asthma (5, 15, 17). For instance, demanding activities such as basketball or soccer could cause more severe attacks than less vigorous ones such as baseball or jogging (33). The mechanisms of exercise-induced airflow limitations seem to be related to changes in the respiratory mucosa induced by hyperventilation (9, 29). The heat loss from the airways during exercise, and possibly its post-exercise rewarming may contribute to the exercise-induced bronchoconstriction (EIB) (27). Additionally, the concomitant dehydration from the respiratory mucosa during exercise leads to an increased interstitial osmolarity, which may also contribute to bronchoconstriction (4, 36). So, the risk of EIB in asthmatically predisposed subjects seems to be higher with greater ventilation rates and the cooler and drier the inspired air is (23). The incidence of EIA in physically demanding coldweather sports like competitive figure skating and ice hockey has been found to occur in up to 30 to 35% of the participants (32). In contrast, swimming is often recommended to asthmatic individuals, because it improves the functionality of respiratory muscles and, moreover, it seems to have a concomitant beneficial effect on the prevalence of asthma exacerbations (14, 26), supporting the idea that the risk of EIB would be smaller in warm and humid environments. This topic, however, remains controversial since the chlorified water of swimming pools has been suspected as a potential trigger factor for some asthmatic patients (7, 8, 20, 21). In fact, the higher asthma incidence observed in industrialised countries has recently been linked to the exposition to chloride (7, 8, 30). Although clinical and epidemiological data suggest an influence of humidity and temperature of the inspired air on the bronchial response of asthmatic subjects during exercise, some of those studies did not accurately control the intensity of the exercise (2, 13), raising speculation of whether the experienced exercise overload was comparable for all subjects. Additionally, most of the studies did not include a control group (2, 10, 19, 39), which may lead to doubts about whether asthma per se has conditioned the observed results. Moreover, since the main targeted age group of these studies has been adults (10, 19, 39), any extrapolation to childhood/adolescence might be questionable regarding the different lung maturation. Considering the higher incidence of asthma in youngsters (30) and the fact that only the works of Amirav and coworkers (2, 3) have focused on this age group, a scarcity of scientific data can be identified. Additionally, since the main environmental trigger factors, i.e., temperature and humidity, were tested separately (10, 28, 39) it would be useful to analyse these two variables simultaneously because of their synergic effect on water and heat loss by the airways (31, 33). It also appears important to estimate the airway responsiveness to exercise within moderate environmental ranges of temperature and humidity, trying to avoid extreme temperatures and humidity conditions used by others (2, 3). So, the aim of this study was to analyse the influence of moderate changes in air temperature and humidity simultaneously on the acute ventilatory response to exercise in asthmatic children. To overcome the above referred to methodological limitations, we used a 15 minute progressive exercise trial on a cycle ergometer at 3 different workload intensities, and we collected data related to heart rate, respiratory quotient, minute ventilation and oxygen uptake in order to ensure that physiological exercise repercussions were the same in both environments. The tests were done in a “normal” climatic environment (in a gymnasium) and in a hot and humid environment (swimming pool); for the latter, direct chloride exposition was avoided.

Gaseificação de resíduos: uma alternativa de gestão de resíduos sólidos urbanos na Região Autónoma dos Açores

Dissertação de Mestrado, Ambiente, Saúde e Segurança, 18 de Fevereiro de 2011, Universidade dos Açores.

