Complexity of risk: Mixed methods approach to understanding youth risk and insecurity in post-conflict settings

In settings of intergroup conflict, identifying contextually-relevant risk factors for youth development in an important task. In Vukovar, Croatia, a city devastated during the war in former Yugoslavia, ethno-political tensions remain. The current study utilized a mixed method approach to identify two salient community-level risk factors (ethnic tension and general antisocial behavior) and related emotional insecurity responses (ethnic and non-ethnic insecurity) among youth in Vukovar. In Study 1, focus group discussions (N=66) with mother, fathers, and adolescents 11 to 15-years-old were analyzed using the Constant Comparative Method, revealing two types of risk and insecurity responses. In Study 2, youth (N=227, 58% male, M=15.88 SD=1.12 years old) responded to quantitative scales developed from the focus groups; discriminate validity was demonstrated and path analyses established predictive validity between each type of risk and insecurity. First, community ethnic tension (i.e., threats related to war/ethnic identity) significantly predicted ethnic insecurity for all youth (β=.41, p<.001). Second, experience with community antisocial behavior (i.e., general crime found in any context) predicted non-ethnic community insecurity for girls (β=.32, p<.05), but not for boys. These findings are the first to show multiple forms of emotional insecurity at the community level; implications for future research are discussed.

A New Role for Management of the Social Sciences in an Age of Complexity

A particular scientific world view has become dominant, influential and successful in modern sciences today. Science and technology have transformed the way we view ourselves, our societies and our place in the cosmos. However, just as science and technology seem to be at the peak of their power, unexpected problems are disrupting the sciences from within. This reflects a deeper and more serious problem regarding scientific inquiry. Science is being held back by old assumptions that have become dogmas, the biggest of which is that science already knows all the answers, and only the details need to be worked out. A transformational paradigm shift is required from a mechanistic world view to an organic world view to better address the challenges of the new millenium.

Context, Complexity and Contestation: Birmingham’s Agreed Syllabuses for Religious Education since the 1970s

The present article offers an historical perspective on the 1975, 1995 and 2007 Birmingham Agreed Syllabuses for Religious Education. It draws upon historical evidence uncovered as part of ‘The hidden history of curriculum change in reli- gious education in English schools, 1969–1979’ project, and curriculum history theories, especially David Labaree’s observations about the distance between the ‘rhetorical’ and ‘received’ curricula. We argue that, contrary to the existing his- toriography, curriculum change in religious education (RE) has been evolution- ary not revolutionary. Multiple reasons are posited to explain this, not least among which is the capacity and agency of teachers. Furthermore, we argue that ongoing debates about the nature and purpose of RE, as exemplified in the Birmingham context, reflect the multiple expectations that religious educators and other stakeholders had, and continue to have, of the curriculum subject. These debates contribute to the inertia evident in the implementation of RE cur- riculum reforms. A consciousness of the history of RE enables curriculum con- testations to be contextualised and understood, and, thereby, provides important insights which can be applied to ongoing and future debates and developments.

The complexity of Drosophila innate immunity

Metazoans rely on efficient mechanisms to oppose infections caused by pathogens. The immediate and first-line defense mechanism(s) in metazoans, referred to as the innate immune system, is initiated upon recognition of microbial intruders by germline encoded receptors and is executed by a set of rapid effector mechanisms. Adaptive immunity is restricted to vertebrate species and it is controlled and assisted by the innate immune system. Interestingly, most of the basic signaling cascades that regulate the primeval innate defense mechanism(s) have been well conserved during evolution, for instance between humans and the fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster. Being devoid of adaptive signaling and effector systems, Drosophila has become an established model system for studying pristine innate immune cascades and reactions. In general, an immune response is evoked when microorganisms pass the fruit fly’s physical barriers (e.g. cuticle, epithelial lining of gut and trachea), and it is mainly executed in the hemolymph, the equivalent of the mammalian blood. Innate immunity in the fruit fly consists of a phenoloxidase (PO) response, a cellular response (hemocytes), an antiviral response, and the NF-κB dependent production of antimicrobial peptides referred to as the humoral response. The JAK/STAT and Jun kinase signaling cascades are also implicated in the defence against pathogens.

