815 resultados para Relative risk aversion


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OBJETIVOAnalisar os efeitos de 20 semanas de treinamento concorrente sobre as variáveis de composição corporal, perfil lipídico e diagnóstico da esteatose hepática em adolescentes obesos.MÉTODOSRealizou-se um ensaio clínico aberto com 34 adolescentes obesos com idades entre 12 e 15 anos. Foram analisados gordura corporal total e de tronco, colesterol total e suas frações (HDL, LDL e VLDL) e triglicérides, sendo realizado exame de ultrassonografia de abdome superior para diagnosticar esteatose hepática. Os participantes foram submetidos ao treinamento concorrente (associação de treino com pesos e exercício aeróbio) três vezes por semana, com duração de uma hora-aula durante 20 semanas. Para o tratamento estatístico, foram realizados o teste t de Student pareado e a análise de frequência, a fim de verificar as reduções relativa e absoluta do diagnóstico da esteatose hepática, adotando-se p<0,05.RESULTADOSOs adolescentes estudados apresentaram melhoras significativas da composição corporal, com diminuição do percentual de gordura total, da massa gorda total, da gordura de tronco e do aumento da massa magra, além de redução do tamanho dos lóbulos do fígado, dos índices de prevalência da esteatose hepática, do colesterol total e LDL-colesterol.CONCLUSÕESO treinamento concorrente foi efetivo por promover melhorias significativas de variáveis da composição corporal e do perfil lipídico, além de reduzir a prevalência da esteatose hepática.

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A central question in evolutionary biology is how interactions between organisms and the environment shape genetic differentiation. The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused variable population declines in the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis); thus, disease has potentially shaped, or been shaped by, host genetic diversity. Environmental factors can also influence both amphibian immunity and Bd virulence, confounding our ability to assess the genetic effects on disease dynamics. Here, we used genetics, pathogen dynamics, and environmental data to characterize L.yavapaiensis populations, estimate migration, and determine relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors in predicting Bd dynamics. We found that the two uninfected populations belonged to a single genetic deme, whereas each infected population was genetically unique. We detected an outlier locus that deviated from neutral expectations and was significantly correlated with mortality within populations. Across populations, only environmental variables predicted infection intensity, whereas environment and genetics predicted infection prevalence, and genetic diversity alone predicted mortality. At one locality with geothermally elevated water temperatures, migration estimates revealed source-sink dynamics that have likely prevented local adaptation. We conclude that integrating genetic and environmental variation among populations provides a better understanding of Bd spatial epidemiology, generating more effective conservation management strategies for mitigating amphibian declines.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The aim of this study was to analyze the association between risk behaviors and adiposity indicators in adolescents and to discuss some methodological aspects related to this relationship. We evaluated 1,321 adolescents (55.2% female) aged 10-16 years. Relative body fat (%fat) by measurement of triceps and subscapular skinfold thickness and waist circumference (WC) were used as total and central adiposity indicators, respectively. Physical inactivity, time spent in front of the TV, the consumption of soda and/or chocolate, alcohol, and tobacco smoking were analyzed as risk behaviors. Information about the socioeconomic status (categorized into three levels) and nutritional status of the mother (overweight or normal weight) were used as adjustment factors in the analyses of prevalence ratio (PR) of the outcomes and their associated 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The chi-square test and Poisson regression were used for statistical analyses. Low associations were found between risk behaviors and adiposity indicators. Tobacco smoking was the most positively correlated behavior with adiposity in girls (%fat: PR = 1.61; 95% CI = 1.04-2.47; WC: PR = 1.90; 95% CI = 1.17-3.08) and in adolescents whose mothers were normal weight (%fat: PR = 2.31; 95% CI = 1.33-4.03; WC: PR: 2.31; CI: 1.19-4.46). Additionally, as an important methodological issue, we highlighted the assessment of risk behaviors in adolescents as crucial to producing more robust evidence on the subject. Of the investigated behaviors, we concluded that tobacco smoking is the behavior most associated with adiposity indicators.

