Statistical inference of OH concentrations and air mass dilution rates from successive observations of non-methane hydrocarbons in single air masses

Bayesian inference has been used to determine rigorous estimates of hydroxyl radical concentrations () and air mass dilution rates (K) averaged following air masses between linked observations of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) spanning the North Atlantic during the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation (ITCT)-Lagrangian-2K4 experiment. The Bayesian technique obtains a refined (posterior) distribution of a parameter given data related to the parameter through a model and prior beliefs about the parameter distribution. Here, the model describes hydrocarbon loss through OH reaction and mixing with a background concentration at rate K. The Lagrangian experiment provides direct observations of hydrocarbons at two time points, removing assumptions regarding composition or sources upstream of a single observation. The estimates are sharpened by using many hydrocarbons with different reactivities and accounting for their variability and measurement uncertainty. A novel technique is used to construct prior background distributions of many species, described by variation of a single parameter . This exploits the high correlation of species, related by the first principal component of many NMHC samples. The Bayesian method obtains posterior estimates of , K and following each air mass. Median values are typically between 0.5 and 2.0 × 106 molecules cm−3, but are elevated to between 2.5 and 3.5 × 106 molecules cm−3, in low-level pollution. A comparison of estimates from absolute NMHC concentrations and NMHC ratios assuming zero background (the “photochemical clock” method) shows similar distributions but reveals systematic high bias in the estimates from ratios. Estimates of K are ∼0.1 day−1 but show more sensitivity to the prior distribution assumed.

Competition in tree row agroforestry systems. 3. Soil water distribution and dynamics

The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that soil water content would vary spatially with distance from a tree row and that the effect would differ according to tree species. A field study was conducted on a kaolinitic Oxisol in the sub-humid highlands of western Kenya to compare soil water distribution and dynamics in a maize monoculture with that under maize (Zea mays L.) intercropped with a 3-year-old tree row of Grevillea robusta A. Cunn. Ex R. Br. (grevillea) and hedgerow of Senna spectabilis DC. (senna). Soil water content was measured at weekly intervals during one cropping season using a neutron probe. Measurements were made from 20 cm to a depth of 225 cm at distances of 75, 150, 300 and 525 cm from the tree rows. The amount of water stored was greater under the sole maize crop than the agroforestry systems, especially the grevillea-maize system. Stored soil water in the grevillea-maize system increased with increasing distance from the tree row but in the senna-maize system, it decreased between 75 and 300 cm from the hedgerow. Soil water content increased least and more slowly early in the season in the grevillea-maize system, and drying was also evident as the frequency of rain declined. Soil water content at the end of the cropping season was similar to that at the start of the season in the grevillea-maize system, but about 50 and 80 mm greater in the senna-maize and sole maize systems, respectively. The seasonal water balance showed there was 140 mm, of drainage from the sole maize system. A similar amount was lost from the agroforestry systems (about 160 mm in the grevillea-maize system and 145 mm in the senna-maize system) through drainage or tree uptake. The possible benefits of reduced soil evaporation and crop transpiration close to a tree row were not evident in the grevillea-maize system, but appeared to greatly compensate for water uptake losses in the senna-maize system. Grevillea, managed as a tree row, reduced stored soil water to a greater extent than senna, managed as a hedgerow.

Accounting for the economic risk, caused by variation in disease severity, in fungicide dose decisions: exemplified for Mycosphaerella graminicola on winter wheat

A method is presented to calculate economic optimum fungicide doses accounting for the risk-aversion of growers responding to variability in disease severity between crops. Simple dose-response and disease-yield loss functions are used to estimate net disease-related costs (fungicide cost, plus disease-induced yield loss) as a function of dose and untreated severity. With fairly general assumptions about the shapes of the probability distribution of disease severity and the other functions involved, we show that a choice of fungicide dose which minimises net costs on average across seasons results in occasional large net costs caused by inadequate control in high disease seasons. This may be unacceptable to a grower with limited capital. A risk-averse grower can choose to reduce the size and frequency of such losses by applying a higher dose as insurance. For example, a grower may decide to accept ‘high loss’ years one year in ten or one year in twenty (i.e. specifying a proportion of years in which disease severity and net costs will be above a specified level). Our analysis shows that taking into account disease severity variation and risk-aversion will usually increase the dose applied by an economically rational grower. The analysis is illustrated with data on septoria tritici leaf blotch of wheat caused by Mycosphaerella graminicola. Observations from untreated field plots at sites across England over three years were used to estimate the probability distribution of disease severities at mid-grain filling. In the absence of a fully reliable disease forecasting scheme, reducing the frequency of ‘high loss’ years requires substantially higher doses to be applied to all crops. Disease resistant cultivars reduce both the optimal dose at all levels of risk and the disease-related costs at all doses.