Severus Snape : The Complexity and Unconventional Heroism of Severus Snape in the Harry Potter Books

Being an evildoer and being evil is not always the same thing; author J.K Rowling’s character Professor Severus Snape from the Harry Potter series is balancing on that very line. Although being unfair and mean to the protagonist Harry Potter all through the series, Professor Snape is revealed as a hero in the seventh book Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (2007). This essay focuses on some of the complex psychological reasons as to why Snape acts the way he does towards Harry and why many readers consider him to be just as great a hero as the protagonist. It argues that his difficult upbringing is the cause of his complexity and the series of books are analyzed from a structuralist perspective, using A.J Greimas’ actantial model and Frank Kermode’s theories about endings and plot twists. Snape’s hate for Harry’s father, caused by years of bullying, is examined as well as his love for Harry’s mother. This essay also discusses in what ways Snape’s change of allegiance, brought on by his eternal love for Harry’s mother, is a great aid in defeating the Dark Lord.

Estimation of the Crustal Bulk Properties Beneath Mainland Portugal from P-Wave Teleseismic Receiver Functions

In this work, we present results from teleseismic P-wave receiver functions (PRFs) obtained in Portugal, Western Iberia. A dense seismic station deployment conducted between 2010 and 2012, in the scope of the WILAS project and covering the entire country, allowed the most spatially extensive probing on the bulk crustal seismic properties of Portugal up to date. The application of the H-kappa stacking algorithm to the PRFs enabled us to estimate the crustal thickness (H) and the average crustal ratio of the P- and S-waves velocities V (p)/V (s) (kappa) for the region. Observations of Moho conversions indicate that this interface is relatively smooth with the crustal thickness ranging between 24 and 34 km, with an average of 30 km. The highest V (p)/V (s) values are found on the Mesozoic-Cenozoic crust beneath the western and southern coastal domain of Portugal, whereas the lowest values correspond to Palaeozoic crust underlying the remaining part of the subject area. An average V (p)/V (s) is found to be 1.72, ranging 1.63-1.86 across the study area, indicating a predominantly felsic composition. Overall, we systematically observe a decrease of V (p)/V (s) with increasing crustal thickness. Taken as a whole, our results indicate a clear distinction between the geological zones of the Variscan Iberian Massif in Portugal, the overall shape of the anomalies conditioned by the shape of the Ibero-Armorican Arc, and associated Late Paleozoic suture zones, and the Meso-Cenozoic basin associated with Atlantic rifting stages. Thickened crust (30-34 km) across the studied region may be inherited from continental collision during the Paleozoic Variscan orogeny. An anomalous crustal thinning to around 28 km is observed beneath the central part of the Central Iberian Zone and the eastern part of South Portuguese Zone.

On the extension complexity of combinatorial polytopes

In this paper we extend recent results of Fiorini et al. on the extension complexity of the cut polytope and related polyhedra. We first describe a lifting argument to show exponential extension complexity for a number of NP-complete problems including subset-sum and three dimensional matching. We then obtain a relationship between the extension complexity of the cut polytope of a graph and that of its graph minors. Using this we are able to show exponential extension complexity for the cut polytope of a large number of graphs, including those used in quantum information and suspensions of cubic planar graphs.

Influence of pharmacotherapy complexity on compliance with the therapeutic objectives for HIV+ patients on antiretroviral treatment concomitant with therapy for dyslipidemia: INCOFAR Project