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Land development in the vicinity of airports often leads to land-use that can attract birds that are hazardous to aviation operations. For this reason, certain forms of land-use have traditionally been discouraged within prescribed distances of Canadian airports. However, this often leads to an unrealistic prohibition of land-use in the vicinity of airports located in urban settings. Furthermore, it is often unclear that the desired safety goals have been achieved. This paper describes a model that was created to assist in the development of zoning regulations for a future airport site in Canada. The framework links land-use to bird-related safety-risks and aircraft operations by categorizing the predictable relationships between: (i) different land uses found in urbanized and urbanizing settings near airports; (ii) bird species; and (iii) the different safety-risks to aircraft during various phases of flight. The latter is assessed relative to the runway approach and departure paths. Bird species are ranked to reflect the potential severity of an impact with an aircraft (using bird weight, flocking characteristics, and flight behaviours). These criteria are then employed to chart bird-related safety-risks relative to runway reference points. Each form of land-use is categorized to reflect the degree to which it attracts hazardous bird species. From this information, hazard and risk matrices have been developed and applied to the future airport setting, thereby providing risk-based guidance on appropriate land-uses that range from prohibited to acceptable. The framework has subsequently been applied to an existing Canadian airport, and is currently being adapted for national application. The framework provides a risk-based and science-based approach that offers municipalities and property owner’s flexibility in managing the risks to aviation related to their land use.

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Background: Arboviral diseases are major global public health threats. Yet, our understanding of infection risk factors is, with a few exceptions, considerably limited. A crucial shortcoming is the widespread use of analytical methods generally not suited for observational data - particularly null hypothesis-testing (NHT) and step-wise regression (SWR). Using Mayaro virus (MAYV) as a case study, here we compare information theory-based multimodel inference (MMI) with conventional analyses for arboviral infection risk factor assessment. Methodology/Principal Findings: A cross-sectional survey of anti-MAYV antibodies revealed 44% prevalence (n = 270 subjects) in a central Amazon rural settlement. NHT suggested that residents of village-like household clusters and those using closed toilet/latrines were at higher risk, while living in non-village-like areas, using bednets, and owning fowl, pigs or dogs were protective. The "minimum adequate" SWR model retained only residence area and bednet use. Using MMI, we identified relevant covariates, quantified their relative importance, and estimated effect-sizes (beta +/- SE) on which to base inference. Residence area (beta(Village) = 2.93 +/- 0.41; beta(Upland) = -0.56 +/- 0.33, beta(Riverbanks) = -2.37 +/- 0.55) and bednet use (beta = -0.95 +/- 0.28) were the most important factors, followed by crop-plot ownership (beta = 0.39 +/- 0.22) and regular use of a closed toilet/latrine (beta = 0.19 +/- 0.13); domestic animals had insignificant protective effects and were relatively unimportant. The SWR model ranked fifth among the 128 models in the final MMI set. Conclusions/Significance: Our analyses illustrate how MMI can enhance inference on infection risk factors when compared with NHT or SWR. MMI indicates that forest crop-plot workers are likely exposed to typical MAYV cycles maintained by diurnal, forest dwelling vectors; however, MAYV might also be circulating in nocturnal, domestic-peridomestic cycles in village-like areas. This suggests either a vector shift (synanthropic mosquitoes vectoring MAYV) or a habitat/habits shift (classical MAYV vectors adapting to densely populated landscapes and nocturnal biting); any such ecological/adaptive novelty could increase the likelihood of MAYV emergence in Amazonia.

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La ricerca è strutturata in due sezioni: nella prima, dopo una premessa storica sul suicidio ed una lettura dei relativi dati statistici italiani integrata dall’analisi delle principali teorie sociologiche e dei principali aspetti psicopatologici e di psicologia clinica, vengono esaminati i risultati forniti da numerosi studi scientifici sul tema complementare delle morti equivoche, con particolare riferimento alle categorie a rischio rappresentate da anziani, carcerati, piloti di aerei, soggetti dediti a pratiche di asfissia autoerotica o roulette russa, istigatori delle forze di polizia e suicida stradali. Successivamente sono esaminati gli aspetti investigativi e medico-legali in tema di suicidi e morti equivoche con particolare riferimento alla tecnica dell’autopsia psicologica analizzandone le origini ed evoluzioni, il suo ambito di utilizzo ed i relativi aspetti metodologici. Nella seconda sezione del lavoro il tema dei suicidi e delle morti equivoche viene approfondito grazie all’apporto di professionisti di discipline diverse esperti in materia di autopsia psicologica ed indagini giudiziarie. A questi è stata presentata, con l’utilizzo della tecnica qualitativa “Dephi, una iniziale ipotesi di protocollo di autopsia psicologica, con le relative modalità applicative, al fine di procedere ad una sua revisione ed adattamento alle esigenze operative italiane grazie alle specifiche esperienze professionali e multidisciplinari maturate dagli esperti. I dati raccolti hanno permesso di giungere alla formulazione di un protocollo di autopsia psicologica, basato sulla elaborazione di domande generali, specifiche e conclusive, a risposta aperta, che possono esser formulate, secondo le modalità previste, alle persone affettivamente significative per la vittima nei confronti della quale si intende procedere con tale strumento investigativo.

