A new maximum likelihood method for luminosity calibrations

A new statistical parallax method using the Maximum Likelihood principle is presented, allowing the simultaneous determination of a luminosity calibration, kinematic characteristics and spatial distribution of a given sample. This method has been developed for the exploitation of the Hipparcos data and presents several improvements with respect to the previous ones: the effects of the selection of the sample, the observational errors, the galactic rotation and the interstellar absorption are taken into account as an intrinsic part of the formulation (as opposed to external corrections). Furthermore, the method is able to identify and characterize physically distinct groups in inhomogeneous samples, thus avoiding biases due to unidentified components. Moreover, the implementation used by the authors is based on the extensive use of numerical methods, so avoiding the need for simplification of the equations and thus the bias they could introduce. Several examples of application using simulated samples are presented, to be followed by applications to real samples in forthcoming articles.

Relationships between soil class and nutritional status of coffee plantations

Farm planning requires an assessment of the soil class. Research suggest that the Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System (DRIS) has the capacity to evaluate the nutritional status of coffee plantations, regardless of environmental conditions. Additionally, the use of DRIS could reduce the costs for farm planning. This study evaluated the relationship between the soil class and nutritional status of coffee plants (Coffea canephora Pierre) using the Critical Level (CL) and DRIS methods, based on two multivariate statistical methods (discriminant and multidimensional scaling analyses). During three consecutive years, yield and foliar concentration of nutrients (N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, B, Zn, Mn, Fe and Cu) were obtained from coffee plantations cultivated in Espírito Santo state. Discriminant analysis showed that the soil class was an important factor determining the nutritional status of the coffee plants. The grouping separation by the CL method was not as effective as the DRIS one. The bidimensional analysis of Euclidean distances did not show the same relationship between plant nutritional status and soil class. Multidimensional scaling analysis by the CL method indicated that 93.3 % of the crops grouped into one cluster, whereas the DRIS method split the fields more evenly into three clusters. The DRIS method thus proved to be more consistent than the CL method for grouping coffee plantations by soil class.

Estimation of the extreme flash flood evolution in Barcelona county from 1351 to 2005

Every year, flash floods cause economic losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in the Catalonia region (NE Spain). Sometimes catastrophic damage and casualties occur. When a long term analysis of floods is undertaken, a question arises regarding the changing role of the vulnerability and the hazard in risk evolution. This paper sets out to give some information to deal with this question, on the basis of analysis of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona county (Catalonia) since the 14th century, as well as the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. With this objective, the identification and classification of historical floods, and characterisation of flash-floods among these, have been undertaken. Besides this, the main meteorological factors associated with recent flash floods in this city and neighbouring regions are well-known. On the other hand, the identification of rainfall trends that could explain the historical evolution of flood hazard occurrence in this city has been analysed. Finally, identification of the influence of urban development on the vulnerability to floods has been carried out. Barcelona city has been selected thanks to its long continuous data series (daily rainfall data series, since 1854; one of the longest rainfall rate series of Europe, since 1921) and for the accurate historical archive information that is available (since the Roman Empire for the urban evolution). The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern-age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850¿1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854¿2000) shows that no trend exists, although, due to changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has altered over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

Hydrologic Simulations of the Maquoketa River Watershed Using SWAT Working Paper 09-WP 49,June 2009

This paper describes the application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to the Maquoketa River watershed, located in northeast Iowa. The inputs to the model were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency’s geographic information/database system called Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS). Climatic data from six weather stations located in and around the watershed, and measured streamflow data from a U.S. Geological Survey gage station at the watershed outlet were used in the sensitivity analysis of SWAT model parameters as well as its calibration and validation for watershed hydrology and streamflow. A sensitivity analysis was performed using an influence coefficient method to evaluate surface runoff and base flow variations in response to changes in model input hydrologic parameters. The curve number, evaporation compensation factor, and soil available water capacity were found to be the most sensitive parameters among eight selected parameters when applying SWAT to the Maquoketa River watershed. Model calibration, facilitated by the sensitivity analysis, was performed for the period 1988 through 1993, and validation was performed for 1982 through 1987. The model performance was evaluated by well-established statistical methods and was found to explain at least 86% and 69% of the variability in the measured stream flow data for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. This initial hydrologic modeling analysis will facilitate future applications of SWAT to the Maquoketa River watershed for various watershed analysis, including water quality.