FASL polymorphism is associated with response to bacillus Calmette-Guérin immunotherapy in bladder cancer

Objective Deregulation of FAS/FASL system may lead to immune escape and influence bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunotherapy outcome, which is currently the gold standard adjuvant treatment for high-risk non–muscle invasive bladder tumors. Among other events, functional promoter polymorphisms of FAS and FASL genes may alter their transcriptional activity. Therefore, we aim to evaluate the role of FAS and FASL polymorphisms in the context of BCG therapy, envisaging the validation of these biomarkers to predict response. Patients and methods DNA extracted from peripheral blood from 125 patients with bladder cancer treated with BCG therapy was analyzed by Polymerase Chain Reaction—Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism for FAS-670 A/G and FASL-844 T/C polymorphisms. FASL mRNA expression was analyzed by real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction. Results Carriers of FASL-844 CC genotype present a decreased recurrence-free survival after BCG treatment when compared with FASL-844 T allele carriers (mean 71.5 vs. 97.8 months, P = 0.030) and have an increased risk of BCG treatment failure (Hazard Ratio = 1.922; 95% Confidence Interval: [1.064–3.471]; P = 0.030). Multivariate analysis shows that FASL-844 T/C and therapeutics scheme are independent predictive markers of recurrence after treatment. The evaluation of FASL gene mRNA levels demonstrated that patients carrying FASL-844 CC genotype had higher FASL expression in bladder tumors (P = 0.0027). Higher FASL levels were also associated with an increased risk of recurrence after BCG treatment (Hazard Ratio = 2.833; 95% Confidence Interval: [1.012–7.929]; P = 0.047). FAS-670 A/G polymorphism analysis did not reveal any association with BCG therapy outcome. Conclusions Our results suggest that analysis of FASL-844 T/C, but not FAS-670 A/G polymorphisms, may be used as a predictive marker of response to BCG immunotherapy.

Fisheries Safety Management

Fisheries is one of the most dangerous professions in the world. Fatal accidents and injuries in the fisheries are characterized as well as particular circumstances that may cause or aggravate the risk of accidents. Aspects of safety management of fishing vessels are covered in this paper: areas of concern when doing a risk assessment in fishing vessels, fundamental elements on a safety management system for the fisheries and the need for international and national level instruments as well as legal and compulsory measures

Política(s) de saúde no trabalho : um inquérito sociológico às empresas portuguesas

