975 resultados para Prophets of Rain
Resumo:
Light and water are among essential resources required for production of photosynthates in plants. A study on the effects of weeding regimes and maize planting density on light and water use was conducted during the 2001/2 short and 2002 long rain seasons at Muguga in - the central highlands of Kenya. Weeding regimes were: weed free (W1), weedy (W2), herbicide (W3) and hand weeding twice (W4). Maize planting densities were 9 (D1) and 18 plants m-2 (D2) intercropped with Phaseolus vulgaris (beans). The experiment was laid as randomized complete block design replicated four times and repeated twice. All plots were thinned to 4 plants m-2 at tasseling stage (96 DAE) and thinnings quantified as forage. Soil moisture content (SMC), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) interception, evapo-transpiration (ET crop), water use efficiency (WUE), and harvest index (HI), were determined. Percent PAR was higher in D2 than in D1 before thinning but higher in D1 than in D2 after thinning in both seasons. PAR interception was highest in W2 but similar in W1, W3 and W4 in both seasons. SMC was significantly lower in W2 but similar in W1, W3 and W4. D2 had lower SMC than D1 in season two. Weeding regime significantly influenced ET crop, while planting density and weeding regime significantly influenced WUE and HI. D2 maximizes water and light use for forage production but results to increased intra-specific plant competition for water and light severely before thinning (96 DAE) that reduce grain yield in dual purpose maize, relative to D1.
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There are some long-established biases in atmospheric models that originate from the representation of tropical convection. Previously, it has been difficult to separate cause and effect because errors are often the result of a number of interacting biases. Recently, researchers have gained the ability to run multiyear global climate model simulations with grid spacings small enough to switch the convective parameterization off, which permits the convection to develop explicitly. There are clear improvements to the initiation of convective storms and the diurnal cycle of rainfall in the convection-permitting simulations, which enables a new process-study approach to model bias identification. In this study, multiyear global atmosphere-only climate simulations with and without convective parameterization are undertaken with the Met Office Unified Model and are analyzed over the Maritime Continent region, where convergence from sea-breeze circulations is key for convection initiation. The analysis shows that, although the simulation with parameterized convection is able to reproduce the key rain-forming sea-breeze circulation, the parameterization is not able to respond realistically to the circulation. A feedback of errors also occurs: the convective parameterization causes rain to fall in the early morning, which cools and wets the boundary layer, reducing the land–sea temperature contrast and weakening the sea breeze. This is, however, an effect of the convective bias, rather than a cause of it. Improvements to how and when convection schemes trigger convection will improve both the timing and location of tropical rainfall and representation of sea-breeze circulations.
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Poor wheat seed quality in temperate regions is often ascribed to wet production environments. We investigated the possible effect of simulated rain during seed development and maturation on seed longevity in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cv. Tybalt grown in the field (2008, 2009) or a polythene tunnel house (2010). To mimic rain, the seed crops were wetted from above with the equivalent of 30mm (2008, 2009) or 25mm rainfall (2010) at different stages of seed development and maturation (17 to 58 DAA, days after 50% anthesis), samples harvested serially, and subsequent air-dry seed longevity estimated. No pre-harvest sprouting occurred. Seed longevity (p50, 50% survival period in experimental hermetic storage at 40°C with c. 15% moisture content) in field-grown controls increased during seed development and maturation attaining maxima at 37 (2008) or 44 DAA (2009); it declined thereafter. Immediate effects of simulated rain at 17-58 DAA in field studies (2008, 2009) on subsequent seed longevity were negative but small, e.g. a 1-4 d delay in seed quality improvement for treatments early in development but with no damage detected at final harvests. In rainfall-protected conditions (2010), simulated rain close to harvest maturity (55-56 DAA) reduced longevity immediately and substantially, with greater damage from two sequential days of wetting than one; again, later harvests provided evidence of recovery in subsequent longevity. In the absence of pre-harvest sprouting, the potentially deleterious effects of rainfall to wheat seed crops on subsequent seed longevity may be reversible in full or in part.