Cornea graft endothelial cells undergo apoptosis by way of an alternate (caspase-independent) pathway.

PURPOSE: To look for apoptosis pathways involved in corneal endothelial cell death during acute graft rejection and to evaluate the potential role of nitric oxide in this process. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Corneal buttons from Brown-Norway rats were transplanted into Lewis rat corneas. At different time intervals after transplantation, apoptosis was assessed by diamino-2-phenylindol staining and annexin-V binding on flat-mount corneas, and by terminal transferase dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL), caspase-3 dependent and leukocyte elastase inhibitor (LEI)/LDNase II caspase-independent pathways on sections. Inducible nitric oxide synthase (NOS-II) expression and the presence of nitrotyrosine were assayed by immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: Graft endothelial cells demonstrated nuclear fragmentation and LEI nuclear translocation, annexin-V binding, and membranes bleb formation. Apoptosis associated with caspase-3 activity or TUNEL-positive reaction was not observed at any time either in the graft or in the recipient corneal endothelial cells. During 14 days posttransplantation, the recipient corneal endothelial cells remained unaltered and their number unchanged in all studied corneas. NOS-II was expressed in infiltrating cells present within the graft. This expression was closely associated with the presence of nitrotyrosine in endothelial and infiltrating cells. CONCLUSION: During the time course of corneal graft rejection, graft endothelial cells undergo apoptosis. Apoptosis is caspase 3 independent and TUNEL negative and is, probably, carried out by an alternative pathway driven by an LEI/L-Dnase II. Peroxynitrite formation may be an additional mechanism for cell toxicity and programmed cell death of the graft endothelial cells during the rejection process in this model.

Increased carotid intima-media thickness in the absence of atherosclerotic plaques in an adult population with Fabry disease.

AIM: Fabry disease is considered primarily as a progressive small vessel disease, with ischaemic degenerative lesions involving the kidneys, brain and heart. Macrovascular involvement in male patients includes an accelerated wall hypertrophy of the radial artery and a thickening of the intima-media of the common carotid artery. The aim of this study is to evaluate the prevalence and severity of carotid artery atherosclerosis in hemizygous and heterozygous patients with Fabry disease, compared with a matched control population. METHODS: The common carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) of 53 patients with Fabry disease (24 men, 29 women) was measured by high-definition ultrasonography, and the presence or absence of atherosclerotic plaques reported. Results were compared with those of 120 age-matched healthy individuals (83 men, 37 women). RESULTS: The common carotid artery IMT was increased to the same extent in male and female patients with Fabry disease (706+/-211 microm and 749+/-395 microm, respectively) compared with that of the control population (614+/-113 microm). In the Fabry population, IMT did not correlate with either systolic blood pressure or with renal function (plasma creatinine). In the control population, only systolic blood pressure was positively and significantly correlated with IMT. Atherosclerotic plaques in the common carotid artery were not observed in any patient with Fabry disease, whereas 34% of the control population had carotid artery plaques, as evidenced by focal non-homogeneous intima-media thickening greater than 1.2 mm. CONCLUSION: This study presents evidence of a major increase in common carotid artery IMT, both in hemizygous and heterozygous patients with Fabry disease, in the absence of focal atherosclerotic plaques. These results suggest that the conduit arteries may be protected from atherosclerosis in Fabry disease.