Resumo Política(s) de saúde no trabalho: um inquérito sociológico às empresas portuguesas A literatura portuguesa sobre políticas, programas e actividades de Segurança, Higiene e Saúde no Trabalho (abreviadamente, SH&ST) é ainda escassa. Com este projecto de investigação pretende-se (i) colmatar essa lacuna, (ii) melhorar o conhecimento dos sistemas de gestão da saúde e segurança no trabalho e (iii) contribuir para a protecção e a promoção da saúde dos trabalhadores. Foi construída uma tipologia com cinco grupos principais de políticas, programas e actividades: A (Higiene & Segurança no Trabalho / Melhoria do ambiente físico de trabalho); B (Avaliação de saúde / Vigilância médica / Prestação de cuidados de saúde); C (Prevenção de comportamentos de risco/ Promoção de estilos de vida saudáveis); D (Intervenções a nível organizacional / Melhoria do ambiente psicossocial de trabalho); E (Actividades e programas sociais e de bem-estar). Havia uma lista de mais de 60 actividades possíveis, correspondendo a um índice de realização de 100%. Foi concebido e desenhado, para ser auto-administrado, um questionário sobre Política de Saúde no Local de Trabalho. Foram efectuados dois mailings, e um follow-up telefónico. O trabalho de campo decorreu entre a primavera de 1997 e o verão de 1998. A amostra (n=259) é considerada representativa das duas mil maiores empresas do país. Uma em cada quatro é uma multinacional. A taxa de sindicalização rondava os 30% da população trabalhadora, mas apenas 16% dos respondentes assinalou a existência de representantes dos trabalhadores eleitos para a SH&ST. A hipótese de investigação principal era a de que as empresas com um sistema integrado de gestão da SH&ST seriam também as empresas com um (i) maior número de políticas, programas e actividades de saúde; (ii) maior índice de saúde; (iii) maior índice de realização; e (iv) maior percentagem dos encargos com a SH&ST no total da massa salarial. As actividades de tipo A e B, tradicionalmente associadas à SH&ST, representavam, só por si, mais de 57% do total. Os resultados, correspondentes às respostas da Secção C do questionário, apontam, para (i) a hipervalorização dos exames de medicina do trabalho; e por outro para (ii) o subaproveitamento de um vasto conjunto de actividades (nomeadamente as de tipo D e E), que são correntemente levadas a cabo pelas empresas e que nunca ou raramente são pensadas em termos de protecção e promoção da saúde dos trabalhadores. As actividades e os programas de tipo C (Prevenção de comportamentos de risco/Promoção de estilos de vida saudáveis), ainda eram as menos frequentes entre nós, a seguir aos Programas sociais e de bem-estar (E). É a existência de sistemas de gestão integrados de SH&ST, e não o tamanho da empresa ou outra característica sociodemográfica ou técnico-organizacional, que permite predizer a frequência de políticas de saúde mais activas e mais inovadores. Os três principais motivos ou razões que levam as empresas portuguesas a investir na protecção e promoção da saúde dos seus trabalhadores eram, por ordem de frequência, (i) o absentismo em geral; (ii) a produtividade, qualidade e/ou competitividade, e (iii) a filosofia de gestão ou cultura organizacional. Quanto aos três principais benefícios que são reportados, surge em primeiro lugar (i) a melhoria da saúde dos trabalhadores, seguida da (ii) melhoria do ambiente do ambiente de trabalho e, por fim, (iii) a melhoria da produtividade, qualidade e/ou competitividade.Quanto aos três principais obstáculos que se põem, em geral, ao desenvolvimento das iniciativas de saúde, eles seriam os seguintes, na percepção dos respondentes: (i) a falta de empenho dos trabalhadores; (ii) a falta de tempo; e (iii) os problemas de articulação/ comunicação a nível interno. Por fim, (i) o empenho das estruturas hierárquicas; (ii) a cultura organizacional propícia; e (iii) o sentido de responsabilidade social surgem, destacadamente, como os três principais factores facilitadores do desenvolvimento da política de saúde no trabalho. Tantos estes factores como os obstáculos são de natureza endógena, susceptíveis portanto de controlo por parte dos gestores. Na sua generalidade, os resultados deste trabalho põem em evidência a fraqueza teóricometodológica de grande parte das iniciativas de saúde, realizadas na década de 1990. Muitas delas seriam medidas avulsas, que se inserem na gestão corrente das nossas empresas, e que dificilmente poderão ser tomadas como expressão de uma política de saúde no local de trabalho, (i) definida e assumida pela gestão de topo, (ii) socialmente concertada, (iii) coerente, (iv) baseada na avaliação de necessidades e expectativas de saúde dos trabalhadores, (v) divulgada, conhecida e partilhada por todos, (vi) contingencial, flexível e integrada, e, por fim, (vii) orientada por custos e resultados. Segundo a Declaração do Luxemburgo (1997), a promoção da saúde engloba o esforço conjunto dos empregadores, dos trabalhadores, do Estado e da sociedade civil para melhorar a segurança, a saúde e o bem-estar no trabalho, objectivo isso que pode ser conseguido através da (i) melhoria da organização e das demais condições de trabalho, da (ii) participação efectiva e concreta dos trabalhadores bem como do seu (iii) desenvolvimento pessoal. Abstract Health at work policies: a sociological inquiry into Portuguese corporations Portuguese literature on workplace health policies, programs and activities is still scarce. With this research project the author intends (i) to improve knowledge on the Occupational Health and Safety (shortly thereafter, OSH) management systems and (ii) contribute to the development of health promotion initiatives at a corporate level. Five categories of workplace health initiatives have been identified: (i) Occupational Hygiene and Safety / Improvement of Physical Working Environment (type A programs); (ii) Health Screening, Medical Surveillance and Other Occupational Health Care Provision (type B programs); (iii) Preventing Risk Behaviours / Promoting Healthy Life Styles (type C programs); (iv) Organisational Change / Improvement of Psycho-Social Working Environment (type D programs); and (v) Industrial and Social Welfare (type E programs). A mail questionnaire was sent to the Chief Executive Officer of the 1500 largest Portuguese companies, operating in the primary and secondary sectors (≥ 100 employees) or tertiary sector (≥ 75 employees). Response rate has reached about 20% (259 respondents, representing about 300 companies). Carried out between Spring 1997 and Summer 1998, the fieldwork has encompassed two direct mailings and one phone follow-up. Sample is considered to be representative of the two thousand largest companies. One in four is a multinational. Union membership rate is about 30%, but only 16% has reported the existence of a workers’ health and safety representative. The most frequent workplace health initiatives were those under the traditional scope of the OSH field (type A and B programs) (57% of total) (e.g., Periodical Medical Examinations; Individual Protective Equipment; Assessment of Working Ability). In SMEs (< 250) it was less likely to find out some time-consuming and expensive activities (e.g., Training on OSH knowledge and skills, Improvement of environmental parameters as ventilation, lighting, heating).There were significant differences in SMEs, when compared with the larger ones (≥ 250) concerning type B programs such as Periodical medical examinations, GP consultation, Nursing care, Other medical and non-medical specialities (e.g., psychiatrist, psychologist, ergonomist, physiotherapist, occupational social worker). With regard to type C programs, there were a greater percentage of programs centred on Substance abuse (tobacco, alcohol, and drug) than on Other health risk behaviours. SMEs representatives reported very few prevention- oriented programs in the field of Drug abuse, Nutrition, Physical activity, Off- job accidents, Blood pressure or Weight control. Frequency of type D programs included Training on Human Resources Management, Training on Organisational Behaviour, Total Quality Management, Job Design/Ergonomics, and Workplace rehabilitation. In