An invasive-native mammalian species replacement process captured by camera trap survey random encounter models

Camera traps are used to estimate densities or abundances using capture-recapture and, more recently, random encounter models (REMs). We deploy REMs to describe an invasive-native species replacement process, and to demonstrate their wider application beyond abundance estimation. The Irish hare Lepus timidus hibernicus is a high priority endemic of conservation concern. It is threatened by an expanding population of non-native, European hares L. europaeus, an invasive species of global importance. Camera traps were deployed in thirteen 1 km squares, wherein the ratio of invader to native densities were corroborated by night-driven line transect distance sampling throughout the study area of 1652 km2. Spatial patterns of invasive and native densities between the invader’s core and peripheral ranges, and native allopatry, were comparable between methods. Native densities in the peripheral range were comparable to those in native allopatry using REM, or marginally depressed using Distance Sampling. Numbers of the invader were substantially higher than the native in the core range, irrespective of method, with a 5:1 invader-to-native ratio indicating species replacement. We also describe a post hoc optimization protocol for REM which will inform subsequent (re-)surveys, allowing survey effort (camera hours) to be reduced by up to 57% without compromising the width of confidence intervals associated with density estimates. This approach will form the basis of a more cost-effective means of surveillance and monitoring for both the endemic and invasive species. The European hare undoubtedly represents a significant threat to the endemic Irish hare.

Modelling Duqu 2.0 Malware using Attack Trees with Sequential Conjunction

In this paper we identify requirements for choosing a threat modelling formalisation for modelling sophisticated malware such as Duqu 2.0. We discuss the gaps in current formalisations and propose the use of Attack Trees with Sequential Conjunction when it comes to analysing complex attacks. The paper models Duqu 2.0 based on the latest information sourced from formal and informal sources. This paper provides a well structured model which can be used for future analysis of Duqu 2.0 and related attacks.

Allocating Participants to Groups In Educational Trials: What Does Random Mean?

What is meant by the term random? Do we understand how to identify which type of randomisation to use in our future research projects? We, as researchers, often explain randomisation to potential research participants as being a 50/50 chance of selection to either an intervention or control group, akin to drawing numbers out of a hat. Is this an accurate explanation? And are all methods of randomisation equal? This paper aims to guide the researcher through the different techniques used to randomise participants with examples of how they can be used in educational research.

Partially Ordered Preferences in Decision Trees: Computing Strategies with Imprecision in Probabilities

Partially ordered preferences generally lead to choices that do not abide by standard expected utility guidelines; often such preferences are revealed by imprecision in probability values. We investigate five criteria for strategy selection in decision trees with imprecision in probabilities: “extensive” Γ-maximin and Γ-maximax, interval dominance, maximality and E-admissibility. We present algorithms that generate strategies for all these criteria; our main contribution is an algorithm for Eadmissibility that runs over admissible strategies rather than over sets of probability distributions.

Compact Routing Messages in Self-Healing Trees

Existing compact routing schemes, e.g., Thorup and Zwick [SPAA 2001] and Chechik [PODC 2013], often have no means to tolerate failures, once the system has been setup and started. This paper presents, to our knowledge, the first self-healing compact routing scheme. Besides, our schemes are developed for low memory nodes, i.e., nodes need only O(log2 n) memory, and are thus, compact schemes.
We introduce two algorithms of independent interest: The first is CompactFT, a novel compact version (using only O(log n) local memory) of the self-healing algorithm Forgiving Tree of Hayes et al. [PODC 2008]. The second algorithm (CompactFTZ) combines CompactFT with Thorup-Zwick’s treebased compact routing scheme [SPAA 2001] to produce a fully compact self-healing routing scheme. In the self-healing model, the adversary deletes nodes one at a time with the affected nodes self-healing locally by adding few edges. CompactFT recovers from each attack in only O(1) time and ∆ messages, with only +3 degree increase and O(log∆) graph diameter increase, over any sequence of deletions (∆ is the initial maximum degree).
Additionally, CompactFTZ guarantees delivery of a packet sent from sender s as long as the receiver has not been deleted, with only an additional O(y log ∆) latency, where y is the number of nodes that have been deleted on the path between s and t. If t has been deleted, s gets informed and the packet removed from the network.

SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF SALINITY ON SOME PHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS OF YOUNG OLIVE TREES OF ARBEQUINA, COBRANÇOSA AND GALEGA VARIETIES

SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF SALINITY ON SOME PHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS OF YOUNG OLIVE TREES OF ARBEQUINA, COBRANÇOSA AND GALEGA VARIETIES Ana Elisa Rato1,4, Renato Coelho1, Margarida Vaz1, Teresa Carola2, Dália Barbosa2, Nádia Silva1, José dos Santos2, Lourenço Machado2, João Godinho2, Luzia Ruas2, Margarida Barradas2, Hernani Pereira2, Sara Porfírio4 1 ICAAM, Universidade de Évora, Apartado 94, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal 2 Master students, Universidade de Évora, Apartado 94, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal 3 Ph.D. student, Universidade de Évora, Apartado 94, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal 4 aerato@uevora.pt Due to the desertification in some regions, the interest in plant’s tolerance to salinity has been increasing, as this response is determining for plant survival in stress conditions. This work reports the investigation of tolerance to salt in two year-old olive trees (Olea europaea L.) of three varieties, Arbequina, Cobrançosa and Galega vulgar. Plants were grown in 10 L plastic pots containing approximately 9 Kg of a sandy granitic soil, on a greenhouse. For 3 months (from the beginning of February to the end of April 2012), they were subjected to three levels of salinity in the irrigation water, 0 mM, 80 mM and 200 mM NaCl (6 plants per salinity level in a total of 18 plants of each variety),. Stomatal conductance (gs) and relative leaf chlorophyll content were assessed on each plant in February, March and April. Mid-day leaf water potential () and soil salinity were measured at the end of the experiment (April). On average, concerning all treatments and dates of determination, stomatal conductance of Arbequina and Galega vulgar was quite similar, around 40 mmol m-2 s-1, but Cobrançosa had a value of gs 36% higher, almost 50% higher (61 mmol m-2 s-1) when compared with the controls (0 mM salt) of the other two varieties. In percentage of controls, there was little difference in gs between varieties and between salinities during February and March. In contrast, in April, after about 90 days of exposure to salt, there was a clear decrease in gs with salt irrigation, proportional to salt concentration. Compared with controls, plants irrigated with 200 mM salt showed around 80% (Arbequina) or 85% (Cobrançosa and Galega vulgar) decrease in gs. Chlorophyll content of leaves showed less than 5% difference between varieties on the average of all treatments and dates of determination. During the course of this experiment, the salinity levels used did not show any relevant effect on chlorophyll content. Overall, at the end of the experimental period (April), leaf water potential () at midday was significantly higher in Cobrançosa (-1,4 MPa) than in Galega vulgar (-1,7 MPa) or Arbequina (-1,8 MPa), and salt decreased  of control plants (-1,25 MPa) by an average 30% (with 80 mM) and 65% (with 200 mM). At the end of the experiment, salinity in the soil irrigated with 0 mM, 80 mM or 200 mM NaCl was, on average of all varieties, 0,2 mS, 1,0 mS or 2,0 mS, respectively. Soil salinity was quite similar in Arbequina and Galega vulgar but about 35% lower in the pots of Cobrançosa, on average of all salt-irrigation levels. Plants of Cobrançosa had higher stomatal conductance, however they showed higher water potential and lower salinity in the soil. These apparently contradictory results seem to suggest that Cobrançosa responds to salt differently from the other two varieties. This issue needs further investigation.

Response to salinity in young olive trees of three Iberian varieties

Soil salinization is a problem in the Mediterranean region. This paper reports a research on the response to salt in two year-old olive trees (Olea europaea L.) of three Iberian varieties: Arbequina, Cobrançosa and Galega Vulgar. Plants were grown in plastic pots containing approximately 9 Kg of a sandy granitic soil, on a greenhouse at the University of Évora since February 2010. The experiment went from February to April 2012. As a rule, plants were watered every other day alternating salt solution (0 mM, 80 mM or 200 mM NaCl) or tap water. After three months irrigation with the different NaCl solutions, soil electric conductivity and soil water content were significantly higher on salt-irrigated pots. Salt also decreased significantly stomatal conductance (gs) and mid-day leaf water potential (), Cobrançosa having in general higher gs and but lower SLA than the two other varieties. Chlorophyll content of leaves was not affected by salt after this three months exposure to NaCl but was significantly higher on Arbequina and lower on Cobrançosa. In general, hyperspectral reflectance indexes did not show significant correlations with salt irrigation, except for the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) which was clearly lower on plants of all three varieties irrigated with salt. Interestingly, Cobrançosa showed frequently vegetation indexes different from the other two varieties.