Trimestralización y conciliación de magnitudes económicas : una ampliación del método Chow-Lin

Una de las herramientas estadísticas más importantes para el seguimiento y análisis de la evolución de la actividad económica a corto plazo es la disponibilidad de estimaciones de la evolución trimestral de los componentes del PIB, en lo que afecta tanto a la oferta como a la demanda. La necesidad de disponer de esta información con un retraso temporal reducido hace imprescindible la utilización de métodos de trimestralización que permitan desagregar la información anual a trimestral. El método más aplicado, puesto que permite resolver este problema de manera muy elegante bajo un enfoque estadístico de estimador óptimo, es el método de Chow-Lin. Pero este método no garantiza que las estimaciones trimestrales del PIB en lo que respecta a la oferta y a la demanda coincidan, haciendo necesaria la aplicación posterior de algún método de conciliación. En este trabajo se desarrolla una ampliación multivariante del método de Chow-Lin que permite resolver el problema de la estimación de los valores trimestrales de manera óptima, sujeta a un conjunto de restricciones. Una de las aplicaciones potenciales de este método, que hemos denominado método de Chow-Lin restringido, es precisamente la estimación conjunta de valores trimestrales para cada uno de los componentes del PIB en lo que afecta tanto a la demanda como a la oferta condicionada a que ambas estimaciones trimestrales del PIB sean iguales, evitando así la necesidad de aplicar posteriormente métodos de conciliación

On the use of IRMS in forensic science: proposals for a methodological approach

The flourishing number of publications on the use of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) in forensic science denotes the enthusiasm and the attraction generated by this technology. IRMS has demonstrated its potential to distinguish chemically identical compounds coming from different sources. Despite the numerous applications of IRMS to a wide range of forensic materials, its implementation in a forensic framework is less straightforward than it appears. In addition, each laboratory has developed its own strategy of analysis on calibration, sequence design, standards utilisation and data treatment without a clear consensus.Through the experience acquired from research undertaken in different forensic fields, we propose a methodological framework of the whole process using IRMS methods. We emphasize the importance of considering isotopic results as part of a whole approach, when applying this technology to a particular forensic issue. The process is divided into six different steps, which should be considered for a thoughtful and relevant application. The dissection of this process into fundamental steps, further detailed, enables a better understanding of the essential, though not exhaustive, factors that have to be considered in order to obtain results of quality and sufficiently robust to proceed to retrospective analyses or interlaboratory comparisons.

Trimestralización y conciliación de magnitudes económicas : una ampliación del método Chow-Lin

Una de las herramientas estadísticas más importantes para el seguimiento y análisis de la evolución de la actividad económica a corto plazo es la disponibilidad de estimaciones de la evolución trimestral de los componentes del PIB, en lo que afecta tanto a la oferta como a la demanda. La necesidad de disponer de esta información con un retraso temporal reducido hace imprescindible la utilización de métodos de trimestralización que permitan desagregar la información anual a trimestral. El método más aplicado, puesto que permite resolver este problema de manera muy elegante bajo un enfoque estadístico de estimador óptimo, es el método de Chow-Lin. Pero este método no garantiza que las estimaciones trimestrales del PIB en lo que respecta a la oferta y a la demanda coincidan, haciendo necesaria la aplicación posterior de algún método de conciliación. En este trabajo se desarrolla una ampliación multivariante del método de Chow-Lin que permite resolver el problema de la estimación de los valores trimestrales de manera óptima, sujeta a un conjunto de restricciones. Una de las aplicaciones potenciales de este método, que hemos denominado método de Chow-Lin restringido, es precisamente la estimación conjunta de valores trimestrales para cada uno de los componentes del PIB en lo que afecta tanto a la demanda como a la oferta condicionada a que ambas estimaciones trimestrales del PIB sean iguales, evitando así la necesidad de aplicar posteriormente métodos de conciliación

Estudi de l'estat de Salut autopercebut: Modelització de l'índex d'utilitat EQ-5D mitjançant un model tobit