general, implementation of this type of programs (Organisational Change / Improvement of Psychosocial Working Environment) is not largely driven by health considerations. Concerning Industrial and Social Welfare (Type E programs), the larger employers are in a better position than SMEs to offer to their employees a large spectrum of health resources and facilities (e.g., Restaurant, Canteen, Resting room, Transport, Infra-structures for physical activity, Surgery, Complementary social protection, Support to recreational and cultural activities, Magazine or newsletter, Intranet). Other workplace health promotion programs like Training on Stress Management, Employee Assistance Programs, or Self-help groups are uncommon in the Portuguese worksites. The existence of integrated OSH management systems, not the company size, is the main variable explaining the implementation of more active and innovative workplace health policies in Portugal. The three main prompting factors reported by employers for health protection and promotion initiatives are: (i) Employee absenteeism; (ii) Productivity, quality and/or competitiveness; and (iii) Corporate culture/management philosophy. On the other hand, (i) Improved staff’s health, (ii) Improved working environment and (iii) Improved productivity, quality and/or competitiveness were the three main benefits reported by companies’ representatives, as a result of successful implementation of workplace health initiatives. (i) Lack of staff commitment; (ii) Lack of time; and (iii) Problems of co-operation and communication within company or establishment (iii) are perceived to be the main barriers companies must cope with. Asked about the main facilitating factors, these companies have pointed out the following ones: (i) Top management commitment; (ii) Corporate culture; and (iii) Sense of social responsibility. This sociological research report shows the methodological weaknesses of workplace health initiatives, carried out by Portuguese companies during the last ‘90s. In many cases, these programs and actions were not part of a corporate health strategy and policy, (i) based on the assessment of workers’ health needs and expectancies, (ii) advocated by the employer or the chief executive officer, (ii) planned and implemented with the staff consultation and participation or (iv) evaluated according to a cost-benefit analysis. In short, corporate health policy and action were still rather based on more traditional OSH approaches and should be reoriented towards Workplace Health Promotion (WHP) approach. According to the Luxembourg Declaration of Workplace Health Promotion in the European Union (1997), WHP is “a combination of: (i) improving the work organisation and environment; (ii) promoting active participation; (iii) encouraging personal development”.Résumée Politique(s) de santé au travail: une enquête sociologique aux entreprises portugaises Au Portugal on ne sait presque rien des politiques de santé au travail, adoptés par les entreprises. Avec ce projet de recherche, on veut (i) améliorer la connaissance sur les systèmes de gestion de la santé et de la sécurité au travail et, au même temps, (ii) contribuer au développement de la promotion de la santé des travailleurs. Une typologie a été usée pour identifier les politiques, programmes et actions de santé au travail: A. Amélioration des conditions de travail / Sécurité au travail; B. Médecine du travail /Santé au travail; C. Prévention des comportements de risque / Promotion de styles de vie sains; D. Interventions organisationnelles / Amélioration des facteurs psychosociaux au travail; E. Gestion de personnel et bien-être social. Un questionnaire postal a été envoyé au représentant maximum des grandes entreprises portugaises, industrielles (≥ 100 employés) ou des services (≥ 75 employés). Le taux de réponse a été environ 20% (259 répondants, concernant trois centaines d’entreprises et d’établissements). La recherche de champ, conduite du printemps 1997 à l’été 1998, a compris deux enquêtes postales et un follow-up téléphonique. L´échantillon est représentatif de la population des deux miles plus grandes entreprises. Un quart sont des multinationales. Le taux de syndicalisation est d’environ 30%. Toutefois, il y a seulement 16% de lieux de travail avec des représentants du personnel pour la santé et sécurité au travail. Les initiatives de santé au travail les plus communes sont celles concernant le domaine plus traditionnel (types A et B) (57% du total): par exemple, les examens de médecine du travail, l’équipement de protection individuelle, les tests d’aptitude au travail. En ce qui concerne les programmes de type C, les plus fréquents sont le contrôle et la prévention des addictions (tabac, alcool, drogue). Les interventions dans le domaine de du système technique et organisationnelle du travail peuvent comprendre les courses de formation en gestion de ressources humaines ou en psychosociologie des organisations, l’ergonomie, le travail posté ou la gestion de la qualité totale. En général, la protection et la promotion de la santé des travailleurs ne sont pas prises en considération dans l’implémentation des initiatives de type D. Il y a des différences quand on compare les grandes entreprises et les moyennes en matière de politique de gestion du personnel e du bien-être (programmes de type E, y compris l’allocation de ressources humaines ou logistiques comme, par exemple, restaurant, journal d’entreprise, transports, installations et équipements sportifs). D’autres activités de promotion de la santé au travail comme la formation en gestion du stress, les programmes d’ assistance aux employés, ou les groupes de soutien et d’auto-aide sont encore très peu fréquents dans les entreprises portugaises. C’est le système intégré de gestion de la santé et de la sécurité au travail, et non pas la taille de l’entreprise, qui aide à prédire l’existence de politiques actives et innovatrices dans ce domaine. Les trois facteurs principaux qui encouragent les actions de santé (prompting factors, en anglais) sont (i) l’absentéisme (y compris la maladie), (ii) les problèmes liés à la productivité, qualité et/ou la compétitivité, et aussi (iii) la culture de l’entreprise/philosophie de gestion. Du coté des bénéfices, on a obtenu surtout l’amélioration (i) de la santé du personnel, (ii) des conditions de travail, et (iii) de la productivité, qualité et/ou compétitivité.Les facteurs qui facilitent les actions de santé au travail sont (i) l’engagement de la direction, (ii) la culture de l’entreprise, et (iii) le sens de responsabilité sociale. Par contre, les obstacles à surmonter, selon les organisations qui ont répondu au questionnaire, seraient surtout (i) le manque d’engagement des travailleurs et de leur représentants, (ii) le temps insuffisant, et (iii) les problèmes de articulation/communication au niveau interne de l’entreprise/établissement. Ce travail de recherche sociologique montre la faiblesse méthodologique des services et activités de santé et sécurité au travail, mis en place par les entreprises portugaises dans les années de 1990, à la suite des accords de concertation sociale de 1991. Dans beaucoup de cas, (i) ces politiques de santé ne font pas partie encore d’un système intégré de gestion, (ii) il n’a pas d’évaluation des besoins et des expectatives des travailleurs, (iii) c’est très bas ou inexistant le niveau de participation du personnel, (iv) on ne fait pas d’analyse coût-bénéfice. On peut conclure que les politiques de santé au travail sont plus proches de la médecine du travail et de la sécurité au travail que de la promotion de la santé des travailleurs. Selon la Déclaration du Luxembourg sur la Promotion de la Santé au Lieu de Travail dans la Communauté Européenne (1997), celle-ci « comprend toutes les mesures des employeurs, des employés et de la société pour améliorer l'état de santé et le bien être des travailleurs » e « ceci peut être obtenu par la concentration des efforts dans les domaines suivants: (i) amélioration de l'organisation du travail et des conditions de travail ; (ii) promotion d'une participation active des collaborateurs ; (iii) renforcement des compétences personnelles ».

