Managing Risk: Identifying and Controlling Losses and Assuming Risks From Perils

Financial survival in the hotel and restaurant business can depend upon a mastery of the basic principles of risk management. This article explains the series of steps leading to the successful implementation of the risk management techniques most appropriate for a given hotel or restaurant.

Assessment of the occurrence and potential risks of pharmaceuticals and their metabolites in fish and water using liquid chromatography mass spectrometry

A comprehensive method for the analysis of 11 target pharmaceuticals representing multiple therapeutic classes was developed for biological tissues (fish) and water. Water samples were extracted using solid phase extraction (SPE), while fish tissue homogenates were extracted using accelerated solvent extraction (ASE) followed by mixed-mode cation exchange SPE cleanup and analyzed by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Among the 11 target pharmaceuticals analyzed, trimethoprim, caffeine, sulfamethoxazole, diphenhydramine, diltiazem, carbamazepine, erythromycin and fluoxetine were consistently detected in reclaimed water. On the other hand, caffeine, diphenhydramine and carbamazepine were consistently detected in fish and surface water samples. In order to understand the uptake and depuration of pharmaceuticals as well as bioconcentration factors (BCFs) under the worst-case conditions, mosquito fish were exposed to reclaimed water under static-renewal for 7 days, followed by a 14-day depuration phase in clean water. Characterization of the exposure media revealed the presence of 26 pharmaceuticals while 5 pharmaceuticals including caffeine, diphenhydramine, diltiazem, carbamazepine, and ibuprofen were present in the organisms as early as 5 h from the start of the exposure. Liquid chromatography ultra-high resolution Orbitrap mass spectrometry was explored as a tool to identify and quantify phase II pharmaceutical metabolites in reclaimed water. The resulting data confirmed the presence of acetyl-sulfamethoxazole and sulfamethoxazole glucuronide in reclaimed water. To my knowledge, this is the first known report of sulfamethoxazole glucuronide surviving intact through wastewater treatment plants and occurring in environmental water samples. Finally, five bioaccumulative pharmaceuticals including caffeine, carbamazepine, diltiazem, diphenhydramine and ibuprofen detected in reclaimed water were investigated regarding the acute and chronic risks to aquatic organisms. The results indicated a low potential risk of carbamazepine even under the worst case exposure scenario. Given the dilution factors that affect environmental releases, the risk of exposure to carbamazepine will be even more reduced.

Assessment of the occurrence and potential risks of antibiotics and their metabolites in South Florida waters using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry

An automated on-line SPE-LC-MS/MS method was developed for the quantitation of multiple classes of antibiotics in environmental waters. High sensitivity in the low ng/L range was accomplished by using large volume injections with 10-mL of sample. Positive confirmation of analytes was achieved using two selected reaction monitoring (SRM) transitions per antibiotic and quantitation was performed using an internal standard approach. Samples were extracted using online solid phase extraction, then using column switching technique; extracted samples were immediately passed through liquid chromatography and analyzed by tandem mass spectrometry. The total run time per each sample was 20 min. The statistically calculated method detection limits for various environmental samples were between 1.2 and 63 ng/L. Furthermore, the method was validated in terms of precision, accuracy and linearity. ^ The developed analytical methodology was used to measure the occurrence of antibiotics in reclaimed waters (n=56), surface waters (n=53), ground waters (n=8) and drinking waters (n=54) collected from different parts of South Florida. In reclaimed waters, the most frequently detected antibiotics were nalidixic acid, erythromycin, clarithromycin, azithromycin trimethoprim, sulfamethoxazole and ofloxacin (19.3-604.9 ng/L). Detection of antibiotics in reclaimed waters indicates that they can't be completely removed by conventional wastewater treatment process. Furthermore, the average mass loads of antibiotics released into the local environment through reclaimed water were estimated as 0.248 Kg/day. Among the surface waters samples, Miami River (reaching up to 580 ng/L) and Black Creek canal (up to 124 ng/L) showed highest concentrations of antibiotics. No traces of antibiotics were found in ground waters. On the other hand, erythromycin (monitored as anhydro erythromycin) was detected in 82% of the drinking water samples (n.d-66 ng/L). The developed approach is suitable for both research and monitoring applications.^ Major metabolites of antibiotics in reclaimed wates were identified and quantified using high resolution benchtop Q-Exactive orbitrap mass spectrometer. A phase I metabolite of erythromycin was tentatively identified in full scan based on accurate mass measurement. Using extracted ion chromatogram (XIC), high resolution data-dependent MS/MS spectra and metabolic profiling software the metabolite was identified as desmethyl anhydro erythromycin with molecular formula C36H63NO12 and m/z 702.4423. The molar concentration of the metabolite to erythromycin was in the order of 13 %. To my knowledge, this is the first known report on this metabolite in reclaimed water. Another compound acetyl-sulfamethoxazole, a phase II metabolite of sulfamethoxazole was also identified in reclaimed water and mole fraction of the metabolite represent 36 %, of the cumulative sulfamethoxazole concentration. The results were illustrating the importance to include metabolites also in the routine analysis to obtain a mass balance for better understanding of the occurrence, fate and distribution of antibiotics in the environment. ^ Finally, all the antibiotics detected in reclaimed and surface waters were investigated to assess the potential risk to the aquatic organisms. The surface water antibiotic concentrations that represented the real time exposure conditions revealed that the macrolide antibiotics, erythromycin, clarithromycin and tylosin along with quinolone antibiotic, ciprofloxacin were suspected to induce high toxicity to aquatic biota. Preliminary results showing that, among the antibiotic groups tested, macrolides posed the highest ecological threat, and therefore, they may need to be further evaluated with, long-term exposure studies considering bioaccumulation factors and more number of species selected. Overall, the occurrence of antibiotics in aquatic environment is posing an ecological health concern.^