Objective: Health status measures usually have an asymmetric distribution and present a highpercentage of respondents with the best possible score (ceiling effect), specially when they areassessed in the overall population. Different methods to model this type of variables have beenproposed that take into account the ceiling effect: the tobit models, the Censored Least AbsoluteDeviations (CLAD) models or the two-part models, among others. The objective of this workwas to describe the tobit model, and compare it with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model,that ignores the ceiling effect.Methods: Two different data sets have been used in order to compare both models: a) real datacomming from the European Study of Mental Disorders (ESEMeD), in order to model theEQ5D index, one of the measures of utilities most commonly used for the evaluation of healthstatus; and b) data obtained from simulation. Cross-validation was used to compare thepredicted values of the tobit model and the OLS models. The following estimators werecompared: the percentage of absolute error (R1), the percentage of squared error (R2), the MeanSquared Error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE). Different datasets werecreated for different values of the error variance and different percentages of individuals withceiling effect. The estimations of the coefficients, the percentage of explained variance and theplots of residuals versus predicted values obtained under each model were compared.Results: With regard to the results of the ESEMeD study, the predicted values obtained with theOLS model and those obtained with the tobit models were very similar. The regressioncoefficients of the linear model were consistently smaller than those from the tobit model. In thesimulation study, we observed that when the error variance was small (s=1), the tobit modelpresented unbiased estimations of the coefficients and accurate predicted values, specially whenthe percentage of individuals wiht the highest possible score was small. However, when theerrror variance was greater (s=10 or s=20), the percentage of explained variance for the tobitmodel and the predicted values were more similar to those obtained with an OLS model.Conclusions: The proportion of variability accounted for the models and the percentage ofindividuals with the highest possible score have an important effect in the performance of thetobit model in comparison with the linear model.

Anàlisi factorial confirmatòria per a variables categòriques: Aplicació al qüestionari de discapacitat WHODAS-II

Objective: To describe the methodology of Confirmatory Factor Analyis for categorical items and to apply this methodology to evaluate the factor structure and invariance of the WHO-Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS-II) questionnaire, developed by the World HealthOrganization.Methods: Data used for the analysis come from the European Study of Mental Disorders(ESEMeD), a cross-sectional interview to a representative sample of the general population of 6 european countries (n=8796). Respondents were administered a modified version of theWHODAS-II, that measures functional disability in the previous 30 days in 6 differentdimensions: Understanding and Communicating; Self-Care, Getting Around, Getting Along withOthers, Life Activities and Participation. The questionnaire includes two types of items: 22severity items (5 points likert) and 8 frequency items (continuous). An Exploratory factoranalysis (EFA) with promax rotation was conducted on a random 50% of the sample. Theremaining half of the sample was used to perform a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) inorder to compare three different models: (a) the model suggested by the results obtained in theEFA; (b) the theoretical model suggested by the WHO with 6 dimensions; (c) a reduced modelequivalent to model b where 4 of the frequency items are excluded. Moreover, a second orderfactor was also evaluated. Finally, a CFA with covariates was estimated in order to evaluatemeasurement invariance of the items between Mediterranean and non-mediterranean countries.Results: The solution that provided better results in the EFA was that containing 7 factors. Twoof the frequency items presented high factor loadings in the same factor, and one of thempresented factor loadings smaller than 0.3 with all the factors. With regard to the CFA, thereduced model (model c) presented the best goodness of fit results (CFI=0.992,TLI=0.996,RMSEA=0.024). The second order factor structure presented adequate goodness of fit (CFI=0.987,TLI=0.991, RMSEA=0.036). Measurement non-invariance was detected for one of the items of thequestionnaire (FD20 ¿ Embarrassment due to health problems).Conclusions: AFC confirmed the initial hypothesis about the factorial structure of the WHODAS-II in 6factors. The second order factor supports the existence of a global dimension of disability. The use of 4of the frequency items is not recommended in the scoring of the corresponding dimensions.