Response rate in the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents – ERICA

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the response rate and characteristics of people who either took part or not in from the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA) , according to information subsets. METHODS ERICA is a school-based, nation-wide investigation with a representative sample of 12 to 17-year-old adolescents attending public or private schools in municipalities with over 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil. Response rate of eligible subjects were calculated according to macro-regions, sex, age, and type of school (public or private). We also calculated the percentages of replacement schools in comparison with the ones originally selected as per the sample design, according to the types of schools in the macro-regions. The subjects and non-subjects were compared according to sex, age, and average body mass indices (kg/m2). RESULTS We had 102,327 eligible adolescents enrolled in the groups drawn. The highest percentage of complete information was obtained for the subset of the questionnaire (72.9%). Complete information regarding anthropometric measurements and the ones from the questionnaire were obtained for 72.0% of the adolescents, and the combination of these data with the 24-hour dietary recall were obtained for 70.3% of the adolescents. Complete information from the questionnaire plus biochemical blood evaluation data were obtained for 52.5% of the morning session adolescents (selected for blood tests). The response percentage in private schools was higher than the one in public schools for most of the combination of information. The ratio of older and male adolescents non-participants was higher than the ratio among participants. CONCLUSIONS The response rate for non-invasive procedures was high. The response rate for blood collection – an invasive procedure that requires a 12-hour fasting period and the informed consent form from legal guardians – was lower. The response rate observed in public schools was lower than in the private ones, and that may reflect lower school frequency of registered students.