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Idealized explicit convection simulations of the Met Office Unified Model exhibit spontaneous self-aggregation in radiative-convective equilibrium, as seen in other models in previous studies. This self-aggregation is linked to feedbacks between radiation, surface fluxes, and convection, and the organization is intimately related to the evolution of the column water vapor field. Analysis of the budget of the spatial variance of column-integrated frozen moist static energy (MSE), following Wing and Emanuel [2014], reveals that the direct radiative feedback (including significant cloud longwave effects) is dominant in both the initial development of self-aggregation and the maintenance of an aggregated state. A low-level circulation at intermediate stages of aggregation does appear to transport MSE from drier to moister regions, but this circulation is mostly balanced by other advective effects of opposite sign and is forced by horizontal anomalies of convective heating (not radiation). Sensitivity studies with either fixed prescribed radiative cooling, fixed prescribed surface fluxes, or both do not show full self-aggregation from homogeneous initial conditions, though fixed surface fluxes do not disaggregate an initialized aggregated state. A sensitivity study in which rain evaporation is turned off shows more rapid self-aggregation, while a run with this change plus fixed radiative cooling still shows strong self-aggregation, supporting a “moisture memory” effect found in Muller and Bony [2015]. Interestingly, self-aggregation occurs even in simulations with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 295 K and 290 K, with direct radiative feedbacks dominating the budget of MSE variance, in contrast to results in some previous studies.
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A recent field campaign in southwest England used numerical modeling integrated with aircraft and radar observations to investigate the dynamic and microphysical interactions that can result in heavy convective precipitation. The COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE) was a joint UK-US field campaign held during the summer of 2013 in the southwest peninsula of England, designed to study convective clouds that produce heavy rain leading to flash floods. The clouds form along convergence lines that develop regularly due to the topography. Major flash floods have occurred in the past, most famously at Boscastle in 2004. It has been suggested that much of the rain was produced by warm rain processes, similar to some flash floods that have occurred in the US. The overarching goal of COPE is to improve quantitative convective precipitation forecasting by understanding the interactions of the cloud microphysics and dynamics and thereby to improve NWP model skill for forecasts of flash floods. Two research aircraft, the University of Wyoming King Air and the UK BAe 146, obtained detailed in situ and remote sensing measurements in, around, and below storms on several days. A new fast-scanning X-band dual-polarization Doppler radar made 360-deg volume scans over 10 elevation angles approximately every 5 minutes, and was augmented by two UK Met Office C-band radars and the Chilbolton S-band radar. Detailed aerosol measurements were made on the aircraft and on the ground. This paper: (i) provides an overview of the COPE field campaign and the resulting dataset; (ii) presents examples of heavy convective rainfall in clouds containing ice and also in relatively shallow clouds through the warm rain process alone; and (iii) explains how COPE data will be used to improve high-resolution NWP models for operational use.
Resumo:
Lack of access to insurance exacerbates the impact of climate variability on smallholder famers in Africa. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, weather index insurance (WII) pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. In principle, WII could be provided to farmers throughout Africa. There are two data-related hurdles to this. First, most farmers do not live close enough to a rain gauge with sufficiently long record of observations. Second, mismatches between weather indices and yield may expose farmers to uncompensated losses, and insurers to unfair payouts – a phenomenon known as basis risk. In essence, basis risk results from complexities in the progression from meteorological drought (rainfall deficit) to agricultural drought (low soil moisture). In this study, we use a land-surface model to describe the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought. We demonstrate that spatial and temporal aggregation of rainfall results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a reduction in basis risk. We then use an advanced statistical method to show how optimal aggregation of satellite-based rainfall estimates can reduce basis risk, enabling remotely sensed data to be utilized robustly for WII.