The Argentine Dilemma: “Vulture Funds” and the Risks Posed to Developing Economies

Post-crisis Argentina is a case study of crisis management through debt restructuring. This article examines how Argentina negotiated the external debt in the wake of the sovereign default in December 2001 and now confronts challenges posed by holdout creditors—the so called “vulture funds”. It argues that debt restructuring has put a straitjacket on the national economy, making it virtually impossible for healthy growth short of a break with the international economic order. While Argentina has successfully restructured a $95 billion debt with an unprecedented “hair cut” (around 70% reduction in “net value of debt”), a sustainable growth appears out of reach as long as reliance on the government debt market prevails. In this cycle, the transmission belt of financial crisis to developing countries is characterized by the entry of highly speculative players such as hedge funds, conflicts of interests embedded in “sovereign debt restructuring” (SDR) and vulnerabilities associated with “emerging market debt”.

Role of Hormonal Treatment in Prostate Cancer Patients with Nonmetastatic Disease Recurrence After Local Curative Treatment : A Systematic Review

Peer reviewed

Taking risks in the face of uncertainty:an exploratory analysis of green innovation

The relationship between uncertainty and firms’ risk-taking behaviour has been a focus of investigation since early discussion of the nature of enterprise activity. Here, we focus on how firms’ perceptions of environmental uncertainty and their perceptions of the risks involved impact on their willingness to undertake green innovation. Analysis is based on a cross-sectional survey of UK food companies undertaken in 2008. The results reinforce the relationship between perceived environmental uncertainty and perceived innovation risk and emphasise the importance of macro-uncertainty in shaping firms’ willingness to undertake green innovation. The perceived (market-related) riskiness of innovation also positively influences the probability of innovating, suggesting either a proactive approach to stimulating market disruption or an opportunistic approach to innovation leadership.

Measuring Tail Risks at High Frequency

I develop a new methodology for measuring tail risks using the cross section of bid-ask spreads. Market makers embed tail risk information into spreads because (1) they lose to arbitrageurs when changes to asset values exceed the cost of liquidity and (2) underlying price movements and potential costs are linear in factor loadings. Using this insight, simple cross-sectional regressions relating spreads and trading volume to factor betas can recover tail risks in real time for priced or non-priced return factors. The methodology disentangles financial and aggregate market risks during the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis; anticipates jump risks associated with Federal Open Market Committee announcements; and quantifies a sharp, temporary increase in market tail risk before and throughout the 2010 Flash Crash. The recovered time series of implied market risks also aligns closely with both realized market jumps and the VIX.

Summary and Risks of ABS Transactions Under EU and US Law

This chapter examines the legal concept of summary in terms of its potential legal liability and other types of risks under EU and US disclosure laws.

Association Between Results of a Gene Expression Signature Assay and Recurrence-Free Interval in Patients With Stage II Colon Cancer in Cancer and Leukemia Group B 9581 (Alliance)

PURPOSE: Conventional staging methods are inadequate to identify patients with stage II colon cancer (CC) who are at high risk of recurrence after surgery with curative intent. ColDx is a gene expression, microarray-based assay shown to be independently prognostic for recurrence-free interval (RFI) and overall survival in CC. The objective of this study was to further validate ColDx using formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded specimens collected as part of the Alliance phase III trial, C9581.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: C9581 evaluated edrecolomab versus observation in patients with stage II CC and reported no survival benefit. Under an initial case-cohort sampling design, a randomly selected subcohort (RS) comprised 514 patients from 901 eligible patients with available tissue. Forty-nine additional patients with recurrence events were included in the analysis. Final analysis comprised 393 patients: 360 RS (58 events) and 33 non-RS events. Risk status was determined for each patient by ColDx. The Self-Prentice method was used to test the association between the resulting ColDx risk score and RFI adjusting for standard prognostic variables.

RESULTS: Fifty-five percent of patients (216 of 393) were classified as high risk. After adjustment for prognostic variables that included mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency, ColDx high-risk patients exhibited significantly worse RFI (multivariable hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.5; P < .01). Age and MMR status were marginally significant. RFI at 5 years for patients classified as high risk was 82% (95% CI, 79% to 85%), compared with 91% (95% CI, 89% to 93%) for patients classified as low risk.

CONCLUSION: ColDx is associated with RFI in the C9581 subsample in the presence of other prognostic factors, including MMR deficiency. ColDx could be incorporated with the traditional clinical markers of risk to refine patient prognosis.

Social Skills Training in Flight Schools: A Proactive Tool for Management of Threats and Risks

Safety Management Systems in aviation generate training programs that develop skills needed to perform safety functions. The objective of this study is to show that, in groups, individuals need to have interpersonal skills and, in particular, ability to communicate with others, to listen, and to influence. It is for this reason that Social Skills Training is important in Aviation. Professionals trained in social skills are more likely to identify threats and risks caused by interpersonal situations, be assertive, and take appropriate action. As a contribution, this paper suggests a set of policies, procedures and practices for educating and training future professionals who will work in aviation safety.

Influences, risks and prospects of city development on urban drainage systems

Christian Mikovits

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013