Risco de crédito na banca face ao novo enquadramento normativo em contexto de crise : o caso do crédito a particulares

Mestrado em Auditoria

Integrated ecological-economic modelling and assessment aproach for coastal ecosystem management

Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Sciences and Technology, New University of Lisbon, for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Sciences

Decision Support Concerning Demand Response Programs Design and Use – A Conceptual Framework and Simulation Tool

Demand response can play a very relevant role in the context of power systems with an intensive use of distributed energy resources, from which renewable intermittent sources are a significant part. More active consumers participation can help improving the system reliability and decrease or defer the required investments. Demand response adequate use and management is even more important in competitive electricity markets. However, experience shows difficulties to make demand response be adequately used in this context, showing the need of research work in this area. The most important difficulties seem to be caused by inadequate business models and by inadequate demand response programs management. This paper contributes to developing methodologies and a computational infrastructure able to provide the involved players with adequate decision support on demand response programs and contracts design and use. The presented work uses DemSi, a demand response simulator that has been developed by the authors to simulate demand response actions and programs, which includes realistic power system simulation. It includes an optimization module for the application of demand response programs and contracts using deterministic and metaheuristic approaches. The proposed methodology is an important improvement in the simulator while providing adequate tools for demand response programs adoption by the involved players. A machine learning method based on clustering and classification techniques, resulting in a rule base concerning DR programs and contracts use, is also used. A case study concerning the use of demand response in an incident situation is presented.