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The seasonal distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis was studied in two forested and five domiciliary areas of the urban area of Campo Grande; MS, from December 2003 to November 2005. Weekly captures were carried out with CDC light traps positioned on ground and in the canopy inside a residual forest and on the edge (ground) of a woodland and in at least one of the following ecotopes in peridomiciles-a cultivated area, a chicken coop, a pigsty, a kennel, a goat and sheep shelter and an intradomicile. A total of 9519 sand flies were collected, 2666 during the first year and 6853 during the second. L. longipalpis was found throughout the 2-year period, presenting smaller peaks at intervals of 2-3 months and two greater peaks, the first in February and the second in April 2005, soon after periods of heavy rain. Only In one of the woodlands was a significant negative correlation (p < 0.05) between the number of insects and temperature during the first year and the climatic factors (temperature, RHA and rain) was observed. In the domiciliary areas in four domiciles some positive correlations (p < 0.05) occurred in relation to one or more climatic factors; however, the species shows a clear tendency to greater frequency (72%) in the rainy season than in the dry (28%). Thus, we recommend an intensification of the VL control measures applied in Campo Grande, MS, during the rainy season with a view to reducing the risk of the transmission of the disease. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All fights reserved.
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The eddy covariance method was used to measure energy and water balance of a plantation of Eucalyptus (grandis x urophylla) hybrids over a 2 year period. The average daily evaporation rates were 5.4 (+/- 2.0) mm day(-1) in summer, but fell to 1.2 (+/- 0.3) mm day(-1) in winter. In contrast, the sensible heat flux was relatively low in summer but dominated the energy balance in winter. Evaporation accounted for 80% and 26% of the available energy, in summer and winter respectively. The annual evaporation was 82% (1124 mm) and 96% (1235 mm) of the annual rainfall recorded during the first and second year, respectively. Daily average canopy and aerodynamic conductance to water vapour were in the summer 51.9 (+/- 38.4) mm s(-1) 84.1 (+/- 25.6) mm s(-1), respectively; and in the winter 6.0 (+/- 10.5) mm s(-1) and 111.6 (+/- 24.6) mm s(-1), respectively. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The scavenging processes of chemical species have been previously studied with numerical modeling, in order to understand the gas and particulate matter intra-reservoir transferences. In this study, the atmospheric (RAMS) and scavenging (B.V.2) models were used, in order to simulate sulfate concentrations in rainwater using scavenging processes as well as the local atmospheric conditions obtained within the LBA Project in the State of Rondonia, during a dry-to-wet transition season. Two case studies were conducted. The RAMS atmospheric simulation of these events presented satisfactory results, showing the detailed microphysical processes of clouds in the Amazonian region. On the other hand, with cloud entrainments, observed values have been overestimated. Modeled sulfate rainwater concentration, using exponential decay and cloud heights of 16 km and no entrainments, presented the best results, reaching 97% of the observed value. The results, using shape parameter 5, are the best, improving the overall result. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
A study of the potential role of aerosols in modifying clouds and precipitation is presented using a numerical atmospheric model. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud size distribution properties taken in the southwestern Amazon region during the transition from dry to wet seasons were used as guidelines to define the microphysical parameters for the simulations. Numerical simulations were carried out using the Brazilian Development on Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, and the results presented considerable sensitivity to changes in these parameters. High CCN concentrations, typical of polluted days, were found to result in increases or decreases in total precipitation, depending on the level of pollution used as a reference, showing a complexity that parallels the aerosol-precipitation interaction. Our results show that on the grids evaluated, higher CCN concentrations reduced low-to-moderate rainfall rates and increased high rainfall rates. The principal consequence of the increased pollution was a change from a warm to a cold rain process, which affected the maximum and overall mean accumulated precipitation. Under polluted conditions, cloud cover diminished, allowing greater amounts of solar radiation to reach the surface. Aerosol absorption of radiation in the lower layers of the atmosphere delayed convective evolution but produced higher maximum rainfall rates due to increased instability. In addition, the intensity of the surface sensible heat flux, as well as that of the latent heat flux, was reduced by the lower temperature difference between surface and air, producing greater energy stores at the surface.