Objectives: To analyze the relationship between pharmacotherapeutical complexity and compliance of therapeutic objectives in HIV+ patients on antiretroviral treatment and concomitant dyslipidemia therapy. Materials and methods: A retrospective observational study including HIV patients on stable antiretroviral treatment during the past 6 months, and dyslipidemia treatment between January and December, 2013. The complexity index was calculated with the tool developed by McDonald et al. Other variables analyzed were: age, gender, risk factor of HIV, smoking, alcoholism and drugs, psychiatric disorders, adherence to antiretroviral treatment and lipid lowering drugs, and clinical parameters (HIV viral load, CD4 count, plasma levels of total cholesterol, LDL, HDL, and triglycerides). In order to determine the predictive factors associated with the compliance of therapeutic objectives, univariate analysis was conducted through logistical regression, followed by a multivariate analysis. Results: The study included 89 patients; 56.8% of them met the therapeutic objectives for dyslipidemia. The complexity index was significantly higher (p = 0.02) in those patients who did not reach the objective values (median 51.8 vs. 38.9). Adherence to lipid lowering treatment was significantly associated with compliance of the therapeutic objectives established for dyslipidemia treatment. A 67.0% of patients met the objectives for their antiretroviral treatment; however, the complexity index was not significantly higher (p = 0.06) in those patients who did not meet said objectives. Conclusions: Pharmacotherapeutical complexity represents a key factor in terms of achieving health objectives in HIV+ patients on treatment for dyslipidemia.

An experiment on the parameter uncertainty of hydrological models with different levels of complexity in a climate change context

La possibilité d’estimer l’impact du changement climatique en cours sur le comportement hydrologique des hydro-systèmes est une nécessité pour anticiper les adaptations inévitables et nécessaires que doivent envisager nos sociétés. Dans ce contexte, ce projet doctoral présente une étude sur l’évaluation de la sensibilité des projections hydrologiques futures à : (i) La non-robustesse de l’identification des paramètres des modèles hydrologiques, (ii) l’utilisation de plusieurs jeux de paramètres équifinaux et (iii) l’utilisation de différentes structures de modèles hydrologiques. Pour quantifier l’impact de la première source d’incertitude sur les sorties des modèles, quatre sous-périodes climatiquement contrastées sont tout d’abord identifiées au sein des chroniques observées. Les modèles sont calés sur chacune de ces quatre périodes et les sorties engendrées sont analysées en calage et en validation en suivant les quatre configurations du Different Splitsample Tests (Klemeš, 1986;Wilby, 2005; Seiller et al. (2012);Refsgaard et al. (2014)). Afin d’étudier la seconde source d’incertitude liée à la structure du modèle, l’équifinalité des jeux de paramètres est ensuite prise en compte en considérant pour chaque type de calage les sorties associées à des jeux de paramètres équifinaux. Enfin, pour évaluer la troisième source d’incertitude, cinq modèles hydrologiques de différents niveaux de complexité sont appliqués (GR4J, MORDOR, HSAMI, SWAT et HYDROTEL) sur le bassin versant québécois de la rivière Au Saumon. Les trois sources d’incertitude sont évaluées à la fois dans conditions climatiques observées passées et dans les conditions climatiques futures. Les résultats montrent que, en tenant compte de la méthode d’évaluation suivie dans ce doctorat, l’utilisation de différents niveaux de complexité des modèles hydrologiques est la principale source de variabilité dans les projections de débits dans des conditions climatiques futures. Ceci est suivi par le manque de robustesse de l’identification des paramètres. Les projections hydrologiques générées par un ensemble de jeux de paramètres équifinaux sont proches de celles associées au jeu de paramètres optimal. Par conséquent, plus d’efforts devraient être investis dans l’amélioration de la robustesse des modèles pour les études d’impact sur le changement climatique, notamment en développant les structures des modèles plus appropriés et en proposant des procédures de calage qui augmentent leur robustesse. Ces travaux permettent d’apporter une réponse détaillée sur notre capacité à réaliser un diagnostic des impacts des changements climatiques sur les ressources hydriques du bassin Au Saumon et de proposer une démarche méthodologique originale d’analyse pouvant être directement appliquée ou adaptée à d’autres contextes hydro-climatiques.