Spectral analysis of the luteinizing hormone in the blood samples

Generally, medicine books are concentrated almost exclusively in explaining methodology that analyzes fixed measures, measures done in a certain moment, nevertheless the evolution of the measurement and correct interpretation of the missed values are very important and sometimes can give the key information of the results obtained. Thus, the analysis of the temporary series and spectral analysis or analysis of the time series in the dominion of frequencies can be regarded as an appropriate tool for this kind of studies.In this work the frequency of the pulsating secretion of luteinizing hormone LH (thatregulates the fertile life of women) were analyzed in order to determine the existence of the significant frequencies obtained by analysis of Fourier. Detection of the frequencies, with which the pulsating secretion of the LH takes place, is a quite difficult question due topresence of the random errors in measures and samplings, i.e. that pulsating secretions of small amplitude are not detected and disregarded. In physiology it is accepted that cyclical patterns in the secretion of the LH exist and in the results of this research confirm this pattern and determine its frequency presented in the corresponded periodograms to each of studied cycle. The obtained results can be used as key pattern for future sampling frequencies in order to ¿catch¿ the significant picks of the luteinizing hormone and reflect on time forproductivity treatment of women.

Different PTH response to oral peptone load and oral calcium load in patients with normocalcemic primary hyperparathyroidism, primary hyperparathyroidism, and healthy subjects.

BACKGROUND: Normocalcemic primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT-N) is a condition that may have similar long-term implications to primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT); however, differential diagnosis and treatment for parathyroid disorders are not clearly defined. We investigated the effect of an oral peptone and an oral calcium load on calcium-regulating hormones in PHPT-N compared with PHPT and healthy controls to provide a new potential diagnostic tool. DESIGN: Case-control study. METHODS: We evaluated serum gastrin, PTH, ionized calcium, and phosphate responses to oral calcium (1 g) and peptone (10 g) load in 22 PHPT and 20 PHPT-N patients matched for PTH serum values. Moreover, 30 healthy subjects were enrolled as controls. In 12 patients for each group, we also performed the oral peptone test adding aluminum hydroxide (AH) to suppress phosphate absorption. RESULTS: In PHPT patients, PTH increased significantly 30 min after the oral peptone load, while no significant increase was found in PHPT-N and controls. After oral calcium load, PTH remained stable in PHPT while it decreased dramatically in PHPT-N patients, and ionized calcium increased significantly in each of the three groups. Peptones plus AH induced a blunted PTH increase in the three groups. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the marked difference in PTH response elicited by peptones in PHPT compared with PHPT-N, we suggest that the oral peptone test could be added to the diagnostic evaluation of PHPT patients. In case of absent response to peptones, patients should have their serum calcium levels assessed twice a year in accordance with recent guidelines.

Patient-perceived health-related quality of life during recovery after total hip arthroplasty – a 6-month follow-up study