Micropropagation in elite corck oak trees: a tool for suber production improvement?

Dada a extrema importância económica e ambiental que o montado de sobro tem em Portugal, e dado o declínio deste devido a várias razões (e.g. doença, idade das plantas) é premente desenvolver estratégias de preservação de sobreiros elite e optimizar técnicas para a propagação destes genótipos. No primeiro Capítulo expõe-se uma breve introdução sobre o montado actual e as técnicas actuais de regeneração/propagação do sobreiro. Descreve-se ainda as principais técnicas de preservação e avaliação de estabilidade genética referidas na literatura para sobreiro e outras lenhosas. No Capítulo II é apresentado um estudo de melhoramento das condições actuais de maturação de embriões somáticos de sobreiro com vista a aperfeiçoar o processo de conversão em plantas. Neste capítulo é apresentado um protocolo melhorado em relação ao actual que permite um desenvolvimento dos embriões somáticos dum modo semelhante aos embriões zigóticos em termos de substâncias de reserva. O Capítulo III mostra um estudo efectuado com o objectivo principal de avaliar estabilidade genética durante todo o processo de embriogénese somática. Neste capítulo são apresentados resultados duma análise feita por RAPD em fases distintas da embriogénese somática de sobreiro. Neste estudo mostra-se que não existem diferenças significativas entre plantas de campo, embriões somáticos e plantas regeneradas. No Capítulo VI, pretende-se complementar o estudo anterior. Neste Capítulo descreve-se a dinâmica do ciclo celular durante as primeiras fases de embriogénese somática na presença de reguladores de crescimento. Este trabalho permitiu concluir a importância dos reguladores de crescimento na indução e perceber o peso do factor genótipo durante o processo. Considerando os resultados anteriores, a necessidade de um processo eficiente de preservação de genótipos elite torna-se fundamental. No Capítulo V descreve-se um protocolo de criopreservação eficiente sem recursos a substâncias tóxicas. Nesta secção é ainda feita uma análise de variabilidade genética após criopreservação através de FCM, AFLP e SSR. Todos os resultados obtidos anteriormente são postos a prova no Capítulo VI onde se faz uma monitorização extensiva de 10 genótipos elite, tendo em conta a sua capacidade de produção de cortiça, através do processo de embriogénese somática. Durante esta secção são utilizados os protocolos desenvolvidos anteriormente e avaliados na sua eficiência. Neste capítulo é descrita a integração de vários segmentos deste estudo num só protocolo eficiente de regeneração e preservação de sobreiros através de embriogénese somática. Finalmente, no Capítulo VI são apresentadas as conclusões da presente Tese de Doutoramento, com especial incidência para linhas de investigação futuras a serem tomadas. Discute-se a importância deste novo protocolo na optimização da produção da cortiça e traçam-se possíveis aplicações alternativas.

Modelling health state preference data using fixed and random effects models

The use of preference-based measures of health in the measurement of Health Related Quality of Life has become widely used in health economics. Hence, the development of preference-based measures of health has been a major concern for researchers throughout the world. This study aims to model health state preference data using a new preference-based measure of health (the SF- 6D) and to suggest alternative models for predicting health state utilities using fixed and random effects models. It also seeks to investigate the problems found in the SF-6D and to suggest eventual changes to it.

Small area estimation using linear mixed models with heterogeneous covariance structures of random effects

The problem of Small Area Estimation is about how to produce reliable estimates of domain characteristics when the sample sizes within the domain is very small ou even zero.

Effect of nitrogen and potassium fertilisation on vegetative growth and flowering of mature carob trees (Ceratonia siliqua): variations in leaf area index and water use indices