Genetic variation at flowering time loci in wild and cultivated barley

The worldwide spread of barley cultivation required adaptation to agricultural environments far distant from those found in its centre of domestication. An important component of this adaptation is the timing of flowering, achieved predominantly in response to day length and temperature. Here, we use a collection of cultivars, landraces and wild barley accessions to investigate the origins and distribution of allelic diversity at four major flowering time loci, mutations at which have been under selection during the spread of barley cultivation into Europe. Our findings suggest that while mutant alleles at the PPD-H1 and PPD-H2 photoperiod loci occurred pre-domestication, the mutant vernalization non-responsive alleles utilized in landraces and cultivars at the VRN-H1 and VRN-H2 loci occurred post-domestication. The transition from wild to cultivated barley is associated with a doubling in the number of observed multi-locus flowering-time haplotypes, suggesting that the resulting phenotypic variation has aided adaptation to cultivation in the diverse ecogeographic locations encountered. Despite the importance of early-flowering alleles during the domestication of barley in Europe, we show that novel VRN alleles associated with early flowering in wild barley have been lost in domesticates, highlighting the potential of wild germplasm as a source of novel allelic variation for agronomic traits.

Exploring variation in proanthocyanidin composition and content of sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia)

To maximise the potential benefits to ruminants from sainfoin, plant breeding should focus on developing varieties with predictable condensed tannin (CT) profiles. Little is known about whether and to what extent accession and environment influence sainfoin CT structures. We sought to investigate the likely extent of accession and environment effects on CT characteristics of sainfoin. Four single-flowering (Communis) accessions and two multiple-flowering (Bifera) accessions, grown at three sites and collected at two harvest times were used. Sainfoin CTs were characterised by thiolytic degradation and by high-performance liquid chromatography-gel permeation chromatography (HPLC-GPC). Also, CT concentration measured earlier by the HCl-butanol method was compared with that from thiolysis

Exploring variation in procyanidin composition and content of sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia)

Abstract BACKGROUND: To maximise the potential benefits to ruminants from sainfoin, plant breeding should focus on developing varieties with predictable condensed tannin (CT) profiles. Little is known about whether and to what extent accession and environment influence sainfoin CT structures. We sought to investigate the likely extent of accession and environment effects on CT characteristics of sainfoin. Four single-flowering (Communis) accessions and two multiple-flowering (Bifera) accessions, grown at three sites and collected at two harvest times were used. Sainfoin CTs were characterised by thiolytic degradation and by high-performance liquid chromatography-gel permeation chromatography (HPLC-GPC). Also, CT concentration measured earlier by the HCl-butanol method was compared with that from thiolysis. RESULTS: Thiolysis revealed that accession and harvest influenced most CT structural attributes. Bifera CTs eluted as single peaks (Mp  < 6220 Da) in HPLC-GPC across the two harvests and two sites, whereas Communis generated two to three CT peaks, which included a peak (Mp  ≤ 9066 Da) in the second harvest. A discrepancy was observed in CT concentrations measured by the two methods. CONCLUSION: CTs from Bifera accessions had more stable and predictable characteristics across harvests and sites and this could be of interest when breeding sainfoin. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

Environmental controls on the distribution and diversity of lentic Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) across an altitudinal gradient in tropical South America

To predict the response of aquatic ecosystems to future global climate change, data on the ecology and distribution of keystone groups in freshwater ecosystems are needed. In contrast to mid- and high-latitude zones, such data are scarce across tropical South America (Neotropics). We present the distribution and diversity of chironomid species using surface sediments of 59 lakes from the Andes to the Amazon (0.1–17°S and 64–78°W) within the Neotropics. We assess the spatial variation in community assemblages and identify the key variables influencing the distributional patterns. The relationships between environmental variables (pH, conductivity, depth, and sediment organic content), climatic data, and chironomid assemblages were assessed using multivariate statistics (detrended correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis). Climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) were most significant in describing the variance in chironomid assemblages. Temperature and precipitation are both predicted to change under future climate change scenarios in the tropical Andes. Our findings suggest taxa of Orthocladiinae, which show a preference to cold high-elevation oligotrophic lakes, will likely see range contraction under future anthropogenic-induced climate change. Taxa abundant in areas of high precipitation, such as Micropsectra and Phaenopsectra, will likely become restricted to the inner tropical Andes, as the outer tropical Andes become drier. The sensitivity of chironomids to climate parameters makes them important bio-indicators of regional climate change in the Neotropics. Furthermore, the distribution of chironomid taxa presented here is a vital first step toward providing urgently needed autecological data for interpreting fossil chironomid records of past ecological and climate change from the tropical Andes.

