Hybrid probabilistic wind power forecasting using temporally local Gaussian process

The demand for sustainable development has resulted in a rapid growth in wind power worldwide. Despite various approaches have been proposed to improve the accuracy and to overcome the uncertainties associated with traditional methods, the stochastic and variable nature of wind still remains the most challenging issue in accurately forecasting wind power. This paper presents a hybrid deterministic-probabilistic method where a temporally local ‘moving window’ technique is used in Gaussian Process to examine estimated forecasting errors. This temporally local Gaussian Process employs less measurement data while faster and better predicts wind power at two wind farms, one in the USA and the other in Ireland. Statistical analysis on the results shows that the method can substantially reduce the forecasting error while more likely generate Gaussian-distributed residuals, particularly for short-term forecast horizons due to its capability to handle the time-varying characteristics of wind power.

Bit erasure analysis of binary adders in quantum-dot cellular automata

As a post-CMOS technology, the incipient Quantum-dot Cellular Automata technology has various advantages. A key aspect which makes it highly desirable is low power dissipation. One method that is used to analyse power dissipation in QCA circuits is bit erasure analysis. This method has been applied to analyse previously proposed QCA binary adders. However, a number of improved QCA adders have been proposed more recently that have only been evaluated in terms of area and speed. As the three key performance metrics for QCA circuits are speed, area and power, in this paper, a bit erasure analysis of these adders will be presented to determine their power dissipation. The adders to be analysed are the Carry Flow Adder (CFA), Brent-Kung Adder (B-K), Ladner-Fischer Adder (L-F) and a more recently developed area-delay efficient adder. This research will allow for a more comprehensive comparison between the different QCA adder proposals. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first time power dissipation analysis has been carried out on these adders.

Game-­theoretic Resource Allocation with Real-­time Probabilistic Surveillance Information

Game-theoretic security resource allocation problems have generated significant interest in the area of designing and developing security systems. These approaches traditionally utilize the Stackelberg game model for security resource scheduling in order to improve the protection of critical assets. The basic assumption in Stackelberg games is that a defender will act first, then an attacker will choose their best response after observing the defender’s strategy commitment (e.g., protecting a specific asset). Thus, it requires an attacker’s full or partial observation of a defender’s strategy. This assumption is unrealistic in real-time threat recognition and prevention. In this paper, we propose a new solution concept (i.e., a method to predict how a game will be played) for deriving the defender’s optimal strategy based on the principle of acceptable costs of minimax regret. Moreover, we demonstrate the advantages of this solution concept by analyzing its properties.

A First Step Towards Cost Functions for Quantum-dot Cellular Automata Designs

Quantum-dot cellular automata (QCA) is potentially a very attractive alternative to CMOS for future digital designs. Circuit designs in QCA have been extensively studied. However, how to properly evaluate the QCA circuits has not been carefully considered. To date, metrics and area-delay cost functions directly mapped from CMOS technology have been used to compare QCA designs, which is inappropriate due to the differences between these two technologies. In this paper, several cost metrics specifically aimed at QCA circuits are studied. It is found that delay, the number of QCA logic gates, and the number and type of crossovers, are important metrics that should be considered when comparing QCA designs. A family of new cost functions for QCA circuits is proposed. As fundamental components in QCA computing arithmetic, QCA adders are reviewed and evaluated with the proposed cost functions. By taking the new cost metrics into account, previous best adders become unattractive and it has been shown that different optimization goals lead to different “best” adders.

Probabilistic Planning in AgentSpeak using the POMDP framework.

AgentSpeak is a logic-based programming language, based on the Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) paradigm, suitable for building complex agent-based systems. To limit the computational complexity, agents in AgentSpeak rely on a plan library to reduce the planning problem to the much simpler problem of plan selection. However, such a plan library is often inadequate when an agent is situated in an uncertain environment. In this paper, we propose the AgentSpeak+ framework, which extends AgentSpeak with a mechanism for probabilistic planning. The beliefs of an AgentSpeak+ agent are represented using epistemic states to allow an agent to reason about its uncertain observations and the uncertain effects of its actions. Each epistemic state consists of a POMDP, used to encode the agent’s knowledge of the environment, and its associated probability distribution (or belief state). In addition, the POMDP is used to select the optimal actions for achieving a given goal, even when facing uncertainty.

Cost-Efficient Decimal Adder Design in Quantum-dot Cellular Automata

Applications that cannot tolerate the loss of accuracy that results from binary arithmetic demand hardware decimal arithmetic designs. Binary arithmetic in Quantum-dot cellular automata (QCA) technology has been extensively investigated in recent years. However, only limited attention has been paid to QCA decimal arithmetic. In this paper, two cost-efficient binary-coded decimal (BCD) adders are presented. One is based on the carry flow adder (CFA) using a conventional correction method. The other uses the carry look ahead (CLA) algorithm which is the first QCA CLA decimal adder proposed to date. Compared with previous designs, both decimal adders achieve better performance in terms of latency and overall cost. The proposed CFA-based BCD adder has the smallest area with the least number of cells. The proposed CLA-based BCD adder is the fastest with an increase in speed of over 60% when compared with the previous fastest decimal QCA adder. It also has the lowest overall cost with a reduction of over 90% when compared with the previous most cost-efficient design.

A field and reactive transport model study of arsenic in a basaltic rock aquifer

The use of geothermal energy as a source for electricity and district heating has increased over recent decades. Dissolved As can be an important constituent of the geothermal fluids brought to the Earth's surface. Here the field application of laboratory measured adsorption coefficients of aqueous As species on basaltic glass surfaces is discussed. The mobility of As species in the basaltic aquifer in the Nesjavellir geothermal system, Iceland was modelled by the one-dimensional (1D) reactive transport model PHREEQC ver. 2, constrained by a long time series of field measurements with the chemical composition of geothermal effluent fluids, pH, Eh and, occasionally, Fe- and As-dissolved species measurements. Di-, tri- and tetrathioarsenic species (As(OH)S22-, AsS₃H^2-, AsS33- and As(SH)4-) were the dominant form of dissolved As in geothermal waters exiting the power plant (2.556μM total As) but converted to some extent to arsenite (H₃AsO₃) and arsenate HAsO42- oxyanions coinciding with rapid oxidation of S2- to S2O32- and finally to SO42- during surface runoff before feeding into a basaltic lava field with a total As concentration of 0.882μM following dilution with other surface waters. A continuous 25-a data set monitoring groundwater chemistry along a cross section of warm springs on the Lake Thingvallavatn shoreline allowed calibration of the 1D model. Furthermore, a series of ground water wells located in the basaltic lava field, provided access along the line of flow of the geothermal effluent waters towards the lake. The conservative ion Cl^- moved through the basaltic lava field (4100m) in less than10a but As was retarded considerably due to surface reactions and has entered a groundwater well 850m down the flow path as arsenate in accordance to the prediction of the 1D model. The 1D model predicted a complete breakthrough of arsenate in the year 2100. In a reduced system arsenite should be retained for about 1ka. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.