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We combined measurements of tree growth and carbon dioxide exchange to investigate the effects of selective logging on the Aboveground Live Biomass (AGLB) of a tropical rain forest in the Amazon. Most of the measurements began at least 10 months before logging and continued at least 36 months after logging. The logging removed similar to 15% of the trees with Diameter at Breast Height (DBH) greater than 35 cm, which resulted in an instantaneous 10% reduction in AGLB. Both wood production and mortality increased following logging, while Gross Primary Production (GPP) was unchanged. The ratio of wood production to GPP (the wood Carbon Use Efficiency or wood CUE) more than doubled following logging. Small trees (10 cm < DBH < 35 cm) accounted for most of the enhanced wood production. Medium trees (35 cm < DBH < 55 cm) that were within 30 m of canopy gaps created by the logging also showed increased growth. The patterns of enhanced growth are most consistent with logging-induced increases in light availability. The AGLB continued to decline over the study, as mortality outpaced wood production. Wood CUE and mortality remained elevated throughout the 3 years of postlogging measurements. The future trajectory of AGLB and the forest`s carbon balance are uncertain, and will depend on how long it takes for heterotrophic respiration, mortality, and CUE to return to prelogging levels.
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This study investigates how the summer thunderstorms developed over the city of Sao Paulo and if the pollution might affect its development or characteristics during the austral summer (December-January-February-March, DJFM months). A total of 605 days from December 1999 to March 2004 was separated as 241 thunderstorms days (TDs) and 364 non-thunderstorm days (NTDs). The analyses are performed by using hourly measurements of air temperature (T), web-bulb temperature (Tw), surface atmospheric pressure (P), wind velocity and direction, rainfall and thunder and lightning observations collected at the Meteorological Station of the University of Sao Paulo in conjunction with aerosol measurements obtained by AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network), and the NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Prediction Department of Energy) reanalysis and radiosondes. The wind diurnal cycle shows that for TDs the morning flow is from the northwest rotating to the southeast after 16: 00 local time (LT) and it remains from the east until the night. For the NTDs, the wind is well characterized by the sea-breeze circulation that in the morning has the wind blowing from the northeast and in the afternoon from the southeast. The TDs show that the air temperature diurnal cycle presents higher amplitude and the maximum temperature of the day is 3.2 degrees C higher than in NTDs. Another important factor found is the difference between moisture that is higher during TDs. In terms of precipitation, the TDs represent 40% of total of days analyzed and those days are responsible for more than 60% of the total rain accumulation during the summer, for instance 50% of the TDs had more than 15.5mm day(-1) while the NTDs had 4 mm day(-1). Moreover, the rainfall distribution shows that TDs have higher rainfall rate intensities and an afternoon precipitation maximum; while in the NTDs there isn`t a defined precipitation diurnal cycle. The wind and temperature fields from NCEP reanalysis concur with the local weather station and radiosonde observations. The NCEP composites show that TDs are controlled by synoptic circulation characterized by a pre-frontal situation, with a baroclinic zone situated at southern part of Sao Paulo. In terms of pollution, this study employed the AERONET data to obtain the main aerosol characteristics in the atmospheric column for both TDs and NTDs. The particle size distribution and particle volume size distribution have similar concentrations for both TDs and NTDs and present a similar fine and coarse mode mean radius. In respect to the atmospheric loading, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at different frequencies presented closed mean values for both TDs and NTDs that were statistically significant at 95% level. The spectral dependency of those values in conjunction with the Angstrom parameter reveal the higher concentration of the fine mode particles that are more likely to be hygroscopic and from urban areas. In summary, no significant aerosol effect could be found on the development of summer thunderstorms, suggesting the strong synoptic control by the baroclinic forcing for deep convective development. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B. V.