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Questo lavoro di tesi muove da tematiche relative alla sicurezza IT e risulta dagli otto mesi di lavoro all’interno della funzione Technical Security di Telecom Italia Information Technology. Il compito primario di questa unità di business è ridurre il rischio informatico dei sistemi di Telecom Italia per mezzo dell’attuazione del processo di ICT Risk Management, che coinvolge l’intera organizzazione ed è stato oggetto di una riprogettazione nel corso del 2012. Per estendere tale processo a tutti i sistemi informatici, nello specifico a quelli caratterizzati da non conformità, all’inizio del 2013 è stato avviato il Programma Strutturato di Sicurezza, un aggregato di quattro progetti dalla durata triennale particolarmente articolato e complesso. La pianificazione di tale Programma ha visto coinvolto, tra gli altri, il team di cui ho fatto parte, che ha collaborato con Telecom Italia assolvendo alcune delle funzioni di supporto tipiche dei Project Management Office (PMO).

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La stima della frequenza di accadimento di eventi incidentali di tipo random da linee e apparecchiature è in generale effettuata sulla base delle informazioni presenti in banche dati specializzate. I dati presenti in tali banche contengono informazioni relative ad eventi incidentali avvenuti in varie tipologie di installazioni, che spaziano dagli impianti chimici a quelli petrolchimici. Alcune di queste banche dati risultano anche piuttosto datate, poiché fanno riferimento ad incidenti verificatisi ormai molto addietro negli anni. Ne segue che i valori relativi alle frequenze di perdita forniti dalle banche dati risultano molto conservativi. Per ovviare a tale limite e tenere in conto il progresso tecnico, la linea guida API Recommended Pratice 581, pubblicata nel 2000 e successivamente aggiornata nel 2008, ha introdotto un criterio per determinare frequenze di perdita specializzate alla realtà propria impiantistica, mediante l’ausilio di coefficienti correttivi che considerano il meccanismo di guasto del componente, il sistema di gestione della sicurezza e l’efficacia dell’attività ispettiva. Il presente lavoro di tesi ha lo scopo di mettere in evidenza l’evoluzione dell’approccio di valutazione delle frequenze di perdita da tubazione. Esso è articolato come descritto nel seguito. Il Capitolo 1 ha carattere introduttivo. Nel Capitolo 2 è affrontato lo studio delle frequenze di perdita reperibili nelle banche dati generaliste. Nel Capitolo 3 sono illustrati due approcci, uno qualitativo ed uno quantitativo, che permettono di determinare le linee che presentano priorità più alta per essere sottoposte all’attività ispettiva. Il Capitolo 4 è dedicato alla descrizione della guida API Recomended Practice 581. L’applicazione ad un caso di studio dei criteri di selezione delle linee illustrati nel Capitolo 3 e la definizione delle caratteristiche dell’attività ispettiva secondo la linea guida API Recomended Practice 581 sono illustrati nel Capitolo 5. Infine nel Capitolo 6 sono rese esplicite le considerazioni conclusive dello studio effettuato.

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Since 2007, more than 250,000 American students have studied abroad annually for a semester or more. While there are obvious benefits associated with study abroad programs, personal risks (including interpersonal victimization such as sexual and physical assault) occurring during the experience have been anecdotally reported but not systematically assessed. This study is the first to investigate the possibility of increased risk for sexual assault in female undergraduates while abroad. Two hundred eighteen female undergraduates completed a modified version of the Sexual Experiences Survey (SES: Koss et al., 2007) about their sexual experiences abroad and on campus. Findings indicate increased risk for sexual assault while abroad relative to on-campus rates, particularly in non-English speaking countries. Study abroad programs should consider educating students about increased risk and develop response protocols when sexual assaults happen while abroad.