The Borel Complexity of Isomorphism for Some First Order Theories

In this work we consider several instances of the following problem: "how complicated can the isomorphism relation for countable models be?"' Using the Borel reducibility framework, we investigate this question with regard to the space of countable models of particular complete first-order theories. We also investigate to what extent this complexity is mirrored in the number of back-and-forth inequivalent models of the theory. We consider this question for two large and related classes of theories. First, we consider o-minimal theories, showing that if T is o-minimal, then the isomorphism relation is either Borel complete or Borel. Further, if it is Borel, we characterize exactly which values can occur, and when they occur. In all cases Borel completeness implies lambda-Borel completeness for all lambda. Second, we consider colored linear orders, which are (complete theories of) a linear order expanded by countably many unary predicates. We discover the same characterization as with o-minimal theories, taking the same values, with the exception that all finite values are possible except two. We characterize exactly when each possibility occurs, which is similar to the o-minimal case. Additionally, we extend Schirrman's theorem, showing that if the language is finite, then T is countably categorical or Borel complete. As before, in all cases Borel completeness implies lambda-Borel completeness for all lambda.

Phobos: The design and implementation of embedded software for a low cost radar warning receiver

This portfolio thesis describes work undertaken by the author under the Engineering Doctorate program of the Institute for System Level Integration. It was carried out in conjunction with the sponsor company Teledyne Defence Limited. A radar warning receiver is a device used to detect and identify the emissions of radars. They were originally developed during the Second World War and are found today on a variety of military platforms as part of the platform’s defensive systems. Teledyne Defence has designed and built components and electronic subsystems for the defence industry since the 1970s. This thesis documents part of the work carried out to create Phobos, Teledyne Defence’s first complete radar warning receiver. Phobos was designed to be the first low cost radar warning receiver. This was made possible by the reuse of existing Teledyne Defence products, commercial off the shelf hardware and advanced UK government algorithms. The challenges of this integration are described and discussed, with detail given of the software architecture and the development of the embedded application. Performance of the embedded system as a whole is described and qualified within the context of a low cost system.

A novel Compound Elliptical-type Concentrator for parabolic primaries with tubular receiver

The Parabolic Trough (PT) is the most used concentrator in CSP (Concentrated Solar Power). However, this concentrator technology is facing a significant challenge to increase its overall efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Meanwhile, other low-cost solutions such as Fresnel concentrators are also being perceived as potentially attractive. In order to achieve the lower cost goal, new optical solutions can be considered, in parallel with improvements coming, for instance, through the use of new materials or manufacturing solutions. But conventional PTs can still be improved to yield, for instance, higher concentration values, a possible starting point for higher conversion efficiency. These new solutions, in turn, can also be useful for other technologies and applications (Fresnel Concentrators, Central Tower Receivers, etc.). However it is easier to develop and test these solutions in conjunction with parabolic primaries (continuum primary). And that is the topic of this paper: to present a new Compound Elliptical-type Concentrator for a parabolic primary with a tubular receiver. A comparison is made between this new concentrator and two other concentrators (a conventional PT concentrator and a XX SMS (Simultaneous Multiple Surface) concentrator), as well as a calculation of the total amount of collected energy (kW h) for a particular location, Faro (Portugal). The paper ends with a discussion of the results obtained, their impact and possible applications in the future.

Rangeland profitability in the northern Gulf region of Queensland: understanding beef business complexity and the subsequent impact on land resource management and environmental outcomes

The farm-gate value of extensive beef production from the northern Gulf region of Queensland, Australia, is ~$150 million annually. Poor profitability and declining equity are common issues for most beef businesses in the region. The beef industry relies primarily on native pasture systems and studies continue to report a decline in the condition and productivity of important land types in the region. Governments and Natural Resource Management groups are investing significant resources to restore landscape health and productivity. Fundamental community expectations also include broader environmental outcomes such as reducing beef industry greenhouse gas emissions. Whole-of-business analysis results are presented from 18 extensive beef businesses (producers) to highlight the complex social and economic drivers of management decisions that impact on the natural resource and environment. Business analysis activities also focussed on improving enterprise performance. Profitability, herd performance and greenhouse emission benchmarks are documented and discussed.