Resumo:
This work analyzes high-resolution precipitation data from satellite-derived rainfall estimates over South America, especially over the Amazon Basin. The goal is to examine whether satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used in hydrology and in the management of larger watersheds of South America. High spatial-temporal resolution precipitation estimates obtained with the CMORPH method serve this purpose while providing an additional hydrometeorological perspective on the convective regime over South America and its predictability. CMORPH rainfall estimates at 8-km spatial resolution for 2003 and 2004 were compared with available rain gauge measurements at daily, monthly, and yearly accumulation time scales. The results show the correlation between satellite-derived and gauge-measured precipitation increases with accumulation period from daily to monthly, especially during the rainy season. Time-longitude diagrams of CMORPH hourly rainfall show the genesis, strength, longevity, and phase speed of convective systems. Hourly rainfall analyses indicate that convection over the Amazon region is often more organized than previously thought, thus inferring that basin scale predictions of rainfall for hydrological and water management purposes have the potential to become more skillful. Flow estimates based on CMORPH and the rain gauge network are compared to long-term observed average flow. The results suggest this satellite-based rainfall estimation technique has considerable utility. Other statistics for monthly accumulations also suggest CMORPH can be an important source of rainfall information at smaller spatial scales where in situ observations are lacking.
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Endospermic legumes are abundant in tropical forests and their establishment is closely related to the mobilization of cell-wall storage polysaccharides. Endosperm cells also store large numbers of protein bodies that play an important role as a nitrogen reserve in this seed. In this work, a systems approach was adopted to evaluate some of the changes in carbohydrates and hormones during the development of seedlings of the rain forest tree Sesbania virgata during the period of establishment. Seeds imbibed abscisic acid (ABA), glucose and sucrose in an atmosphere of ethylene, and the effects of these compounds on the protein contents, alpha-galactosidase activity and endogenous production of ABA and ethylene by the seeds were observed. The presence of exogenous ABA retarded the degradation of storage protein in the endosperm and decreased alpha-galactosidase activity in the same tissue during galactomannan degradation, suggesting that ABA represses enzyme action. On the other hand, exogenous ethylene increased alpha-galactosidase activity in both the endosperm and testa during galactomannan degradation, suggesting an inducing effect of this hormone on the hydrolytic enzymes. Furthermore, the detection of endogenous ABA and ethylene production during the period of storage mobilization and the changes observed in the production of these endogenous hormones in the presence of glucose and sucrose, suggested a correlation between the signalling pathway of these hormones and the sugars. These findings suggest that ABA, ethylene and sugars play a role in the control of the hydrolytic enzyme activities in seeds of S. virgata, controlling the process of storage degradation. This is thought to ensure a balanced flow of the carbon and nitrogen for seedling development.
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Bird communities in tropical forests are strongly affected by both patch area and habitat edges. The fact that both effects are intrinsically confounded in space raises questions about how these two widely reported ecological patterns interact, and whether they are independent or simply different spatial manifestations of the same phenomenon. Moreover, do small patches of secondary forest, in landscapes where the most sensitive species have gone locally extinct, exhibit similar patterns to those previously observed in fragmented and continuous primary forests? We addressed these questions by testing edge-related differences in vegetation structure and bird community composition at 31 sites in fragmented and continuous landscapes in the imperilled Atlantic forest of Brazil. Over a two-year period, birds were captured with mist nets to a standardized effort of 680 net-hours at each site (similar to 22 000 net-hours resulting in 3381 captures from 114 species). We found that the bird community in patches of secondary forest was degraded in species composition compared to primary continuous forest, but still exhibited a strong response to edge effects. In fragmented secondary forests, edge and area effects also interacted, such that the magnitude of edge to interior differences on bird community composition declined markedly with patch size. The change in bird species composition between forest interiors and edges was similar to the change in community composition between large and small patches (because species had congruent responses to edge and area), but after controlling for edge effects community composition was no longer affected by patch area. Our results show that although secondary forests hold an impoverished bird community, ecological patterns such as area and edge effects are similar to those reported for primary forests. Our data provide further evidence that edge effects are the main drivers of area effects in fragmented landscapes.