Potilaiden käsitys terveyteen liittyvästä elämänlaadusta lonkan tekonivelleikkauksen jälkeisenä toipumisaikana – kuuden kuukauden seurantatutkimus Tässä kaksivaiheisessa seurantatutkimuksessa tarkasteltiin potilaiden käsitystä terveyteen liittyvästä elämänlaadusta lonkan tekonivelleikkauksen jälkeisenä toipumisaikana. Tutkimuksen ensimmäisessä vaiheessa tarkoituksena oli sekä kuvailla potilaiden kokemuksia potilaana olosta, saamastaan hoidosta ja terveyspalveluorganisaatiosta että analysoida aikaisempien tutkimusten perusteella leikkauksen tuloksia potilaan kannalta. Toisessa vaiheessa tarkoituksena oli arvioida potilaiden kokemaa elämänlaatua leikkauksen jälkeen, ja sitä vaikuttivatko primaaritulokset (fyysinen toimintakyky, kipu, ahdistus) tai taloudelliset seuraukset (potilaiden itsensämaksamat kustannukset, palvelujen käyttö) terveyteen liittyvään elämänlaatuun. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli löytää mahdolliset kriittiset ajankohdat tai tekijät, jotka saattavat hidastaa toipumista ja siten huonontaa potilaiden elämänlaatua. Tätä tietoa voidaan käyttää hoitotyössä kun suunnitellaan sopivaa hoitoa ja tukea toipumisajalle. Tutkimuksen ensimmäisessä vaiheessa primaarileikkaukseen tulevat potilaat (n = 17) kuvailivat teemahaastatteluissa kokemuksiaan kahdesti leikkauksen jälkeen. Haastatteluaineisto analysoitiin induktiivisella sisällönanalyysilla. Lisäksi 17 tutkimusartikkelista analysoitiin deduktiivisella sisällönanalyysilla leikkauksen tuloksia potilaalle, tuloksiin vaikuttavia tekijöitä ja käytetyt tutkimusmetodit. Toisessa vaiheessa primaari- tai revisioleikkaukseen tulevat potilaat (n = 100) arvioivat leikkauksen tuloksia kuuden kuukauden ajan leikkauksen jälkeen: terveyteen liittyvää elämänlaatua, primaarituloksia ja taloudellisia seurauksia. Aineisto kerättiin erilaisilla mittareilla: Sickness Impact Profile, Finnish Version, Stait-Trait Anxiety Inventory, ja Numeric Rating Scale. Lisäksi käytettiin tätä tutkimusta varten tehtyjä kyselylomakkeita: Fyysinen toimintakyky-mittari, Palvelujen käyttö-mittari ja Kustannusmittari. Tutkimuksen toiseen vaiheen tulokset analysoitiin tilastollisilla menetelmillä. Potilaiden terveyteen liittyvä elämänlaatu parani ja kipu lievittyi leikkauksen jälkeen ja fyysinen toimintakyky lisääntyi toipumisaikana. Positiivisista muutoksista huolimatta potilaat kokivat ahdistusta samassa määrin kuin ennen leikkaustakin. Palvelujen käyttö vaihteli toipumisajan kuluessa ja potilaiden maksamissa kustannuksissa oli suuria vaihteluita. Fyysisen toimintakyvyn lisääntyminen ja kivun lieveneminen paransivat terveyteen liittyvää elämänlaatua. Sen sijaan huonompi elämänlaatu toipumisaikana oli yhteydessä suurempaan palvelujen käyttöön, kun taas kustannuksilla ei ollut yhteyttä elämänlaatuun. Potilaiden ominaispiirteet tulisi ottaa enemmän huomioon suunniteltaessa sopivaa leikkauksenjälkeistä hoitoa ja tukea. Potilaat tarvitsevat yksilöllisiä ohjeita, sillä monet taustatekijät (esim. ikä, sukupuoli, preoperatiivinen kipu, siviilisääty, ja leikkaustyyppi) vaikuttavat toipumiseen.

Using step activity monitoring to assess ambulatory activity before and after total ankle arthroplasty : FM103

Introduction: The aim of this study is to compare the walking activity of a cohort of individuals before and after total ankle arthroplasty (TAA). Methods: Nineteen consecutive patients (ten males and nine females) with mean age of 58.72, selected for TAA between January and June 2006, were prospectively reviewed with the use of a dedicated ambulatory activity-monitoring device to assess their natural ambulatory activity. Patients were tested in the community for two weeks duration, one month prior to and at least eighteen months after surgery. The ambulatory parameters were assessed through measurement of the number of steps at different cadence, and the time spent walking at different walking paces. Data were analyzed by using specific statistical methods. Results: This study revealed a significant improvement in the number of steps walked at normal cadence (b = 331.63, p = .00) and significantly reduced at low cadence (b = -402.52, p = .00) and medium cadence (b = -386.29, p = .00), before and after TAA. However, there are no significant different between two phases of assessment in term of time spent walking. Conclusion: These quantitative data allow a clear comparative assessment of walking ability following TAR and demonstrates that this intervention improves patient's walking pace.