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Learned irrelevance (LIrr) refers to a form of selective learning that develops as a result of prior noncorrelated exposures of the predicted and predictor stimuli. In learning situations that depend on the associative link between the predicted and predictor stimuli, LIrr is expressed as a retardation of learning. It represents a form of modulation of learning by selective attention. Given the relevance of selective attention impairment to both positive and cognitive schizophrenia symptoms, the question remains whether LIrr impairment represents a state (relating to symptom manifestation) or trait (relating to schizophrenia endophenotypes) marker of human psychosis. We examined this by evaluating the expression of LIrr in an associative learning paradigm in (1) asymptomatic first-degree relatives of schizophrenia patients (SZ-relatives) and in (2) individuals exhibiting prodromal signs of psychosis ("ultrahigh risk" [UHR] patients) in each case relative to demographically matched healthy control subjects. There was no evidence for aberrant LIrr in SZ-relatives, but LIrr as well as associative learning were attenuated in UHR patients. It is concluded that LIrr deficiency in conjunction with a learning impairment might be a useful state marker predictive of psychotic state but a relatively weak link to a potential schizophrenia endophenotype.

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The parasite Echinococcus multilocularis was first detected in The Netherlands in 1996 and repeated studies have shown that the parasite subsequently spread in the local population of foxes in the province of Limburg. It was not possible to quantify the human risk of alveolar echinococcosis because no relationship between the amount of parasite eggs in the environment and the probability of infection in humans was known. Here, we used the spread of the parasite in The Netherlands as a predictor, together with recently published historical records of the epidemiology of alveolar echinococcosis in Switzerland, to achieve a relative quantification of the risk. Based on these analyses, the human risk in Limburg was simulated and up to three human cases are predicted by 2018. We conclude that the epidemiology of alveolar echinococcosis in The Netherlands might have changed from a period of negligible risk in the past to a period of increasing risk in the forthcoming years.

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Knowledge on the relative importance of alternative sources of human campylobacteriosis is important in order to implement effective disease prevention measures. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of three key exposure pathways (travelling abroad, poultry meat, pet contact) for different patient age groups in Switzerland. With a stochastic exposure model data on Campylobacter incidence for the years 2002-2007 were linked with data for the three exposure pathways and the results of a case-control study. Mean values for the population attributable fractions (PAF) over all age groups and years were 27% (95% CI 17-39) for poultry consumption, 27% (95% CI 22-32) for travelling abroad, 8% (95% CI 6-9) for pet contact and 39% (95% CI 25-50) for other risk factors. This model provided robust results when using data available for Switzerland, but the uncertainties remained high. The output of the model could be improved if more accurate input data are available to estimate the infection rate per exposure. In particular, the relatively high proportion of cases attributed to 'other risk factors' requires further attention.

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Published opinions regarding the outcomes and complications in older patients have a broad spectrum and there is a disagreement whether surgery in older patients entails a higher risk. Therefore this study examines the risk of surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis relative to age in the pooled data set of the Spine Tango registry.

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Objectives: Neurofunctional alterations are correlates of vulnerability to psychosis, as well as of the disorder itself. How these abnormalities relate to different probabilities for later transition to psychosis is unclear. We investigated vulnerability- versus disease-related versus resilience biomarkers of psychosis during working memory (WM) processing in individuals with an at-risk mental state (ARMS). Experimental design: Patients with “first-episode psychosis” (FEP, n = 21), short-term ARMS (ARMS-ST, n = 17), long-term ARMS (ARMS-LT, n = 16), and healthy controls (HC, n = 20) were investigated with an n-back WM task. We examined functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) data in conjunction using biological parametric mapping (BPM) toolbox. Principal observations: There were no differences in accuracy, but the FEP and the ARMS-ST group had longer reaction times compared with the HC and the ARMS-LT group. With the 2-back > 0-back contrast, we found reduced functional activation in ARMS-ST and FEP compared with the HC group in parietal and middle frontal regions. Relative to ARMS-LT individuals, FEP patients showed decreased activation in the bilateral inferior frontal gyrus and insula, and in the left prefrontal cortex. Compared with the ARMS-LT, the ARMS-ST subjects showed reduced activation in the right inferior frontal gyrus and insula. Reduced insular and prefrontal activation was associated with gray matter volume reduction in the same area in the ARMS-LT group. Conclusions: These findings suggest that vulnerability to psychosis was associated with neurofunctional alterations in fronto-temporo-parietal networks in a WM task. Neurofunctional differences within the ARMS were related to different duration of the prodromal state and resilience factors