On Aspects of Mathematical Reasoning : Affect and Gender

This thesis explores two aspects of mathematical reasoning: affect and gender. I started by looking at the reasoning of upper secondary students when solving tasks. This work revealed that when not guided by an interviewer, algorithmic reasoning, based on memorising algorithms which may or may not be appropriate for the task, was predominant in the students reasoning. Given this lack of mathematical grounding in students reasoning I looked in a second study at what grounds they had for different strategy choices and conclusions. This qualitative study suggested that beliefs about safety, expectation and motivation were important in the central decisions made during task solving.  But are reasoning and beliefs gendered? The third study explored upper secondary school teachers conceptions about gender and students mathematical reasoning. In this study I found that upper secondary school teachers attributed gender symbols including insecurity, use of standard methods and imitative reasoning to girls and symbols such as multiple strategies especially on the calculator, guessing and chance-taking were assigned to boys. In the fourth and final study I found that students, both male and female, shared their teachers view of rather traditional feminities and masculinities. Remarkably however, this result did not repeat itself when students were asked to reflect on their own behaviour: there were some discrepancies between the traits the students ascribed as gender different and the traits they ascribed to themselves. Taken together the thesis suggests that, contrary to conceptions, girls and boys share many of the same core beliefs about mathematics, but much work is still needed if we should create learning environments that provide better opportunities for students to develop beliefs that guide them towards well-grounded mathematical reasoning. 

Pigmentation in Anuran Testes: Anatomical Pattern and Variation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Distribution of 45S and 5S rDNA sites in 23 species of Eleocharis (Cyperaceae)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Diurnal variation of zooplankton biochemical composition and biomass in plankton production tanks

The nutritional value of zooplankton (lipid and phosphorus contents) was analyzed in outdoor, plankton-culture tanks, to monitor the effects of diurnal variation and fertilization. Total lipid contents were significantly higher (average values of about 14% DW) for the treatment fertilized during the sampling week. A significantly highher total lipid concentrations generally coincided with high biomass of Moina sp. (Cladocera) and Thermocyclops sp. nauplii (Copepoda), which is probably related to zooplankton filtration rates. The values tended to be higher during the afternoon and the night. Phosphorus contents in the zooplanktonic population varied from 0.15 to 0.91% DW, with significant differences among the tanks. The zooplankton nutritional quality was greatly influenced by fertilization, which also determined the species composition in the tanks.

E-commerce environment and trade promotion for Latin America: policy implications from East Asian and advanced economies' experiences

Includes bibliography

Additions to the known distribution of Epipompilus aztecus (Cresson, 1869) and E. excelsus (Bradley, 1944) (Hymenoptera: Pompilidae)

Knowledge about the species distribution of Epipompilus Kohl, 1884, is largely based on the records from the species description. Recent efforts in South American bodiversity studies indicate that knowledge about the distribution of Epipompilus species in the region is in an early stage. Two new records of E. aztecus were obtained for the semideciduous Atlantic Forest, in central Brazil, and one record for the Amazonian Forest in northern Brazil, indicating that its distribution extends between Central and South America. The new records of E. excelsus were obtained mainly from the Atlantic Forest highlands, indicating that this species is commonly found in the southeastern South American Central Plateau and restricted to forest ecosystem of this region. © 2010 Eduardo Fernando dos Santos and Fernando Barbosa Noll.

Proposals for improvement of methodology and process of collecting and analyzing compatibility of power quality indicators in distribution systems

This article aims to present proposals for improvement of key standards and resolutions concerned about the methodology for calculating the indicator of total harmonic voltage distortion, and should contribute to the process of examining the compatibility of potentially disturbing loads in electric power quality in distribution systems. These proposals were drawn from the analysis of results from measurement campaigns conducted in a case study including analysis of the connection of a new induction furnace in a foundry served by a distributor of São Paulo state. A general historical situating the quality of electric energy in the electricity sector is presented, and methodological guidelines and procedures used in experimental trials are shown. The analysis and discussion of results are prepared to answer the main questions that arise during the implementation of standards, resolutions and procedures. © 2011 IEEE.

A proposal for reliability evaluation of components on electric power distribution system integrating probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems

The system reliability depends on the reliability of its components itself. Therefore, it is necessary a methodology capable of inferring the state of functionality of these components to establish reliable indices of quality. Allocation models for maintenance and protective devices, among others, have been used in order to improve the quality and availability of services on electric power distribution systems. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of distribution system components in an integrated way, using probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems to infer about the operation probability of each component. © 2012 IEEE.