This work aimed to assess how potassium (K) and nitrogen (N) fertilisation may affect the use of precipitation in terms of vegetative and flowering response of 15-year-old carob trees during a 3-year experiment. A field trial was conducted in 1997, 1998 and 1999 in Algarve (Southern Portugal) in a calcareous soil. Four fertilisation treatments were tested: no fertiliser (control); 0.8 kg N/tree (N treatment); 1 kg K 2 O/tree (K treatment) and 0.8 kg N/tree plus 1 kg K 2 O/tree (NK treatment). No irrigation was applied during the experimental period. Branch length increments were measured every month throughout the growing season and inflorescence number was registered once per year. There was a strong seasonal effect on vegetative growth, since low levels of precipitation (115 mm) during October 1998–March 1999 suppressed the increment in branch length. N supplied to the trees (N and NK treatments) tended to increase water use indices in terms of vegetative growth. No response to K alone was observed in trees fertilised only with K. The number of inflorescences increased throughout the experimental period, particularly for N and NK treatments, and a reduction of the precipitation amount during April, May and June, may also enhance flowering. This knowledge could be important when making decisions concerning fertilisation under dry conditions. The results reported here indicate that tree growth (expressed as the branch growth) and flower production under dry-farming conditions, may be achieved by applying 0.8 kg of N (as ammonium nitrate) per tree during the growing season. However, N uptake and use depends on soil water availability.

Changes in the Pollen Seasons of the Early Flowering Trees Alnus spp. and Corylus spp. in Worcester United Kingdom 1996-2005

Previous work on Betula spp. (birch) in the UK and at five sites in Europe has shown that pollen seasons for this taxon have tended to become earlier by about 5–10 days per decade in most regions investigated over the last 30 years. This pattern has been linked to the trend to warmer winters and springs in recent years. However, little work has been done to investigate the changes in the pollen seasons for the early flowering trees. Several of these, such as Alnus spp. and Corylus spp., have allergens, which cross-react with those of Betula spp., and so have a priming effect on allergic people. This paper investigates pollen seasons for Alnus spp. and Corylus spp. for the years 1996–2005 at Worcester, in the West Midlands, United Kingdom. Pollen data for daily average counts were collected using a Burkard volumetric trap sited on the exposed roof of a three-storey building. The climate is western maritime. Meteorological data for daily temperatures (maximum and minimum) and rainfall were obtained from the local monitoring sites. The local area up to approximately 10 km surrounding the site is mostly level terrain with some undulating hills and valleys. The local vegetation is mixed farmland and deciduous woodland. The pollen seasons for the two taxa investigated are typically late December or early January to late March. Various ways of defining the start and end of the pollen seasons were considered for these taxa, but the most useful was the 1% method whereby the season is deemed to have started when 1% of the total catch is achieved and to have ended when 99% is reached. The cumulative catches (in grains/m3) for Alnus spp. varied from 698 (2001) to 3,467 (2004). For Corylus spp., they varied from 65 (2001) to 4,933 (2004). The start dates for Alnus spp. showed 39 days difference in the 10 years (earliest 2000 day 21, latest 1996 day 60). The end dates differed by 26 days and the length of season differed by 15 days. The last 4 years in the set had notably higher cumulative counts than the first 2, but there was no trend towards earlier starts. For Corylus spp. start days also differed by 39 days (earliest 1999 day 5, latest 1996 day 44). The end date differed by 35 days and length of season by 26 days. Cumulative counts and lengths of season showed a distinct pattern of alternative high (long) and low (short) years. There is some evidence of a synchronous pattern for Alnus spp.. These patterns show some significant correlations with temperature and rainfall through the autumn, winter and early spring, and some relationships with growth degree 4s and chill units, but the series is too short to discern trends. The analysis has provided insight to the variation in the seasons for these early flowering trees and will form a basis for future work on building predictive models for these taxa.

Are the Birch Trees in Southern England a Source of Betula Pollen for North London?

Birch pollen is highly allergenic. Knowledge of daily variations, atmospheric transport and source areas of birch pollen is important for exposure studies and for warnings to the public, especially for large cities such as London. Our results show that broad-leaved forests with high birch tree densities are located to the south and west of London. Bi-hourly Betula pollen concentrations for all the days included in the study, and for all available days with high birch pollen counts (daily average birch pollen counts >80 grains/m3), show that, on average, there is a peak between 1400 hours and 1600 hours. Back-trajectory analysis showed that, on days with high birch pollen counts (n=60), 80% of air masses arriving at the time of peak diurnal birch pollen count approached North London from the south in a 180 degree arc from due east to due west. Detailed investigations of three Betula pollen episodes, with distinctly different diurnal patterns compared to the mean daily cycle, were used to illustrate how night-time maxima (2200–0400 hours) in Betula pollen counts could be the result of transport from distant sources or long transport times caused by slow moving air masses. We conclude that the Betula pollen recorded in North London could originate from sources found to the west and south of the city and not just trees within London itself. Possible sources outside the city include Continental Europe and the Betula trees within the broad-leaved forests of Southern England.